The 2019-2020 Coronavirus outbreak thread

[Nanatsu no Tsuki]

One reason to distrust numbers is the rate of death is almost exactly 2.1% every day, which is statistically unlikely.

date	total infected	total deaths	death rate	one decimal
Jan. 30th	9692	213	2.198%	2.2%
Jan. 31st	11791	259	2.197%	2.2%
Feb. 1st	14380	304	2.114%	2.1%
Feb. 2nd	17205	361	2.098%	2.1%
Feb. 3rd	20438	425	2.079%	2.1%
Feb. 4th	24324	490	2.014%	2.0%
Feb. 5th	28018	563	2.009%	2.0%
Feb. 6th	31161	636	2.041%	2.0%
Feb. 7th	34546	722	2.090%	2.1%
Feb. 8th	37198	811	2.180%	2.2%

The ten-day data show the death rate is not "almost exactly" 2.1% but slightly fluctuated around it. That is not odd.

All date come from the daily reports of the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China.
report lists (Chinese language version only)

I hope you know that many people are skeptical of anything coming from official Chinese govt channels.

[Zixu]

One reason to distrust numbers is the rate of death is almost exactly 2.1% every day, which is statistically unlikely.

......
The ten-day data show the death rate is not "almost exactly" 2.1% but slightly fluctuated around it. That is not odd.
......

I hope you know that many people are skeptical of anything coming from official Chinese govt channels.

Yes, I know. I am not able to and don't want to convince anyone to change their mind about Chinese government, but only want to show that the data is not "statistically unlikely".

[Bombadil]

One reason to distrust numbers is the rate of death is almost exactly 2.1% every day, which is statistically unlikely.

I hope you know that many people are skeptical of anything coming from official Chinese govt channels.

Yes, I know. I am not able to and don't want to convince anyone to change their mind about Chinese government, but only want to show that the data is not "statistically unlikely".

It is statistically unlikely, you'd expect a 1.7 and a 2.5, not staying within .1% of the average every day.

[Zixu]

It is statistically unlikely, you'd expect a 1.7 and a 2.5, not staying within .1% of the average every day.

Are you kidding? The death rate is one TOTAL number divided by another TOTAL number. Since those total number is big, do you know what such a huge change of death rate means?

A number	rate(b/a)	B(i)	B(i)-B(i-1)
24324	1.7%	413.508	--
28018	2.3%	644.414	230.906
31161	1.9%	592.059	-52.355
34546	2.5%	863.65	271.591
37198	1.8%	669.564	-194.086

The A number is the real number of confirmed cases in recent 5 days. Under your assumption, during the 3rd day and the 5th day, many dead people come to alive???

[The JELLEAIN Republic]

I hold the belief that the corona virus is much worse that it has been made out to be.
In regards both to vitality and lethality.

[Australian rePublic]

Why so many diseases come from China?

[Zixu]

It is statistically unlikely, you'd expect a 1.7 and a 2.5, not staying within .1% of the average every day.

Are you kidding? The death rate is one TOTAL number divided by another TOTAL number. Since those total number is big, do you know what such a huge change of death rate means?

A number	rate(b/a)	B(i)	B(i)-B(i-1)
24324	1.7%	413.508	--
28018	2.3%	644.414	230.906
31161	1.9%	592.059	-52.355
34546	2.5%	863.65	271.591
37198	1.8%	669.564	-194.086

The A number is the real number of confirmed cases in recent 5 days. Under your assumption, during the 3rd day and the 5th day, many dead people come to alive???

It's the same form as the table above that using the real number.

confirmed number	death rate	deaths number [D(i)]	increase number of death [D(i)-D(i-1)]
24324	2.014%	490	--
28018	2.009%	563	73
31161	2.041%	636	73
34546	2.090%	722	86
37198	2.180%	811	89

Compare to your assumption, the reported number is more reasonable because the new deaths number is stable. The medical system is operating at full capacity for about one month and has reach to a stable state so the new number of dead people every day is stable.
The 0.1 you mentioned is the absolute difference value of the death rate. It is a tiny number but the base number is also tiny (2.0~2.2). The change rate of the death rate is about 5% ( for example [(2.2%-2.1%)/2.1%]*100% ), it's normal.

[Kowani]

Why so many diseases come from China?

The large number of people.

[Telconi]

Why so many diseases come from China?

Dense population concentrations.

[Lost Memories]

The global virus map on Johns Hopkins has started to graph the recovered numbers (when will they add also the dead? plot all the info if you want to add more)

The graph of the recovered could be very useful to look at, assuming the speed of recovery over weeks to be more or less the same (given there is no cure, and recovering mostly boils down to people naturally fighting off the virus)
Since the recovered numbers have to be dependent on the infected numbers, which means that we may be able to have a glimpse of the real infection curve which is being covered up (wilfully or not) by china

And if the correlation holds, in maybe one or two weeks the recovered will have to slow down to reflect the slow down of the reported infected we are having since weeks, if the correlation breaks then we will be once more sure they are bullshitting the infected numbers. (not like we need further reasons to believe that)

Specifically, If the recovered curve will accelerate faster than the infected curve, adjusted as to both curves to start when they had same values, either china has discovered a cure in very little time, or they are inflating the recovered numbers, or they were under reporting the infected numbers before.
But then again, making speculations on unreliable numbers is flawed in its onset.

It's only sure that so long they'll "need" to kidnap people on the streets to bring them to forced quarantine with hundreds of other suspected infected, they won't be keen in reopening the Hubei region to foreigners.

[Nakena]

The global virus map on Johns Hopkins has started to graph the recovered numbers (when will they add also the dead? plot all the info if you want to add more)

This looks like those Day Z graphs.

[Lost Memories]

The global virus map on Johns Hopkins has started to graph the recovered numbers (when will they add also the dead? plot all the info if you want to add more)

This looks like those Day Z graphs.

Well, here on NS events we don't actually have maps, but yeah, if you want to visualize an infection on global scale there aren't many different ways to go with it in an easy and readable way.



An exerpt from the latest WHO conference
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qLUnSQcFEG0
Too busy censuring informations from "not reputable sources", to do their only real job, that is gathering reliable informations on epidemics.

What a reputable source says. (info)(info)

[Pilipinas and Malaya]

One reason to distrust numbers is the rate of death is almost exactly 2.1% every day, which is statistically unlikely.

date	total infected	total deaths	death rate	one decimal
Jan. 30th	9692	213	2.198%	2.2%
Jan. 31st	11791	259	2.197%	2.2%
Feb. 1st	14380	304	2.114%	2.1%
Feb. 2nd	17205	361	2.098%	2.1%
Feb. 3rd	20438	425	2.079%	2.1%
Feb. 4th	24324	490	2.014%	2.0%
Feb. 5th	28018	563	2.009%	2.0%
Feb. 6th	31161	636	2.041%	2.0%
Feb. 7th	34546	722	2.090%	2.1%
Feb. 8th	37198	811	2.180%	2.2%

The ten-day data show the death rate is not "almost exactly" 2.1% but slightly fluctuated around it. That is not odd.

All date come from the daily reports of the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China.
report lists (Chinese language version only)

It is rather peculiar because why is it only fluctuating in that specific range and not with other numbers. It's still maintaining its two percent increments even as the number of infected increase by the thousands.

[Zixu]

The global virus map on Johns Hopkins has started to graph the recovered numbers (when will they add also the dead? plot all the info if you want to add more)

The graph of the recovered could be very useful to look at, assuming the speed of recovery to be more or less the same (given there is no cure, and recovering mostly boils down to people naturally fighting off the virus)
Since the recovered numbers have to be dependent on the infected numbers, which means that we may be able to have a glimpse of the real infection curve which is being covered up (wilfully or not) by china

And if the correlation holds, in maybe one or two weeks the recovered will have to slow down to reflect the slow down of the reported infected we are having since weeks, if the correlation breaks then we will be once more sure they are bullshitting the infected numbers. (not like we need further reasons to believe that)

Specifically, If the recovered curve accelerates faster than the infected curve, adjusted as to both curves to start when they had same values, either china has discovered a cure in very little time, or they are inflating the recovered numbers, or they were under reporting the infected numbers before.
But then again, making speculations on unreliable numbers is flawed in its onset.

It's only sure that so long they'll "need" to kidnap people on the streets to bring them to forced quarantine with hundreds of other suspected infected, they won't be keen in reopening the Hubei region to foreigners.

It's a goog idea. But I guess what we could realized must have been realized by govenment. The every-day report from National Health Commission of PRC includes existing cases number. That number equals to the total confirmed number minus total deaths and cured number. Observing this number is same as watching if the two curves have the same values. But I think this number won't be (or in someone's opinion, the commission won't let this number to be) negitave.
Inspired by your idea, I have started to collect the historical confirmed and cured number to see the correlation. However I guess my work is wast of time because there are countless researchers who are focusing this (or more detailed data) to write papers.

[The World Capitalist Confederation]

I have a feeling China is cutting out several thousand deaths and putting on anyone who's vaguely recovered as "recovered"

[Zixu]

It is rather peculiar because why is it only fluctuating in that specific range and not with other numbers. It's still maintaining its two percent increments even as the number of infected increase by the thousands.

The death rate is not the rate by which the death number increases or decreases. It shows the relation between the total number of confirmed and death and depends on the disease itself as a characteristics of the disease. If either the variation of virus or improvement of cure method or collapse of the medical system or etc don't occur, the 2% may be the final value.
The change rate of total deaths number is

--

21.60%

17.37%

18.75%

17.73%

15.29%

14.90%

12.97%

13.52%

12.33%

The change rate of every-day incerase number of deaths is

--

--

-2.17%

26.67%

12.28%

1.56%

12.31%

0.00%

17.81%

3.49%

They changes obviously.

[Seangoli]

Why so many diseases come from China?

Crowded urban areas, poor personal hygiene, a penchant for eating anything that breaths on the exotic end, and poor health and food standards. It's pretty much a worst case scenario for disease on all fronts.

[Polerien]

Hey everyone! what if for the New Years infected Chinese Citizens come to the USA???

[Seangoli]

I have a feeling China is cutting out several thousand deaths and putting on anyone who's vaguely recovered as "recovered"

My suspicion is that a number of people of people died without being confirmed to have the disease, and ultimately recorded as having died of a different cause. Given that China does this with other diseases, such as the flu, the number of dead may be dramatically under reported. Equally, there are likely a great many people infected but not tested or confirmed with the disease, further muddying the waters.

[Vivolkha]

I have a feeling China is cutting out several thousand deaths and putting on anyone who's vaguely recovered as "recovered"

My suspicion is that a number of people of people died without being confirmed to have the disease, and ultimately recorded as having died of a different cause. Given that China does this with other diseases, such as the flu, the number of dead may be dramatically under reported. Equally, there are likely a great many people infected but not tested or confirmed with the disease, further muddying the waters.

To be honest, even without Chinese government manipulations, determining the number of infected/dead from a disease like this is difficult. Add political interference, and we have many, many reasons to take coronavirus' numbers with a grain of salt.

[Novus America]

Why so many diseases come from China?

The large number of people.

That alone does not explain it. India has nearly as many people in a smaller space.

Other reasons are most likely the PRC’s TCM driven trade in exotic and endangered animals which is not allowed most civilized places. Large number of exotic and endangered animals from all over are kept live in tiny dirty cages in crowders unsanitary markets, then slaughtered with not regard to safety or health.

Hence why these markets are the epicenter of these outbreaks.

Also the government lies about an covers up disease, even threatening and arrest doctors who report it until it gets so far out of control they cannot hide it anymore.

Their “wet markets” and reactionary oppressive government play the big role.

[Vivolkha]

Second case in Spain confirmed, in Mallorca, infection reportedly occured abroad.

There are also reports of Chinese citizens in Barcelona willingly isolating themselves after travelling to China for New Year.

[Thermodolia]

I think many people are spooked because you can be infected and be asymptomatic for seven days.

I also think many people are spooked because this virus is simply new on the disease scene and new viruses and diseases in general tend to freak people out, no matter the severity.

The reason I’m worried is because the reports about the infected and dead aren’t matching up to the Chinese reactions. You don’t effectively declare martial law on 400 million people over something that only has killed less than 1000 people. Unless they aren’t telling the truth

[Greed and Death]

Second case in Spain confirmed, in Mallorca, infection reportedly occured abroad.

There are also reports of Chinese citizens in Barcelona willingly isolating themselves after travelling to China for New Year.

Dear lord their hospital is only set up to deal with drunk brits. The whole island group is likely to be infected.

[Nanatsu no Tsuki]

I also think many people are spooked because this virus is simply new on the disease scene and new viruses and diseases in general tend to freak people out, no matter the severity.

The reason I’m worried is because the reports about the infected and dead aren’t matching up to the Chinese reactions. You don’t effectively declare martial law on 400 million people over something that only has killed less than 1000 people. Unless they aren’t telling the truth

They should be instituting quarantine of everyone who’s been to China in the past two weeks. No exceptions.