The Glorious Chaos of Group 13
It's still anyone's game - but who's favourites?
With just four match days out of 16 remaining, you’d usually expect a qualifying group to have winnowed things down slightly. In fact, in group 16 Saint Eleanor are already home and hosed as winners, in group 15 both automatic spots are tied up. In group 13, things are shaking out a little differently, with only 2 points separating 1st and 5th. With 3rd, 4th and 5th all having a game in hand it really feels like any side could prevail. We could just throw our hands up and leave it at that, but sadly, as Elmyia are involved, people seem to expect us to do punditry on it, so we’ll have a crack.
On Reputation
Going by reputation alone you’d believe that Mertagne and Elmyia were likely dead certs for qualification. Both have qualified for two World Cups in recent times, both recently regional champions, and both coming in with the expectation that qualifying to an expanded World Cup would be a cake walk. Having started with pairs of wins they could’ve been forgiving for booking their tickets already. Elmyia were disabused of this notion first, Oberour Ar Moro inflicting a first defeat and launching a transition into a campaign that has violently oscillated between feast and famine ever since. Mertagne returned to the top of the group after a couple of difficult results, but defeat to Brusseldorf then led to 1 point in 3, leaving them with no room ahead of the chasing pack.
Oberour Ar Moro, StrayaRoos and Aphrilia are all chasing a first qualification in a while, if ever. But all have taken scalps, all having beaten Elmyia at least once, but all gamely dropping points to each other, which is generous of them. All sit in that awkward bracket of solid, mid-ranking sides. There’s no doubting they all have some quality, but to date they’ve lacked that consistency needed to kick on, possibly until now.
On Form
Since the halfway mark
Pos. Group 13 Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts PPG
2 StrayaRoos 5 3 2 0 12 6 6 11 2.2
5 Aphrilia 4 2 1 1 6 8 -2 7 1.75
4 Elmyia 4 2 0 2 13 10 3 6 1.5
3 Oberour Ar Moro 4 2 0 2 11 10 1 6 1.5
1 Mertagne 5 2 1 2 7 7 0 7 1.4
Part of what has made this group so tight is the storming form of the sides that struggled in the first half of qualifying. StrayaRoos are undefeated since the halfway mark, registering some huge wins over Elmyia and Oberour Ar Moro. Yasmeen Karmea has been particularly helpful in this run, with her dangerous crossing coming to bear and upping their goal count. Aphrilia also looked to be putting on a run, marked by the solidity of their defence, until Elmyia swung violently back into form to dispatch them 5-1.
Group favourite Mertagne, meanwhile, come off the back of some horrendous form, including the aforementioned defeat to Brusseldorf. With only 7 goals in the last 5, questions are starting to be asked about their use of a front two and whether it provides the sort of attacking balance needed to pick sides apart. Often unwilling to commit their midfield with the same vigour as some other top nations, too often they’ve found themselves with two centre-forwards either lacking service entirely, or unsupported by those around them. They may wonder if the mercurial Trebuchet might be an option to start as a sole striker.
Elmyia’s own form is currently in the middle of the pack, albeit the two late, narrow defeats to OAM and StrayaRoos tip the scale somewhat.
On Strength of remaining opponents
Nation MD 15 MD 16 MD 17 MD 18 Computer Says They'll Get...
Mertagne Aphrilia (h) Elmyia (a) Hispinas (h) Bye 29.9
StrayaRoos Lisander (a) Brusseldorf (h) Bye OAM (a) 29.25
Oberour Ar Moro Caerbannog (a) Lisander (h) Brusseldorf (a) StrayaRoos(h) 30.55
Elmyia Hispinas (a) Mertagne (h) Caerbannog (a) Lisander (h) 31.05
Aphrilia Mertagne (a) Caerbannog (h) Lisander (a) Brusseldorf (h) 28.65
Well according to the computer at least, Elmyia do in fact have the easiest run in. Sure, it involves hosting Mertagne, but the difficult fixtures are otherwise out of the way (the fact Elmyia lost two of these is neither here nor there). Computer also expects the teams with byes to struggle, as well it might.
Ultimately though, things are so tight, and the remaining fixtures do little to separate out the pack. If Elmyia can get a result against Mertagne they should actually be a shoe in, but that would require the sort of consistency they’ve struggled for. One thing to note is there are a few fixtures left between the sides duking it out at the top. Aphrilia also face Mertagne, and StrayaRoos playing Oberour Ar Moro on the final day could still have a lot left riding on it. Based on how things have gone so far, would any of us have any real confidence that any of these will go to form?
So what do Elmyia need to do really?
With two spots automatically sending sides through, and the play-off spot below, really they only need to get their noses ahead of two of these sides. With the game in hand and three winnable fixtures, that shouldn’t be too much of an ask, the fact that it’s not possible for all of the sides to win all of their remaining games (given they play each other) is also incredibly handy.
So, in terms of what Elmyia need to do, it seems likely the worst case scenario for other teams having points (and presuming they lose to Mertagne) could look like this, with StrayaRoos beating OAM on the final day:
Pos. Group 13 P Pts
1 Mertagne 16 33
2 StrayaRoos 16 33
3 Oberour Ar Moro 16 31
4 Aphrilia 16 31
So… Elmyia then would need 9 points from those other 3 games, which doesn’t leave a lot of wiggle room, but it is possible. Should they hold Mertagne to a draw, then 7 points from the remaining games would be enough. In reality though, 9 points from those 3 should seal the deal given the propensity for every side in this group to balls it up.
Anyway, we might as well nail our colours to the mast here and try and predict what will happen, so sod it:
MD 15 - OAM and StrayaRoos make short work of opponents already cut adrift, Hispinas somehow hold Elmyia to a draw leading to an enormous panic. Mertagne find their form again despite Aphrilia’s defence locking in after it’s horror show against Elmyia, let’s say… 2-1.
MD 16 - StrayaRoos continue their magnificent form and Aphrilia take a welcome break from tough opposition, picking up three handy points against the group’s whipping boys Caerbannog. OAM stumble to a draw against a Lisander side in an awkward mood, whilst Mertagne and Elmyia play out a pulsating 2-2 draw, leading to two sets of supporters spilling out into a mild Beaucester night feeling disappointed.
MD 17 - StrayaRoos put their feet up, OAM squeeze past a resolute Brusseldorf, Elmyia and Mertagne also win and… so do Aphrilia. No change here, but uncomfortable viewing for StrayaRoos fans. Still, that leaves them in second place with all the form, surely it couldn’t go wrong for them from here? Elmyia need other results to go their way as they host Lisander.
MD 18 - Elmyia spank Lisander, so they finish on 31 points and it’s over to teams elsewhere. Aphrilia are held to another draw to Brusseldorf, so their qualification campaign ends, allowing Mertagne to relax just a little bit. StrayaRoos and OAM look to be playing out a draw, 4 teams on 31 points, everything going down to tiebreakers… But then someone, let’s say Peire de Baingneus for the sake of argument, sticks it top bins. OAM through in first, StrayaRoos out, Elmyia through on tiebreakers and Mertagne in the playoffs.
Will it happen? Sod knows, just enjoy it.






































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