Idzequitch wrote:Major-Tom wrote:While we're all making predictions, here are mine. Nate Silver himself came by and said they looked great.
House: 226D, 209R, Dems regain control narrowly, only sustain a few losses (MN's Duluth district comes to mind)
Senate: 51-49 R, no real change as Dems pick up Nevada and squeak in a super, super narrow win in AZ (48.5-48.0) or something like that. Dems lose ND and MO at the same time (by 3-4 points in ND and 1-2 points in MO. Dems manage to hold on by 1-2 points in FL, MT & IN, and by bigger 3-6 point margins in WV, OH.
If I had to guesstimate the margins of victory (going by intervals of .5%) in the swing Senate seats, I would say as follows;
AZ: 48.5% (D) & 48.0% (R) (possibly lower margin of victory here).
NV: 49.0% (D) & 47.5% (R).
MT: 48.5% (D) & 47.5% (R), I expect Tester's winning margin to be smaller than some expect.
FL: 49.5% (D) & 48.0% (R).
TX: 50.0% (R) & 47.0% (D).
IN: 49.0% (D) & 47.0% (R).
TN: 50.5% (R) & 47.5% (D).
MO: 49.0% (R) & 48.0% (D).
ND: 51.5% (R) & 47.5% (D).
This is all, of course, speculation.
There's just one too few competitive races for the Dems to nab the majority in the Senate. ND, TN, TX appear to be going for the Republicans, so even if the Dems manage to sweep AZ, NV, MT, FL, IN, WV, OH, and MO, they're still probably looking at a 50/50 split.
I think 50/50 is going to happen. And think that Manchin or Collins will flip parties or go independent.