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Breaking down World Cup Qualifying- Who will be the top two from Group 16?
Artem Kohut celebrates a goal for the national team
LAKISKA, SOUTH ISLAND- It has been a wild ride so far. After a few subpar World Cup Qualifying performances from the Islander national team, Alexander Bumba has seemingly found the right combination, and has our small nation on the path towards our first ever World Cup Qualification. Of course, nothing is won, and nothing is guaranteed- this is one of the tightest groups in World Cup Qualifying, and with three games left for a bunch of solid teams, a whole bunch of things could happen. We could win the group, we could go to the playoff, we, after having been top of the table since Matchday 3, could miss out on the top two entirely and earn a one way ticket to the Cup of Harmony.
With only three games left in the campaign, it's clear who is competing for World Cup Qualifying berths in this group. There are four teams in serious competition for the automatic spot and the playoff spot. But the question is- who will get them? We're going to analyzers the teams in positions 1-4 right now, their remaining games, and our prediction in what we believe to be the most exciting World Cup Qualifying group remaining.
Busoga Islands
Table Position: First. Tiebreakers: Pasarga(overall GD), Ethane(overall GD), Blouman Empire(H2H). Remaining game(prior result against opponent): West Zirconia(0-0 home draw), Ancherion(2-2 away draw), Freeport Isles(2-1 home win)
In a sense, we've never had a better opportunity than this one to qualify directly. Not only are the playoffs well within reach- but we can indeed go out here and win this group. There are two teams with 30 points in the group right now, and that would be us alongside the Blouman Empire. We're tied at the top of the table, but since we beat the Empire twice, including a 4-1 blowout win on Matchday 12, we hold the head to head tiebreaker over them now.
And think of our last three remaining opponents. None of the teams ranked ahead of us. All 3 of our remaining opponents are already eliminated from qualifying for World Cup 88. So on paper, that puts us in a great position. But then, of course, these games are not played on paper. They are played on the pitch. So while we have a great chance, there is one thing that is worrying- our prior performances against our three remaining opponents.
WE didn't look great against any of them. West Zirconia may be in last place in the group, but we struggled to a 0-0 home draw against them last time. Can we create opportunities in the away tie? And more importantly- can we take them? These type of road games make or break a World Cup Qualification campaign, and it's imperative we go and get three points in Rushmore. They're scrappy and resourceful. It won't be easy. But if you want to make the World Cup, those are the types of games that absolutely must be won.
And then, of course, the final home game of the campaign- Ancherion. We struggled hard in Ancherion on Matchday 8, being quite fortunate to earn a point. We're going to have to do much better than that. That game has been moved to Lakiska City Cricket Park to accomodate the huge demand for tickets. Busoga fans will be rocking. Birla will be there. The President will be there. Can we restructure a gameplan that they punctured so dearly at their own house, and find a winning strategy?
As for the Freeport Isles. There's a lot of history there. Remember- at our Baptism of Fire, they knocked us out. We both beat each other in the group stages of our home soil AOCAF. But if we're in a position to qualify for Matchday 18, expect a massive number of Busogan fans to make the short trip across the water.
Blouman Empire
Table Position: Second. Tiebreakers: Ethane(overall GD). Remaining game(prior result against opponent): St. Trinians(0-3 home loss), Pasarga(2-2 away draw), Ethane(3-3 home draw)
The Blouman Empire are level with Busoga on points, but behind on the head to head tiebreaker with our own nation. Therefore, they are second. But they, like our own country, control their own destiny- win their last three games, and they can finish no worse than second.
Unfortunately for them, they probably have the hardest remaining schedule of any team. St. Trinians are their first opponent. Not only is St. Trinians still alive, but St. Trinians blew out the Blouman Empire in the Empire. And then, of course, this side ends the campaign against the surging top two ranked teams in the group- a red hot Pasarga, and a red hot Ethane.
It's a brutal schedule ending. But that toughness of schedule makes us think, while they are in a strong position right now, it is unlikely that they will be able to produce the form required over their final three games of the campaign to finish in a top two spot in this group.
Pasarga
Table Position: Third. Tiebreakers: St. Trinians(H2H). Remaining game(prior result against opponent): Ethane(2-4 home loss), Blouman Empire(2-2 home draw), Gatchingerrak Union(0-1 away loss)
It's been an up and down campaign for the Wanderers, who have already fired their manager. And yet- this is a team chalk full of talent, capable of getting hot at any time. And look at what they have done. Despite all their struggles, they've pulled together enough wins to sit, while not in a qualifying position, just two points behind pole position. Remember- it doesn't really matter where you are in the standings during the campaign, as long as you are top two after MD18.
They have some massive games looming, however. One of the themes here- outside of Busoga, the four sides who are still alive will see a lot of each other over the final three matchdays. Pasarga opens these final three matchdays with a visit to Ethane that could go a long way in deciding which one of those two will be seriously competitive for a spot in the World Cup Finals. A lot of travelling though- away games to Ethane and the Blouman Empire are not easy.
But if there's any team capable of navigating those two tough games, back to back, it is Pasarga. While they should easily dispatch of the Gatchingerrak Union on Matchday 18, it will be those two away games that will do the most to determine whether that match has World Cup stakes, or if it is simply a warmup match for the Cup of Harmony.
Ethane
Table Position: Fourth. Tiebreakers: Pasarga(H2H). Remaining game(prior result against opponent): Pasarga(4-2 away win), West Zirconia(4-4 home draw), Blouman Empire(3-3 away draw)
Two of their final 3 games at home. For a team that has looked really out of sorts for the entirety of the campaign, they've shown enough flashes to find themselves in a decent position. Yes, they are more than game out with only three games remaining, being 4 points outside of the top two. But the toughness of their remaining schedule, with home games remaining against both Pasarga and the Blouman Empire, are both a blessing and a curse.
They have the ability themselves to take points off of two teams in front of them, and to do so against both on their home field. The World Cup 87 co-hosts will have their hands full, however. They resurrected their campaign on the last matchday, scoring a late winner in Lakiska against the Busoga Islands to ensure they take all three points. But yet- although they've beaten Pasarga once, does not mean they can do so again. It's Pasarga. Former World Cup champions. Original Rushmori nation.
Can they make the climb? The world Cup may look out of reach, but a second win against Pasarga would put qualifying right back on the table. This is indeed their moment. Can they get back to the World Cup Finals?
St. Trinians
Table Position: Fifth. Tiebreakers: Busoga Islands(H2H). Remaining game(prior result against opponent): Blouman Empire(3-0 away win), Gatchingerrak Union(1-1 home draw), Grandistania(4-5 away loss)
They probably have the next easiest schedule remaining of the five teams who are alive. But they are also in the most dire position- 5 points off the pace. Their game against the Blouman Empire on Matchday 16 is exactly what it looks to be- an elimination game.
Fortunately for St. Trinians, they are capable of taking 9 points out of a remaining 9. Are they consistent enough, talented enough, to do so? Maybe, maybe not. But the schedule surely allows for it. Blouman Empire is second in the table, but remember, St. Trinians already beat them 3-0. The final two opponents are simply not that good, but St. Trinians did not beat either of them. To finish in the top two, St. Trinians likely needs 9 points from 9, or at least 7 while beating the Blouman Empire, and a lot of help.
It's been a very encouraging campaign if you are a fan of their national team. World Cup 89, maybe? But they will be able to go to the Cup of Harmony most likely with their heads held high.
Moneyline Odds Guide
Betting Odds- Finish first in World Cup Qualifying Group 16
Pasarga: +25
Busoga Islands: +25
Blouman Empire: +75
Ethane: +175
St. Trinians: +750
Betting Odds- Finish Top 2 in World Cup Qualifying Group 16(whether nation finishes first or second is irrelevant)
Busoga Islands: -50
Pasarga: -25
Blouman Empire: +25
Ethane: +50
St. Trinians: +400
Betting Odds- Nation to finish World Cup Qualifying with the most points
Turori: -100
Eura: +100
Farfadillis: +125
Betting Odds- Parlay, odds of both Banija and Busoga each getting 6 points across Matchdays 16 and 17
Parlay: +550