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by Dowaesk » Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:10 am
Hakinda Herseyi Duymak istiyorum wrote:What do you think about the Syrian Democratic People's Party ? If there was a party that defended the rights of Baathist social-liberal minorities and supported social democracy and perlementerism against the Assad administration, what would its counterpart in Syria be ?(Image)
by Major-Tom » Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:17 am
Theriok wrote:Obama should have been much aggressive against Assad. The only solace we can take now is that Assad will be more careful before gunning people down so as to avoid a repeat of this disaster.
by Theriok » Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:26 am
Major-Tom wrote:Theriok wrote:Obama should have been much aggressive against Assad. The only solace we can take now is that Assad will be more careful before gunning people down so as to avoid a repeat of this disaster.
Assad is a colossal prick, but Obama's hands were effectively tied. If he had been more aggressive against Assad (and he already took a hawkish stance), he ran the triple risk of both pissing off Russia to the point of no-return, sinking the Iran deal, and allowing a power vacuum to further cement itself, potentially allowing for radical Islamist groups to find a way to power in Syria.
As much as Obama's foreign policy deserves critiques, he did quite alright in Syria.
by Nakena » Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:28 am
Theriok wrote:Major-Tom wrote:
Assad is a colossal prick, but Obama's hands were effectively tied. If he had been more aggressive against Assad (and he already took a hawkish stance), he ran the triple risk of both pissing off Russia to the point of no-return, sinking the Iran deal, and allowing a power vacuum to further cement itself, potentially allowing for radical Islamist groups to find a way to power in Syria.
As much as Obama's foreign policy deserves critiques, he did quite alright in Syria.
What would Russia's "point of no return" been for Syria? An invasion of Western Europe? Putin cares about Syria, sure, but not enough to start a thermonuclear war over it.
The Iran deal is fairer criticism, but as we saw: A) that sank, admittedly though due an unforeseeable candidate; and B) I don't think Iran would have backed out over Syria. The country is desperate for the deal, and desperate for anything to avoid worldwide sanction.
The power vacuum would have been minimized the earlier Obama would have acted. As the war progressed, and the rebels desperately turned to jihadist elements, it became more likely.
Syria was Obama's biggest weak point - his "red line," alone, was a terrible embarrassment even by his own admission.
by Major-Tom » Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:33 am
Theriok wrote:Major-Tom wrote:
Assad is a colossal prick, but Obama's hands were effectively tied. If he had been more aggressive against Assad (and he already took a hawkish stance), he ran the triple risk of both pissing off Russia to the point of no-return, sinking the Iran deal, and allowing a power vacuum to further cement itself, potentially allowing for radical Islamist groups to find a way to power in Syria.
As much as Obama's foreign policy deserves critiques, he did quite alright in Syria.
What would Russia's "point of no return" been for Syria? An invasion of Western Europe? Putin cares about Syria, sure, but not enough to start a thermonuclear war over it.
The Iran deal is fairer criticism, but as we saw: A) that sank, admittedly though due an unforeseeable candidate; and B) I don't think Iran would have backed out over Syria. The country is desperate for the deal, and desperate for anything to avoid worldwide sanction.
The power vacuum would have been minimized the earlier Obama would have acted. As the war progressed, and the rebels desperately turned to jihadist elements, it became more likely.
Syria was Obama's biggest weak point - his "red line," alone, was a terrible embarrassment even by his own admission.
by Chan Island » Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:40 am
Senkaku wrote:At this point I'd just settle for not having a genocide whenever the Turks get around to pulling out of Idlib.
Conserative Morality wrote:"It's not time yet" is a tactic used by reactionaries in every era. "It's not time for democracy, it's not time for capitalism, it's not time for emancipation." Of course it's not time. It's never time, not on its own. You make it time. If you're under fire in the no-man's land of WW1, you start digging a foxhole even if the ideal time would be when you *aren't* being bombarded, because once you wait for it to be 'time', other situations will need your attention, assuming you survive that long. If the fields aren't furrowed, plow them. If the iron is not hot, make it so. If society is not ready, change it.
by Theriok » Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:44 am
Major-Tom wrote:
Russia invaded Ukraine and Georgia, the West condemned 'em, but never forcefully put a stop to it. And how could they, what are they going to do, start a war (like you said)? No, of course not. Putin would not have invaded Europe, but had Assad gone down thanks to aggressive US intervention, I could just as easily see Russia trying to "pick up the pieces" in Syria and establishing a presence. Not an occupation, but a hail-mary pass to re-prop up the some continuation of an Assad-like regime, so to speak. Syria was and is a major strategic country for Russia, and that should not be underestimated.
Major-Tom wrote:As for Iran, Iran had continually made threats and demands over the Iran deal before Trump was ushered in. It is not crazy to suggest that they would've amplified this had the US been more aggressive.
Major-Tom wrote:We can say what we want about a power vaccum, but we acted early in Libya, very early and preemptively, but still ended up leaving Libya with an "unforseen" power vaccum. The Jihadists around at the time in Libya that managed to make some serious inroads were puny in contrast to the numbers and organizational prowess of groups within Syria.
I don't know, to me, it seemed like Obama had a slew of bad options, and his cautious approach was the least-worst of all of them.
by Dowaesk » Fri Apr 23, 2021 12:27 pm
Theriok wrote:All we did in Libya was bomb some convoys. We did nothing whatsoever to establish a legitimate government in the aftermath.
by Roblox Crossroads » Fri Apr 23, 2021 5:42 pm
Theriok wrote:Obama should have been much aggressive against Assad. The only solace we can take now is that Assad will be more careful before gunning people down so as to avoid a repeat of this disaster.
by Borderlands of Rojava » Fri Apr 23, 2021 5:59 pm
Theriok wrote:Obama should have been much aggressive against Assad. The only solace we can take now is that Assad will be more careful before gunning people down so as to avoid a repeat of this disaster.
by Auze » Fri Apr 23, 2021 6:02 pm
by Roblox Crossroads » Fri Apr 23, 2021 6:07 pm
by Borderlands of Rojava » Fri Apr 23, 2021 6:08 pm
by Drongonia » Fri Apr 23, 2021 8:39 pm
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by Perikuresu » Fri Apr 23, 2021 8:44 pm
by Roblox Crossroads » Fri Apr 23, 2021 9:12 pm
Perikuresu wrote:Wonder how Assad will deal with Rojava once he "wins" the election
by Dowaesk » Fri Apr 23, 2021 11:37 pm
by Perikuresu » Sat Apr 24, 2021 12:05 am
by Roblox Crossroads » Sat Apr 24, 2021 12:28 am
by Vivolkha » Sat Apr 24, 2021 12:52 am
Theriok wrote:The Iran deal is fairer criticism, but as we saw: A) that sank, admittedly though due an unforeseeable candidate; and B) I don't think Iran would have backed out over Syria. The country is desperate for the deal, and desperate for anything to avoid worldwide sanction.
Perikuresu wrote:Wonder how Assad will deal with Rojava once he "wins" the election
by Page » Sat Apr 24, 2021 2:04 am
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