Battle for the Beehive(A New Zealand Election Thread)

[Drongonia]

Wait you proportional?
Fucking New Zealand, always doing well in everything...

Yep, I may not like the current government but considering the state of the world I'm pretty glad to call it home.

[Costa Fierro]

A majority hasn't happened since MMP was introduced in the mid-90's. Every government since then has been a coalition government.

As much as I have an intense dislike for Ardern/Labour I would be obliged to congratulate her if she did manage to form the first ever MMP majority.

I don't see it happening to be honest.

[Agarntrop]

Wait you proportional?
Fucking New Zealand, always doing well in everything...

Yep, I may not like the current government but considering the state of the world I'm pretty glad to call it home.

i swear to god you are the first non-scandie country i see on pm every index of something positive...

[Nobel Hobos 2]

Yep, I may not like the current government but considering the state of the world I'm pretty glad to call it home.

i swear to god you are the first non-scandie country i see on pm every index of something positive...

The MMP system is actually better than any Scaninavian country imo. Not a kiwi though.

[Costa Fierro]

i swear to god you are the first non-scandie country i see on pm every index of something positive...

The MMP system is actually better than any Scaninavian country imo. Not a kiwi though.

To be frank they've fucked with it to the point that it's extremely difficult for non-established parties to make it in.

[Cetacea]

Top of page two, and I'm the first to ask: what beehive?

Manuka honey is very delicious and is only produced in New Zealand and Australia. If you believe the "natural health" nonsense it's supposed to cure cancer too or something. It's a "superfood" or whatever the hell they call food that can cure diseases.

Anyway, critical support for Comrade Jacinda. If only NZ First weren't getting in the way.

Manuka is New Zealand exclusive, Australia has related Tea tree species and Tea tree is also found as an exotic import to the UK. Also Manuka UMF 20+ has science backing its anti microbial claims, medical grade Manuka honey is used to treat burns and gangrene.

Aderns been good in a the crisis - the Mosque shootings, Whakaari eruption and COVID and despite the bungling Labour policies haven’t created the doom her opponents predicted. Free tertiary for school leavers and NZFirst Provincial Growth Investments have had some positive outcomes amidst the dross.
NZ is a firmly centrist nation and ideals of egalitarianism and fair play for every citizen are ingrained, Ardern has been able to tap that ‘girl from the chip shop’ persona to make a connection with the voting public despite party decisions and Winston is wiley enough to use that to advantage.
Bridges on the other hand had the accent and came across as whining and overwhelmingly negative- not least because his tactic was to criticise Aderns announcements rather than presenting any kind of alternative opposition policy. Plus calling his deputy Paula Benefit twice was hilariously dumb (Simons an intelligent guy, but his accent/lisp and faux pas just gave no one confidence in his ability to lead)

The MMP system is actually better than any Scaninavian country imo. Not a kiwi though.

To be frank they've fucked with it to the point that it's extremely difficult for non-established parties to make it in.

ACT, Maori Party and Dunne all made threshold despite once being new, there’s just very little a non centre party can do to get leverage (unless they’re greens)

[Nobel Hobos 2]

The MMP system is actually better than any Scaninavian country imo. Not a kiwi though.

To be frank they've fucked with it to the point that it's extremely difficult for non-established parties to make it in.

There's a 5% threshold for party list seats?

I'm thinking if your minor party can't get 5% of the vote, your minor party probably sucks. But I guess it could be reduced to 3% ... or whatever is equivalent to one seat.

[Shrillland]

Apologies to all who have voted so far, I didn't realise that I forgot to add the Greens to the poll itself(even though they were on the OP), I'll do so now along with an Other option, but that means all the votes end up being removed. And I will indeed switch it to National.

[Major-Tom]

Jacinda is more than just a stellar crisis manager, her government's policy initiatives have been a net positive in my view as an observer. I do hope and expect her to win a second term, probably aligning with the Greens again. Whether Labour can poll enough to exclude NZ First is unknown.

[Ravenni]

Jacinda is more than just a stellar crisis manager, her government's policy initiatives have been a net positive in my view as an observer. I do hope and expect her to win a second term, probably aligning with the Greens again. Whether Labour can poll enough to exclude NZ First is unknown.

I agree that on top of leading NZ through all three crises well they've been a net positive overall, but IMO they've only really done a few bits of bare minimum stuff to be better than National, and haven't been anywhere near the transformational Government they campaigned on. Operating budgets of state services have finally crept up over inflation, NZTA have taken a shift away from roads for the sake of roads, WINZ have had a culture change from punitive to restorative, all of which are good things to see, but their flagship policies have flopped, CGT was ruled out and Winston keeps carving out near-corrupt concessions left, right and centre.

To me there is no better Prime Minister material sitting in Parliament at the moment than Ardern, but what I would love to see is some of the backbenchers brought forward to support or replace flailing ministers (David Clark out of health and Dr Liz Craig in his place for one), as well as making more use of the talent among the Greens (namely Julie-Anne Genter for Transport)*.

Muller is going to lift National's numbers back up but I don't think he'll be able to dig them out of the hole Bridges led them down. He and Kaye stand on different wings of the party and present a good united front, but if their vision for bringing the economy back is just continuing regulation stripping and tax cuts I would hope it's going to be a hard sell.

My predictions hopes for the election at this point are LAB 47%/NAT 36%/GRN 6%/NC 4%/NZF 3%/ACT 1%/TOP 1%.

*Golriz Ghahraman for Immigration Minister would be beautiful, even if it's just to hear talkback radio work itself into a raging froth over it.

[Shrillland]

Jacinda is more than just a stellar crisis manager, her government's policy initiatives have been a net positive in my view as an observer. I do hope and expect her to win a second term, probably aligning with the Greens again. Whether Labour can poll enough to exclude NZ First is unknown.

I agree that on top of leading NZ through all three crises well they've been a net positive overall, but IMO they've only really done a few bits of bare minimum stuff to be better than National, and haven't been anywhere near the transformational Government they campaigned on. Operating budgets of state services have finally crept up over inflation, NZTA have taken a shift away from roads for the sake of roads, WINZ have had a culture change from punitive to restorative, all of which are good things to see, but their flagship policies have flopped, CGT was ruled out and Winston keeps carving out near-corrupt concessions left, right and centre.

To me there is no better Prime Minister material sitting in Parliament at the moment than Ardern, but what I would love to see is some of the backbenchers brought forward to support or replace flailing ministers (David Clark out of health and Dr Liz Craig in his place for one), as well as making more use of the talent among the Greens (namely Julie-Anne Genter for Transport)*.

Muller is going to lift National's numbers back up but I don't think he'll be able to dig them out of the hole Bridges led them down. He and Kaye stand on different wings of the party and present a good united front, but if their vision for bringing the economy back is just continuing regulation stripping and tax cuts I would hope it's going to be a hard sell.

My predictions hopes for the election at this point are LAB 47%/NAT 36%/GRN 6%/NC 4%/NZF 3%/ACT 1%/TOP 1%.

*Golriz Ghahraman for Immigration Minister would be beautiful, even if it's just to hear talkback radio work itself into a raging froth over it.

Honestly, I think just Labour-Greens without depending on NZ First would do wonders, that way Ardern could actually get a lot of things done that she wanted to do.

[Celritannia]

Labour, of course.

[Ravenni]

Honestly, I think just Labour-Greens without depending on NZ First would do wonders, that way Ardern could actually get a lot of things done that she wanted to do.

I agree. Sometimes it feels like it's just using an easy scapegoat to blame NZF (especially if they don't end up in Parliament after the election), but I don't know how anyone can look at Winston and Shane Jones and think they've been a positive addition to this Government's aims. I have little doubt that they're the ones behind the CGT decision, their provinical slush growth fund is really bad optics even when it is doing good, and their presence really dampened the influence that the Greens could have had in this Government.

If I was a right-wing voter I'd be considering voting for NZ First just to keep them above 5%, they've done more to block Labour from achieving things than National have over this term.

[Costa Fierro]

ACT, Maori Party and Dunne all made threshold despite once being new, there’s just very little a non centre party can do to get leverage (unless they’re greens)

All of them were created before the current round of legislation (such as the waka jumping bill) and they all won electorates to get into Parliament. Rodney Hide won Epsom, Peter Dunne won Ohariu, and Pita Sharples as well as some other Maori Party MP's won Maori electorates.

[Costa Fierro]

There's a 5% threshold for party list seats?

I'm thinking if your minor party can't get 5% of the vote, your minor party probably sucks. But I guess it could be reduced to 3% ... or whatever is equivalent to one seat.

Yes. But that's been in there since MMP's inception, there's other laws introduced during this current term that have reduced the chances of new parties entering Parliament even further.

[Radiatia]

If there was ever an election in which I'm likely to sit it out, it's this one.

Hell will freeze over before I vote for Labour or the Greens, that's entirely down to ideology. I do think Ardern has handled Covid-19 reasonably well, and Grant Robertson has been a surprisingly adept Finance Minister - but overall this government has ranged from incompetent to downright authoritarian: Cracking down on freedom of speech and giving police powers (however temporary) to search premises without a warrant are policies that they'd normally be the loudest voices against in opposition.

Which brings me to the opposition, who have been completely and utterly useless. Getting rid of Simon Bridges was a good thing, and the door is now slightly open to me voting for National under Todd Muller, but it's still unlikely. National have shown a disdain for democracy in the past and the reality is that they're just the New Zealand branch of the Chinese Communist Party.

In 2017 I voted for Winston. I'm not sure whether or not I regret it, and any regrets I do have about that decision aren't what people might assume they are. For example, I think going with Labour was the right call, and they've had a couple of decent moments like stopping CGT. But considering they've allowed Labour to run roughshod over our civil liberties and also considering how Shane Jones can't be trusted as far as you can throw him I'd have to be either exceptionally drunk or in an exceptionally good mood with the government to vote NZ First again.

I never thought I'd see the day, but ACT have done reasonably well in opposition, with David Seymour being the true leader of the opposition and the only one with the spine to stand up to St. Jacinda. I'm tempted to vote for them to ensure they have a voice in Parliament but given their crazy economic policies (and us about to enter a 1930s-style Great Depression), I'd be mortified if they actually got into government.

Which means my only choices are on the political fringes, except no.

I seriously thought of voting New Conservative until I had a look at their social media accounts and... no, just no. They are clearly loonies. Maybe I'll revisit them in 2023, but for now it's a no from me. They come across as too much of a tinfoil hat party crossed with a whole lot of wannabe Trumps, complete with a style of communication that simply will not work in New Zealand.

And then there's the other tinfoil hat party, Social Credit, who have some interesting ideas worth listening to and a whole lot of stupid ideas that belong in the confines of a mental health unit - it is basically a party of anti-vaxxers.

So yeah... at this stage I'm either not voting, or deliberately spoiling my ballot.

[Costa Fierro]

I love how people are screaming about their "civil liberties" as if somehow they're inalienable or that their rights matter more than the safety and well-being of the general public. If you feel that your freedoms are being threatened, you don't deserve them. Pure and simple.

[Shrillland]

I love how people are screaming about their "civil liberties" as if somehow they're inalienable or that their rights matter more than the safety and well-being of the general public. If you feel that your freedoms are being threatened, you don't deserve them. Pure and simple.

Well, allowing police to search homes without a warrant runs a little excessive, I must admit.

[Costa Fierro]

I love how people are screaming about their "civil liberties" as if somehow they're inalienable or that their rights matter more than the safety and well-being of the general public. If you feel that your freedoms are being threatened, you don't deserve them. Pure and simple.

Well, allowing police to search homes without a warrant runs a little excessive, I must admit.

Police have had these powers for years, and these are limited in use. In order to use them, they have to actually get permission from fairly high up the chain of command in order to be able to carry them out.

But of course people see this and start screaming about Ardern imposing a socialist dictatorship.

[Drongonia]

I do think Ardern has handled Covid-19 reasonably well, and Grant Robertson has been a surprisingly adept Finance Minister

I was actually really surprised myself, he's handled his new found role really well and being someone who doesn't particularly have a financial background, I have to give him credit for his performance.

but overall this government has ranged from incompetent

LOL kiwibuild, the tree initiative and the provincial growth fund in a nutshell

Cracking down on freedom of speech and giving police powers (however temporary) to search premises without a warrant are policies that they'd normally be the loudest voices against in opposition.

Yeah, although one has to remember that this specific Act exists only to plug the legislative holes that caused the initial lockdown to be classed as unlawful. I still disagree with its premise, nonetheless.

Which brings me to the opposition, who have been completely and utterly useless. Getting rid of Simon Bridges was a good thing, and the door is now slightly open to me voting for National under Todd Muller, but it's still unlikely. National have shown a disdain for democracy in the past and the reality is that they're just the New Zealand branch of the Chinese Communist Party.

Big agree here, I'm hopeful to see Muller deliver. He seems alright, an upgrade over Bridges for sure. We've obviously yet to see him under too much pressure or in charge of anything substantial so far though, so we'll have to wait and see. As for National as a whole, the fresh face means nothing (to the more politically aware) if the background mechanics of the party are the same. I could take the spineless concessions to Labour, the limp immigration policy, and the do-nothing status quo attitude that they have... if they weren't selling us down the river to the Chinese via the CCP.

In 2017 I voted for Winston. I'm not sure whether or not I regret it, and any regrets I do have about that decision aren't what people might assume they are. For example, I think going with Labour was the right call

Obviously I'm in no position to speculate as to what specifically made you go towards NZF, but most of his big promises have been abandoned. I'll agree, it's nice that there's someone within the government who's putting the brakes on Labour/Green every so often, but his biggest policies like immigration reform have gone dead.

considering how Shane Jones can't be trusted as far as you can throw him

I suppose that's something to consider. Some say Winston will continue to live on premium whiskey and bitter cynicism for as long as the public keeps him in office, but I'm personally not so sure. Eventually Winston is going to have to quit politics/pass away and I'd guess that either Shane Jones or Ron Mark will take the reigns over at Winston Peters First New Zealand First, and 50% Jones aren't odds I'd want to run either.

I never thought I'd see the day, but ACT have done reasonably well in opposition, with David Seymour being the true leader of the opposition and the only one with the spine to stand up to St. Jacinda. I'm tempted to vote for them to ensure they have a voice in Parliament but given their crazy economic policies (and us about to enter a 1930s-style Great Depression), I'd be mortified if they actually got into government.

Truly, it's crazy how many Bills passed 119-1 with Seymour being the only one to vote against. I share your sentiment in saying he's the true opposition leader. I'd also have to agree on the economic policies, I wouldn't call them "crazy" per se but they definitely won't work. Plus immigration is a deal-breaker for me and he wants unlimited legal immigration, which from a purely infrastructural perspective, we cannot sustain.

I seriously thought of voting New Conservative until I had a look at their social media accounts and... no, just no. They are clearly loonies. Maybe I'll revisit them in 2023, but for now it's a no from me. They come across as too much of a tinfoil hat party crossed with a whole lot of wannabe Trumps, complete with a style of communication that simply will not work in New Zealand.

I think the reason they come across that way is because they're inviting any old boomer to come and join their campaign/policy team with little regard to optics. It will hurt them for sure, but I wouldn't entirely underestimate their presence, they could even make 3% if Muller/National flops. I said last night when I answered the thread that I'd be voting for them, but depending on how Muller turns out I think I'll be voting National just to have a shot at geting Jacinda/Labour out.

And then there's the other tinfoil hat party, Social Credit, who have some interesting ideas worth listening to and a whole lot of stupid ideas that belong in the confines of a mental health unit - it is basically a party of anti-vaxxers.

^ This. I'm surprised they haven't let their electoral registration lapse, to be honest. It's a bunch of loosely Labour/Independent aligned ex-councillors or those who never made it to council. Basically wannabe career public servants, which is so weird considering half of the rubbish they come out with.

So yeah... at this stage I'm either not voting, or deliberately spoiling my ballot.

Don't entirely blame you.

I love how people are screaming about their "civil liberties" as if somehow they're inalienable or that their rights matter more than the safety and well-being of the general public. If you feel that your freedoms are being threatened, you don't deserve them. Pure and simple.

This is just a stupid statement. Of course rights are alienable (for the most part), but how does police having the power to take possession of any materials they "deem fit" ensure the safety and well-being of the public? Also, the police's no-warrant search powers pertain only to when they suspect there to be drugs/weapons involved or when they believe it to be of utmost importance to their own safety or immediate safety of the public.

[Costa Fierro]

This is just a stupid statement. Of course rights are alienable (for the most part), but how does police having the power to take possession of any materials they "deem fit" ensure the safety and well-being of the public?

Depends on what those materials are and their potential effects on the general public.

Also, the police's no-warrant search powers pertain only to when they suspect there to be drugs/weapons involved or when they believe it to be of utmost importance to their own safety or immediate safety of the public.

In other words, during a pandemic with the possibility of the virus resurfacing in a second wave. That is purely an addition to the list of justifications police are able to use searches without warrant. It's powers already available and the would be subject to review after a much shorter period than the initial two years that had been proposed in the draft of the bill in question.

[Cetacea]

Well, allowing police to search homes without a warrant runs a little excessive, I must admit.

Police have had these powers for years, and these are limited in use. In order to use them, they have to actually get permission from fairly high up the chain of command in order to be able to carry them out.

But of course people see this and start screaming about Ardern imposing a socialist dictatorship.

No they havent, police need to have a warrant OR permission to enter.

[Costa Fierro]

Police have had these powers for years, and these are limited in use. In order to use them, they have to actually get permission from fairly high up the chain of command in order to be able to carry them out.

But of course people see this and start screaming about Ardern imposing a socialist dictatorship.

No they havent, police need to have a warrant OR permission to enter.

They have these powers, and they have had them for years.

[Ravenni]

Police have had these powers for years, and these are limited in use. In order to use them, they have to actually get permission from fairly high up the chain of command in order to be able to carry them out.

But of course people see this and start screaming about Ardern imposing a socialist dictatorship.

No they havent, police need to have a warrant OR permission to enter.

There's a few cases where that isn't true. The Search and Surveillance Act 2012 gives police the power to enter and/or search property without a warrant or permission for a lot of reasons - to make an arrest (§7), to avoid loss of a fleeing offender or evidence (§8), to prevent injury to any person (§14), to prevent serious damage to or loss of property (§14), to seize illegal arms (§18), to seize controlled drugs or precursor substances (§20), or in cases of espionage (§25). All use of warrantless entry powers under the Act remain under the oversight of the Commissioner or a Police employee designated to receive reports of that kind by the Commissioner as soon as practical (§169), the same as for entry under the Public Health Response Bill.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

No they havent, police need to have a warrant OR permission to enter.

There's a few cases where that isn't true. The Search and Surveillance Act 2012 gives police the power to enter and/or search property without a warrant or permission for a lot of reasons - to make an arrest (§7), to avoid loss of a fleeing offender or evidence (§8), to prevent injury to any person (§14), to prevent serious damage to or loss of property (§14), to seize illegal arms (§18), to seize controlled drugs or precursor substances (§20), or in cases of espionage (§25). All use of warrantless entry powers under the Act remain under the oversight of the Commissioner or a Police employee designated to receive reports of that kind by the Commissioner as soon as practical (§169), the same as for entry under the Public Health Response Bill.

I don't imagine there are many places a criminal could enter a house to escape arrest. That seems a bit easy on the crim.