Taoiseach Time(An Irish Election Thread)

[Shrillland]

In the latest from the trail:

A young Independent is hoping to be the first Cork Traveller TD and only the second Traveller ever elected to Dail Eireann: https://www.rte.ie/news/campaign-daily/2020/0120/1109673-hogan-seeking-to-be-first-traveller-elected-in-cork/

Fianna Fail accuses Fine Gael of abusing state events after Varadkar used a speech to celebrate Apple's 40th anniversary to claim that FF would tear apart the current contract Ireland has with for the National Broadband Plan: https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/2020/0120/1108518-election-campaign/

Fine Gael is proposing a transition payment for people who wish to retire between ages 65-68 as the state pension's retirement age is set to increase to 67 next year: https://www.rte.ie/news/campaign-daily/2020/0120/1109680-fine-gael-promises-pension-transition-payment/

And Sinn Fein is set to show itself as the only real agent of change in this election: https://www.rte.ie/news/campaign-daily/2020/0120/1109629-day-6-election-campaign/

[A Rossy]

The War of Independence was never about any political position, Socialists, Conservatives, Monarchists or just down right republicans all fought side by side. All the young lads who were in the RA were more just thinking about Irish liberation. Political divisions sadly came from the civil war. Sinn Fein only came far left socialists in around the late 20s, all the non socialists left with Dev in 1925. However 1916 was different, it was a small rising of only a few thousand, pretty much all the martyrs (god rest their souls) were Socialists. Funny how you see Far right talking about them.

FF and FG are definitely different, the people who say there all the same are looking at the base policies and not the history or the party itself. Especially on the issue of the North. But again this all goes back to the civil war, FF were and still are the Anti-Treaty, Republican party, were as FG were obviously the party of the Free State. Look at the history, as soon as FF gained power they declared Ireland a republic and left the commonwealth, they didn't help the Brits during WW2 and declared the nation forever neutral, they also set up a pension scheme for member of the IRA during the War of Independence. Even in the basics like last names, the majority of FG TDs surnames have been Anglo-Norman and the majority of FF TDs surnames have been Gaelic.

[Philjia]

The War of Independence was never about any political position, Socialists, Conservatives, Monarchists or just down right republicans all fought side by side. All the young lads who were in the RA were more just thinking about Irish liberation. Political divisions sadly came from the civil war. Sinn Fein only came far left socialists in around the late 20s, all the non socialists left with Dev in 1925. However 1916 was different, it was a small rising of only a few thousand, pretty much all the martyrs (god rest their souls) were Socialists. Funny how you see Far right talking about them.

FF and FG are definitely different, the people who say there all the same are looking at the base policies and not the history or the party itself. Especially on the issue of the North. But again this all goes back to the civil war, FF were and still are the Anti-Treaty, Republican party, were as FG were obviously the party of the Free State. Look at the history, as soon as FF gained power they declared Ireland a republic and left the commonwealth, they didn't help the Brits during WW2 and declared the nation forever neutral, they also set up a pension scheme for member of the IRA during the War of Independence. Even in the basics like last names, the majority of FG TDs surnames have been Anglo-Norman and the majority of FF TDs surnames have been Gaelic.

"Desperately clinging to increasingly irrelevant distinctions" is a pretty good summary of politics across the emerald isle.

[Eglaecia]

The War of Independence was never about any political position, Socialists, Conservatives, Monarchists or just down right republicans all fought side by side. All the young lads who were in the RA were more just thinking about Irish liberation. Political divisions sadly came from the civil war. Sinn Fein only came far left socialists in around the late 20s, all the non socialists left with Dev in 1925. However 1916 was different, it was a small rising of only a few thousand, pretty much all the martyrs (god rest their souls) were Socialists. Funny how you see Far right talking about them.

They were deluded. Ireland is an artifical nation like Ukraine or Belarus. It has no history prior to 1918, nor an own culture nor a real language. Thoose rebels were terrorist and the british government had every right to crush them.

If you crushed them how come the twenty six counties are "independent"

[Ifreann]

It'd be really great if this time we could do something other than swapping Fine Gael for Fianna Fáil, but it sounds like FF are polling well so I'm not very hopeful.

[Hakinda Herseyi Duymak istiyorum]

Is there a party with the Irish republicanism and social democracy idiology ?

[Shrillland]

Well, there's the Social Democrats, Labour, Sinn Fein, take your pick.

[Outer Sparta]

Well, there's the Social Democrats, Labour, Sinn Fein, take your pick.

Sinn Fein might fit the closest to Irish Republicanism and social democracy I think.

[Hakinda Herseyi Duymak istiyorum]

Well, there's the Social Democrats, Labour, Sinn Fein, take your pick.

Sinn Féin+Labour Party +Social Democrats coalition government. Is something like this possible ?

[Shrillland]

Well, there's the Social Democrats, Labour, Sinn Fein, take your pick.

Sinn Féin+Labour Party +Social Democrats coalition government. Is something like this possible ?

Given the current polls, no.

[Outer Sparta]

Sinn Féin+Labour Party +Social Democrats coalition government. Is something like this possible ?

Given the current polls, no.

The last government was FG with FF being the confidence and supply. The major question is whether FG can retain their lead or if FF eclipses them.

[Shrillland]

Varadkar's now willing to enter a Grand Coalition with FF: https://www.yahoo.com/news/irish-pm-willing-enter-grand-222505354.html

Martin will probably reject it like he did last time.

[Shrillland]

FF is now promising to prepare the Republic for the possibility of a unification referendum even though that's still not likely as of yet: https://www.yahoo.com/news/irelands-fianna-fail-pledges-early-135300861.html

With Britain's secession next week, however, and all of Ireland united under a single customs border, the situation could change.

[Socialist Mercanda]

The REDC poll is due tonight - should be interesting. I wonder how will SF fare, since in the last REDC poll in November it only polled in at 11 points. And interesting to see if the Fine Gael nosedive we saw in the IpsosMRBI and the B&A poll will be replicated as well - and who's to gain.

I would favour a FF-led coalition, and I plan to vote FF 1, 2, and 3 in my constituency (Kerry) in the order of Brassil-Foley-Moriarty. I would've considered throwing a No. 4 at perhaps Labour, but seeing as they aren't running any candidates in Kerry this time round (for this first time in 70 or 80 odd years I believe), I'll be stopping at Norma Numero Dos.

[Socialist Mercanda]

Well, there's the Social Democrats, Labour, Sinn Fein, take your pick.

Sinn Féin+Labour Party +Social Democrats coalition government. Is something like this possible ?

Nope. Unless we see the greatest upset ever in the history of the Republic, as in even greater than the FF collapse of '11, the next gov't will be led by either FF or FG. I would prefer to see a FF-led government, with parties like Labour and the Greens.

[Novus America]

Is there a party with the Irish republicanism and social democracy idiology ?

The Social Democrats.
All the parties has Irish Republicanism as part of their ideology. I am not aware of any that support British Monarchism.

[Bananaistan]

Well, normally I'd support the National Party, as they are closer to my trashy right-wing system, but as they're not putting out many candidates, I'd say that Fianna Fail is the way to go. Their commitment to the Irish language is pretty admirable. I don't want to see the language of my ancestors die off, even if it won't affect me over here in America. I think my only issue would be with their economic interventionism, but nothing's perfect, and getting Leo out is the way to go.

Thankfully the lunatic right wing fringe has no hope of ever taking off in Ireland.

The War of Independence was never about any political position, Socialists, Conservatives, Monarchists or just down right republicans all fought side by side. All the young lads who were in the RA were more just thinking about Irish liberation. Political divisions sadly came from the civil war. Sinn Fein only came far left socialists in around the late 20s, all the non socialists left with Dev in 1925. However 1916 was different, it was a small rising of only a few thousand, pretty much all the martyrs (god rest their souls) were Socialists. Funny how you see Far right talking about them.

FF and FG are definitely different, the people who say there all the same are looking at the base policies and not the history or the party itself. Especially on the issue of the North. But again this all goes back to the civil war, FF were and still are the Anti-Treaty, Republican party, were as FG were obviously the party of the Free State. Look at the history, as soon as FF gained power they declared Ireland a republic and left the commonwealth, they didn't help the Brits during WW2 and declared the nation forever neutral, they also set up a pension scheme for member of the IRA during the War of Independence. Even in the basics like last names, the majority of FG TDs surnames have been Anglo-Norman and the majority of FF TDs surnames have been Gaelic.

1) Ireland was only declared a republic in 1949 under an FG led government.
2) Ireland was neutral in WWII but undoubtedly helped the allied side, EG weather reports were sent to London, they let Allied aircraft use the Donegal corridor and any allied personnel who crashed in the state were quietly dropped off at the border while Germans were detained in the Curragh.
3) The only time SF were far left socialists was in the 1960s in the build up to the provo-official split. The commies set up Official SF who subsequently became Sinn Féin The Workers Party and then the Workers Party. Note that the majority of that party quietly became uber capitalists like so many other "communists" around the world after the fall of the Soviet Union, split and joined the Labour Party and ruined it.

In 1974 the Provisional IRA killed 21 innocent civilians in the English city of Birmingham with time bombs placed in pubs. 182 more were injured. Six innocent Irishmen were wrongfully convicted of carrying out the attack and spent 16 years in prison. The legacy of the troubles is a pile of innocent bodies built by violent sectarianism like that which motivated the IRA. More than half the people killed in the Troubles were civilians who didn't do anything except be born in the wrong place and sometimes believe in the wrong thing. The IRA, the Ulster Loyalists, and the British government forces were complicit in acts of shocking brutality that have left lasting, perhaps incurable scars on the face of Northern Ireland. Gerry Adams, the previous leader of SF, always denied being in the RA, and there was insufficient evidence to convict him, and I don't think a single person in the whole of the UK believed him in the slightest. When stupid Americans shout "up the RA!", this is what they're endorsing, and the same fucking sectarianism which has blighted Northern Irish politics for longer than I've been alive.

This, to be honest. The barbarism of the so-called 'IRA' has been romanticised amongst a lot of younger people here in Ireland and among Irish Americans who really don't have a great understanding of Irish history or politics. The IRA in the north were nothing but far-left terrorists and glorified drug barons/bank robbers, same with the Unionist paramilitary butchers (UDF/UDR/UVF) who massacred 34 Irish people with the assistance of the British regime in the Dublin-Monaghan bombings, along with many other Catholics. Arlene Fosters' father was severely injured in a shooting and she herself was almost killed in a bomb attack on a bus by the IRA. Sinn Fein/IRA have done nothing to bring the Reunification of Ireland closer, only caused more division, and ultimately the GFA has only painted over the cracks that still exist. They make a mockery of Irish republicanism.

There is also great irony in the fact that Sinn Fein allowed Westminister to impose English-made law legalising gay marraige and abortion in the North, without so much as a whimper of dissent. They are not Irish nationalists.

Criticisms of the IRA and Sinn Féin's role in the Troubles are legitimate and I'm not going to criticise you on your points about the IRA.

However, the last statement is nonsense. Ofc they didn't raise a whimper of dissent. In fact they did the opposite. Their northern leader expressed great delight. They fully agree with marriage equality and are pro-choice. And they're still Irish nationalists. But they realised that these important rights could only be introduced by going over the heads of the DUP. If anything, this shows great maturity, IE instead of automatically rejecting something that originated in Westminster like some might expect them to do, they stood back and saw how it improves ordinary people's lives and backed it.

Irish people typically remember too much history. Ergo FG's efforts at commemorating the Auxies and the Black and Tans went down like a lead balloon. At the same time, I think a lot of people can accept SF's role in the Troubles is the past and move on. They're a different party and movement now compared to 30/40 years ago. People see that and judge them on their current policies.

I have distant Irish ancestry so allow me to speak authoritatively on Irish politics and aggressively chime in on issues.

I appreciate this post.

The REDC poll is due tonight - should be interesting. I wonder how will SF fare, since in the last REDC poll in November it only polled in at 11 points. And interesting to see if the Fine Gael nosedive we saw in the IpsosMRBI and the B&A poll will be replicated as well - and who's to gain.

I would favour a FF-led coalition, and I plan to vote FF 1, 2, and 3 in my constituency (Kerry) in the order of Brassil-Foley-Moriarty. I would've considered throwing a No. 4 at perhaps Labour, but seeing as they aren't running any candidates in Kerry this time round (for this first time in 70 or 80 odd years I believe), I'll be stopping at Norma Numero Dos.

Details of that poll just out now:

FG 23% (-7)
FF 26% (+2)
SF 19% (+8)

Change is versus the last RedC/Business Post poll in November. In the Irish Times one last week, SF were up 7% versus October. While SF’s vote is always a few percent behind their polls, the trend is encouraging. Here’s hoping for an actual FF/FG government and we can finally move into the 20th century with a normal centre-right v centre-left divide in our politics.

Incidentally, in North Kildare, I’ll be voting Labour no 1, Soc Dem no 2, Sf, 3, Green 4, and the two FGers 5 & 6. I’ll leave it there rather than giving a preference to the ruiners in FF, the Trots in the Socialist Workers Party front organisation (People Before Profit) or bible bashers like Renua.

[Ifreann]

Well, normally I'd support the National Party, as they are closer to my trashy right-wing system, but as they're not putting out many candidates, I'd say that Fianna Fail is the way to go. Their commitment to the Irish language is pretty admirable. I don't want to see the language of my ancestors die off, even if it won't affect me over here in America. I think my only issue would be with their economic interventionism, but nothing's perfect, and getting Leo out is the way to go.

Thankfully the lunatic right wing fringe has no hope of ever taking off in Ireland.

Mmm, I don't know about that. They're not doing as well as in other countries, but they are here. I don't see them doing as well as they have in other countries, but it unfrtunately isn't beyond the realm of possibility for them to make some in-roads.

[Major-Tom]

Not Irish, but from what I can recall, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail have had nearly identical economic programs since the 90s, and their only major difference is one is "slightly more centrist and slightly more socially conservative."

I mean, really, it's kinda sad to see. I don't care much for the whole debate over a "United Ireland" since it doesn't affect me, but I think Sinn Fein still looks the most palatable on a purely economic basis, not a cultural or pseudo nationalistic one.

[Socialist Mercanda]

The REDC poll is due tonight - should be interesting. I wonder how will SF fare, since in the last REDC poll in November it only polled in at 11 points. And interesting to see if the Fine Gael nosedive we saw in the IpsosMRBI and the B&A poll will be replicated as well - and who's to gain.

I would favour a FF-led coalition, and I plan to vote FF 1, 2, and 3 in my constituency (Kerry) in the order of Brassil-Foley-Moriarty. I would've considered throwing a No. 4 at perhaps Labour, but seeing as they aren't running any candidates in Kerry this time round (for this first time in 70 or 80 odd years I believe), I'll be stopping at Norma Numero Dos.

Details of that poll just out now:

FG 23% (-7)
FF 26% (+2)
SF 19% (+8)

Change is versus the last RedC/Business Post poll in November. In the Irish Times one last week, SF were up 7% versus October. While SF’s vote is always a few percent behind their polls, the trend is encouraging. Here’s hoping for an actual FF/FG government and we can finally move into the 20th century with a normal centre-right v centre-left divide in our politics.

Incidentally, in North Kildare, I’ll be voting Labour no 1, Soc Dem no 2, Sf, 3, Green 4, and the two FGers 5 & 6. I’ll leave it there rather than giving a preference to the ruiners in FF, the Trots in the Socialist Workers Party front organisation (People Before Profit) or bible bashers like Renua.

Ah now, both the FF TDs in North Kildare are elected after the crash To be quite honest, I don’t agree in any shape or form with the argument that FF crashed the economy (although as a FF supporter, I am biased hehe). Every major party enabled the high spending low taxation high borrowing bonanza, and Fine Gael even pledged for even higher spending and even lower taxation! So, I think no matter who was in charge at the time, the economy and the country’s finances were going to implode - and perhaps we should be thankful it was Ahern, not Kenny, in charge at the time, or it could’ve been a lot worse.

Not Irish, but from what I can recall, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail have had nearly identical economic programs since the 90s, and their only major difference is one is "slightly more centrist and slightly more socially conservative."

I mean, really, it's kinda sad to see. I don't care much for the whole debate over a "United Ireland" since it doesn't affect me, but I think Sinn Fein still looks the most palatable on a purely economic basis, not a cultural or pseudo nationalistic one.

The reason for the identical economic strategy is what they call the Tallaght Strategy. Ireland’s economy was pretty weak for all our history, and the FF gov’t of the late 80s began to implement free-market reforms that would lay the groundwork for the Celtic Tiger. It was a national consensus on the right way forward in terms of the economy. I think for all those bashing ‘reckless’ FF must remember that, before the Celtic Tiger, things were far, far worse then they are now.

Also, a stabbing in Gorey this morning. Wonder how that’ll play into the rising crime aspect of the campaign.

And finally, the Irish Mail on Sunday’s poll was:

FF: 27% (+2)
FG: 22% (-6)
SF: 20% (+5)
GP: 10% (+3)
LAB: 6% (+1)
SD: 3% (-)
S/PBP: 1% (-2)
AON: 1%

There was no figure for Independent candidates, but by simple extracting the sum of the party figures from 100, you can estimate they polled in at about 10% in the poll.

[Bananaistan]

Ah now, both the FF TDs in North Kildare are elected after the crash To be quite honest, I don’t agree in any shape or form with the argument that FF crashed the economy (although as a FF supporter, I am biased hehe). Every major party enabled the high spending low taxation high borrowing bonanza, and Fine Gael even pledged for even higher spending and even lower taxation! So, I think no matter who was in charge at the time, the economy and the country’s finances were going to implode - and perhaps we should be thankful it was Ahern, not Kenny, in charge at the time, or it could’ve been a lot worse.

I don't agree. FF were in power, they did it, not FG, Labour or SF.

And one need only look at their budgets from 2001 to 2004 when a sensible man was in charge of the economy and recognised the dangers of an overheating economy versus the following budgets when Biffo and Ahern went mad with bribing people with their own money. In sum IMO, all governments did well in the 1990s to get the economy going and I ofc will give FF their due as part of that. In the early 2000s McCreevy correctly slowed down on the tax decreases, FF did bad in 2004 locals, blamed McCreevy and shipped him out to Europe and then lost all restraint. I can and will blame them for that change in fiscal policy because they were in power and they did it. Whataboutery about whether FG/Labour would have done the same is pointless when the people had granted FF the stewardship of the economy and they left everyone down.

[Marxist Germany]

The polls are suggesting that Fianna Fail are going to win. This is great as Fine Gael has shown how much of a failure they are by causing the worst housing crisis in our history, they also support abortion and high spending, both of which are policies I oppose so I am happy to see them lose. I am however disappointed by the very poor results Renua is getting.

[Philjia]

The polls are suggesting that Fianna Fail are going to win. This is great as Fine Gael has shown how much of a failure they are by causing the worst housing crisis in our history, they also support abortion and high spending, both of which are policies I oppose so I am happy to see them lose. I am however disappointed by the very poor results Renua is getting.

1. Fianna Fail helped them do it
2. Fianna Fail's policies aren't meaningfully distinct from Fine Gael so the problems will persist

[Marxist Germany]

The polls are suggesting that Fianna Fail are going to win. This is great as Fine Gael has shown how much of a failure they are by causing the worst housing crisis in our history, they also support abortion and high spending, both of which are policies I oppose so I am happy to see them lose. I am however disappointed by the very poor results Renua is getting.

1. Fianna Fail helped them do it
2. Fianna Fail's policies aren't meaningfully distinct from Fine Gael so the problems will persist

Hence why I said i was disappointed to see Renua poll so low, they are the right wing party that Ireland needs as Fianna Fail is not greatly different from FG, however, Fianna Fail is different enough to make them slightly better than FG.

[Bananaistan]

1. Fianna Fail helped them do it
2. Fianna Fail's policies aren't meaningfully distinct from Fine Gael so the problems will persist

Hence why I said i was disappointed to see Renua poll so low, they are the right wing party that Ireland needs as Fianna Fail is not greatly different from FG, however, Fianna Fail is different enough to make them slightly better than FG.

Renua never had a chance and we need them no more than you'd need a hole in your head. They had one councillor elected last year, and he bailed out a week later because they were so crappy. They will end up as a minor footnote in history just like every other hard-right, lunatic fringe party ever.