Aussie Rules World Cup V - Signups/Host Bids (CLOSED)

[Ko-oren]

As a little experiment:

Max rank 120

*                         Pld      W     D     L      PF     PA     PD     Pts 
1 Sarzonia               1000    618     8   374  105411  89069 +16342    2488
2 Baggieland             1000    374     8   618   89069 105411 −16342    1512

Max rank 20

*                         Pld      W     D     L      PF     PA     PD     Pts 
1 Sarzonia               1000    609     5   386  105435  91013 +14422    2446
2 Baggieland             1000    386     5   609   91013 105435 −14422    1554

So adjusting max rank doesn't seem to do anything. Mind you that this is between the top 2 ranked teams. If we have #1 Sarzonia play #5 Ko-oren, we get:

*                         Pld      W     D     L      PF     PA     PD     Pts 
1 Sarzonia               1000    760     3   237  114321  81195 +33126    3046
2 Ko-oren                1000    237     3   760   81195 114321 −33126     954

Translating that to a 75%-25% split with me having about half of Sarzonia's rank. Having Sarz play Krieg (#9, at about a quarter of Sarzonia's rank):

*                         Pld      W     D     L      PF     PA     PD     Pts 
1 Sarzonia               1000    939     0    61  134257  63932 +70325    3756
2 Kriegiersien           1000     61     0   939   63932 134257 −70325     244

and we get over 90% chance.

It seems like it doesn't have to do with the rank ratio between teams. You'd expect Ko vs Krieg to be similar to Ko vs Sarzonia (both matchups involving teams that have twice as much rank as the other team), but with Ko-oren vs Krieg we get:

*                         Pld      W     D     L      PF     PA     PD     Pts 
1 Ko-oren                1000    831     5   164  120246  76365 +43881    3334
2 Kriegiersien           1000    164     5   831   76365 120246 −43881     666

(very similar tables for max rank 20 and max rank 120).

This means that Krieg has to seriously out-RP me to even stand a chance, but seeing as most of the top 5-10 all RP actively, it doesn't seem like the scales will tip any time soon. This makes it look like the tournament is pretty much played on paper until the quarterfinals (final 8), and even then, whoever draws Sarzonia in that round is basically doomed.

I'm not a veteran host or an xkoranate expert, but to me it feels like we have to either drastically increase RP bonus or figure something else out.

---

But I just want to add my voice to the points already raised by Syle and Ko-oren. Especially that bit about all bonus points getting reset to MD1. All points must be accumulative, from pre-tournament points already in the bank to rosters and RPs.

What do you mean by that?

[Kommar]

It

[StrayaRoos]

This means that Krieg has to seriously out-RP me to even stand a chance, but seeing as most of the top 5-10 all RP actively, it doesn't seem like the scales will tip any time soon. This makes it look like the tournament is pretty much played on paper until the quarterfinals (final 8 ), and even then, whoever draws Sarzonia in that round is basically doomed.

I'm not a veteran host or an xkoranate expert, but to me it feels like we have to either drastically increase RP bonus or figure something else out.

i have 2 ideas to counter this
first is Removing the RP Bonus Decay
and Second is modifying the knockout rounds to be based on the AFL/NRL Finals

---

But I just want to add my voice to the points already raised by Syle and Ko-oren. Especially that bit about all bonus points getting reset to MD1. All points must be accumulative, from pre-tournament points already in the bank to rosters and RPs.

I was referring to a one time scorinator error,not a plan i had for RP Bonus

[Baggieland]

All points must be accumulative, from pre-tournament points already in the bank to rosters and RPs.


What do you mean by that?

I mean all points must be accumulative, not getting reset each MD.

[Sylestone]

With the bidding deadline having passed a little over three hours ago, it's time to open host voting! There are two options.

Vote for the StrayaRoos bid
Re-open bidding

Please send all votes to this account by the 9th of July at 11:59am AEST (1:59am UTC). In the case of a tie, my vote will be the deciding factor. Every participating nation, save the bidders, may vote.

[Sylestone]

I know host voting is open, but an idea I came up with could be to adjust the increase the ranks by a set amount and go from there?

In my example, the rank of all teams could be increased by 15 in xkoranate. However, the minimum rank remains at 0 and the maximum rank is increased to whatever is necessary. That way, the ranks will still hold the same range, but it will increase the volatility of results.

Here is an example between Sarzonia (max rank) and an unranked team using what has been used in the past.

*                         Pld      W     D     L      PF     PA     PD     Pts 
1 Sarzonia               1000    997     0     3  157100  38675 +118425    3988
2 Unranked               1000      3     0   997   38675 157100 −118425      12

Not ideal.

Meanwhile, Sarzonia's rank has been increased to 32.143 (rather than 17.143) and the unranked team's rank has been increased to 15 (same scale factor).

*                         Pld      W     D     L      PF     PA     PD     Pts 
1 Sarzonia               1000    808     3   189  119670  76720 +42950    3238
2 Unranked               1000    189     3   808   76720 119670 −42950     762

Much better.


However, all this does is brings down the top few teams. Although it's a step in the right direction, we still need to be incentivising RPing. I would appreciate it if the bidder could take both of these things (whether they wish to use rank adjustments as well as an assurance that RP bonus will also be gracious) into account and indicate what they wish to do in the bid itself, without the need to be too specific.

[StrayaRoos]

Although it's a step in the right direction, we still need to be incentivising RPing. I would appreciate it if the bidder could take both of these things (whether they wish to use rank adjustments as well as an assurance that RP bonus will also be gracious) into account and indicate what they wish to do in the bid itself, without the need to be too specific.

First i do want to confirm rank adjustments will be used
Second,RP Bonus will not decay,and will be sizeable compared to rank

[Baggieland]

In my example, the rank of all teams could be increased by 15 in xkoranate. However, the minimum rank remains at 0 and the maximum rank is increased to whatever is necessary. That way, the ranks will still hold the same range, but it will increase the volatility of results.

Here is an example between Sarzonia (max rank) and an unranked team using what has been used in the past.
* Pld W D L PF PA PD Pts
1 Sarzonia 1000 997 0 3 157100 38675 +118425 3988
2 Unranked 1000 3 0 997 38675 157100 −118425 12

Not ideal.

Meanwhile, Sarzonia's rank has been increased to 32.143 (rather than 17.143) and the unranked team's rank has been increased to 15 (same scale factor).
* Pld W D L PF PA PD Pts
1 Sarzonia 1000 808 3 189 119670 76720 +42950 3238
2 Unranked 1000 189 3 808 76720 119670 −42950 762

Much better.


However, all this does is brings down the top few teams. Although it's a step in the right direction, we still need to be incentivising RPing. I would appreciate it if the bidder could take both of these things (whether they wish to use rank adjustments as well as an assurance that RP bonus will also be gracious) into account and indicate what they wish to do in the bid itself, without the need to be too specific.

I too have just had a play around on my scorinator, and it does appear that by adding 15 to each and every nation does produce a more interesting set results compared to the current system where everyone can already predict the four semi finalists (that being the nations currently ranked 1 - 4!).

I did myself against Sarzonia, where Sarzonia triumphed 57% of the time (compared to the current 75% he holds over me). I also did myself against an unranked team, where I triumphed 73% of the time, again much better than the current almost 100% I would have held over a newcomer. I do believe this is the way to go.

[Ko-oren]

Although it's a step in the right direction, we still need to be incentivising RPing. I would appreciate it if the bidder could take both of these things (whether they wish to use rank adjustments as well as an assurance that RP bonus will also be gracious) into account and indicate what they wish to do in the bid itself, without the need to be too specific.

First i do want to confirm rank adjustments will be used
Second,RP Bonus will not decay,and will be sizeable compared to rank

Before I vote, can you say exactly what adjustments there will be?

[StrayaRoos]

First i do want to confirm rank adjustments will be used
Second,RP Bonus will not decay,and will be sizeable compared to rank

Before I vote, can you say exactly what adjustments there will be?

Every participants wil have the 15 point rank addition syle suggested

[Baggieland]

First i do want to confirm rank adjustments will be used

I assume you mean using the +15 formula first suggested by Sylestone.

Second,RP Bonus will not decay

Good.

will be sizeable compared to rank

What do you mean by this?
If Sarzonia RPs, you will give him maximum RP bonus, but if an unranked team RPs, they don't get the maximum? Please clarify your intention here.

[Sylestone]

Friendly reminder that the voting deadline is in 25 hours time and that anyone participating, save the bidder, may vote. I've only received four ballots so far.

[Ko-oren]

I just wanted to say that I would have asked these questions regardless of who would bid. I didn't want to make StrayaRoos' job more difficult, so if it ever came across as grilling, I'm sorry. Either way, I'm glad we're having this discussion: a young (NSS-wise) sport will go through these things, and I'm happy we're mostly on the same page as how to tackle it (at least, as far as people who posted since the bid post go)

[Sylestone]

The votes are in! They are as follows.

StrayaRoos: 3 votes
Re-open bidding: 1 vote

Therefore, the ARWC V is handed over to StrayaRoos. Congratulations!

[StrayaRoos]

first of all,thank you for trusting me to run this tournament
second I'm going to close signups now
MD1 will be in around 48 hours time

[Sylestone]

second I'm going to close signups now

The OP has been adjusted to accommodate this.

MD1 will be in around 48 hours time

I don't mean to be a pain, but is there any reason for why this is such a short turnaround time for rosters and pre-MD1 roleplays? Usually, hosts wait at least 4-5 days from the posting of the everything thread as that gives people time to roster, while also providing themselves with time to produce adequate IC info.

[Alice Bay]

For the next cut-offs, I'd like to see a little bit more of clarifying, please. I mean, It's still July 11 in some parts of the world.