
It has been a while, but we're back! Your favourite - one of your favourite - or at least in your top 30 - football data analysts in the business. And this time we've tried to apply some order to chaos once more, working together with data helpfully provided by the folks at Jarongi's Fantasy World Cup Qualification division. Jarongi, for if you want to get yourself closer to the action! Daily odds and season-long bets available.
If you haven't checked out the Fantasy in a while, the core gameplay has been the same for about fifteen cycles now - pick a team from each group and get points if they win, more points if they win big, and lose points if they lose big - but quietly the group behind the game has been offering more insight in results and trends. We still have the regular stuff - the Polar Islandstates are once again fan-favourites with a huge majority picking them from Group 3 - but we can compare a team's output to their pot's output now, to see if a squad stacks up to teams of similar quality. That tells us that Kronbia, pot 6, is picking up well over a point per game more than the rest of their pot. Edsmontik come close to that at 0.99 points per game more than the rest of pot 6. Crpostran - pot 3 - is outperforming that cohort by nearly as much as Kronbia, also getting a full point and a bit more than the average pot 3 team.
Pot 3 is a pot of extremes, as you'd imagine: it's full of teams that are really pushing to qualify, not in the least because of the 48-team format, and teams that have been trying for a while and are now running out of their current generation of players, failing to adapt, and losing because of it. We find more Pot 3 teams in the 'fantasy points minus pot fantasy points' top group than any other pot, with Crpostran, Tero al Disco, Kamijiro, Sargossa, and Sajnur in the top 20. That means that other teams from the pot must bring down the average: Abanhfleft (-1.35), the US of Nova Calania (-1.07), TJUN-ia, the Ochre Islands, and Delaclava are all having a hellish campaign.
If you're wondering what team's the worst when it compares to their pot: it shouldn't be too much of a surprise, but the United Mandaran States are dead last at -1.63 points per game compared to the rest of pot 1. HUElavia's not much better off - in a field of 48, they might actually be left out.
In more boring stats, Farfadillis, Saint Eleanor, and Delte have picked up the most Fantasy Points, but it's Sangti and the Filindo Isles, the Ko-orenite Constellation, HOT-DAMN, Loch Dearg, Langenia, Panay Islands and Guimaras, and Kanzlia who have offered the most return of investment, all picking up a hefty amount of points for their modest KPB cost. Crpostran, StrayaRoos, Josifovo, Mertagne, and Farfadillis have all won the most games by a big margin (3) while Delte and Sargossa are the only authors of multiple 5+-margin beatdowns (two each) and the Holy Empire combine the two categories with two 'regular' big wins (by 3+ goals) and one huge win (by 5+). Meanwhile, those who picked Carbannog or The Fortem will likely resent their choices, as both have already lost by three or more goals four (!!) times.
Because we're still a Ko-orenite outlet, we have to talk about our Dragonflies a bit: we're still pretty good all things considered, but compared to our pot-mates - and especially as a team ranked in the top 10 in the multiverse - it's not all that great. With only one big win (then again, who looks to the Dragonflies for big wins??) and a few losses, we're at 2.13 FP per match, tied for 42nd overall. As for actual results, there was a great start with a 4-0 win over the Union of the Burnt Proclamation but it was loss-win-loss after that, against Avisora (remember that one). The team did string together two wins, over Sargossa and Srednjaci, then a Juvencus draw, and a narrow 2-3 away win at Cattstan, to let the Dragonflies enter the halfway break at 5-1-2 (2 points per game), a four-game non-losing streak, and a good position for the second half. With the two points per game this campaign is in our worst 33% of qualification attempts - but World Cup 89's sits even lower than this one and we all know what happened there. Aside from 89, the worst third is full of late 50s, early 60s, and late 70s campaigns were we weren't exactly in contention.
Now for the actual new stuff. We lost to Avisora, one of our worse losses in the 90s. But how bad was it? To answer that, we came up with a formula for upsets. It has to do a few things:
1) A low ranked nation beats or ties a better ranked nation;
2) The further apart their ranks, the bigger the upset;
3) An upset away from home is even better;
4) An upset draw is funny, an upset win is funnier, but an upset win by multiple goals is the funniest.
So, factoring in all four aspects, we have an Upset Coefficient. It's proper science. It's got a methodology. It's flawless.
And Avisora 1–0 Ko-oren comes in at... second. An Upset Coefficient of 62.19, it's one of two Truly Bad Results of the cycle so far, all because Avisora has a KPB of 1.00 in pot 7 (we have 38.87 in pot 1), it's a win rather than a draw, but at least it wasn't by multiple goals and the Dragonflies saved some (but not a lot of) face for it not being in Ko-oren at the very least. So which result is in first? That'd be Indusse 3–5 HOT-DAMN, where HOT-DAMN 1) wins, 2) by two goals, 3) away from home, 4) while being unranked versus a pretty good Pot 2 team. Ouch. And still that only comes in at 67.35 as Indusse's KPB is just over half of ours - KPB gets a little crazy up near the top, it's a good thing the Squishening will happen through the World Rankings (name is still a Work in Progress, the Scientists from Audioslavia and Farfadillis ensure me).
Third in the list at 'only' a mild 47.34 is Xanneria's home loss to Hetaru, and following that it's another HOT-DAMN hot mess as they tied Kelssek 3-3 away (Kelssek being third in the Multiverse) for 46.3. It was a draw, not a win, but it was away from home, and the KPB difference could not be bigger. Also bad: Sylestone failing to score at home versus Aquitayne, East Leaf getting a point versus Valanora, and Kronbia beating Delte 3-2. From there on the upsets get milder and milder, but Srubnaya culture 5–2 Darmen is worth mentioning as Darmen's only a pot 5 team - but it's the three-goal disparity that puts this one in the top 10 for now.
Some teams appear multiple times. HOT-DAMN being the first, the United Mandaran States being second (1-0 loss to Kanzlia, 1-1 versus Burikinia). HUElavia suffered two upsets away from home (West Vdara 1-0, Vaishnavaria 1-1). Juvencus then shows up in the next two spots, single-handedly keeping the Dragonflies in a qualifying spot, with their two Group two two-two draws against Cattstan and the Union of the Burnt Proclamation. Effectively, every Pot 1 or 2 team loss to a pot 5 or worse nation is going to pop up here in some form or another. And no doubt that the second half of qualifying - which we're not at for all teams, Pot 1 has a bye though - will add a fair few more as some of the bad teams hit their stride while some of the good teams falter and fade.
Oh, and bet Jarongi, don't forget them. Bookmakers need to put food on the table too. And let's be honest, don't you agree they deserve sustenance more than you?







































