Coronavirus Thread IV: Legends, Laments and Lockdowns

[South Odreria 2]

He does in fact have a lot of regard for stuff like tyrannical dictatorship, that’s why he’s worse than trump.

To be fair Trump does to. Hes praised President Xi and and Putin.

Yeah, Trump has an excessive fondness for dictatorship, but Bolsonaro is actively trying to establish one.

[San Lumen]

To be fair Trump does to. Hes praised President Xi and and Putin.

Yeah, Trump has an excessive fondness for dictatorship, but Bolsonaro is actively trying to establish one.

Hopefully hes not reelected or forced to resign

[Rojava Free State]

He does in fact have a lot of regard for stuff like tyrannical dictatorship, that’s why he’s worse than trump.

To be fair Trump does to. Hes praised President Xi and and Putin.

Trump isn't an ideologue though. While he scapegoated minorities alot during the election, I doubt very highly the man really wants to set up a concentration camp for bladk and brown people, whereas bolsanaro legitimately hates black people to death and wants to shoot gays.

A jair bolsanaro dictatorship would be akin to Pinochet chile. A trump dictatorship would be a cheap dime store ripoff of Las Vegas where you gotta say Trump has the biggest brain known to man or you get the guillotine.



Trump: Say I'm right about math or I'll use this thing to cut off 60% of your body.

Andrew Cuomo: Idk if those numbers are really accurate.

Trump: I swear to God I will end 100% of your life.

Andrew Cuomo: alright that sounds more correct.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

The curve of new infection seems only to flatten very slowly in the US despite the heavy lockdowns. Of whom some are soon to be lifted again.

It's according to plan, honestly.

The plan was restrictions to slow the growth and keep the peak within hospital capacity. That happened.
Then when the peak was known, restrictions would be gradually lifted (for some reason) providing hospital capacity was not exceeded. That also seems to have happened.
The virus will just keep sickening people, and killing some of them, in both the US and UK. Because restrictions aren't coming back on, in fact they'll come off more as growing (presumptive) immunity in the population makes that possible.

Neither the US nor the UK ever intended to flatten the curve completely, it was only ever about delaying and keeping down the peak.
Deaths continuing is part of the plan, and it was from the start.

Honestly, I think Australia started with the same strategy, but for some random reason it worked much better than expected, to the point we could literally eradicate the virus in the country, if we chose that now. But we're not going to do that. We're just going to mindlessly follow the US and lift restrictions "because we can". But I shouldn't grumble, we really did get lucky.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

https://apple.news/AM-sXW39JQQWlkxbuqtLG8A

Trump has suspended all travel from Brazil due to its rapidly rising case numbers. One of the few things he’s done I agree with

I'm actually surprised travel was allowed until now.

The US and Canada have agreed to close their border. Quite right since they have similar rates of infection, it's in both their interests.
Travel from the UK (except US citizens) has been banned for a while. Iran, and a few others.

Some travel by non-citizens is still permitted from Mexico

Not only do I agree with Trump, I'm positively impressed. This was a golden opportunity for him to build a 'virtual wall' between US and Mexico, but he didn't take the bait. Mexico has low rates of infection (a tenth of the US as far as anyone knows), so the policy is based on science not xenophobia. Well done Trump!

[Aureumterra]

He does in fact have a lot of regard for stuff like tyrannical dictatorship, that’s why he’s worse than trump.

To be fair Trump does to. Hes praised President Xi and and Putin.

I still have yet to see any actual evidence for the leftist claims that Trump "sucks up" to Kim and Xi, because his foreign policy has been more hostile to China than the previous administrations. It just seems like thing doomers say, along with "democracy is in a backslide around the world!" and proceeding to list random right wing leaders

[Nobel Hobos 2]

To be fair Trump does to. Hes praised President Xi and and Putin.

I still have yet to see any actual evidence for the leftist claims that Trump "sucks up" to Kim and Xi, because his foreign policy has been more hostile to China than the previous administrations. It just seems like thing doomers say, along with "democracy is in a backslide around the world!" and proceeding to list random right wing leaders

Maybe your problem is that you see actual lurches toward dictatorship (eg Putin, Erdogan) as nothing more than right wing policies firmly applied.

[Nanatsu no Tsuki]

I found this site interesting: https://usafacts.org/visualizations/cor ... pread-map/

It informs not just on the spread of SARS-CoV-2, how it spread since the first confirmed case in January 2020, how many confirmed cases there are, deaths associated with CoVID19 and where unemployment benefits are being paid in the US, among other things.

[The Black Forrest]

To be fair Trump does to. Hes praised President Xi and and Putin.

I still have yet to see any actual evidence for the leftist claims that Trump "sucks up" to Kim and Xi, because his foreign policy has been more hostile to China than the previous administrations. It just seems like thing doomers say, along with "democracy is in a backslide around the world!" and proceeding to list random right wing leaders

What did he trade for all those Ivanka trade-marks granted during and after their visit?

[Nobel Hobos 2]

I still have yet to see any actual evidence for the leftist claims that Trump "sucks up" to Kim and Xi, because his foreign policy has been more hostile to China than the previous administrations. It just seems like thing doomers say, along with "democracy is in a backslide around the world!" and proceeding to list random right wing leaders

What did he trade for all those Ivanka trade-marks granted during and after their visit?

That's small change isn't it? Could easily have been a friendly gift from Putin. No quid pro quo!

[Vassenor]

To be fair Trump does to. Hes praised President Xi and and Putin.

I still have yet to see any actual evidence for the leftist claims that Trump "sucks up" to Kim and Xi, because his foreign policy has been more hostile to China than the previous administrations. It just seems like thing doomers say, along with "democracy is in a backslide around the world!" and proceeding to list random right wing leaders

Rmemeber, Trump never claimed to idolise Xi and wished he could be president for life like Xi.

[Greater vakolicci haven]

https://apple.news/AM-sXW39JQQWlkxbuqtLG8A

Trump has suspended all travel from Brazil due to its rapidly rising case numbers. One of the few things he’s done I agree with

I'm actually surprised travel was allowed until now.

The US and Canada have agreed to close their border. Quite right since they have similar rates of infection, it's in both their interests.
Travel from the UK (except US citizens) has been banned for a while. Iran, and a few others.

Some travel by non-citizens is still permitted from Mexico

Not only do I agree with Trump, I'm positively impressed. This was a golden opportunity for him to build a 'virtual wall' between US and Mexico, but he didn't take the bait. Mexico has low rates of infection (a tenth of the US as far as anyone knows), so the policy is based on science not xenophobia. Well done Trump!

This has not exactly done wonders for open borders has it?

[The Lone Alliance]

So what I'm gathering virus cases are continuing to increase but hospitalizations are starting to go down in the US? I wonder if the lockdown promoted a milder varient of the virus to spread while the more severe version of the virus, with it's crippling abilities, was less able to survive the weeks of no new victims?

Then why didn't the nurses and doctors at large didn't get the severe cases on a large scale then?

Really there's still so many questions.

[Salandriagado]

So what I'm gathering virus cases are continuing to increase but hospitalizations are starting to go down in the US? I wonder if the lockdown promoted a milder varient of the virus to spread while the more severe version of the virus, with it's crippling abilities, was less able to survive the weeks of no new victims?

Then why didn't the nurses and doctors at large didn't get the severe cases on a large scale then?

Really there's still so many questions.

No. What happened is:

1. The lockdowns reduced case numbers.
2. This leads to reduced hospitalisations, 2 weeks down the line (that is: now).
3. Testing continued to expand, increasing the number of confirmed cases.
4. Lockdown release probably led to higher actual case numbers (now).

[The Lone Alliance]

So what I'm gathering virus cases are continuing to increase but hospitalizations are starting to go down in the US? I wonder if the lockdown promoted a milder varient of the virus to spread while the more severe version of the virus, with it's crippling abilities, was less able to survive the weeks of no new victims?

Then why didn't the nurses and doctors at large didn't get the severe cases on a large scale then?

Really there's still so many questions.

No. What happened is:

1. The lockdowns reduced case numbers.
2. This leads to reduced hospitalisations, 2 weeks down the line (that is: now).
3. Testing continued to expand, increasing the number of confirmed cases.
4. Lockdown release probably led to higher actual case numbers (now).

Except 5. Increased cases leading to a return to mass hospitalizations.
Doesn't seem to be happening in the places that have been out of lockdown for longer than 2 weeks.

People have been talking about Florida and other states fudging numbers and data on new cases, but it's far harder to cover up new hospitalizations because there would at least be physical evidence there.

[Lost Memories]

So what I'm gathering virus cases are continuing to increase but hospitalizations are starting to go down in the US? I wonder if the lockdown promoted a milder varient of the virus to spread while the more severe version of the virus, with it's crippling abilities, was less able to survive the weeks of no new victims?

Then why didn't the nurses and doctors at large didn't get the severe cases on a large scale then?

Really there's still so many questions.

There is no need to go bioengeneer/plague inc and talk about mutations to explain something normal given the available data.

When the virus spreads for the first time, there is no one recovering from it, as recovery can take up to one month or more.
After some time, the first ones who got infected start to recover. While the new ones have one month ahead of them to recover.
New infected - recovered = possible decreare of hospitalization if there are more recovered than new infected.

Also, not all new infected cases need to get hospitalized, so it's very likely for the new recovered to outnumber the new hospitalized, while the new infected may still be high.


Basic informations:
time to show symptoms after infection: 5 days by mean, range as high as more than one week
time for the symptoms to get bad enough to go to an hospital: around one more week
time to recover: around one month
rate of people needing hospitalization over all the infected: 20%


(02 March 2020) https://link.springer.com/article/10.10 ... 20-05987-7

[Nobel Hobos 2]

No. What happened is:

1. The lockdowns reduced case numbers.
2. This leads to reduced hospitalisations, 2 weeks down the line (that is: now).
3. Testing continued to expand, increasing the number of confirmed cases.
4. Lockdown release probably led to higher actual case numbers (now).

Except 5. Increased cases leading to a return to mass hospitalizations.
Doesn't seem to be happening in the places that have been out of lockdown for longer than 2 weeks.

People have been talking about Florida and other states fudging numbers and data on new cases, but it's far harder to cover up new hospitalizations because there would at least be physical evidence there.

There could be a hospitalization bias.
Not everyone who is sick goes to hospital (what it will cost them is surely a factor, has there been any change there?)
Not everyone who goes to hospital gets admitted (has there been any change in hospital admission standards?)

But regardless of that, it could be that not much has changed despite the "end of lockdown". There were people not observing it before the "end" was announced. Also there would be people now, exercising precautions (a voluntary lockdown if you will). Not hospitalization bias, but this explanation that only some people have actually changed their behavior, accounts for the expected spike not occurring.

One thing clearly has changed in those states: more businesses are open. Perhaps after all, just requiring or recommending precautions in businesses, but not shutting them entirely, would have been the best approach. (Then there's Sweden...)

[New Bremerton]

https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/527259

New Covid-19 cases hit triple digits again, mostly detected at immigration depots

Published 5:34 pm
Modified 6:45 pm
17

CORONAVIRUS | Malaysia has recorded a spike of 172 new Covid-19 cases today, most of which are detected at three immigration detention facilities in the country.

Health Ministry director-general Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah said of the 172 cases, five were imported, while 159 cases involved non-citizens. Of the non-citizens, 112 cases were detected at the immigration depots.

“Members of the public need not worry because these immigration depots are places isolated from the public and controlled by the authorities.

“There are eight local citizens who tested positive today,” he said at his daily media briefing in Putrajaya today.

Malaysia had recorded a double-digit number of daily new cases for the past 21 days.

The last time Malaysia recorded a triple-digit number of cases was on May 3 with 122 cases detected over a 24-hour period up to noon that day.

Noor Hisham today said 1,757 people (1,630 detainees and 127 staff) have been tested at the Semenyih immigration depot so far of which 66 tested positive, 753 tested negative while the results for 938 tests are still pending.

Of the 66 confirmed cases in Semenyih, 17 new cases were reported today including an administrative staff member there.

At the Sepang immigration depot, Noor Hisham said 1,449 samples had been taken up to noon today of which 36 tested positive including 29 new cases.

So far, 540 have tested negative and 873 are pending results.

As for the Bukit Jalil immigration depot, Noor Hisham said 1,536 people have been sampled (1,422 detainees and 114 staff), of which 126 cases have tested positive, 514 cases tested negative, and 896 samples pending results.

Altogether, the 227 cases at the three immigration depots involve13 nationalities.

They comprise citizens from Bangladesh (53), India (41), Indonesia (38), Myanmar (37), Pakistan (28), China (17), Cambodia (4), Nepal (3) Sri Lanka (2), Philippines (1), Libya (1), Egypt (1) and Syria (1).

Noor Hisham said contract tracing efforts are underway to contain the spread of the disease.

“The Health Ministry will continue to cooperate with the Immigration Department, the police and other government agencies to handle the Covid-19 cases involving immigration detention depots,” he said.

Outside of the depots, Noor Hisham said a new cluster had been detected at a construction site in Kuala Lumpur.

Meanwhile, he said 34 Covid-19 patients had recovered and were discharged in the 24-hour period up to noon today, bringing the total discharges to 5,979 (89.6 percent of total confirmed cases).

This means Malaysia still has 1,323 active Covid-19 cases. Eight patients are being treated in intensive care units of which four require respiratory support.

No new deaths have been reported today thus the death toll remains at 115.

Malaysia has recorded a huge spike in new cases today, almost all of them detected at three immigration detention facilities housing undocumented workers. Because these individuals have already been detained, there is next to no risk of these clusters spilling out into the wider community. The question Malaysia has to ask itself is this: Why were these undocumented migrant workers even allowed into our countries in the first place all these years?

The unbridled practice of neoliberalism is why. Unscrupulous employers and corrupt government officials have been slipping these illegals into our country right under our noses, and now we're paying the price. Jobs that should have gone to Malaysians and legal foreigners alike have gone to these illegals all these years. Now, our hospitals and healthcare workers are going to be expending their resources and manpower toward treating these illegals, putting Malaysians with coronavirus or some other ailment at risk of not being treated if the number of cases and hospitalizations ever exceeds our medical capacity.

I blame these illegals for being here illegally in the first place, but I blame employers and the government a hundred times more. These people should all be in jail on charges of hiring illegal migrant workers and graft. They're the reason for this second wave. But knowing what our leaders, politicians, and officials are like, I won't hold my breath.

Donald Trump is absolutely right to adopt a zero-tolerance policy toward illegal immigration in his country, minus the family separations whenever possible. Illegal immigration cannot and should not be tolerated under ANY circumstances and ALL illegals MUST be deported, no ifs, no buts, and anyone who's complicit in human trafficking and illegal employment should be apprehended and shown NO MERCY in a court of law. This applies to Malaysia, Hong Kong, and other countries as much as it does to the United States. We must take back control of our borders. Malaysia First.

[Rojava Free State]

Except 5. Increased cases leading to a return to mass hospitalizations.
Doesn't seem to be happening in the places that have been out of lockdown for longer than 2 weeks.

People have been talking about Florida and other states fudging numbers and data on new cases, but it's far harder to cover up new hospitalizations because there would at least be physical evidence there.

There could be a hospitalization bias.
Not everyone who is sick goes to hospital (what it will cost them is surely a factor, has there been any change there?)
Not everyone who goes to hospital gets admitted (has there been any change in hospital admission standards?)

But regardless of that, it could be that not much has changed despite the "end of lockdown". There were people not observing it before the "end" was announced. Also there would be people now, exercising precautions (a voluntary lockdown if you will). Not hospitalization bias, but this explanation that only some people have actually changed their behavior, accounts for the expected spike not occurring.

One thing clearly has changed in those states: more businesses are open. Perhaps after all, just requiring or recommending precautions in businesses, but not shutting them entirely, would have been the best approach. (Then there's Sweden...)

Maybe the heat does make it harder for it to spread. I know everyone thinks "no way, Trump said it so it has to be wrong," but other respiratory viruses have a hard time in hot weather, so is it really unlikely COVID does too?

[Rojava Free State]

To be fair Trump does to. Hes praised President Xi and and Putin.

I still have yet to see any actual evidence for the leftist claims that Trump "sucks up" to Kim and Xi, because his foreign policy has been more hostile to China than the previous administrations. It just seems like thing doomers say, along with "democracy is in a backslide around the world!" and proceeding to list random right wing leaders

Trump was so tough on xi that he claimed xi did a great job handling the virus until he needed a scapegoat for his own fuck ups.

[Vassenor]

There could be a hospitalization bias.
Not everyone who is sick goes to hospital (what it will cost them is surely a factor, has there been any change there?)
Not everyone who goes to hospital gets admitted (has there been any change in hospital admission standards?)

But regardless of that, it could be that not much has changed despite the "end of lockdown". There were people not observing it before the "end" was announced. Also there would be people now, exercising precautions (a voluntary lockdown if you will). Not hospitalization bias, but this explanation that only some people have actually changed their behavior, accounts for the expected spike not occurring.

One thing clearly has changed in those states: more businesses are open. Perhaps after all, just requiring or recommending precautions in businesses, but not shutting them entirely, would have been the best approach. (Then there's Sweden...)

Maybe the heat does make it harder for it to spread. I know everyone thinks "no way, Trump said it so it has to be wrong," but other respiratory viruses have a hard time in hot weather, so is it really unlikely COVID does too?

Or, you know, we're looking at how it's had no real trouble spreading in countries with warmer climates and based it on that.

[Rojava Free State]

Maybe the heat does make it harder for it to spread. I know everyone thinks "no way, Trump said it so it has to be wrong," but other respiratory viruses have a hard time in hot weather, so is it really unlikely COVID does too?

Or, you know, we're looking at how it's had no real trouble spreading in countries with warmer climates and based it on that.

Which is why the philippines has one third the population of America but far less infections and deaths. Same with India and South Africa.
Yes coronavirus can spread in hot climates, but many studies suggest it cant spread as effectively, such as this study from MIT: https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/ ... ead-boston

I never said it won't spread at all. I just said it may not spread as quickly as in a colder climate.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

There could be a hospitalization bias.
Not everyone who is sick goes to hospital (what it will cost them is surely a factor, has there been any change there?)
Not everyone who goes to hospital gets admitted (has there been any change in hospital admission standards?)

But regardless of that, it could be that not much has changed despite the "end of lockdown". There were people not observing it before the "end" was announced. Also there would be people now, exercising precautions (a voluntary lockdown if you will). Not hospitalization bias, but this explanation that only some people have actually changed their behavior, accounts for the expected spike not occurring.

One thing clearly has changed in those states: more businesses are open. Perhaps after all, just requiring or recommending precautions in businesses, but not shutting them entirely, would have been the best approach. (Then there's Sweden...)

Maybe the heat does make it harder for it to spread. I know everyone thinks "no way, Trump said it so it has to be wrong," but other respiratory viruses have a hard time in hot weather, so is it really unlikely COVID does too?

Heat and high humidity I think. It's not clear which matters more.

There is a rather obvious pattern of the North of the US getting hit harder. But Louisiana does stand out from that pattern.

[Rojava Free State]

Maybe the heat does make it harder for it to spread. I know everyone thinks "no way, Trump said it so it has to be wrong," but other respiratory viruses have a hard time in hot weather, so is it really unlikely COVID does too?

Heat and high humidity I think. It's not clear which matters more.

There is a rather obvious pattern of the North of the US getting hit harder. But Louisiana does stand out from that pattern.

I know Florida could doctor their data, but there's only so much you can manipulate evidence. If florida was getting as bad as Italy, it would be pretty hard to hide all the sick and dying people, and since we aren't seeing that, I'm guessing Florida isn't getting hit too bad right now.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

Heat and high humidity I think. It's not clear which matters more.

There is a rather obvious pattern of the North of the US getting hit harder. But Louisiana does stand out from that pattern.

I know Florida could doctor their data, but there's only so much you can manipulate evidence. If florida was getting as bad as Italy, it would be pretty hard to hide all the sick and dying people, and since we aren't seeing that, I'm guessing Florida isn't getting hit too bad right now.

Yes, I'm pleasantly surprised.

Though I know there will be idiots whose idea of analysis is "which state is worst and which state is best" who will point to lockdown in New York with most cases, and no lockdown in North Dakota with very few cases ... and they'll say "LOOK, the Democrat Lockdown CAUSED THE BAT PLAGUE!!" ... even so I don't care. I want you all to be safe and well, whether you elected Dems or Pubs in your state, whether it's cool or warm there, whether you have lockdown on not.

I am sure that lockdowns worked, and that some restrictions are still best, in every state really. And by November there will be plenty of evidence one way or the other.