[Change #7] Estimated Update Times Displayed

[Tlik]

The update times displayed should be updated each time legislation is passed within the region. So the last known update would be when the legislation was passed on the previous Minor or Major update.

That's how NS++ works. It's inaccurate, and it doesn't prevent triggering. The aim of this is to prevent triggering. Ballo's suggestion does that.

[Festavo]

I think that the defenders will be howling about this, but also think about how good it will be for raiders and defenders alike...
If you wanna defend, then you got the update time. If you wanna raid, you got the update time

[All Good People]

Yes, it should give everyone the same opportunity, including new players without experience. Making gameplay more accessible to the general player population should be a good thing.

[Nephmir]

The "window of uncertainty" should not be incredibly large; the update times should update automatically thoroughout the process of the update, to reduce the window as the target approaches. Perhaps a countdown timer displayed when there is 1:00 remaining?

[Darwinish Brentsylvania]

I think that the defenders will be howling about this, but also think about how good it will be for raiders and defenders alike...
If you wanna defend, then you got the update time. If you wanna raid, you got the update time

Yes, update times are especially needed in speed liberations and multiple tag raids.

[Cerb]

I have one hazy idea which could maybe open the window and take some away from timing.

It might be tricky programmatically but I was thinking perhaps of a window of time which a region updates. So perhaps the region updates a random number of seconds after the posted update time. So if raider / liberators move in at the update time it may be 10 to 30 seconds later. that then increases an invaders chance of swinging their banhammer and gives defenders a chance to defeat tag raiders.

Of course the raiders could then try and risk moving in slightly late to decrease the window, but likewise they might miss the boat.

I don't know exactly how the script runs to update the regions, my assumption is that it closes out the regions after it updates all of the nations that reside within the region. Anyway, tossing the idea out there to be abused.

[Unibot III]

I have one hazy idea which could maybe open the window and take some away from timing.

It might be tricky programmatically but I was thinking perhaps of a window of time which a region updates. So perhaps the region updates a random number of seconds after the posted update time. So if raider / liberators move in at the update time it may be 10 to 30 seconds later. that then increases an invaders chance of swinging their banhammer and gives defenders a chance to defeat tag raiders.

Of course the raiders could then try and risk moving in slightly late to decrease the window, but likewise they might miss the boat.

I don't know exactly how the script runs to update the regions, my assumption is that it closes out the regions after it updates all of the nations that reside within the region. Anyway, tossing the idea out there to be abused.

If the time is always MORE than the displayed update time than this actually a good proposal.

Before you say, "but that involves randomization", remember that the skill would be in the strategy. You would have to ask how much time do you give yourself in preparation for a random event? There would be a mathematical strategy behind that situation, it would just be more complex. A strategy which would change depending on a number of variables - first and foremost, whether you have adversaries online.

Like, say, The Monty Hall problem, a strategy could quickly give the edge to more clever defenders and invaders despite seemingly randomized events.

I also prefer this proposal than the one that was approved during the R/D Conference (where the Daily Dumps no longer contained the proper update order). I think this would do more good - because it would keep more skill involved.

[Mallorea and Riva]

viewtopic.php?f=32&t=259002
Is that essentially what both of you are referring to?

[Unibot III]

http://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?f=32&t=259002
Is that essentially what both of you are referring to?

I dislike that system a lot. I think it's possibly the worst thing that could come out of the R/D Conference.

- It alienates the skill of players.

- Completely gets rid of the tradition of triggermen which has developed.

I think the Daily Dumps should still operate as always, but Cerb's idea of having a "jumpy" Update accomplishes what the proposal intended without fucking over Military Gameplay stubbornly. The conference's plan puts a field of fog between you and the hole and let's you take potshots at it blindly with your five iron. Cerb's plan would put sand dunes and ponds in your way to the hole. The latter appreciates skill, the former is a wild crap-shoot.

[Ballotonia]

I also prefer this proposal than the one that was approved during the R/D Conference (where the Daily Dumps no longer contained the proper update order). I think this would do more good - because it would keep more skill involved.

Odd argument, considering it's the exact same proposal as made in this thread. Cerb's suggestion would also cause the order of region updates to not be in the order listed in the Daily Data Dump generated the day before.

Ballotonia

[Evil Wolf]

That's how NS++ works. It's inaccurate, and it doesn't prevent triggering. The aim of this is to prevent triggering. Ballo's suggestion does that.

The intention of this change is to:

• Reduce the barriers to involvement in raiding/defending by making information on update times publicly available to all.
• Have the estimated update time displayed on regions be the most accurate information a player can obtain on a region's possible update time, negating the need for other tools.
• Prevent split-second timing from being an absolute necessity for success.

Ehhhh, not exactly the intention.

[Tlik]

That's how NS++ works. It's inaccurate, and it doesn't prevent triggering. The aim of this is to prevent triggering. Ballo's suggestion does that.

The intention of this change is to:

• Reduce the barriers to involvement in raiding/defending by making information on update times publicly available to all.
• Have the estimated update time displayed on regions be the most accurate information a player can obtain on a region's possible update time, negating the need for other tools.
• Prevent split-second timing from being an absolute necessity for success.

Ehhhh, not exactly the intention.

"prevent the need for triggering" would probably be more accurate.

Although triggering would largely be impossible anyway, as a region's update time would no longer depend on the previous region's update time.

[Sichuan Pepper]

Game changes such as these need to be made to NS Vanilla. No need to force players to use an addon that currently is not even run by NS admin.

[NOrTh pAcIfiC spY]

Will we get the Estimated Update Times to balance out the fact that the vast majority of tools will self destruct or become significantly less accurate when issues update almost instantly? Most software is based around when an issue updates, and although influence/delegate change times help, they won't give the full picture.

[Ballotonia]

After part 1 implementation stuff happened and this got put on the back burner.

It's now back on the front burner, FYI.

Reminder: this change makes tools which improve trigger times conceptually impossible.

Ballotonia

[Aurum Rider]

After part 1 implementation stuff happened and this got put on the back burner.

It's now back on the front burner, FYI.

Reminder: this change makes tools which improve trigger times conceptually impossible.

Ballotonia

What do you mean by this? Are the estimates they provide going to be as accurate as a tool could ever get?

[Ballotonia]

What do you mean by this? Are the estimates they provide going to be as accurate as a tool could ever get?

It means that there will be no strict relation between one region updating and what is currently the next one. The most accurate prediction possible of the update will be the one displayed.

Ballotonia

[Evil Wolf]

It means that there will be no strict relation between one region updating and what is currently the next one. The most accurate prediction possible of the update will be the one displayed.

Speaking of which, will this prediction time truly be "the most accurate prediction possible" that the game can provided or will it be nurfed and, if so, by how much?

[Eluvatar]

It means that there will be no strict relation between one region updating and what is currently the next one. The most accurate prediction possible of the update will be the one displayed.

Speaking of which, will this prediction time truly be "the most accurate prediction possible" that the game can provided or will it be nurfed and, if so, by how much?

Ballotonia is saying that the game will provide a prediction which is the most accurate prediction possible. It will not be less accurate or precise than it is possible to otherwise predict.

That said, it may be less precise than current predictions can accurately get.

[Evil Wolf]

Ballotonia is saying that the game will provide a prediction which is the most accurate prediction possible. It will not be less accurate or precise than it is possible to otherwise predict.

That said, it may be less precise than current predictions can accurately get.

Well my concern here is how accurate, or rather how inaccurate, these times might be. Obviously this is a two way street. As much as it helps raiders, new and old alike, it also greatly helps Defenders. Anyone will be able to very easily compile a list of founderless regions, list them by update time, and watch them in order. Even the more Luddite defender regions who shun change, like TITO, would be able to do that.

So if the typical variation is in the seconds range, ok, that's a competitive game right there, plenty of opportunity for success or failure on both sides. However, if the normal variation is a couple of minutes to dozens of minutes then we're going to go right back to the problem of raiders and defenders using scripts to try and divine the update times of target regions, which is what this change was trying to eliminate.

I'm just trying to determine if this change will actually bring the gameplay transformation it's intended to bring, or if this is a lost cause from the start.

[Ballotonia]

... then we're going to go right back to the problem of raiders and defenders using scripts to try and divine the update times of target regions, which is what this change was trying to eliminate.

Such divination will not be possible.

Ballotonia

[Evil Wolf]

Such divination will not be possible.

I can only speculate with the limited information available to me, but I would imagine in order for this to be true the update time would have to be randomized at every single update. Is this the case?

And to reiterate, the statement that "the game will provide a prediction which is the most accurate prediction possible" doesn't actually state how accurate that prediction is. If the update times are randomized at every update, one could reasonable assert that the updates for any give region will occur between 12 AM - 1 PM and 12 PM - 1 AM EST and that broad and unhelpful range can technically be claimed to be "the most accurate prediction possible".

I would think the Admin and Tech team has a pretty good idea about how accurate their update time predictor is compared to the actual update times. I find the obfuscating language being used to describe the accuracy of this code to be disconcerting. I'm just hoping I'm wrong and that this use of language not a sly and foreboding omen of things to come.

I do find the fact that we are not talking about the variance in more specific terms a bit strange, especially considering the fact that this entire topic was set out to determine "length of the 'window of uncertainty' for each region." If that's truly the case, then I don't see the need for vague language.

Maybe for the Admin Team it's...Tradition?

[Ballotonia]

Such divination will not be possible.

I can only speculate with the limited information available to me, but I would imagine in order for this to be true the update time would have to be randomized at every single update. Is this the case?

Nope.

And to reiterate, the statement that "the game will provide a prediction which is the most accurate prediction possible" doesn't actually state how accurate that prediction is. If the update times are randomized at every update, one could reasonable assert that the updates for any give region will occur between 12 AM - 1 PM and 12 PM - 1 AM EST and that broad and unhelpful range can technically be claimed to be "the most accurate prediction possible".

I would think the Admin and Tech team has a pretty good idea about how accurate their update time predictor is compared to the actual update times. I find the obfuscating language being used to describe the accuracy of this code to be disconcerting. I'm just hoping I'm wrong and that this use of language not a sly and foreboding omen of things to come.

From our end it's not a prediction. We provide a time. From that point there's an uncertainty window, so the time provided is at most an estimation on your end. When the time+uncertainty window comes around the server updates the region. Our code does not have to predict when it'll happen, the NS Server code determines when it'll happen.

Since there will no longer be a relation between the time a region updates and the 'prior' region updating, triggering will be fundamentally impossible. The new style update will not update regions sequentially, but it will be (roughly) in an order which can be any order (even the current one), and that rough order can just remain the same.

I do find the fact that we are not talking about the variance in more specific terms a bit strange, especially considering the fact that this entire topic was set out to determine "length of the 'window of uncertainty' for each region." If that's truly the case, then I don't see the need for vague language.

Maybe for the Admin Team it's...Tradition?

No, it's a specific item where we'd like to see input from players, through discussion. It's not intended as a TODO list for us to to tell you what we decided without listening to you. This thread is created for you all to provide input.

Ballotonia

[Aurum Rider]

When the time+uncertainty window comes around the server updates the region. Our code does not have to predict when it'll happen, the NS Server code determines when it'll happen.

I'd like some clarification on this. So what the server will give is a raw time that is accurate within a set amount of time invisible to the user?

No, it's a specific item where we'd like to see input from players, through discussion. It's not intended as a TODO list for us to to tell you what we decided without listening to you. This thread is created for you all to provide input.

My personal take is that if the window of uncertainty is any larger than 5 seconds then R/D is no longer viable for invaders, and if it's any less than 2 seconds it is no longer viable for defenders.

Personally I don't like the idea that skill is no longer a factor. Only being able to rely on an time that's accurate +/- anything that the site gives seems more like we're gambling and putting our faith in god than anything else.

[Sygian]

Without using illegal tools, R/D is a perfectly legal thing to do in NationStates. Even the moderators have said that numerous times. So I'm not sure why they are just trying to make it harder for us to do. There is nothing wrong with R/D, honestly. Like I said, perfectly legal.