Canadian Politics: Separatism Flares Up Once More

[Shrillland]

If Notley wins a second term, I will be delighted.

I doubt it, I think the UCP will win, and so far they are leading in five seats that have polls counted.

As do I. Alberta is a Blue Fortress, which is why we were all so shocked in '15. This will be a UCP Majority tonight, I have no doubt.

[Dresderstan]

I doubt it, I think the UCP will win, and so far they are leading in five seats that have polls counted.

As do I. Alberta is a Blue Fortress, which is why we were all so shocked in '15. This will be a UCP Majority tonight, I have no doubt.

Well tbh, blame the split among the right with the Wildrose and PCs giving the NDP an historic win. And tonight we're gonna see more history in the making as Alberta will have it's first one term government from the NDP.

[Shrillland]

It didn't even take an hour, a UCP Majority Government's been called by CBC.

[Dresderstan]

It didn't even take an hour, a UCP Majority Government's been called by CBC.

Called by Global News as well, so far they have 44 seats leading and electing.

[Shrillland]

Nothing about who won tonight in the debate though, though that will be even more historic in many ways.

[Luziyca]

If Notley wins a second term, I will be delighted.

I doubt it, I think the UCP will win, and so far they are leading in five seats that have polls counted.

Indeed.

It didn't even take an hour, a UCP Majority Government's been called by CBC.

So, it seems like Alberta is back to the old ways. Now let's see if the NDP ever returns to government in Alberta...

[Dresderstan]

Yeah essentially a UCP majority is going to happen, and I think it'll have 60 ish seats and the NDP will be in the mid 20s.

[Kubra]

It didn't even take an hour, a UCP Majority Government's been called by CBC.

I mean we all knew it was coming.

[Major-Tom]

As expected, Edmonton remains an NDP stronghold surrounded by an endless sea of blue. Disappointing, but not surprising, that the UCP swept the province (though their margins were larger than I anticipated).

[Dresderstan]

Well despite the closeness of three ridings and the counting of hundreds of thousands of advanced polling votes, these are the results pretty much.

UCP: 63 (+38)
NDP: 24 (-28)
AP: 0 (-3)
Lib: 0 (-1)

UCP: 55.12% (Pre-Creation) [919,122]
NDP: 32.22% (-8.38%) [536,220]
AP: 9.18% (+6.88%) [152,712]
Lib: 0.97% (-3.21%) [16,207]

Also the total vote compared to last election is up over 150K votes.

[Nouveau Yathrib]

At the provincial level I would probably support the BC Greens.

Not sure about the federal level but I'd probably lean NDP even though they seem quite a bit more left wing than I am ideologically. I'm turned off by Trudeau's scandals, the Tories' general opposition to climate action, and the futility of voting Green just to spite the establishment. People's Party is a no-go in the Trump era.

[Shrillland]

At the provincial level I would probably support the BC Greens.

Not sure about the federal level but I'd probably lean NDP even though they seem quite a bit more left wing than I am ideologically. I'm turned off by Trudeau's scandals, the Tories' general opposition to climate action, and the futility of voting Green just to spite the establishment. People's Party is a no-go in the Trump era.

Well, you guys do have a byelection coming up in Nanaimo-Ladysmith on the 6th. Greens did pretty well last time around, and with the Liberals sinking like they are, Manly has a nonzero chance of winning.

[Dresderstan]

In PEI news, the latest poll has the Greens in the lead by about 4 points... but they're ahead of the PCs who are in second place now in the latest poll and the Liberals down in third.

Greens: 35.4%
PC's: 30.5%
Lib: 29.2%
NDP: 4.9%

[Novus America]

In PEI news, the latest poll has the Greens in the lead by about 4 points... but they're ahead of the PCs who are in second place now in the latest poll and the Liberals down in third.

Greens: 35.4%
PC's: 30.5%
Lib: 29.2%
NDP: 4.9%

If these trends keep up the Liberals are going to get trounced badly when the federal elections come around.

[Dresderstan]

In PEI news, the latest poll has the Greens in the lead by about 4 points... but they're ahead of the PCs who are in second place now in the latest poll and the Liberals down in third.

Greens: 35.4%
PC's: 30.5%
Lib: 29.2%
NDP: 4.9%

If these trends keep up the Liberals are going to get trounced badly when the federal elections come around.

Yeah... about that, The Liberals have been cutting slightly into the Tories lead in the Federal polls, and as Shrillland said before the results of the provincial elections does not determine the outcome of the federal elections

[Shrillland]

Currently showing a Tory plurality of 12...but the 2015 polls were so incredibly off that I'm a little sceptical about how conservative their Conservative estimates are.

[Dresderstan]

Currently showing a Tory plurality of 12...but the 2015 polls were so incredibly off that I'm a little sceptical about how conservative their Conservative estimates are.

Maybe they think a shy Tory vote will give the Conservatives a leg up. I think we might see more of a minority government, be it a Liberal or Conservative one, because even with the libel lawsuit keeping SNC alive it does look like the lead the Tories had is being eaten away, bit by bit.

[Ubekibekibekibekistanstan]

In PEI news, the latest poll has the Greens in the lead by about 4 points... but they're ahead of the PCs who are in second place now in the latest poll and the Liberals down in third.

Greens: 35.4%
PC's: 30.5%
Lib: 29.2%
NDP: 4.9%

The prospect of having Greens in power somewhere in North America is intriguing, even if they don't get a majority of seats. Polling trends suggest that they've taken a lot of support from liberals. What's behind this, exactly?

[Shrillland]

In PEI news, the latest poll has the Greens in the lead by about 4 points... but they're ahead of the PCs who are in second place now in the latest poll and the Liberals down in third.

Greens: 35.4%
PC's: 30.5%
Lib: 29.2%
NDP: 4.9%

The prospect of having Greens in power somewhere in North America is intriguing, even if they don't get a majority of seats. Polling trends suggest that they've taken a lot of support from liberals. What's behind this, exactly?

Well, there are actually four reasons for this. The first is that the Liberals have been in charge for 12 years under two premiers, and the pendulum is swinging. The second is that the PCs aren't doing as well as they should(despite their strong showing) because they're only just re-consolidating themselves after particularly nasty infighting over the last few years, including three leadership contests since the last election. Third, PEI isn't quite far enough to the left for the NDP to have a serious foothold. Finally, and the biggest reason of all, Green leader Peter Bevan-Baker is wildly popular on a personal level with 53% popularity against MacLauchlan's 21%. A lot of people are selecting Green MLAs simply because they like Bevan-Baker and want him to be premier.

And let's not forget, this could be the last majority government PEI gets if the other vote on Tuesday passes. They'll be voting to change their electoral system to PR from FPTP. Polls, however, have it within the margin of error, so it'll be close.

[Nouveau Yathrib]

At the provincial level I would probably support the BC Greens.

Not sure about the federal level but I'd probably lean NDP even though they seem quite a bit more left wing than I am ideologically. I'm turned off by Trudeau's scandals, the Tories' general opposition to climate action, and the futility of voting Green just to spite the establishment. People's Party is a no-go in the Trump era.

Well, you guys do have a byelection coming up in Nanaimo-Ladysmith on the 6th. Greens did pretty well last time around, and with the Liberals sinking like they are, Manly has a nonzero chance of winning.

Lol, I'm not actually Canadian but the area of the US I'm from is geographically and culturally close to BC.

My understanding is that there is no real Conservative party in BC provincial party politics, so the BC Liberals are the functional center-right party, and do around as well as the federal Tories among right-leaning voter blocs like ethnic Chinese and Protestants.
https://vancouversun.com/opinion/column ... te-liberal
https://vancouversun.com/news/local-new ... poll-finds

[Dresderstan]

Well, you guys do have a byelection coming up in Nanaimo-Ladysmith on the 6th. Greens did pretty well last time around, and with the Liberals sinking like they are, Manly has a nonzero chance of winning.

Lol, I'm not actually Canadian but the area of the US I'm from is geographically and culturally close to BC.

My understanding is that there is no real Conservative party in BC provincial party politics, so the BC Liberals are the functional center-right party, and do around as well as the federal Tories among right-leaning voter blocs like ethnic Chinese and Protestants.
https://vancouversun.com/opinion/column ... te-liberal
https://vancouversun.com/news/local-new ... poll-finds

While the Tories aren't successful provincially as they are federally in B.C. (The last time the party had seats in the legislature was 1975 with one seat) there is a Conservative party and if the polls are anything to go by, they are having a bit of an attempted revival going on.

The last poll from a month ago has them in a close fourth place with the Greens

[Dresderstan]

Newfoundland & Labrador's provincial election has been called for May 16th

And I think it's gonna be a reduced Liberal government, since early polls have the Tories closing the gap recently, but I wouldn't be too surprised if they managed to pull something out, even if N&L is a pretty safe Liberal stronghold.

[Shrillland]

Welp, after a scare at a polling place, PEI's polls close in less than half an hour and we'll find out who takes 26 of the 27 seats in the assembly(one riding didn't vote today after their Green candidate died earlier this month). Will MacLauchlan get a fourth term? Will the Tories somehow cone out on top? Will FPTP be replaced by MMP? Will history be made with the Americas' first Green government presiding over Green Gables?....I'll let myself out.

And plus, for MMP to become a reality, it'll require, like all provincial constitutional amendments, an absolute majority of voters and a majority of 60% of ridings or 17 ridings.

[The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp]

If these trends keep up the Liberals are going to get trounced badly when the federal elections come around.

Yeah... about that, The Liberals have been cutting slightly into the Tories lead in the Federal polls, and as Shrillland said before the results of the provincial elections does not determine the outcome of the federal elections

Cool.

[Shrillland]

CBC is now calling a minority government....and no idea which party it'll be. PCs are leading with 11 leads, Greens are leading in 9, Libs in 6, and one will have a by-election in May after the Green candidate died in a canoeing accident this last week. A few seats can still change hands around Charlottetown, but there will be no majority unless a coalition forms.