American Politics VII: Virginia Reel

[Fahran]

Ok, this is getting almost comical

Abbott's really worried about his election chances, isn't he?

Abbott's probably fine to be honest. He has a large funding advantage over his GOP challengers, among them Allen West, and he managed to see off Lupe Valdez very comfortably in the last gubernatorial election. Given how strong political parties are in Texas and how he's managed to keep suburbanite voters in Houston and Dallas onside, he should win by a pretty comfortable margin, being carried by everything outside of Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, El Paso, and the Valley. A ten or fifteen point victory wouldn't surprise me. He'll likely win by a million in the popular vote again too.

And, before you accuse me of being a wingnut, while such a charge is accurate, I actually dislike Abbott for a wide number of reasons and would very much like to see him lose. He's not likely to lose though, and, as I pointed out below, it has nothing to do with gerrymandering or cheating.

[Fahran]

Thanks to all that voter suppression he signed into law, unlikely

Abbott won the popular vote in the last gubernatorial election by over a million votes.

[Corrian]

Ok, this is getting almost comical

Abbott's really worried about his election chances, isn't he?

what makes you say that? i very much doubt hes going to lose reelection.

His polling isn't great but its also Texas.

[San Lumen]

what makes you say that? i very much doubt hes going to lose reelection.

His polling isn't great but its also Texas.

I don’t see a Democrat winning statewide office for a few more cycles. It will vote blue at the presidential level first like Virginia did in 2008.

[Fahran]

His polling isn't great but its also Texas.

The main thing is that Texans don't really seem to like any of the other options, despite wanting Abbott out. And the state Republican Party and donors seem intent on standing behind him despite a third term being unusual for our state. That said, if I have a choice between voting for Abbott and voting for O'Rourke or West, I'm going to vote for Abbott. He's awful, but he's not a complete schmuck bolstered by his pretty hair or a wingnut known for his awful hot takes. He's just... suburbia's candidate. Ugh.

[Deblar]

His polling isn't great but its also Texas.

The main thing is that Texans don't really seem to like any of the other options, despite wanting Abbott out. And the state Republican Party and donors seem intent on standing behind him despite a third term being unusual for our state. That said, if I have a choice between voting for Abbott and voting for O'Rourke or West, I'm going to vote for Abbott. He's awful, but he's not a complete schmuck bolstered by his pretty hair or a wingnut known for his awful hot takes. He's just... suburbia's candidate. Ugh.

Matthew McConaughey should run. The fact that I am saying this almost unironically really shows how much of a nuclear wasteland the current political landscape is.

[San Lumen]

The main thing is that Texans don't really seem to like any of the other options, despite wanting Abbott out. And the state Republican Party and donors seem intent on standing behind him despite a third term being unusual for our state. That said, if I have a choice between voting for Abbott and voting for O'Rourke or West, I'm going to vote for Abbott. He's awful, but he's not a complete schmuck bolstered by his pretty hair or a wingnut known for his awful hot takes. He's just... suburbia's candidate. Ugh.

Matthew McConaughey should run. The fact that I am saying this almost unironically really shows how much of a nuclear wasteland the current political landscape is.

If he runs as an independent polling is showing he could win.

[Fahran]

Matthew McConaughey should run. The fact that I am saying this almost unironically really shows how much of a nuclear wasteland the current political landscape is.

McConaughey would likely be a bigger disaster than Abbott unfortunately. Really, Texas has next to no good options above the local level given how powerful political parties are in our state and the sorts of people who tend to work their way through the ranks. I actually don't think Texas turning blue would change a whole lot given how our political institutions work. You'd get politicians signalling to different groups, but the day-to-day policies would remain comfortably approved of by the Chambers of Commerce, the suburban home owners and wealthy city-slickers, and petroleum, healthcare, and construction companies. That should be pretty evident just looking at O'Rourke or Valdez.

[Corrian]

I still semi seriously stick by that Matthew McConaughey will win just because politics be weird right now.

[San Lumen]

Matthew McConaughey should run. The fact that I am saying this almost unironically really shows how much of a nuclear wasteland the current political landscape is.

McConaughey would likely be a bigger disaster than Abbott unfortunately. Really, Texas has next to no good options above the local level given how powerful political parties are in our state and the sorts of people who tend to work their way through the ranks. I actually don't think Texas turning blue would change a whole lot given how our political institutions work. You'd get politicians signalling to different groups, but the day-to-day policies would remain comfortably approved of by the Chambers of Commerce, the suburban home owners and wealthy city-slickers, and petroleum, healthcare, and construction companies. That should be pretty evident just looking at O'Rourke or Valdez.

Why would he be a bigger disaster?

[Deblar]

Somebody get me out of this hellhole

[Corrian]

Somebody get me out of this hellhole

I wish I could.

[Fahran]

Why would he be a bigger disaster?

He'd be an inexperienced governor operating in a state that has strong political parties and weak governors and where his lieutenant governor, which is the stronger office in this case, and Congress will likely come from an opposing party. And this is assuming he's actually somewhat good at his job.

[Dreria]

I assume texans exist that are alright, although I have only met one and that was online. People that intentionally become texans, or californicucks that larp as texans on the other hand are near irredeemable.

[Fahran]

I assume texans exist that are alright, although I have only met one and that was online. People that intentionally become texans, or californicucks that larp as texans on the other hand are near irredeemable.

Texas is actually a pretty nice place to live and people, by and large, are friendly on a pretty consistent basis. The fact that are politics suck doesn't really have a whole lot of bearing on that, especially when voting blue probably isn't going to fix most of the actual problems inherent to our politics.

[Corrian]

I assume texans exist that are alright, although I have only met one and that was online. People that intentionally become texans, or californicucks that larp as texans on the other hand are near irredeemable.

Texas is actually a pretty nice place to live and people, by and large, are friendly on a pretty consistent basis. The fact that are politics suck doesn't really have a whole lot of bearing on that, especially when voting blue probably isn't going to fix most of the actual problems inherent to our politics.

I mean Texas keeps doing things unpopular with their actual constituents. Even they don't like what's going on.

Does it mean they'll actually vote to change that? Who knows.

[Dreria]

I assume texans exist that are alright, although I have only met one and that was online. People that intentionally become texans, or californicucks that larp as texans on the other hand are near irredeemable.

Texas is actually a pretty nice place to live and people, by and large, are friendly on a pretty consistent basis. The fact that are politics suck doesn't really have a whole lot of bearing on that, especially when voting blue probably isn't going to fix most of the actual problems inherent to our politics.

nonetheless i stand by my lived experience

[Fahran]

I mean Texas keeps doing things unpopular with their actual constituents. Even they don't like what's going on.

Does it mean they'll actually vote to change that? Who knows.

If we want serious change, we're going to have to do a bit more than vote honestly. Dems would likely not annoy millions of women by trying to ban abortion, but they're still going to retain the strong party politics present in Texas and are still going to be heavily reliant on the suburbs to maintain their power. I'm not really sure how much better COVID policies would actually be under them either.

Imma go have a gloomer moment.

[Fahran]

[nonetheless i stand by my lived experience

Fair enough. And I by mine.

[Dreria]

also no one cares about whataburger and i will never choose to go some place other than in n out

[Fahran]

also no one cares about whataburger and i will never choose to go some place other than in n out

Your opinion is noted. When I become dictator, you will be sent to the pony farm for your sins.

[Kilobugya]

Texas House of Representatives declares the state is exempt from the 14th Amendment and thus can declare same-gender marriages invalid within its borders.

How can a State exempt itself from an Amendment ? What comes next, states exempting from the 1st and banning free speech ? Or (not that I wouldn't actually support that one) "blue" states exempting from the 2nd and banning all firearms ? I wonder where Texas GOP madness will stop... or do they want Civil War 2.0 ?

[Kowani]

[ Kow I believe has a huge post somewhere regarding everything here but the facts are clear: the GOP are a monstrous threat and as long as Democrats continually fight each other and view their counterparts as "political opposition" rather than enemies of Democracy, which the GOP calls Democrats, they will succeed in their goals. After all: The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good people to do nothing.

I want to revamp and explain more things later on, but here-specifically about "polarization" and media framing

And round 2 (Special thanks to Zukerx for his help gathering sources)

Before, I focused on the theoretical side of how Republicans threaten democracy. This time, I wanted to look a bit more at the concrete actions taken in order to form a clear picture. So let's take a look at the most Republican state in the Union. No, not Texas or West Virginia or Florida. We're going to look at Wisconsin. Now, a rational observer might point out that with the exception of the non-partisan offices, a formality in name only, the partisanship of the non-partisan state Supreme Court races is very real) there is only one statewide elected office in Wisconsin held by a republican (Sen. Ron Johnson). So what could I mean by "most Republican State?" Well, let's look at the legislature.

And this all looks very good. The Republicans won statewide majorities in both houses in 2020, so they should get a majority of both houses. But it's not so simple. This is wildly disproportionate-the Assembly WIGOP only won 54% of the vote, but they got 61% of the seats. The same goes in the Senate, where they got 53% of the vote...and 63% of the seats.
But the real important election is 2018 in the State Assembly, where the WIGOP won 45% of the vote...and 64% of the seats. Now this is an insane undemocratic state of affairs. In an election where the party lost 7 percentage points in the popular vote, becoming the minority, they lost...one seat in the legislature and kept the majority.
But it gets worse. The current Governor of Wisconsin is a Democrat, having defeated the previous Republican Governor, Scott Walker. The immediate response of the Republicans in the legislature was to strip the office (and that of the Attorney General, which also went to a Dem) of several of its powers to try and insulate themselves from the inconvenience of democracy. But it wasn't just Wisconsin Republicans who did this. Michigan Republicans did it in response to the victory of Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, North Carolina Republicans did it to Gov. Roy Cooper, Kentucky Republicans did it to Gov. Andy Beshear. (Attempts to do the same to Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly failed in committee).

And speaking of inconveniences of democracy, just this year, Arizona Republicans shifted exclusive control over election lawsuits from Secretary of Katie Hobbs (D) to the Republican attorney general Mark Brnovich- but only through Jan. 2, 2023 — when the winners of the next elections for both offices would be about to take power, as well as when Hobbs' term expires-a very good way to ensure that the authority given to the Attorney General doesn't transfer to a hypothetical Democrat who wins the next race for attorney general.

This is the early, elite version of what happened on January 6th. Less flashy, with less individual consequences if it fails, but attempts to overturn the will of voters all the same. The most explicit of this, however, is not in any swing state (which are good allegories for the national condition), but in Missouri, where Republicans in the state legislature attempted to overrule a passed ballot measure to expand Medicaid. (They later lost in court, but the pattern remains the same: when Republicans lose control over a lever of government, they try to strip it of its power. It's the same reason South Dakota Republicans are currently trying to cripple the state's ballot measure process, and why Mississippi Republicans aren't trying to restore the state's ballot initiative process after the state Supreme Court eliminated it. The Republican Party's elites have decided that democracy is optional.

So let's examine January 6.
The first thing to understand is that it wasn't an isolated event or an uncontrolled riot-local county-level GOP parties were calling for people to "Occupy the Capitol"-and, perhaps most crucially, telling the participants that they were to "overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution". The Stormers knew to target House Whip Jim Clyburn's unmarked private office (bypassing his public marked one entirely), and where to find the weak points at unreinforced windows. And we know from one of the principal organizers of the protest that became the Storming that he had help from 3 Republicans (Mo Brooks, Paul Gosar, and Andy Biggs)And if nothing else, the Oath Keepers were both organized and coordinated, with a second "Quick Reaction Force" armed and waiting nearby for the order to storm the Capitol. That order ultimately never came, and coordination broke down. But we should not be depending on people's incompetence-or willingness to follow a single police officer as bait away from the Senate to safeguard democracy (or a state at all)
Nor can we depend on Mike Pence to deploy the National Guard when the President is intentionally trying to prevent said that deployment.
In their own words, they were there to overthrow the government.

The Republican response to this has been to sweep things under the rug, downplay, and promote it.

The signal here is very clear-the consequences will be light. The stormers will be protected. The national party will do its best to prevent anyone from being held accountable.And they won't try too hard to enforce anything.


But why the acceleration? sure, 63% of Republicans think the election was stolen and 59% say thinking Trump won is an important part of being a Republican.
The conventional theories stop here.
And those theories are extremely important for explaining certain parts of Republican behaviour-Replacing the members of their own party who certified the vote totals, replacing election officials with election deniers, the endless audits (which uniformly find nothing). The voter suppression laws passed in 19 states so far follow this pattern-in addition to cynical Republican politicians believing they can take advantage of the furor to cement electoral advantage.

But there's more to it than that. Consider this poll.

55% of Trump voters viewing it as "freedom", 51% viewing it as "patriotism."
But just as important is this topline from the same poll.

84% of Trump voters believe that democracy is threatened. And thanks to years of apocalyptic rhetoric in their social circles, the devastating effects of racial prejudice on their support for democracy, and the unique animus towards minorities that animates Trump voters, we can say where the threat is and what they see as the problem-a multiracial, pluralistic democracy.

The wheels are all in motion for another coup attempt-this one, without the stopping points of before. The electoral machinery is being taken over,, the Republicans heading for elite positions are opposed to Democratic victories.

A large split-I would argue the fundamental one in the culture war politics-is about who gets to count as American. Whose voices-and votes-are legitimate and whose are not. The sucess of the "voter fraud" lies is directly tied to this idea-it preserves the idea of Real America (who just happens to be white, conservative, and Christian.)
And all of those things are necessary together-it's not any one thing in isolation.
In a country where 30% of the population-and slightly more than half of Republican voters-endorse the idea that "'God intended America to be a new promised land where European Christians could create a society that could be an example to the rest of the world" ever democratically deal with white status threat?

I don't know.
But we're finding out. And I don't like our chances.

[Great Algerstonia]

Texas House of Representatives declares the state is exempt from the 14th Amendment and thus can declare same-gender marriages invalid within its borders.

Don't mess with sovereign citizens

[Dreria]

snip

happy for u or sorry that happened