Battle for the Beehive(A New Zealand Election Thread)

[Costa Fierro]

Especially as he has a wife in the field.

Since when did husbands ever listen to their wives?

I'm someone who tries to be mode neutral, as in, I like more road/rail/whatever infra spending. So wasn't over the moon with the cancelled projects when they first came in, but was interested in LR etc. especially the NW one - both lines seem to have stopped entirely now though.

Because much like liberal democracy, they're luxuries, and luxuries are not useful in a time of constrained finances. Guarantee that we'll be talking about this in our 50's, when Winston has been dead and buried and Ardern is sitting in a nice chair in a nice house in a nice part of Auckland claiming Super.

The Greens national passenger rail appeared to stop at Timaru, missing out the 2nd largest city in the South Island (Dunedin). Not to mention, Dunedin already has the rail infrastructure mostly in place. But yes, Greens do have some decent policies. The whole insulation/housing regulations was <3, and common sense. I personally can't see myself voting for them though, until their social policies take a backseat to their environmental ones.

That's one of the problems with that plan is that it doesn't consider Christchurch-Dunedin. Why not extend intercity rail services to Invercargill? Also, the Greens have had a wide number of social policies alongside their environmental ones since they came into existence, I don't get the idea that they can't have social policies and be a party that does more for the environment, because increasingly those two are related.

[Forsher]

I'm standing with New Conservative.

Yikes.

It was when a Labour party staffer sexually assaulted members of the Young Labour movement during a camp or something.

Ah, that scandal.

So close to my own reaction... "ah, yeah, that".

Anyway...

Jacinda Ardern has, honestly, been very lucky to deal with these crises. I think aspects of the Mosque attack aftermath were handled... very badly, but Covid's been going pretty swimmingly. But what I think people, especially overseas observers, need to remember is that this stacks up against:

• flagship policy failures... many of which are associated with Phil Twyford
• scandal after scandal... many involving ministers, including our friend Phil Twyford
• keeping Phil Twyford's career alive and thriving... if ever you've wondered why there was that "Meet NZ's Trudeau, Except on Immigration she's more like Trump" thing it's Twyford (but Labour hate the Asians as opposed to Mexicans and Middle Easterners)
• a continuation of John Key style political operating

Yeah... I can't see myself voting for Labour. The problems that Labour had are still there and still severe.

God knows what would have happened if Judith Collins became leader.

Speaking from several days later and the first scandal into Muller's career...

She's not that bad.

I still don't get the support for Jacinda's government. Only good thing she did was handling corona.

She did give birth in office. Is that a world first?

Nope.

And, honestly, what's this got to do with being PM? Might as well talk up BoJo for having Covid.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

She did give birth in office. Is that a world first?

Nope.

And, honestly, what's this got to do with being PM? Might as well talk up BoJo for having Covid.

What politicians do in their private lives does matter. Perhaps you should attack Adern for not giving the PM job her full attention: she could have had an early abortion as soon as she knew. Would that have been better?

BoJo catching Covid actually compares well with Trump's obsessive steps to avoid catching Covid. My respect for him did actually go up.

[Shrillland]

To be fair, though, property owners buying up mass amounts of property and turning around and renting them is a major factor in the housing crises in New Zealand and elsewhere. Limiting foreign ownership of property does help. I'm not a fan of outright banning non-citizens from owning property, but if all you're going to be is a remote disinterested landlord, what's the point?

[Nobel Hobos 2]

To be fair, though, property owners buying up mass amounts of property and turning around and renting them is a major factor in the housing crises in New Zealand and elsewhere. Limiting foreign ownership of property does help. I'm not a fan of outright banning non-citizens from owning property, but if all you're going to be is a remote disinterested landlord, what's the point?

Commercial land is different. Providing the foreign investor is going to set up a business on that land, I'm OK with them buying it. Maybe tie the land to the business: they can't move the business or shut it down, without also selling the land.

Residential land: I'm absolutely for banning foreign ownership.

[Shrillland]

To be fair, though, property owners buying up mass amounts of property and turning around and renting them is a major factor in the housing crises in New Zealand and elsewhere. Limiting foreign ownership of property does help. I'm not a fan of outright banning non-citizens from owning property, but if all you're going to be is a remote disinterested landlord, what's the point?

Commercial land is different. Providing the foreign investor is going to set up a business on that land, I'm OK with them buying it. Maybe tie the land to the business: they can't move the business or shut it down, without also selling the land.

Residential land: I'm absolutely for banning foreign ownership.

I would be if such a ban carved out exceptions for people who actually want to live on the property they're buying. People who've done well and are legal permanent residents on the road to citizenship and the like.

[Drongonia]

Commercial land is different. Providing the foreign investor is going to set up a business on that land, I'm OK with them buying it. Maybe tie the land to the business: they can't move the business or shut it down, without also selling the land.

Residential land: I'm absolutely for banning foreign ownership.

This ^

Especially in Auckland, where the city zoning laws and planning legislation make building and expanding residential areas rather difficult. Kiwis (including people who want to immigrate here) should have the chance to own a home, or at least rent from a landlord who's in the country and can hear their concerns not just via a property manager.

[Jedi Council]

Another tid-bit from the New Conservative website I just read;

A preoccupation with 'rights' with very little reference to 'responsibilities' has left society in a situation where some young people have realised that they can do whatever they like with little or no consequences.

Gotta love the casual tone with which the concept of "rights" is tossed aside.

[Costa Fierro]

Speaking from several days later and the first scandal into Muller's career...

She's not that bad.

Is that because she doesn't have a MAGA hat?

To be fair, though, property owners buying up mass amounts of property and turning around and renting them is a major factor in the housing crises in New Zealand and elsewhere. Limiting foreign ownership of property does help. I'm not a fan of outright banning non-citizens from owning property, but if all you're going to be is a remote disinterested landlord, what's the point?

There's a certain element of nationalism that exists within the New Zealand national psyche that no doubt exists in the Australian one as well. There's been issues with very wealthy foreigners purchasing large stations and farms in the South Island and and restricting public access to lakes, walking tracks, etc., plus significant anecdotal evidence that significant amounts of Chinese money and Chinese investors were buying into the Auckland property market.

A ban was introduced. The Auckland market dipped, stabilised, then rose again on the back of domestic speculation.

This ^

Especially in Auckland, where the city zoning laws and planning legislation make building and expanding residential areas rather difficult. Kiwis (including people who want to immigrate here) should have the chance to own a home, or at least rent from a landlord who's in the country and can hear their concerns not just via a property manager.

Domestic landlords tend to be just as horrible as foreign landlords, but where it's foreign landlords trying to bend the rules, domestic landlords just pump up rents for little or no reason and start screaming whenever the government tries to make their rental properties actually liveable for tenants. It's a massive amount of entitlement that makes me detest these people.

My aunt is one of them. Literally has an office job at one of the large Fletchers owned (or supplied, I can't remember which) building supply retailers and is hoping to get laid off so she can live off the income from her three rental properties.

[Costa Fierro]

Another tid-bit from the New Conservative website I just read;

A preoccupation with 'rights' with very little reference to 'responsibilities' has left society in a situation where some young people have realised that they can do whatever they like with little or no consequences.

Gotta love the casual tone with which the concept of "rights" is tossed aside.

The irony being that the New Conservatives would be the first to cry foul if any perceived infringements on their rights was made by the government.

[Jedi Council]

Another tid-bit from the New Conservative website I just read;

A preoccupation with 'rights' with very little reference to 'responsibilities' has left society in a situation where some young people have realised that they can do whatever they like with little or no consequences.

Gotta love the casual tone with which the concept of "rights" is tossed aside.

The irony being that the New Conservatives would be the first to cry foul if any perceived infringements on their rights was made by the government.

As is always the case among conservatives.

They value rights, provided they are the right rights.

[Costa Fierro]

As is always the case among conservatives.

They value rights, provided they are the right rights.

Well in some cases, yes. ACT is a right-libertarian party that has also been claiming that rights have been lost, but whether or not it's Seymour's pandering to the far right or genuine opposition to perceived government overreach I am not sure of. ACT isn't all that socially conservative however, they've backed both marijuana law reform and Seymour's euthanasia bill would have been passed by Parliament had it not been amended by New Zealand First to be put to the public in a referendum.

I mention this because there was a public stoush between him and Green party MP's, especially Golriz Gahrahman, over suggestions that the government could expand existing hate speech laws (which are pretty limited), claiming it was a violation of the right to freedom of speech. He labelled her a "threat to the nation" at a time when she was being subject to a large amount of abuse and threats from various people on the internet, getting to the point where she was the only other MP other than the Prime Minister to receive police protection to and from Parliament.

[Forsher]

Nope.

And, honestly, what's this got to do with being PM? Might as well talk up BoJo for having Covid.

What politicians do in their private lives does matter. Perhaps you should attack Adern for not giving the PM job her full attention: she could have had an early abortion as soon as she knew. Would that have been better?

BoJo catching Covid actually compares well with Trump's obsessive steps to avoid catching Covid. My respect for him did actually go up.

My point is that having Covid or being pregnant/giving birth or having an affair with a secretary or being wheelchair bound from (possibly) polio do not compromise or elevate political decision making. They're not actually important at all. What's the causal mechanism between Johnson's bad luck and his skill or adequacy as a public servant or representative?

Ardern was quite good at pointing this out. That is a measure by which you might respect her.

To be fair, though, property owners buying up mass amounts of property and turning around and renting them is a major factor in the housing crises in New Zealand and elsewhere. Limiting foreign ownership of property does help. I'm not a fan of outright banning non-citizens from owning property, but if all you're going to be is a remote disinterested landlord, what's the point?

Ma and Pa landlords are one of the biggest problems in NZ's housing market.

I can't remember is that was from the ProdComm review or the Stocktake the current government had Eaquab do or both.

Of course, the Productivity Commission was also a big fan of sprawl and the Eaquab report wasn't... so I think there are valid questions to raise about how much these sorts of things are catered to their political masters. Which is a nice bit of cynicism until you remember that Labour likes sprawl just as much.

Speaking from several days later and the first scandal into Muller's career...

She's not that bad.

Is that because she doesn't have a MAGA hat?

Well, as far as we know.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

What politicians do in their private lives does matter. Perhaps you should attack Adern for not giving the PM job her full attention: she could have had an early abortion as soon as she knew. Would that have been better?

BoJo catching Covid actually compares well with Trump's obsessive steps to avoid catching Covid. My respect for him did actually go up.

My point is that having Covid or being pregnant/giving birth or having an affair with a secretary or being wheelchair bound from (possibly) polio do not compromise or elevate political decision making. They're not actually important at all. What's the causal mechanism between Johnson's bad luck and his skill or adequacy as a public servant or representative?

Ardern was quite good at pointing this out. That is a measure by which you might respect her.

If you expect me to accept that high moral ground that anything not directly related to policy or decision making, is a politician's private life and should not be considered, well I just won't. Particularly since you included "having an affair with a secretary".

No, I am not giving Bill Clinton a pass on having sex with a junior staffer. You might, I won't.

Two aspects of Adern's pregnancy in office: one, she took six weeks off work. How does that NOT have a bearing on how she did her job as PM?

Two, by exercising her legal right to take time off work for pregnancy/maternity, she set an excellent example to other women and to employers. If she'd just been a secretary or a welder, exercising her right wouldn't have set much of an example to anyone, so it is entirely relevant that she was PM at the time.

In my opinion, point two outweighs point one, so I find Adern to be a better person for the decision she made.

You're apparently not going to vote Labour, so it puzzles me why you're running this "it makes no difference" defense of Adern?

[Agarntrop]

So some of the polls are suggesting Ardern gets 72 seats - a majority of 11.

[Drongonia]

So some of the polls are suggesting Ardern gets 72 seats - a majority of 11.

I'd wait and see on those numbers, as the two polls estimating those were taken before the opposition party (National) rolled its supremely unpopular leader (Simon Bridges), in favour of relative newcomer Todd Muller. In fact, those two polls that served as the catalyst for Bridges' removal.

Despite Muller's issue around having a MAGA hat in his office, even left-wing pundits are now admitting that the contest is back on and National will have a fighting chance for 2020. Personally I'm not sure they can pull off a win unless there's a massive recession, as National are widely known to be the better economic managers of the two main parties. If my prediction is right and National does lose, I think it will be close and they'll at least crest 40% with Labour hitting 45 - 50%.

[Agarntrop]

So some of the polls are suggesting Ardern gets 72 seats - a majority of 11.

I'd wait and see on those numbers, as the two polls estimating those were taken before the opposition party (National) rolled its supremely unpopular leader (Simon Bridges), in favour of relative newcomer Todd Muller. In fact, those two polls that served as the catalyst for Bridges' removal.

Despite Muller's issue around having a MAGA hat in his office, even left-wing pundits are now admitting that the contest is back on and National will have a fighting chance for 2020.

That's what they said about british Labour last year, they didn't. It was a similar situation here, a very unpopular and quite radical opposition leader against a minority government with a clear goal and a
relatatively popular leader. Of course, instead of brexit the issue in 2020 NZ is covid and getting the economy back on track, but I can already see some parallells.

Now of course NZ has its own circumstances, so correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm looking at this from an outsider's perspective.

Also the polled % of seats in parliament that ardern is projected to get is almost the same % boris has now, coincidentally.

[Agarntrop]

So some of the polls are suggesting Ardern gets 72 seats - a majority of 11.

I'd wait and see on those numbers, as the two polls estimating those were taken before the opposition party (National) rolled its supremely unpopular leader (Simon Bridges), in favour of relative newcomer Todd Muller. In fact, those two polls that served as the catalyst for Bridges' removal.

Despite Muller's issue around having a MAGA hat in his office, even left-wing pundits are now admitting that the contest is back on and National will have a fighting chance for 2020. Personally I'm not sure they can pull off a win unless there's a massive recession, as National are widely known to be the better economic managers of the two main parties. If my prediction is right and National does lose, I think it will be close and they'll at least crest 40% with Labour hitting 45 - 50%.

oh i remember doing that being hopeful that your party didnt lose as bad when you knew they were gonna lose

[Drongonia]

Also I want to leave this here as my first prediction (May 27, 2020)

This is, of course, an approximation.

47% Labour
40% National
5% Green
4% NZF (please fucking please just go away NZF)
2% New Conservative (yes, at least 2% of the population are Facebook/Twitter boomers)
1% ACT, because they're hanging in there.

1% for the others.

I say "first prediction" because this could change. I'm also aware asking National to bounce back up to 40% is a lot, but if they spend enough money on marketing and spin (which they will), they might be able to play up the impending recession and the very true fact that there are a few dunces on Labour's front bench.

[Agarntrop]

Now i have an awful feeling what i just said was bs

[Agarntrop]

Also I want to leave this here as my first prediction (May 27, 2020)

This is, of course, an approximation.

47% Labour
40% National
5% Green
4% NZF (please fucking please just go away NZF)
2% New Conservative (yes, at least 2% of the population are Facebook/Twitter boomers)
1% ACT, because they're hanging in there.

1% for the others.

I say "first prediction" because this could change. I'm also aware asking National to bounce back up to 40% is a lot, but if they spend enough money on marketing and spin (which they will), they might be able to play up the impending recession and the very true fact that there are a few dunces on Labour's front bench.

Hoping that your party loose loads of seats because they have no chance? Quite dismal. Even when they are in opposition?

Wait .... I remember doing that last year.....

[Drongonia]

That's what they said about british Labour last year, they didn't. It was a similar situation here, a very unpopular and quite radical opposition leader against a minority government with a clear goal and a
relatatively popular leader. Of course, instead of brexit the issue in 2020 NZ is covid and getting the economy back on track, but I can already see some parallells.

Now of course NZ has its own circumstances, so correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm looking at this from an outsider's perspective.

Also the polled % of seats in parliament that ardern is projected to get is almost the same % boris has now, coincidentally.

A couple of things here. Labour in the UK actually kept their unpopular leader, National here have not. Also, National's leader is not an anti-semite and literal terrorist sympathiser as Corbyn was/is (that we know of).

oh i remember doing that being hopeful that your party didnt lose as bad when you knew they were gonna lose

Nah, National aren't my party. I'm just being realistic here considering the fact that National are usually the higher-polling of the two mainstays, and the fact that they have a massive PR and spin machine which will be working around the clock. I don't really know how I feel about National to be honest, whether to be disappointed, sad, angry or what.

Agarntrop, I don't want National to win. I want them to lose, and lose badly. I want them to lose so badly they have no choice but to take a good hard look at themselves and their priorities, and realise that peddling the same thing as Labour (but blue) is not going to get them anywhere.

[Agarntrop]

That's what they said about british Labour last year, they didn't. It was a similar situation here, a very unpopular and quite radical opposition leader against a minority government with a clear goal and a
relatatively popular leader. Of course, instead of brexit the issue in 2020 NZ is covid and getting the economy back on track, but I can already see some parallells.

Now of course NZ has its own circumstances, so correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm looking at this from an outsider's perspective.

Also the polled % of seats in parliament that ardern is projected to get is almost the same % boris has now, coincidentally.

A couple of things here. Labour in the UK actually kept their unpopular leader, National here have not. Also, National's leader is not an anti-semite and literal terrorist sympathiser as Corbyn was/is (that we know of).

oh i remember doing that being hopeful that your party didnt lose as bad when you knew they were gonna lose

Nah, National aren't my party. I'm just being realistic here considering the fact that National are usually the higher-polling of the two mainstays, and the fact that they have a massive PR and spin machine which will be working around the clock. I don't really know how I feel about National to be honest, whether to be disappointed, sad, angry or what.

Agarntrop, I don't want National to win. I want them to lose, and lose badly.

oh?

[Drongonia]

oh?

Let me inform you of something. National's deputy leader, Nikki Kaye, has been elected on the merit that National is a "broad church" and a "party for all New Zealanders".

She voted in favour of abortion reforms allowing the child to be aborted almost up until birth - so did Labour.
She voted in favour of assisted suicide - so did Labour.
She voted in favour of same-sex marriage - so did Labour.
She voted in favour of marijuana legalisation - so did Labour.
She voted in favour of the nation's largest ever gun reforms - so did Labour.
She has indicated that she would vote in favour of anti-hate speech laws, as will Labour.

If you want to consider yourselves opposition, why the hell are you putting candidates in the senior management team who hold exactly the same views as the government? That's my question to National and the reason I want them to lose.

[Agarntrop]

oh?

Let me inform you of something. National's deputy leader, Nikki Kaye, has been elected on the merit that National is a "broad church" and a "party for all New Zealanders".

She voted in favour of abortion reforms allowing the child to be aborted almost up until birth - so did Labour.
She voted in favour of assisted suicide - so did Labour.
She voted in favour of same-sex marriage - so did Labour.
She voted in favour of marijuana legalisation - so did Labour.
She voted in favour of the nation's largest ever gun reforms - so did Labour.
She has indicated that she would vote in favour of anti-hate speech laws, as will Labour.

If you want to consider yourselves opposition, why the hell are you putting candidates in the senior management team who hold exactly the same views as the government? That's my question to National and the reason I want them to lose.

nothing wrong with any of them, except the first and last, and maybe the gun reforms.