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American Politics VII: Virginia Reel

For discussion and debate about anything. (Not a roleplay related forum; out-of-character commentary only.)

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Who do you think will win the Virginia Gubernatorial Race?

Terry McAuliffe(D)
57
57%
Glenn Youngkin(R)
43
43%
 
Total votes : 100

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Fahran
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Founded: Nov 13, 2017
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Fahran » Sat Oct 23, 2021 9:13 pm

New haven america wrote:Ok, this is getting almost comical

Abbott's really worried about his election chances, isn't he?

Abbott's probably fine to be honest. He has a large funding advantage over his GOP challengers, among them Allen West, and he managed to see off Lupe Valdez very comfortably in the last gubernatorial election. Given how strong political parties are in Texas and how he's managed to keep suburbanite voters in Houston and Dallas onside, he should win by a pretty comfortable margin, being carried by everything outside of Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, El Paso, and the Valley. A ten or fifteen point victory wouldn't surprise me. He'll likely win by a million in the popular vote again too.

And, before you accuse me of being a wingnut, while such a charge is accurate, I actually dislike Abbott for a wide number of reasons and would very much like to see him lose. He's not likely to lose though, and, as I pointed out below, it has nothing to do with gerrymandering or cheating.
Last edited by Fahran on Sat Oct 23, 2021 9:26 pm, edited 2 times in total.
"They [progressives] were all corrupt." - Kowani
This too shall pass.

I've been contemplating the next season of my life for a few weeks now. I could worry about unfulfilling good byes and paltry words for a hundred more weeks, but I suppose this will suffice. If your eyes should happen upon this signature, I pray that you will find love, happiness, and righteousness with each morning that you rise and each evening that you sleep, secure in the knowledge that you are deeply worthy of such wondrous and beauteous things.

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Fahran
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Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Fahran » Sat Oct 23, 2021 9:15 pm

Deblar wrote:Thanks to all that voter suppression he signed into law, unlikely

Abbott won the popular vote in the last gubernatorial election by over a million votes. :eyebrow:
"They [progressives] were all corrupt." - Kowani
This too shall pass.

I've been contemplating the next season of my life for a few weeks now. I could worry about unfulfilling good byes and paltry words for a hundred more weeks, but I suppose this will suffice. If your eyes should happen upon this signature, I pray that you will find love, happiness, and righteousness with each morning that you rise and each evening that you sleep, secure in the knowledge that you are deeply worthy of such wondrous and beauteous things.

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Corrian
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New York Times Democracy

Postby Corrian » Sat Oct 23, 2021 9:31 pm

San Lumen wrote:
New haven america wrote:Ok, this is getting almost comical

Abbott's really worried about his election chances, isn't he?


what makes you say that? i very much doubt hes going to lose reelection.

His polling isn't great but its also Texas.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Sat Oct 23, 2021 9:35 pm

Corrian wrote:
San Lumen wrote:
what makes you say that? i very much doubt hes going to lose reelection.

His polling isn't great but its also Texas.


I don’t see a Democrat winning statewide office for a few more cycles. It will vote blue at the presidential level first like Virginia did in 2008.

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Fahran
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Founded: Nov 13, 2017
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Fahran » Sat Oct 23, 2021 9:37 pm

Corrian wrote:His polling isn't great but its also Texas.

The main thing is that Texans don't really seem to like any of the other options, despite wanting Abbott out. And the state Republican Party and donors seem intent on standing behind him despite a third term being unusual for our state. That said, if I have a choice between voting for Abbott and voting for O'Rourke or West, I'm going to vote for Abbott. He's awful, but he's not a complete schmuck bolstered by his pretty hair or a wingnut known for his awful hot takes. He's just... suburbia's candidate. Ugh.
Last edited by Fahran on Sat Oct 23, 2021 9:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"They [progressives] were all corrupt." - Kowani
This too shall pass.

I've been contemplating the next season of my life for a few weeks now. I could worry about unfulfilling good byes and paltry words for a hundred more weeks, but I suppose this will suffice. If your eyes should happen upon this signature, I pray that you will find love, happiness, and righteousness with each morning that you rise and each evening that you sleep, secure in the knowledge that you are deeply worthy of such wondrous and beauteous things.

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Deblar
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Founded: Jan 28, 2021
Left-wing Utopia

Postby Deblar » Sat Oct 23, 2021 9:44 pm

Fahran wrote:
Corrian wrote:His polling isn't great but its also Texas.

The main thing is that Texans don't really seem to like any of the other options, despite wanting Abbott out. And the state Republican Party and donors seem intent on standing behind him despite a third term being unusual for our state. That said, if I have a choice between voting for Abbott and voting for O'Rourke or West, I'm going to vote for Abbott. He's awful, but he's not a complete schmuck bolstered by his pretty hair or a wingnut known for his awful hot takes. He's just... suburbia's candidate. Ugh.

Matthew McConaughey should run. The fact that I am saying this almost unironically really shows how much of a nuclear wasteland the current political landscape is.

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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Sat Oct 23, 2021 9:47 pm

Deblar wrote:
Fahran wrote:The main thing is that Texans don't really seem to like any of the other options, despite wanting Abbott out. And the state Republican Party and donors seem intent on standing behind him despite a third term being unusual for our state. That said, if I have a choice between voting for Abbott and voting for O'Rourke or West, I'm going to vote for Abbott. He's awful, but he's not a complete schmuck bolstered by his pretty hair or a wingnut known for his awful hot takes. He's just... suburbia's candidate. Ugh.

Matthew McConaughey should run. The fact that I am saying this almost unironically really shows how much of a nuclear wasteland the current political landscape is.

If he runs as an independent polling is showing he could win.

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Fahran
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Postby Fahran » Sat Oct 23, 2021 9:48 pm

Deblar wrote:Matthew McConaughey should run. The fact that I am saying this almost unironically really shows how much of a nuclear wasteland the current political landscape is.

McConaughey would likely be a bigger disaster than Abbott unfortunately. Really, Texas has next to no good options above the local level given how powerful political parties are in our state and the sorts of people who tend to work their way through the ranks. I actually don't think Texas turning blue would change a whole lot given how our political institutions work. You'd get politicians signalling to different groups, but the day-to-day policies would remain comfortably approved of by the Chambers of Commerce, the suburban home owners and wealthy city-slickers, and petroleum, healthcare, and construction companies. That should be pretty evident just looking at O'Rourke or Valdez.
"They [progressives] were all corrupt." - Kowani
This too shall pass.

I've been contemplating the next season of my life for a few weeks now. I could worry about unfulfilling good byes and paltry words for a hundred more weeks, but I suppose this will suffice. If your eyes should happen upon this signature, I pray that you will find love, happiness, and righteousness with each morning that you rise and each evening that you sleep, secure in the knowledge that you are deeply worthy of such wondrous and beauteous things.

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Corrian
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New York Times Democracy

Postby Corrian » Sat Oct 23, 2021 9:54 pm

I still semi seriously stick by that Matthew McConaughey will win just because politics be weird right now.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Sat Oct 23, 2021 9:55 pm

Fahran wrote:
Deblar wrote:Matthew McConaughey should run. The fact that I am saying this almost unironically really shows how much of a nuclear wasteland the current political landscape is.

McConaughey would likely be a bigger disaster than Abbott unfortunately. Really, Texas has next to no good options above the local level given how powerful political parties are in our state and the sorts of people who tend to work their way through the ranks. I actually don't think Texas turning blue would change a whole lot given how our political institutions work. You'd get politicians signalling to different groups, but the day-to-day policies would remain comfortably approved of by the Chambers of Commerce, the suburban home owners and wealthy city-slickers, and petroleum, healthcare, and construction companies. That should be pretty evident just looking at O'Rourke or Valdez.

Why would he be a bigger disaster?

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Deblar
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Left-wing Utopia

Postby Deblar » Sat Oct 23, 2021 9:55 pm

Somebody get me out of this hellhole

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Corrian
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Postby Corrian » Sat Oct 23, 2021 10:02 pm

Deblar wrote:Somebody get me out of this hellhole

I wish I could.
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Fahran
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Founded: Nov 13, 2017
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Fahran » Sat Oct 23, 2021 10:09 pm

San Lumen wrote:Why would he be a bigger disaster?

He'd be an inexperienced governor operating in a state that has strong political parties and weak governors and where his lieutenant governor, which is the stronger office in this case, and Congress will likely come from an opposing party. And this is assuming he's actually somewhat good at his job.
Last edited by Fahran on Sat Oct 23, 2021 10:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"They [progressives] were all corrupt." - Kowani
This too shall pass.

I've been contemplating the next season of my life for a few weeks now. I could worry about unfulfilling good byes and paltry words for a hundred more weeks, but I suppose this will suffice. If your eyes should happen upon this signature, I pray that you will find love, happiness, and righteousness with each morning that you rise and each evening that you sleep, secure in the knowledge that you are deeply worthy of such wondrous and beauteous things.

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Dreria
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Founded: Sep 16, 2021
Capitalist Paradise

Postby Dreria » Sat Oct 23, 2021 10:14 pm

I assume texans exist that are alright, although I have only met one and that was online. People that intentionally become texans, or californicucks that larp as texans on the other hand are near irredeemable.
Last edited by Dreria on Sat Oct 23, 2021 10:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
catboy traditionalism

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Fahran
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Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Fahran » Sat Oct 23, 2021 10:19 pm

Dreria wrote:I assume texans exist that are alright, although I have only met one and that was online. People that intentionally become texans, or californicucks that larp as texans on the other hand are near irredeemable.

Texas is actually a pretty nice place to live and people, by and large, are friendly on a pretty consistent basis. The fact that are politics suck doesn't really have a whole lot of bearing on that, especially when voting blue probably isn't going to fix most of the actual problems inherent to our politics.
"They [progressives] were all corrupt." - Kowani
This too shall pass.

I've been contemplating the next season of my life for a few weeks now. I could worry about unfulfilling good byes and paltry words for a hundred more weeks, but I suppose this will suffice. If your eyes should happen upon this signature, I pray that you will find love, happiness, and righteousness with each morning that you rise and each evening that you sleep, secure in the knowledge that you are deeply worthy of such wondrous and beauteous things.

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Corrian
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Posts: 73159
Founded: Mar 19, 2011
New York Times Democracy

Postby Corrian » Sat Oct 23, 2021 10:21 pm

Fahran wrote:
Dreria wrote:I assume texans exist that are alright, although I have only met one and that was online. People that intentionally become texans, or californicucks that larp as texans on the other hand are near irredeemable.

Texas is actually a pretty nice place to live and people, by and large, are friendly on a pretty consistent basis. The fact that are politics suck doesn't really have a whole lot of bearing on that, especially when voting blue probably isn't going to fix most of the actual problems inherent to our politics.

I mean Texas keeps doing things unpopular with their actual constituents. Even they don't like what's going on.

Does it mean they'll actually vote to change that? Who knows.
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Look on the bright side, one day you'll be dead~Street Sects

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Dreria
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Founded: Sep 16, 2021
Capitalist Paradise

Postby Dreria » Sat Oct 23, 2021 10:22 pm

Fahran wrote:
Dreria wrote:I assume texans exist that are alright, although I have only met one and that was online. People that intentionally become texans, or californicucks that larp as texans on the other hand are near irredeemable.

Texas is actually a pretty nice place to live and people, by and large, are friendly on a pretty consistent basis. The fact that are politics suck doesn't really have a whole lot of bearing on that, especially when voting blue probably isn't going to fix most of the actual problems inherent to our politics.

nonetheless i stand by my lived experience
Last edited by Dreria on Sat Oct 23, 2021 10:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
catboy traditionalism

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Fahran
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Founded: Nov 13, 2017
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Fahran » Sat Oct 23, 2021 10:32 pm

Corrian wrote:I mean Texas keeps doing things unpopular with their actual constituents. Even they don't like what's going on.

Does it mean they'll actually vote to change that? Who knows.

If we want serious change, we're going to have to do a bit more than vote honestly. Dems would likely not annoy millions of women by trying to ban abortion, but they're still going to retain the strong party politics present in Texas and are still going to be heavily reliant on the suburbs to maintain their power. I'm not really sure how much better COVID policies would actually be under them either.

Imma go have a gloomer moment.
"They [progressives] were all corrupt." - Kowani
This too shall pass.

I've been contemplating the next season of my life for a few weeks now. I could worry about unfulfilling good byes and paltry words for a hundred more weeks, but I suppose this will suffice. If your eyes should happen upon this signature, I pray that you will find love, happiness, and righteousness with each morning that you rise and each evening that you sleep, secure in the knowledge that you are deeply worthy of such wondrous and beauteous things.

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Fahran
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Founded: Nov 13, 2017
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Fahran » Sat Oct 23, 2021 10:34 pm

Dreria wrote:[nonetheless i stand by my lived experience

Fair enough. And I by mine.
"They [progressives] were all corrupt." - Kowani
This too shall pass.

I've been contemplating the next season of my life for a few weeks now. I could worry about unfulfilling good byes and paltry words for a hundred more weeks, but I suppose this will suffice. If your eyes should happen upon this signature, I pray that you will find love, happiness, and righteousness with each morning that you rise and each evening that you sleep, secure in the knowledge that you are deeply worthy of such wondrous and beauteous things.

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Dreria
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Founded: Sep 16, 2021
Capitalist Paradise

Postby Dreria » Sat Oct 23, 2021 10:47 pm

also no one cares about whataburger and i will never choose to go some place other than in n out
catboy traditionalism

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Fahran
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Founded: Nov 13, 2017
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Fahran » Sat Oct 23, 2021 10:56 pm

Dreria wrote:also no one cares about whataburger and i will never choose to go some place other than in n out

Your opinion is noted. When I become dictator, you will be sent to the pony farm for your sins.
"They [progressives] were all corrupt." - Kowani
This too shall pass.

I've been contemplating the next season of my life for a few weeks now. I could worry about unfulfilling good byes and paltry words for a hundred more weeks, but I suppose this will suffice. If your eyes should happen upon this signature, I pray that you will find love, happiness, and righteousness with each morning that you rise and each evening that you sleep, secure in the knowledge that you are deeply worthy of such wondrous and beauteous things.

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Kilobugya
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Left-wing Utopia

Postby Kilobugya » Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:38 pm



How can a State exempt itself from an Amendment ? What comes next, states exempting from the 1st and banning free speech ? Or (not that I wouldn't actually support that one) "blue" states exempting from the 2nd and banning all firearms ? I wonder where Texas GOP madness will stop... or do they want Civil War 2.0 ?
Secular humanist and trans-humanist, rationalist, democratic socialist, pacifist, dreaming very high to not perform too low.
Economic Left/Right: -9.50 - Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -7.69

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Kowani
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Posts: 44631
Founded: Apr 01, 2018
Democratic Socialists

Postby Kowani » Sun Oct 24, 2021 12:12 am

Kowani wrote:
Zurkerx wrote:[ Kow I believe has a huge post somewhere regarding everything here but the facts are clear: the GOP are a monstrous threat and as long as Democrats continually fight each other and view their counterparts as "political opposition" rather than enemies of Democracy, which the GOP calls Democrats, they will succeed in their goals. After all: The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good people to do nothing.

I want to revamp and explain more things later on, but here-specifically about "polarization" and media framing

And round 2 (Special thanks to Zukerx for his help gathering sources)

Before, I focused on the theoretical side of how Republicans threaten democracy. This time, I wanted to look a bit more at the concrete actions taken in order to form a clear picture. So let's take a look at the most Republican state in the Union. No, not Texas or West Virginia or Florida. We're going to look at Wisconsin. Now, a rational observer might point out that with the exception of the non-partisan offices, a formality in name only, the partisanship of the non-partisan state Supreme Court races is very real) there is only one statewide elected office in Wisconsin held by a republican (Sen. Ron Johnson). So what could I mean by "most Republican State?" Well, let's look at the legislature.

Image
Image

And this all looks very good. The Republicans won statewide majorities in both houses in 2020, so they should get a majority of both houses. But it's not so simple. This is wildly disproportionate-the Assembly WIGOP only won 54% of the vote, but they got 61% of the seats. The same goes in the Senate, where they got 53% of the vote...and 63% of the seats.
But the real important election is 2018 in the State Assembly, where the WIGOP won 45% of the vote...and 64% of the seats. Now this is an insane undemocratic state of affairs. In an election where the party lost 7 percentage points in the popular vote, becoming the minority, they lost...one seat in the legislature and kept the majority.
But it gets worse. The current Governor of Wisconsin is a Democrat, having defeated the previous Republican Governor, Scott Walker. The immediate response of the Republicans in the legislature was to strip the office (and that of the Attorney General, which also went to a Dem) of several of its powers to try and insulate themselves from the inconvenience of democracy. But it wasn't just Wisconsin Republicans who did this. Michigan Republicans did it in response to the victory of Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, North Carolina Republicans did it to Gov. Roy Cooper, Kentucky Republicans did it to Gov. Andy Beshear. (Attempts to do the same to Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly failed in committee).

And speaking of inconveniences of democracy, just this year, Arizona Republicans shifted exclusive control over election lawsuits from Secretary of Katie Hobbs (D) to the Republican attorney general Mark Brnovich- but only through Jan. 2, 2023 — when the winners of the next elections for both offices would be about to take power, as well as when Hobbs' term expires-a very good way to ensure that the authority given to the Attorney General doesn't transfer to a hypothetical Democrat who wins the next race for attorney general.

This is the early, elite version of what happened on January 6th. Less flashy, with less individual consequences if it fails, but attempts to overturn the will of voters all the same. The most explicit of this, however, is not in any swing state (which are good allegories for the national condition), but in Missouri, where Republicans in the state legislature attempted to overrule a passed ballot measure to expand Medicaid. (They later lost in court, but the pattern remains the same: when Republicans lose control over a lever of government, they try to strip it of its power. It's the same reason South Dakota Republicans are currently trying to cripple the state's ballot measure process, and why Mississippi Republicans aren't trying to restore the state's ballot initiative process after the state Supreme Court eliminated it. The Republican Party's elites have decided that democracy is optional.

So let's examine January 6.
The first thing to understand is that it wasn't an isolated event or an uncontrolled riot-local county-level GOP parties were calling for people to "Occupy the Capitol"-and, perhaps most crucially, telling the participants that they were to "overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution". The Stormers knew to target House Whip Jim Clyburn's unmarked private office (bypassing his public marked one entirely), and where to find the weak points at unreinforced windows. And we know from one of the principal organizers of the protest that became the Storming that he had help from 3 Republicans (Mo Brooks, Paul Gosar, and Andy Biggs)And if nothing else, the Oath Keepers were both organized and coordinated, with a second "Quick Reaction Force" armed and waiting nearby for the order to storm the Capitol. That order ultimately never came, and coordination broke down. But we should not be depending on people's incompetence-or willingness to follow a single police officer as bait away from the Senate to safeguard democracy (or a state at all)
Nor can we depend on Mike Pence to deploy the National Guard when the President is intentionally trying to prevent said that deployment.
In their own words, they were there to overthrow the government.

The Republican response to this has been to sweep things under the rug, downplay, and promote it.

The signal here is very clear-the consequences will be light. The stormers will be protected. The national party will do its best to prevent anyone from being held accountable.And they won't try too hard to enforce anything.


But why the acceleration? sure, 63% of Republicans think the election was stolen and 59% say thinking Trump won is an important part of being a Republican.
The conventional theories stop here.
And those theories are extremely important for explaining certain parts of Republican behaviour-Replacing the members of their own party who certified the vote totals, replacing election officials with election deniers, the endless audits (which uniformly find nothing). The voter suppression laws passed in 19 states so far follow this pattern-in addition to cynical Republican politicians believing they can take advantage of the furor to cement electoral advantage.

But there's more to it than that. Consider this poll.
Image

55% of Trump voters viewing it as "freedom", 51% viewing it as "patriotism."
But just as important is this topline from the same poll.
Image

84% of Trump voters believe that democracy is threatened. And thanks to years of apocalyptic rhetoric in their social circles, the devastating effects of racial prejudice on their support for democracy, and the unique animus towards minorities that animates Trump voters, we can say where the threat is and what they see as the problem-a multiracial, pluralistic democracy.
Image

The wheels are all in motion for another coup attempt-this one, without the stopping points of before. The electoral machinery is being taken over,, the Republicans heading for elite positions are opposed to Democratic victories.

A large split-I would argue the fundamental one in the culture war politics-is about who gets to count as American. Whose voices-and votes-are legitimate and whose are not. The sucess of the "voter fraud" lies is directly tied to this idea-it preserves the idea of Real America (who just happens to be white, conservative, and Christian.)
And all of those things are necessary together-it's not any one thing in isolation.
In a country where 30% of the population-and slightly more than half of Republican voters-endorse the idea that "'God intended America to be a new promised land where European Christians could create a society that could be an example to the rest of the world" ever democratically deal with white status threat?
Image


I don't know.
But we're finding out. And I don't like our chances.
Last edited by Kowani on Sun Oct 24, 2021 12:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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The Party with a Soul
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Great Algerstonia
Minister
 
Posts: 2618
Founded: Mar 21, 2019
Ex-Nation

Postby Great Algerstonia » Sun Oct 24, 2021 12:31 am

Anti: Russia
Pro: Prussia
Resilient Acceleration wrote:After a period of letting this discussion run its course without my involvement due to sheer laziness and a new related NS project, I have returned with an answer and that answer is Israel.

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Dreria
Diplomat
 
Posts: 646
Founded: Sep 16, 2021
Capitalist Paradise

Postby Dreria » Sun Oct 24, 2021 12:56 am

Kowani wrote:snip

happy for u or sorry that happened
catboy traditionalism

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