6th July 2023
TAMAKI
Ngaire Roimati has announced that she will not contest this month's THM leadership election, which in effect means that she is conceding her position as the Mangai o Tangata [Prime Minister].
Ngaire Roimati has announced that she will step down as Prime Minister after less than two years in the role
The surprise announcement came at 11pm, following a 'tense' meeting between Roimati and the board of directors of Tikanga Herekore Manapori [the Free Democratic Party], which is due to hold its annual party conference on July 22nd.
"When I came to office, I promised that I would balance the budget, fight corruption and re-open Tangatarehua to the world and I am proud to say I have done just that," she told reporters in a hastily arranged press conference last night. "The decisions I have taken were not easy and seldom popular, but they were the right ones to build a foundation upon which stable future growth can occur.
"However - I accept that I may not be the correct person to lead THM to victory in the 2024 election and as such I will not be standing for the party presidency at this year's party conference. It has been an honour to serve as the Mangai o Tangata and I pledge my full support to whichever candidate the party chooses to succeed me."
Roimati led THM to a narrow election victory in 2021 but has been dogged by low approval ratings ever since, with her personal approval rating never rising above 45% as she has grappled with a massive economic crisis, fuel shortages and the end of the pandemic.
Publicly, Roimati has drawn criticism for her plan to introduce fees for tertiary education, which critics have said will make tertiary education unobtainable to those from lower socioeconomic backgrounds and will "put Tangatarehua on the path to western-style ignorance and materialism".
However it is within her own party that Roimati's unpopularity has become fatal, with many THM backbenchers reportedly 'furious' that tax cuts promised in the 2021 election have not yet come to fruition - not only that, but Roimati controversially increased GST to plug a budget deficit.
The final nail in the coffin seems to come in the form of a recent poll putting THM at only 37% of public support, meaning that if an election were held today it would easily be won by the opposition.
One poll suggested that Atawhai [the Conservative Party], THM's erstwhile coalition partners could form the next government on its own while every poll since the beginning of 2023 has indicated that a four party coalition of the political left (including Atawhai, the Right Socialist Party, the Left Socialist Party and the Communist Party] would 'easily' defeat THM - even if THM forms a coalition with the right-wing populist Whakapaipai [Libertarian] Party, who have seen a recent surge in support on the back of right-wing voters disaffected by the current direction of THM.
Although Tangatarehua is not due to hold an election until October 2024 at the latest, these poll numbers have caused alarm for THM, which bills itself as the 'natural party of government' in Tangatarehua, having lost government only twice since 1982.
Under party rules, whoever is president of the party will become the Mangai o Tangata whenever THM holds a parliamentary majority.
What is the Mangai o Tangata?
The Mangai o Tangata [literally "Representative of the People"] is often translated into English as "Prime Minister" although the meaning is not actually the same as in most parliamentary systems and they are not actually the head of the entire government.
The Mangai o Tangata is head of the legislative branch of government and holds a position equivalent to both a Speaker of the Parliament and a Minister of Finance/Chancellor of the Exchequer - becoming the head of both Te Whare of Mangai [the House of Representatives] and Te Tari o Taonga [Treasury].
The position is one of only three in the Kaiwhakahaere [Imperial Cabinet], alongside the Rangatira [who controls Te Tari o Kawanatanga/the Department of State - the executive branch] and the Nui Tohunga [High Priest/Chief Justice, who controls Te Tari o Tikanga Wairua/the Department of the Spiritual - the judicial branch] and is the most powerful position that a commoner can accede to in Tangatarehua.
Although the Prime Minister is not actually the head of government in terms of executive authority, they wield considerable power with the ability to control and set the legislative agenda and to control and write the national budget.
The position is contingent on the continued confidence of the House of Representatives and if a Prime Minister loses confidence of the House and no other MR [Mangai Rohe - member of parliament] can gain the support of the majority of the house then a snap election is held.
Who will replace Ngaire Roimati?
No candidates have put their names forward at this stage, but it is worth discussing the important role that factions play during any THM leadership election.
Tikanga Herekore Manapori is a big-tent centre to centre-right political party that, unlike the opposition parties, does not follow a clear ideological position. While officially the party claims 'liberalism' as its ideology, liberalism takes many forms and encompasses positions from the political centre-left all the way to the hard right - and this diversity of ideology is found within THM's membership too.
As such, factional infighting within THM can be brutal and is often more consequential for Tangatarehua than a general election given THM's track record for dominating elections.
Most factions have their own names, logos, flags and leaders and represent varying competing ideologies within the party - although once a faction has obtained the party presidency, all other factions and factional leaders by convention will immediately pledge their support for the new president or risk losing their seat or place on the party seat. Leaving THM is seldom an option for most MRs due to the prohibitive cost of running for office in Tangatarehua (the deposit to run for a single constituency is the equivalent of US$500,000 and is not returned unless a candidate gains at least 5% of the vote).
The five main factions within THM are:
Ropu Ripera ("The Liberal Group")
- Supported by the Huinga Pakini Nui [Association of Business], most major corporations and the wealthy, including a large section of the nobility.
- It advocates neoliberalism and laissez-faire economics. Some members have advocated for a flat tax.
- Pro immigration, free trade and globalisation. Supports lowering taxes for high income earners and corporations.
- Unlike the right-wing libertarian Whakapaipai Party, members of this faction are committed to pacifism and the existing ban on firearms.
- Previous Prime Ministers from this faction have included Petera Aroha (1992-1993), Mere Anaru (1998-2000) and Timoti Ruiha (2009 - 2015)
Hui o te Manapori ("Gathering for Democracy")
- Supported by members of the bureaucracy, doctors, teachers and other educated white collar workers.
- Generally considered the most 'centrist' faction, advocating for fiscal conservatism but still defending the social safety net.
- Tends toward conservative liberalism and sometimes national liberalism, labels themselves as classical liberals.
- Moderate on most social issues, such as immigration and LGBT rights
- Current Prime Minister Ngaire Roimati is a member of this faction, meaning they are unlikely to succeed in the upcoming leadership election
Ropu Kiri ("Group for Kiri")
- Founded by supporters of Hemi Kiri, Tangatarehua's first democratically elected Prime Minister
- Strong support for the Rehuan model, also known as "Kiriism".
- Supports ordoliberalism, Keynesian economics, dirigisme and even corporatism. Has a reputation for pork barrel politics.
- Socially conservative: Opposed to widespread immigration, LGBT rights or other disruptions to traditions.
- Officially pro free trade but have become more protectionist in recent years
- Supported by farmers, small businesses and blue collar workers
- Past Prime Ministers include Hemi Kiri [1982 - 1987] and Wiremu Ngaio -1993 - 1998]
Te Reo Ahu Whakamua ("Progressive Voice")
- By far the most left-leaning faction of THM
- Supports continued free education to tertiary level, free healthcare and the social safety net
- Strongly opposed to privatisation
- Very socially liberal, supporting expanded rights for immigrants, taurekareka and the LGBT community. Also supports legalising abortion.
- Supported primarily by younger members of THM as well as minority groups. Faction has lost influence as many members have defected to the Matau Hapori [the Right Socialist Party].
- Former Prime Minister Huhana Tama [1987 - 1992] was a member and the founder of this faction.
Mana Motuhake ("Independence")
- A self-described "national liberal" faction supporting protectionism and opposing immigration
- Generally considered the most far right faction, supports economic nationalism and interventionism.
- Supports abolishing Article IV and re-establishing the military as well as foreign policy isolationism.
- Generally libertarian on most social issues, with some members even supporting private gun ownership. Pro LGBT.
- Strong agrarian focus - founded by a group of politicians from rural areas and supported mainly by farmers
How will the vote be decided?
A candidate must have the support of at least 20 MRs in order to make it onto the ballot. Once the candidates have been determined, the election will take place in a two-round system: All 173 THM MRs will vote, as will all 378,815 paid-up THM party members plus THM's 21 national board of directors (one for each of Tangatarehua's 21 prefectures).
A total of 415 points will be available - each MR vote is worth one point, a board director vote is worth two points while the remaining 200 points will be distributed proportionately according to the way the membership voted.
For example if Candidate A receives the support of 100 MRs, 55% of the members and 7 directors, she will receive 224 points. The first candidate to win more than 208 points will become party president (and therefore, Prime Minister), however if no majority is reached in the first round then a run-off election between the top two candidates will be run.
The winner is expected to be announced on Sunday July 23rd.
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