Great Nepal wrote: I think the €20-€80bn estimate also includes other commitments (like pension for British MEPs and risk of EU loans agreed by UK going bad etc)
I'm comfortable with not paying Nigel Farage his MEP pension.
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by Frank Zipper » Thu May 25, 2017 7:32 am
Great Nepal wrote: I think the €20-€80bn estimate also includes other commitments (like pension for British MEPs and risk of EU loans agreed by UK going bad etc)
by The Wolfiad » Thu May 25, 2017 7:48 am
Souseiseki wrote:The Wolfiad wrote:Local campaigning will resume today by Labour and I think the Tories. Both parties will reinitiate their campaigns on Friday.
http://www.progressonline.org.uk/2017/0 ... our-surge/
Little point I want to touch upon about the polls. Last year between the two parties Labour gained 44% of the total votes cast for either Conservative or Tory. Based upon the last YouGov poll, I've worked out in spite of the polling increase Labour, the overall polling increase for the Tories compared to 2015 means that Labour still remains at 44%. In essence what has happened that the increasing amount of votes for the two parties should have benefited the Tories more considering their previous leads, however May's hiccups has meant some of it has drifted to Labour... yet it only puts us at the strength of the Miliband-era Labour Party. If we had a better Leader we perhaps could have an increased proportion of votes among the two parties or ideally a majority. This article above by Conor Pope also gives another analysis into the polling.
EDIT: I've also checked with the other polling companies. The last ORB and Survation (online) poll has us at 42.5%, the Survation phone poll has us at 44%, the last ICM poll at 41%. So technically we are doing worse than Ed Miliband when it all averages out. We live in a two-party system, so the most important metric for one of the two parties is the percentage of votes held relative to the other party. So for instance, even though some polls have Labour polling at the same amount as Blair in 2005, Blair still had a majority of votes cast between the two parties (52% of votes cast for Labour, 48% for the Tories).
milliband era is magic compared to the doom and gloom we heard about corbyn is going to tank the labour party
by Great Nepal » Thu May 25, 2017 7:58 am
by Olerand » Thu May 25, 2017 10:38 am
Dooom35796821595 wrote:Olerand wrote:Money pledged by the United Kingdom to EU programs and initiatives that it was a part of. Why does the United Kingdom insist on shirking its responsibilities? Where is that famous British resolve, that commitment to your obligations?
Money pledged to the EU, as a member of the EU, with the intention of remaining a member. There are no responsibilities, unless the EU can point to the binding legislation that stipulates a member must continue paying for such programs once outside of the EU.
Senegalboy wrote:Olerand wrote:Money pledged by the United Kingdom to EU programs and initiatives that it was a part of. Why does the United Kingdom insist on shirking its responsibilities? Where is that famous British resolve, that commitment to your obligations?
Well these are our responsibilities as a member of the eu
And the British people have strongly urged us to withdraw our membership of the European union
What is the french stance on Brexit and what are their negotiation points
Dooom35796821595 wrote:Frank Zipper wrote:The UK can try to negotiate the amount owed for commitments already agreed to, but it will slow down negotiations, meaning the possibility of no deal at all becomes much more likely. No deal at all will cost us far more in the long run.
Since the tories have not guaranteed the rights of the 3.5 or so million EU nationals living in the UK I'm sure that will be used as leverage to banish this nonsense "divorce bill".
Great Nepal wrote:Dooom35796821595 wrote:
They stand to lose one of the largest net contributors to their budget, it's not a little. And I still haven't seen any legal justification for this "divorce bill", have you?
That will happen regardless; and we're talking about about 5bn per year - or 5% of EU's current income. Germany alone could cover that by increasing its commitment by 3.5% or current group of net contributors could make it up by adding 500m per country.
Largely breaks down to commitments made to the budget (reasonable - UK agreed to make payments until 2020 and got things like rebate based on that commitment), ongoing costs associated with British membership (mostly reasonable - EU incurred ongoing costs such as pensions based on reasonable expectation of ongoing contributions from UK), risks signed up to by Britain when it was a member (again reasonable - UK agreed to take on risks associated with defaults so), and cost of withdrawal process (probably not reasonable). UK could probably discuss alternatives for all these cases: ongoing payment till 2020, taking on commitments from EU, separate loan agreement etc but none of these are unreasonable in principle. UK could of course tell EU to suck it because enforcing things against a sovereign state is hard, but then EU will quite likely return the favor by introducing legislation targeted at UK based businesses.
Free Rhenish States wrote:You're French, without faith, probably godless, liberal without any traditional values or respect for any faith whatsoever
by Frank Zipper » Thu May 25, 2017 10:40 am
by Calladan » Thu May 25, 2017 11:50 am
Protect religious freedoms in accordance with Article 18 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, provided those beliefs exist firmly within the framework of British law. We will not condone any faith position that is itself intolerant of the human rights of others
by The Wolfiad » Thu May 25, 2017 2:33 pm
by Olerand » Thu May 25, 2017 2:38 pm
The Wolfiad wrote:Holy shitballs, latest YouGov poll:
CON: 43% (-1)
LAB: 38% (+3)
LDEM: 10% (+1)
UKIP: 4% (+1)
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi- ... ndary=2015
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingo ... D=10&GRN=2
Free Rhenish States wrote:You're French, without faith, probably godless, liberal without any traditional values or respect for any faith whatsoever
by Souseiseki » Thu May 25, 2017 2:38 pm
The Wolfiad wrote:Holy shitballs, latest YouGov poll:
CON: 43% (-1)
LAB: 38% (+3)
LDEM: 10% (+1)
UKIP: 4% (+1)
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi- ... ndary=2015
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingo ... D=10&GRN=2
by The Wolfiad » Thu May 25, 2017 2:40 pm
by Vassenor » Thu May 25, 2017 2:40 pm
Souseiseki wrote:The Wolfiad wrote:Holy shitballs, latest YouGov poll:
CON: 43% (-1)
LAB: 38% (+3)
LDEM: 10% (+1)
UKIP: 4% (+1)
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi- ... ndary=2015
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingo ... D=10&GRN=2
corbyn the supposedly unelectable launches his final attack
tories sweat bullets as right-wing labour look at each other, not sure whether to support him or flank him
may continues to hide and do nothing and hope she wins on intertia
by Frank Zipper » Thu May 25, 2017 2:40 pm
by The Wolfiad » Thu May 25, 2017 2:41 pm
Olerand wrote:The Wolfiad wrote:Holy shitballs, latest YouGov poll:
CON: 43% (-1)
LAB: 38% (+3)
LDEM: 10% (+1)
UKIP: 4% (+1)
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi- ... ndary=2015
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingo ... D=10&GRN=2
... Is Labour actually gaining ground? Amazing!
by The Wolfiad » Thu May 25, 2017 2:42 pm
Frank Zipper wrote:A hung parliament would be glorious.
by Olerand » Thu May 25, 2017 2:49 pm
Free Rhenish States wrote:You're French, without faith, probably godless, liberal without any traditional values or respect for any faith whatsoever
by Shrillland » Thu May 25, 2017 2:54 pm
Olerand wrote:The Wolfiad wrote:Well yeah, but once again Corbyn has to go give me a heartache. I swear to God this is some crazy abusive relationship, the polling gives me hope and then he goes and makes another foreign policy gaffe.
I love that. I hope Corbyn makes that speech. What an ironic twist of history. France elects a liberal centrist, chouchou of the markets, and Britain elects an Islamo-gauchiste old leftist. Beautiful. Life is grand.
Supposing these polls hold and Corbyn keeps, despite all odds, gaining ground of course.
by Vassenor » Thu May 25, 2017 2:56 pm
Shrillland wrote:Olerand wrote:I love that. I hope Corbyn makes that speech. What an ironic twist of history. France elects a liberal centrist, chouchou of the markets, and Britain elects an Islamo-gauchiste old leftist. Beautiful. Life is grand.
Supposing these polls hold and Corbyn keeps, despite all odds, gaining ground of course.
I'm actually surprised that May hasn't pulled the classic campaign response after a terrorist attack, i.e. wrap the Union Jack round herself and play patriotism like a used Hammond Organ. It works just about everywhere else.
by Souseiseki » Thu May 25, 2017 2:56 pm
The Wolfiad wrote:FFSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS
https://apple.news/A30q8-JPHREuSAG-hTdp1qA
ONE JOB! ONE FUCKING JOB! AND NOW HE'S ALREADY GONE AND BLOWN IT. WELL FUCKING DONE.
by Vassenor » Thu May 25, 2017 3:19 pm
Mostrov wrote:Remember when my predictions about a victory seemed a little daft?
If he does win, we would likely see a coup—no time in the last two centuries have the military ever made political threats as they have. In this current mood, that could quite quickly turn into a civil-war. And consider you have popular ground swell to 'do something' about all the Muslims!
by Salandriagado » Thu May 25, 2017 3:22 pm
Vassenor wrote:Mostrov wrote:Remember when my predictions about a victory seemed a little daft?
If he does win, we would likely see a coup—no time in the last two centuries have the military ever made political threats as they have. In this current mood, that could quite quickly turn into a civil-war. And consider you have popular ground swell to 'do something' about all the Muslims!
Why is everyone so obsessed with the idea of a Military Coup?
And what happens if Liz pulls a Juan Carlos and tells the military to stop being stupid?
by Vassenor » Thu May 25, 2017 3:27 pm
by Souseiseki » Thu May 25, 2017 3:30 pm
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