Taoiseach Time(An Irish Election Thread)

[Bananaistan]

There is a chance but honestly i dont know if it will happen.

Any idea how government formation works? Does FF get the first dibs because they have the most seats or does SF get it because they got the most first preference votes?

The practical politics are that because of the swing to SF, FF and FG stand back and let SF try to form a government without them. This can't work. See my post here.

In any subsequent negotiations between FF and SF and anyone else, the nominee for Taoiseach will be in the mix and subject to agreement. I suspect that SF will be willing to forgo the office of Taoiseach in order to get more of their policies into the programme for government. Micheál Martin is desperate to not be the only FF leader never to have been Taoiseach, SF can use this to their advantage.

[Chestaan]

Sadly a SF led left government seems to be unworkable on the numbers. Would like to see FF and FG come together with someone like the Greens. That would ensure that FF and FG lose even more seats next time

[Outer Sparta]

Sadly a SF led left government seems to be unworkable on the numbers. Would like to see FF and FG come together with someone like the Greens. That would ensure that FF and FG lose even more seats next time

Though SF has made huge gains, they won't have the numbers to muster a left-only coalition and not even in the future. They might as well be in government with someone like FF and address housing and healthcare - the two issues that got them surging. A United Ireland can come later.

[New Bremerton]

I took the OP's linked quiz and scored "match made in heaven" with Fine Gael, which kinda makes sense. They seem pretty liberal and centrist to me. It was under Fine Gael that abortion and same-sex marriage were finally legalized. Fianna Fail is only marginally more conservative, but the two "Civil War" parties were supposed to be the same, weren't they? A lot of right-wing British commentators apparently dislike Leo Varadkar if Twitter is anything to go by.

[Chestaan]

Sadly a SF led left government seems to be unworkable on the numbers. Would like to see FF and FG come together with someone like the Greens. That would ensure that FF and FG lose even more seats next time

Though SF has made huge gains, they won't have the numbers to muster a left-only coalition and not even in the future. They might as well be in government with someone like FF and address housing and healthcare - the two issues that got them surging. A United Ireland can come later.

I'm not too pushed about a United Ireland. They could go in with FF but I think that might make them much less effective in implementing their policies

[Ifreann]

I took the OP's linked quiz and scored "match made in heaven" with Fine Gael, which kinda makes sense. They seem pretty liberal and centrist to me. It was under Fine Gael that abortion and same-sex marriage were finally legalized. Fianna Fail is only marginally more conservative, but the two "Civil War" parties were supposed to be the same, weren't they? A lot of right-wing British commentators apparently dislike Leo Varadkar if Twitter is anything to go by.

Because of Brexit, mostly. Some among the Brits apparently believed that they'd tell us what to do to make Brexit work for them and we'd do it, and were shocked and horrified to discover that we were negotiating for our own interests, supported by the EU.

[Outer Sparta]

Though SF has made huge gains, they won't have the numbers to muster a left-only coalition and not even in the future. They might as well be in government with someone like FF and address housing and healthcare - the two issues that got them surging. A United Ireland can come later.

I'm not too pushed about a United Ireland. They could go in with FF but I think that might make them much less effective in implementing their policies

The priorities should be on housing and healthcare. While I do support a United Ireland proposition it isn't the most important thing.

[Shrillland]

I'm not too pushed about a United Ireland. They could go in with FF but I think that might make them much less effective in implementing their policies

The priorities should be on housing and healthcare. While I do support a United Ireland proposition it isn't the most important thing.

Exactly. There will be a time for SF to break out the old rhetoric next year if the border negotiations go south and things in NI start tanking, but they need to focus on the things that people actually voted for them for right now.

[Outer Sparta]

The priorities should be on housing and healthcare. While I do support a United Ireland proposition it isn't the most important thing.

Exactly. There will be a time for SF to break out the old rhetoric next year if the border negotiations go south and things in NI start tanking, but they need to focus on the things that people actually voted for them for right now.

That means SF should push for a coalition with FF so they can get their demands on housing and healthcare through. The election was about Irish issues, not about Brexit or Britain.

[Patrickina]

I support my mayo.

[New Catalonia]

Exactly. There will be a time for SF to break out the old rhetoric next year if the border negotiations go south and things in NI start tanking, but they need to focus on the things that people actually voted for them for right now.

That means SF should push for a coalition with FF so they can get their demands on housing and healthcare through. The election was about Irish issues, not about Brexit or Britain.

And that’s why Leo is out of a job. He made it all about Britain and Brexit and the average Irish voter just wanted to know how houses aren’t more affordable.

The Irish Journal says there up to 230.000 empty homes in Ireland. Many of the companies that built them went bust. I say the government should take them and use them for social housing.

[Ifreann]

After a three hour meeting of their parliamentary party, Fianna Fáil have announced that they will enter government formation talks with every party except Sinn Féin. The most likely outcome now is some kind of rainbow Grand Coalition of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and some other small party, maybe the Greens or Labour.

[Marxist Germany]

After a three hour meeting of their parliamentary party, Fianna Fáil have announced that they will enter government formation talks with every party except Sinn Féin. The most likely outcome now is some kind of rainbow Grand Coalition of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and some other small party, maybe the Greens or Labour.

Great!

[Greater Carloso]

Good. Sinn Féin are a dangerous organisation that must be kept out of government by any means necessary.

[Ifreann]

Good. Sinn Féin are a dangerous organisation that must be kept out of government by any means necessary.

Between them Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are responsible for every major issue facing Irish society today. They are more dangerous to Ireland than Sinn Féin.

[Greater Carloso]

Good. Sinn Féin are a dangerous organisation that must be kept out of government by any means necessary.

Between them Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are responsible for every major issue facing Irish society today. They are more dangerous to Ireland than Sinn Féin.

As sure as the sun will rise I knew someone would reply with this.

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael brought this country misery in their own ways (including opening up the way for Sinn Féin to surge), but they don't have bomb-makers and gun runners in their ranks. Let's see if Mary Lou will be able to wave her magic wand and make Ireland's problems go away. Hopefully Sinn Féin's success is just that - meteoric - and will quickly burn out when people realise the party is a paper tiger and won't be able to deliver on half its promises.

[New Bremerton]

I took the OP's linked quiz and scored "match made in heaven" with Fine Gael, which kinda makes sense. They seem pretty liberal and centrist to me. It was under Fine Gael that abortion and same-sex marriage were finally legalized. Fianna Fail is only marginally more conservative, but the two "Civil War" parties were supposed to be the same, weren't they? A lot of right-wing British commentators apparently dislike Leo Varadkar if Twitter is anything to go by.

Because of Brexit, mostly. Some among the Brits apparently believed that they'd tell us what to do to make Brexit work for them and we'd do it, and were shocked and horrified to discover that we were negotiating for our own interests, supported by the EU.

British conservatives have described both Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein as being both anti-EU and anti-UK Irish republican parties who will spell trouble for both the EU and the UK. But according to Wikipedia, Fianna Fail is pro-EU and Sinn Fein is soft Eurosceptic. None of the major parties support Ireland leaving the EU.

Also, just out of curiosity, do you ever call your country "southern Ireland" and Great Britain "the mainland"?

[Eglaecia]

Because of Brexit, mostly. Some among the Brits apparently believed that they'd tell us what to do to make Brexit work for them and we'd do it, and were shocked and horrified to discover that we were negotiating for our own interests, supported by the EU.

British conservatives have described both Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein as being both anti-EU and anti-UK Irish republican parties who will spell trouble for both the EU and the UK. But according to Wikipedia, Fianna Fail is pro-EU and Sinn Fein is soft Eurosceptic. None of the major parties support Ireland leaving the EU.

Also, just out of curiosity, do you ever call your country "southern Ireland" and Great Britain "the mainland"?

Not a single person in Ireland calls it "southern Ireland". The only people who call it southern Ireland (or the Free State) are British people over the age of 65.

[Ifreann]

Between them Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are responsible for every major issue facing Irish society today. They are more dangerous to Ireland than Sinn Féin.

As sure as the sun will rise I knew someone would reply with this.

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael brought this country misery in their own ways (including opening up the way for Sinn Féin to surge), but they don't have bomb-makers and gun runners in their ranks.

I dare say that far more shootings and bombing have been facilitated by the successive governments allowing the US military to use Shannon Airport than by the Sinn Féin members who were in the 'RA.

Let's see if Mary Lou will be able to wave her magic wand and make Ireland's problems go away. Hopefully Sinn Féin's success is just that - meteoric - and will quickly burn out when people realise the party is a paper tiger and won't be able to deliver on half its promises.

Sinn Féin probably won't be getting into government, so Mary Lou won't be doing much of anything to solve any of Ireland's problems. That responsibility will fall to the same shower that caused them in the first place. But you could still turn out to be right. Maybe people will be disillusioned by a historic Sinn Féin result still falling short of getting into government. Maybe the Grand Coalition will be able to win back voters before the next election and this one will turn out to have just been a one-off anomaly and not a dramatic shift. But it's also possible that the Grand Coalition will only increase people's dissatisfaction with the status quo and lead to an even bigger shift to the left, with Sinn Féin putting forward more candidates.

---

Because of Brexit, mostly. Some among the Brits apparently believed that they'd tell us what to do to make Brexit work for them and we'd do it, and were shocked and horrified to discover that we were negotiating for our own interests, supported by the EU.

British conservatives have described both Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein as being both anti-EU and anti-UK Irish republican parties who will spell trouble for both the EU and the UK. But according to Wikipedia, Fianna Fail is pro-EU and Sinn Fein is soft Eurosceptic. None of the major parties support Ireland leaving the EU.

Indeed, outright anti-EU sentiment in Ireland is pretty fringe.

Also, just out of curiosity, do you ever call your country "southern Ireland" and Great Britain "the mainland"?

Not ever.

[Outer Sparta]

Between them Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are responsible for every major issue facing Irish society today. They are more dangerous to Ireland than Sinn Féin.

As sure as the sun will rise I knew someone would reply with this.

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael brought this country misery in their own ways (including opening up the way for Sinn Féin to surge), but they don't have bomb-makers and gun runners in their ranks. Let's see if Mary Lou will be able to wave her magic wand and make Ireland's problems go away. Hopefully Sinn Féin's success is just that - meteoric - and will quickly burn out when people realise the party is a paper tiger and won't be able to deliver on half its promises.

If the Grand Coalition keeps on shitting things up with Ireland's domestic issues then they'll be doomed next election. If they bring in Labor or Greens then they might shit things up less but still.

[Bananaistan]

I didn't see FF sticking to one of their pre-election promises: IE no to SF. So my earlier prediction of an FF/SF coalition is null.

An FF/FG + someone else coalition is not a bad outcome IMO. They will be under significant pressure to actually deliver housing and improve the health service. If they fail, they open the door to the left and a SF led coalition. They need radical solutions and the political reality is they will have to shake things up.

Also a plus to FF/FG is they don't have the voodoo economics and won't bring the Socialist Worker's Party Front into government.

[Pasong Tirad]

Between them Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are responsible for every major issue facing Irish society today. They are more dangerous to Ireland than Sinn Féin.

As sure as the sun will rise I knew someone would reply with this.

"Sinn Fein are bad"

"Actually, Sinn Fein aren't that bad"

"HA. SEE! I KNEW SOMEBODY WOULD FIGHT ME ON THIS!"

EDIT: So... FF+FG or another election?

[Outer Sparta]

I didn't see FF sticking to one of their pre-election promises: IE no to SF. So my earlier prediction of an FF/SF coalition is null.

An FF/FG + someone else coalition is not a bad outcome IMO. They will be under significant pressure to actually deliver housing and improve the health service. If they fail, they open the door to the left and a SF led coalition. They need radical solutions and the political reality is they will have to shake things up.

Also a plus to FF/FG is they don't have the voodoo economics and won't bring the Socialist Worker's Party Front into government.

Being in a coalition with another minor party will force FG and FF to deliver real change. Otherwise, if they fuck up there (even with a left-leaning party like Labor, Greens, or Social Democrats apply heat to FG and FF) then SF will gain even more seats next election.

[Marxist Germany]

Looks like a FF/FG/Greens coalition might be coming up.

[Shrillland]

Looks like a FF/FG/Greens coalition might be coming up.

More or less what we were expecting, no one really expected FF or FG to want to work with SF on anything.