SCOTUS grants cert, will hear same sex marriage case

[Demara]

From a TPM article on the DOMA case:

“I don’t think justices get in this position very often because everybody knows what the judgement of history is going to be,” Lucas Powe, a Supreme Court historian at the University of Texas-Austin School of Law, told TPM before the court’s announcement. “I don’t think think anybody doubts that gay marriage is coming — it’s only the issue of time. This is one of those times where no matter what you think you know you’re going to be wrong if you oppose it.”

The Supreme Court has not weighed in on gay marriage, leaving the outcome uncertain, but earlier rulings in favor of gay rights give hope to proponents of marriage equality. The four Democratic-appointed justices are widely expected to strike down DOMA. Justice Anthony Kennedy, a presumable swing vote, has written passionately against laws persecuting gays.

“I think Kennedy’s vote is very secure,” Powe said. “I think there are comfortably five votes to overturn DOMA. … Kennedy has a libertarian streak — he has written the key gay rights opinions and I think he will continue to do so.”

Brian Fitzpatrick, a professor at Vanderbilt University School of Law and former clerk to Justice Antonin Scalia, told TPM ahead of the announcement that “conservatives are probably afraid they will lose Justice Kennedy.”

The vote of Chief Justice John Roberts is also uncertain. He’s believed to be personally skeptical of gay marriage, but may be motivated to get on the right side of history.

“I would expect Roberts to add to his liberal credibility by joining the majority opinion,” Powe said, even though “he’s a conservative Catholic, he comes out of the Republican social conservative movement, so I assume he’s against gay marriage.”

I have no idea how correct or anything this is, but certainly viewpoints to consider. Positive, at least.

[Dyakovo]

The United States Supreme Court has just granted cert over two cases, both a legal challenge to California's Proposition 8, emerging from the 9th Circuit, and a challenge to the federal Defense of Marriage Act, emerging from the 1st Circuit. These cases are being consolodated into one, and will address the constitutionality of state and federal same sex marriage bans.

NSG, thoughts and predictions?

I'm going to reserve my judgment a bit until I see how the Court shapes up after the lame duck session.

While I'm hoping for them to overturn prop 8 and doma, I'm expecting it to be 5-4 in favor of upholding them.

[Choronzon]

The Supreme Court has not weighed in on gay marriage, leaving the outcome uncertain, but earlier rulings in favor of gay rights give hope to proponents of marriage equality. The four Democratic-appointed justices are widely expected to strike down DOMA. Justice Anthony Kennedy, a presumable swing vote, has written passionately against laws persecuting gays.

“I think Kennedy’s vote is very secure,” Powe said. “I think there are comfortably five votes to overturn DOMA. … Kennedy has a libertarian streak — he has written the key gay rights opinions and I think he will continue to do so.”

Well thats interesting.

[You-Gi-Owe]

The United States Supreme Court has just granted cert over two cases, both a legal challenge to California's Proposition 8, emerging from the 9th Circuit, and a challenge to the federal Defense of Marriage Act, emerging from the 1st Circuit. These cases are being consolodated into one, and will address the constitutionality of state and federal same sex marriage bans.

NSG, thoughts and predictions?

I'm going to reserve my judgment a bit until I see how the Court shapes up after the lame duck session.

Since you ask, I'm going to say that even though they are consolidating the cases, they will split the decision, California's Prop 8 would be Constitutional, but DOMA will be Unconstitutional and therefore render Prop. 8 mute.

[Ceannairceach]

The United States Supreme Court has just granted cert over two cases, both a legal challenge to California's Proposition 8, emerging from the 9th Circuit, and a challenge to the federal Defense of Marriage Act, emerging from the 1st Circuit. These cases are being consolodated into one, and will address the constitutionality of state and federal same sex marriage bans.

NSG, thoughts and predictions?

I'm going to reserve my judgment a bit until I see how the Court shapes up after the lame duck session.

Since you ask, I'm going to say that even though they are consolidating the cases, they will split the decision, California's Prop 8 would be Constitutional, but DOMA will be Unconstitutional and therefore render Prop. 8 mute.

Now that is an interesting theory.

[Antiliberalbis]

It can go either way. Just cross your fingers and hope they vote they way you want them to.

[Neo Art]

I'm going to go out on a major limb, and I recognize that making predictions like this can come back to bite you in the ass, but here it is.

If SCOTUS overturns prop 8 and DOMA, and finds in favor of gay marriage, the majority opinion will be written by Ginsburg, and it will be her last major decision on the bench.

The woman is, quite literally, dying. She doesn't have much time left, on the bench or this earth. If this particular battle is won, then she'll be the one to write it.

[Franklin Delano Bluth]

i think there is a good chance of it going the right way. the only defense of banning gay marriage is religion and tradition.

And even then, it becomes a matter of whose tradition.

Same-sex marriages involving "two-spirits" among certain Native American peoples (they're really not comparable culturally to homosexuals in Western society, but that's irrelevant because they're still same-sex marriages) were relatively common and accepted.

Marriage inequality is fundamentally racist in character: it assumes the only "tradition" that matters is that of white European conquerors.

[Ashmoria]

From a TPM article on the DOMA case:

“I don’t think justices get in this position very often because everybody knows what the judgement of history is going to be,” Lucas Powe, a Supreme Court historian at the University of Texas-Austin School of Law, told TPM before the court’s announcement. “I don’t think think anybody doubts that gay marriage is coming — it’s only the issue of time. This is one of those times where no matter what you think you know you’re going to be wrong if you oppose it.”

The Supreme Court has not weighed in on gay marriage, leaving the outcome uncertain, but earlier rulings in favor of gay rights give hope to proponents of marriage equality. The four Democratic-appointed justices are widely expected to strike down DOMA. Justice Anthony Kennedy, a presumable swing vote, has written passionately against laws persecuting gays.

“I think Kennedy’s vote is very secure,” Powe said. “I think there are comfortably five votes to overturn DOMA. … Kennedy has a libertarian streak — he has written the key gay rights opinions and I think he will continue to do so.”

Brian Fitzpatrick, a professor at Vanderbilt University School of Law and former clerk to Justice Antonin Scalia, told TPM ahead of the announcement that “conservatives are probably afraid they will lose Justice Kennedy.”

The vote of Chief Justice John Roberts is also uncertain. He’s believed to be personally skeptical of gay marriage, but may be motivated to get on the right side of history.

“I would expect Roberts to add to his liberal credibility by joining the majority opinion,” Powe said, even though “he’s a conservative Catholic, he comes out of the Republican social conservative movement, so I assume he’s against gay marriage.”

I have no idea how correct or anything this is, but certainly viewpoints to consider. Positive, at least.

justice roberts religion (there are 6 catholics on the court) shouldnt have any bearing on his interpretation of the constitution. there are many many things that are banned by the church that are perfectly legal in the US.

[Tekania]

Good, we'll finally get a SCOTUS rulling on a SSM case. I just hope it's the right one.

[Free Soviets]

I'm going to go out on a major limb, and I recognize that making predictions like this can come back to bite you in the ass, but here it is.

If SCOTUS overturns prop 8 and DOMA, and finds in favor of gay marriage, the majority opinion will be written by Ginsburg, and it will be her last major decision on the bench.

The woman is, quite literally, dying. She doesn't have much time left, on the bench or this earth. If this particular battle is won, then she'll be the one to write it.

now that would be a way to go out.

[Tmutarakhan]

Fucking Scalia, that's the only reason i'm nervous at this right now

Actually, I'm less concerned about Scalia than I am Roberts, Alito and Thomas. Scalia tends to favor strict interpretations of the Constitution. That could lead him to find in favor of gay marriage. The other three aren't conservatives. They are corporatists.

No, Scalia favors whichever kind of interpretation of the Constitution will yield the result that he desires in any particular case. He will vote against us no matter what he has to argue to get there.

[Choronzon]

I'm going to go out on a major limb, and I recognize that making predictions like this can come back to bite you in the ass, but here it is.

If SCOTUS overturns prop 8 and DOMA, and finds in favor of gay marriage, the majority opinion will be written by Ginsburg, and it will be her last major decision on the bench.

The woman is, quite literally, dying. She doesn't have much time left, on the bench or this earth. If this particular battle is won, then she'll be the one to write it.

Wasn't there a report years back that Ginsberg was waiting for the inevitable gay marriage case before she resigned?

[Dyakovo]

The United States Supreme Court has just granted cert over two cases, both a legal challenge to California's Proposition 8, emerging from the 9th Circuit, and a challenge to the federal Defense of Marriage Act, emerging from the 1st Circuit. These cases are being consolodated into one, and will address the constitutionality of state and federal same sex marriage bans.

NSG, thoughts and predictions?

I'm going to reserve my judgment a bit until I see how the Court shapes up after the lame duck session.

Since you ask, I'm going to say that even though they are consolidating the cases, they will split the decision, California's Prop 8 would be Constitutional, but DOMA will be Unconstitutional and therefore render Prop. 8 mute.

Hunh... Completely not what I was expecting...

[Ashmoria]

i think there is a good chance of it going the right way. the only defense of banning gay marriage is religion and tradition.

And even then, it becomes a matter of whose tradition.

Same-sex marriages involving "two-spirits" among certain Native American peoples (they're really not comparable culturally to homosexuals in Western society, but that's irrelevant because they're still same-sex marriages) were relatively common and accepted.

Marriage inequality is fundamentally racist in character: it assumes the only "tradition" that matters is that of white European conquerors.

well yeah. and who cares about tradition if everyone has moved over to a new way of thinking about marriage?

[You-Gi-Owe]

Since you ask, I'm going to say that even though they are consolidating the cases, they will split the decision, California's Prop 8 would be Constitutional, but DOMA will be Unconstitutional and therefore render Prop. 8 mute.

Hunh... Completely not what I was expecting...

Once a case gets to the Supremes, you can make a reasoned wager, but it's still a Crap Shoot.

[Neo Art]

The United States Supreme Court has just granted cert over two cases, both a legal challenge to California's Proposition 8, emerging from the 9th Circuit, and a challenge to the federal Defense of Marriage Act, emerging from the 1st Circuit. These cases are being consolodated into one, and will address the constitutionality of state and federal same sex marriage bans.

NSG, thoughts and predictions?

I'm going to reserve my judgment a bit until I see how the Court shapes up after the lame duck session.

Since you ask, I'm going to say that even though they are consolidating the cases, they will split the decision, California's Prop 8 would be Constitutional, but DOMA will be Unconstitutional and therefore render Prop. 8 mute.

That...makes no sense what so ever. I mean, ugh, there are legal manuevers that could result in DOMA being struck down but Prop 8 being constitutional, but they're complex and I highly doubt that it's what you have in mind, because that very particularly narrow set of circumstances would not render prop 8 "moot"

[Greed and Death]

I'm going to go out on a major limb, and I recognize that making predictions like this can come back to bite you in the ass, but here it is.

If SCOTUS overturns prop 8 and DOMA, and finds in favor of gay marriage, the majority opinion will be written by Ginsburg, and it will be her last major decision on the bench.

The woman is, quite literally, dying. She doesn't have much time left, on the bench or this earth. If this particular battle is won, then she'll be the one to write it.

On a 5-4 split along traditional lines only Kennedy ( or Roberts though I don't see it) would out rank her.
Kennedy seems to type to let her go out with a bang.

[You-Gi-Owe]

Since you ask, I'm going to say that even though they are consolidating the cases, they will split the decision, California's Prop 8 would be Constitutional, but DOMA will be Unconstitutional and therefore render Prop. 8 mute.

That...makes no sense what so ever.

Neither did the ObamaCare decision. They kept the individual mandate that wasn't a tax, by calling it a tax.

[Ashmoria]

I'm going to go out on a major limb, and I recognize that making predictions like this can come back to bite you in the ass, but here it is.

If SCOTUS overturns prop 8 and DOMA, and finds in favor of gay marriage, the majority opinion will be written by Ginsburg, and it will be her last major decision on the bench.

The woman is, quite literally, dying. She doesn't have much time left, on the bench or this earth. If this particular battle is won, then she'll be the one to write it.

i havent read any reports on her health recently. what is she dying of?

[Ashmoria]

That...makes no sense what so ever.

Neither did the ObamaCare decision. They kept the individual mandate that wasn't a tax, by calling it a tax.

lol

good point.

they could justify anything.

but striking down DOMA doesnt legallize gay marriage across the country does it?

[Sionis Prioratus]

I remember that when Lawrence v. Texas (the "sodomy" case) was awaiting its decision, everybody was "OF COURSE they will strike same-sex-only sodomy bans, but NO WAY IN HELL they will overturn Bowers v. Hardwick"

Then the decision came, and overturn Bowers v. Hardwick they did. 5-4, authored by Kennedy. I'm hopeful.

[Neo Art]

I'm going to go out on a major limb, and I recognize that making predictions like this can come back to bite you in the ass, but here it is.

If SCOTUS overturns prop 8 and DOMA, and finds in favor of gay marriage, the majority opinion will be written by Ginsburg, and it will be her last major decision on the bench.

The woman is, quite literally, dying. She doesn't have much time left, on the bench or this earth. If this particular battle is won, then she'll be the one to write it.

i havent read any reports on her health recently. what is she dying of?

Being 80.

Also, pancreatic cancer.

[Sdaeriji]

I'm going to go out on a major limb, and I recognize that making predictions like this can come back to bite you in the ass, but here it is.

If SCOTUS overturns prop 8 and DOMA, and finds in favor of gay marriage, the majority opinion will be written by Ginsburg, and it will be her last major decision on the bench.

The woman is, quite literally, dying. She doesn't have much time left, on the bench or this earth. If this particular battle is won, then she'll be the one to write it.

i havent read any reports on her health recently. what is she dying of?

Cancer.

[Trotskylvania]

That...makes no sense what so ever.

Neither did the ObamaCare decision. They kept the individual mandate that wasn't a tax, by calling it a tax.

No, you're over simplifying the holding. The holding was that the fine for not having health insurance was power encompassed by the taxation authority, which is an eminently reasonable argument.