Shrillland wrote:Well, folks, 15-hour time differences mean that I should've done this yesterday, but no matter. Here is my take on next week.
The last time Autralians went to get their democracy sausages, what came out of it was openly defying 50 consecutive polls with a LNP Majority and Tony Abbott's unusually sage advice about the troubles of voting for pro-climate measures. Now, however, Labor is ahead in far larger numbers both in first preference and TPP polls, and they also managed to eat the Liberals alive in South Australia back in March. Even One Nation is directing polls toward Labor as their number two in five seats, so I'm quite confident that it will be a Labor victory and that miracles won't happen twice. Whether Labor gets a majority with Albanese's somewhat middling popularity remains to be seen, but I think they'll get 74-77 seats with LNP going down to 70-72.
I recon there will be hung parliament with a slight, slight LNP majority. Most people who answer polls honestly tend to be on the left, so take that into account when relying on them. Either, if ALP win now, I doubt they'll get a second term