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WTAD30 ADIN 011200
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING FOR THE AD’IHANI ISLANDS
TROPICAL CYCLONE DIVISION, TROPICAL METEOROLOGY DEPARTMENT, METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
AD’IHANI ISLANDS WEATHER AGENCY
ISSUANCE NUMBER FIVE FOR TROPICAL STORM ECHO
ISSUED AT 10 AM AD’IHAN STANDARD TIME, OCTOBER 1, 2152
HEADLINE
----
TROPICAL STORM ECHO CHURNING AWAY SOUTH OF ISLANDS...
WARNINGS IN EFFECT
----
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF GRAND ISLAND EXCEPT
THE NORTHERN COAST OF FRONTIER COUNTY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO NOW IN EFFECT
FOR BARRIER ISLAND... AND FOR ÎLES FRANÇOIS-ET-PATRICE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH INLAND
IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF GRAND ISLAND EXCEPT FRONTIER COUNTY AND DANIELS COUNTY,
AND FOR ALL OF BARRIER ISLAND.
THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREAS WITHIN
48 HOURS. NATIONAL STORM READINESS CONDITION IS NOW AT THREE-ALPHA, WHICH MEANS ALL
PREPARATIONS FOR THIS STORM SHOULD BE BEGINNING.
A HIGH WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT NATIONWIDE. THIS MEANS STRONG WINDS, INCLUDING
GUSTS ABOVE GALE-FORCE, ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITHIN 48 HOURS.
LATEST INFORMATION
----
THE AD’IHANI ISLANDS WEATHER AGENCY (AIWA) IS CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF TROPICAL STORM ECHO. AT 9 AM AD’IHAN STANDARD TIME, OCTOBER 1, 2152, THE
CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM ECHO WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 KM SOUTH OF POINTE SUD,
GRAND ISLAND.
THE STORM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ON A VECTOR OF 350 DEGREES AT 3 KNOTS, OR ROUGHLY
NORTH AT ABOUT 6 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
GIVING ECHO TIME TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GREAT METS SEA.
TROPICAL STORM ECHO IS CURRENTLY PACKING MAXIMUM WINDS OF 45 KNOTS, OR 85 KM/H, NEAR
ITS CENTRE. GUSTS FURTHER FROM THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED UP TO 65 KNOTS, OR 120 KM/H.
THE MINIMUM ESTIMATED SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN THE STORM IS 998 HECTOPASCALS.
AT 9 AM, THE GALE WIND FIELD EXTENDED OUTWARDS UP TO 130 KM FROM THE STORM CENTRE. THE
MAXIMUM WINDS WIND FIELD EXTENDS OUTWARDS UP TO 25 KM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT BASED
ON RECENT SATELLITE AND SCATTEROMETER ANALYSIS. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, THE WIND FIELD
WILL EXPAND FURTHER AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITHIN AD’IHAN AS SOON AS
48 HOURS. THEREFORE... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING DECLARED IN ADDITION TO A HIGH
WIND ADVISORY FOR STRONG GUSTS.
CURRENT LOCAL CONDITIONS
----
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WEATHER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ECHO AFFECTING
THE ISLANDS BUT EXPECT SEAS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ECHO
CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. WEATHER IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE GOOD, IF WINDY,
OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS BEFORE CYCLONIC WEATHER SETS IN.
CHECK THAT YOUR HURRICANE PREPARATIONS ARE IN PLACE IN CASE EMERGENCY EVACUATIONS ARE
NEEDED AT ANY POINT.
FORECAST DISCUSSION
----
ON ITS CURRENT PATH, THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. WIND
SHEAR IS LOW AND CONDUCIVE TO TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY... AND SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ALONG ECHO'S PROJECTED PATH ARE WELL OVER 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS
MODERATE... BUT ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN A DEVELOPING HURRICANE. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH IS THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST. THIS TUTT MAY
WELL GENERATE SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR BY THE TIME ECHO CROSSES ITS PATH... BUT ON THE
FLIP SIDE MAY HELP IN THE STORM'S OUTFLOW AND AID INTENSIFICATION.
GIVEN ALL THESE FACTORS... AND ERRING ON THE SIDE OF SAFETY... THE AIWA FORECAST WILL
CALL FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SLIGHTLY MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
THEREAFTER... FORECASTING ECHO TO STRENGTHEN TO A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS
AND POSSIBLY REACH CATEGORY FOUR STATUS BY 96 HOURS.
STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AT THIS TIME... BUT EXCEPTIONALLY ROBUST RIDGING AHEAD
OF THE STORM IN ADDITION TO STRONG MODEL SUPPORT SUGGEST A GENERALLY NORTHWARDS MOTION
WITH LITTLE DEVIATION EAST OR WEST.
THIS FORECAST BRINGS ECHO DIRECTLY OVER THE ISLANDS AS A MIDDLE-END CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE MOVING SLOWLY... WHICH IS CERTAINLY AT PRESENT TIME A WORST-CASE SCENARIO
FORECAST. NOT ONLY WILL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WINDS BE A FACTOR, HEAVY RAINS ACCOMPANYING
THE SYSTEM COULD LEAD TO MAJOR FLOODING ISSUES NATIONWIDE.
THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THAT OF THE HEARTLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE PREDICTION
CENTRE IN OREAN, LIVENTIA, AND IN EXTREMELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.
DATED FORECAST WITH PEAK WINDS AND APPROXIMATE LOCATION
----
TIME OF ISSUANCE: 9 AM, LOCAL, OCTOBER 1, 2152
VALID TILL: 9 AM, LOCAL, OCTOBER 6, 2152 TO BE SUPERSEDED BY FUTURE ISSUANCES
AVERAGE FORECAST ERROR IS 15 KT AND 250 KM IN 72 HOURS, AND 20 KT AND 350 KM BEYOND
DATE-TIME GROUP LISTED IN PAX TIME - TWO HOURS AHEAD OF AD’IHAN STANDARD
STORM TYPES: LOW; DEP: DEPRESSION; STM: STORM; SVR: SEVERE STORM; HU1-HU5: HURRICANE
FORECAST DTG APPROX LOCATION MAX WINDS MAX GUSTS TYPE
INITIAL 011100 550 KM SOUTH OF POINTE SUD 45KT 85KPH 65KT 120KPH STM
12 HRS 012300 490 KM SOUTH OF POINTE SUD 50KT 95KPH 75KT 140KPH SVR
24 HRS 021100 420 KM SOUTH OF POINTE SUD 55KT 100KPH 80KT 150KPH SVR
36 HRS 022300 380 KM SOUTH OF POINTE SUD 65KT 120KPH 90KT 165KPH HU1
48 HRS 031100 325 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF POINTE SUD 80KT 150KPH 100KT 185KPH HU2
72 HRS 041100 180 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF POINTE SUD 100KT 185KPH 125KT 230KPH HU3
USE WITH CAUTION...
96 HRS 051100 30 KM SOUTH OF GRAND ISLAND COAST 120KT 225KPH 145KT 270KPH HU4
120 HRS 061100 OVER GRAND ISLAND EAST OF KINNEY ROAD 85KT 160KPH 105KT 195KPH HU2
REPEATING THE LATEST INFORMATION
----
TIME EFFECTIVE: 9 AM, LOCAL, OCTOBER 1, 2152
TROPICAL CYCLONE: TROPICAL STORM ECHO
POSITION: APPROXIMATELY 550 KM SOUTH OF POINTE SUD, GRAND ISLAND
WINDS: NEAR 85 KM/H, WITH GUSTS TO 120 KM/H
PRESSURE: ESTIMATED AT 998 HPA
MOVEMENT: NORTH AT 6 KM/H
MAXIMUM EXTENT OF WINDS: MAXIMUM WINDS: 25 KM GALE WINDS: 130 KM
WARNINGS IN EFFECT: YES, SEE WARNINGS PARAGRAPH
NEXT WARNING
----
THE AIWA TROPICAL CYCLONE DIVISION OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING
PERIODIC TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC WARNINGS, GENERALLY EVERY 12 HOURS. THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ISSUANCE IS AT 10 PM AD’IHAN STANDARD TIME. IF CONDITIONS WARRANT OR THE SITUATION
CHANGES, AN EARLY SPECIAL BULLETIN MAY BE ISSUED PRIOR TO THAT.
ISSUED BY
----
FORECASTER PAUL MASTERSON
LEAD FORECASTER, TROPICAL CYCLONE DIVISION
by Adihan » Tue Aug 16, 2011 7:03 am
WTAD30 ADIN 041200
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING FOR THE AD’IHANI ISLANDS
TROPICAL CYCLONE DIVISION, TROPICAL METEOROLOGY DEPARTMENT, METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
AD’IHANI ISLANDS WEATHER AGENCY
ISSUANCE NUMBER 14 FOR HURRICANE ECHO
ISSUED AT 10 AM AD’IHAN STANDARD TIME, OCTOBER 4, 2152
HEADLINE
----
HURRICANE EMERGENCY DECLARATION IN EFFECT...
HURRICANE ECHO STALLS SOUTH OF GRAND ISLAND AS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...
WARNINGS IN EFFECT
----
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BARRIER ISLAND... AND FOR ÎLES FRANÇOIS-ET-PATRICE.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, BARRIER ISLAND WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE GUSTS TO HURRICANE
FORCE BUT HURRICANE-STRENGTH WINDS DO NOT EXTEND OUT SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH TO AFFECT
BARRIER ISLAND OR ÎLES FRANÇOIS-ET-PATRICE.
NATIONAL STORM READINESS CONDITION IS NOW AT ONE-ALPHA, WHICH MEANS A HURRICANE IS
AFFECTING THE ISLANDS AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST STORM-FORCE HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON
LAND. THE LOCAL STORM READINESS CONDITION FOR BARRIER ISLAND IS ONE-BRAVO, WHICH MEANS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS AFFECTING THE ISLAND AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF GALE-FORCE HAVE BEEN
REPORTED ON LAND.
A HURRICANE EMERGENCY DECLARATION IS IN EFFECT.
A STATE OF EMERGENCY DECLARATION IN RELATION TO HURRICANE ECHO WAS ISSUED AT 5 PM
LOCAL TIME LAST EVENING BY THE GOVERNMENT. THE PUBLIC IS STRONGLY ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE
OUT. IF YOU ARE ON GRAND ISLAND, YOU ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO EVACUATE TO THE NEAREST
EVACUATION CENTRE IF CONDITIONS ALLOW.
LATEST INFORMATION
----
AT 9 AM AD’IHAN STANDARD TIME, OCTOBER 4, 2152, HURRICANE ECHO WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY 125 KM
SOUTH OF WESTEDGE, GRAND ISLAND.
THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A WELL-DEFINED EYE AIDING IN LOCATING THE CENTRE.
THE STEERING CURRENTS HAVE BROKEN DOWN AND ECHO HAS STALLED. THE HURRICANE HAS MOVED
LITTLE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND IS GENERALLY QUASI-STATIONARY. AN OVERALL NORTHWARDS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
HURRICANE ECHO IS CURRENTLY PACKING MAXIMUM WINDS OF 95 KNOTS, OR 175 KM/H, NEAR ITS
CENTRE. MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS AWAY FROM THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED UP TO 115 KNOTS, OR 215
KM/H.
THE MINIMUM ESTIMATED SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN THE STORM IS 925 HECTOPASCALS.
EXTENT OF WIND FIELD AT 9 AM:
GALE FORCE 34 KNOTS: UP TO 355 KM FROM CYCLONE CENTRE
STORM FORCE 48 KNOTS: UP TO 180 KM FROM CYCLONE CENTRE
HURRICANE FORCE 64 KNOTS: UP TO 80 KM FROM CYCLONE CENTRE
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS: UP TO 35 KM FROM CYCLONE CENTRE
CURRENT LOCAL CONDITIONS
----
CURRENTLY, HURRICANE ECHO IS PRODUCING VERY ROUGH SEAS OFF THE COASTS OF THE ISLANDS
WITH LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH WAVES UP TO 10 METRES.
GUST READINGS FROM POINTE SUD ARE OVER 100 KM/H. THE MAXIMUM GUST READING TAKEN SO FAR
WAS REPORTED AT 7:19 AM THIS MORNING AT WESTEDGE WITH A GUST TO 133.4 KM/H. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO HURRICANE STRENGTH.
RECENT WIND MAXIMA:
LOCATION SUSTAINED TIME (LOCAL) GUST TIME (LOCAL)
POINTE SUD GRI 47KT 87KPH 8:31 AM 56KT 104KPH 8:31 AM
ALTSEND GRI 40KT 74KPH 9:14 AM 49KT 91KPH 8:41 AM
WESTEDGE GRI 56KT 104KPH 7:53 AM 72KT 133KPH 7:19 AM
PILMINSTER GRI 33KT 61KPH 9:18 AM 44KT 82KPH 8:59 AM
AD’IHAN COA 30KT 56KPH 8:56 AM 39KT 72KPH 9:00 AM
NAVON BEACH BRI 36KT 67KPH 8:49 AM 51KT 95KPH 8:44 AM
FORECAST DISCUSSION
----
THIS COULD BE THE BIG BREAK EVERYONE WAS LOOKING FOR. ECHO HAS STALLED IN WATERS
IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF AD’IHAN THAT ARE ONLY AROUND 26 DEGREES CELSIUS... AND OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT IS BELOW AVERAGE. IF ECHO DOES NOT START MOVING SOON... IT COULD UPWELL AND BEGIN
TO WEAKEN.
THE NEW FORECAST ASSUMES THAT ECHO WILL START MOVING AGAIN IN ABOUT 12 HOURS... ALLOWING
IT TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS A HIGH-END CATEGORY TWO STORM OR POSSIBLY INTENSIFY INTO
A CATEGORY THREE MAJOR HURRICANE. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS THAT EARLIER FORECASTS OF A CAT. 4
HURRICANE ARE NOW UNLIKELY TO VERIFY.
THIS FORECAST BRINGS ECHO OVER GRAND ISLAND MOVING VERY SLOWLY. IT SHOWS LANDFALL AROUND
1 PM TOMORROW NEAR WESTEDGE... AND A DEPARTURE POINT NORTHWEST OF KINNEY ROAD ONLY AROUND
7 AM ON OCTOBER 7. THIS WOULD MEAN A TOTAL OF NEARLY 36 HOURS OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS... WHICH COULD LEAD TO MAJOR FLOODING ISSUES NATIONWIDE. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF UP TO 400 CM IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS ARE POSSIBLE CARRYING WITH IT THE THREAT OF
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
ECHO HAS AN EYE ABOUT 30 KM IN DIAMETER, WHICH SHOULD MAKE THE EYE PASSAGE RELATIVELY
SHORT. DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE AFTER LANDFALL EVEN WHEN CONDITIONS APPEAR CALM!
DATED FORECAST WITH PEAK WINDS AND APPROXIMATE LOCATION
----
TIME OF ISSUANCE: 9 AM, LOCAL, OCTOBER 4, 2152
VALID TILL: 9 AM, LOCAL, OCTOBER 8, 2152 TO BE SUPERSEDED BY FUTURE ISSUANCES
AVERAGE FORECAST ERROR IS 15 KT AND 250 KM IN 72 HOURS, AND 20 KT AND 350 KM BEYOND
DATE-TIME GROUP LISTED IN PAX TIME - TWO HOURS AHEAD OF AD’IHAN STANDARD
STORM TYPES: LOW; DEP: DEPRESSION; STM: STORM; SVR: SEVERE STORM; HU1-HU5: HURRICANE
FORECAST DTG APPROX LOCATION MAX WINDS MAX GUSTS TYPE
INITIAL 041100 125 KM SOUTH OF WESTEDGE 95KT 175KPH 115KT 215KPH HU2
12 HRS 042300 110 KM SOUTH OF WESTEDGE 95KT 175KPH 115KT 215KPH HU2
24 HRS 051100 30 KM SOUTH OF WESTEDGE 100KT 185KPH 120KT 225KPH HU3
LAND ETA 051500 LANDFALL FORECAST NEAR WESTEDGE 100KT 185KPH 120KT 225KPH HU3
36 HRS 052300 OVER GRAND ISLAND NEAR PILMINSTER 90KT 165KPH 110KT 205KPH HU2
48 HRS 061100 GRAND ISLAND 40 KM NORTH OF DULLHAM 80KT 150KPH 100KT 185KPH HU1
72 HRS 071100 SEA 80 KM NORTHWEST OF KINNEY ROAD 65KT 120KPH 85KT 160KPH HU1
96 HRS 081100 250 KM NORTH OF GRAND ISLAND COAST 75KT 140KPH 95KT 175KPH HU1
120 HRS 091100 OUT OF AD’IHANI ISLANDS WEATHER AGENCY WARNING RESPONSIBILITY AREA
REPEATING THE LATEST INFORMATION
----
TIME EFFECTIVE: 9 AM, LOCAL, OCTOBER 4, 2152
TROPICAL CYCLONE: HURRICANE ECHO
POSITION: APPROXIMATELY 125 KM SOUTH OF WESTEDGE, GRAND ISLAND
WINDS: NEAR 175 KM/H, WITH GUSTS TO 215 KM/H
PRESSURE: ESTIMATED AT 925 HPA
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY
MAXIMUM EXTENT OF WINDS: 355 KM GALE, 180 KM STORM, 80 KM HURRICANE, 35 KM MAXIMUM
NATIONAL STORM READINESS: ONE-ALPHA (ONE-BRAVO FOR BARRIER ISLAND)
HURRICANE WARNING: GRAND ISLAND
HURRICANE WATCH: BARRIER ISLAND AND ÎLES FRANÇOIS-ET-PATRICE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING: BARRIER ISLAND AND ÎLES FRANÇOIS-ET-PATRICE
NEXT WARNING
----
THE AIWA TROPICAL CYCLONE DIVISION OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING
TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC WARNINGS EVERY SIX HOURS WITH INTERMEDIATE WARNINGS EVERY THREE
HOURS. THE NEXT SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ISSUANCE IS AT 1 PM AD’IHAN STANDARD TIME. IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT OR THE SITUATION CHANGES, AN EARLY SPECIAL BULLETIN MAY BE ISSUED PRIOR
TO THAT.
ISSUED BY
----
FORECASTER TIM LARKIN
DEPUTY LEAD FORECASTER, TROPICAL CYCLONE DIVISION
by Adihan » Mon Sep 05, 2011 2:52 am
by Adihan » Tue Oct 18, 2011 8:57 am
by Adihan » Wed Oct 19, 2011 5:22 pm
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