Not an argument
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by Neo Bavaria » Mon Aug 29, 2016 7:03 pm
by Eol Sha » Mon Aug 29, 2016 7:05 pm
by Occupied Deutschland » Mon Aug 29, 2016 7:05 pm
Ailiailia wrote:
... of the people still living there.
You actually snipped out part of such a short post? Why ...?
by Neo Bavaria » Mon Aug 29, 2016 7:07 pm
by Eol Sha » Mon Aug 29, 2016 7:19 pm
by The Liberated Territories » Mon Aug 29, 2016 7:23 pm
Eol Sha wrote:Neo Bavaria wrote:You didn't make any distinct argument as to why the Shy Tory Effect wouldn't be applicable, you just said "No, but okay". That's not an argument, it's a dismissal. Make an argument as to why it doesn't apply, agree that it applies, or don't respond.
Well, I guess I'll bring up the fact that all of the polling states that Trump is viewed terribly by the American electorate. And not just on questions asking who Americans will vote for, but also on questions asking whether they view Trump favorably or not. He's been in the mid 30s for well over a year now and it hasn't really changed much since he launched his campaign.
If your asking whether I can prove via data that most celebrities aren't "Shy Trumps", though, I can't. All I can do is extrapolate the available polling data to America's celebrities. Although, if the old adage that celebrities are more liberal than most of America is true then it's inconceivable that the majority of them could support Trump.
by Yumyumsuppertime » Mon Aug 29, 2016 7:24 pm
by Ebliania » Mon Aug 29, 2016 7:28 pm
The Liberated Territories wrote:Eol Sha wrote:Well, I guess I'll bring up the fact that all of the polling states that Trump is viewed terribly by the American electorate. And not just on questions asking who Americans will vote for, but also on questions asking whether they view Trump favorably or not. He's been in the mid 30s for well over a year now and it hasn't really changed much since he launched his campaign.
If your asking whether I can prove via data that most celebrities aren't "Shy Trumps", though, I can't. All I can do is extrapolate the available polling data to America's celebrities. Although, if the old adage that celebrities are more liberal than most of America is true then it's inconceivable that the majority of them could support Trump.
That's the point of the shy tory factor, that people are more likely to say that they hate a certain candidate - even principally in the polls, and then go out to vote for them regardless, maybe of some secret desire.
The report found that 2% of the 8.5% error could be explained by Conservative supporters refusing to disclose their voting intentions;
by Neo Bavaria » Mon Aug 29, 2016 7:31 pm
Eol Sha wrote:Neo Bavaria wrote:You didn't make any distinct argument as to why the Shy Tory Effect wouldn't be applicable, you just said "No, but okay". That's not an argument, it's a dismissal. Make an argument as to why it doesn't apply, agree that it applies, or don't respond.
Well, I guess I'll bring up the fact that all of the polling states that Trump is viewed terribly by the American electorate. And not just on questions asking who Americans will vote for, but also on questions asking whether they view Trump favorably or not. He's been in the mid 30s for well over a year now and it hasn't really changed much since he launched his campaign.
If your asking whether I can prove via data that most celebrities aren't "Shy Trumps", though, I can't. All I can do is extrapolate the available polling data to America's celebrities. Although, if the old adage that celebrities are more liberal than most of America is true then it's inconceivable that the majority of them could support Trump.
by Neo Bavaria » Mon Aug 29, 2016 7:33 pm
Ebliania wrote:The Liberated Territories wrote:
That's the point of the shy tory factor, that people are more likely to say that they hate a certain candidate - even principally in the polls, and then go out to vote for them regardless, maybe of some secret desire.
I thought that those voters came from the "Undecided" category.The report found that 2% of the 8.5% error could be explained by Conservative supporters refusing to disclose their voting intentions;
by Eol Sha » Mon Aug 29, 2016 7:35 pm
The Liberated Territories wrote:Eol Sha wrote:Well, I guess I'll bring up the fact that all of the polling states that Trump is viewed terribly by the American electorate. And not just on questions asking who Americans will vote for, but also on questions asking whether they view Trump favorably or not. He's been in the mid 30s for well over a year now and it hasn't really changed much since he launched his campaign.
If your asking whether I can prove via data that most celebrities aren't "Shy Trumps", though, I can't. All I can do is extrapolate the available polling data to America's celebrities. Although, if the old adage that celebrities are more liberal than most of America is true then it's inconceivable that the majority of them could support Trump.
That's the point of the shy tory factor, that people are more likely to say that they hate a certain candidate - even principally in the polls, and then go out to vote for them regardless, maybe of some secret desire.
by Geilinor » Mon Aug 29, 2016 7:36 pm
Neo Bavaria wrote:Eol Sha wrote:Well, I guess I'll bring up the fact that all of the polling states that Trump is viewed terribly by the American electorate. And not just on questions asking who Americans will vote for, but also on questions asking whether they view Trump favorably or not. He's been in the mid 30s for well over a year now and it hasn't really changed much since he launched his campaign.
If your asking whether I can prove via data that most celebrities aren't "Shy Trumps", though, I can't. All I can do is extrapolate the available polling data to America's celebrities. Although, if the old adage that celebrities are more liberal than most of America is true then it's inconceivable that the majority of them could support Trump.
He's been consistently over 30% for 2 months now, and even passed Clinton during the RNC, at which point he dropped again because suddenly all the major polls except LA Times/USC decided that it was time to "recalculate" how they tallied votes for each candidate.
by Neo Bavaria » Mon Aug 29, 2016 7:38 pm
Eol Sha wrote:The Liberated Territories wrote:
That's the point of the shy tory factor, that people are more likely to say that they hate a certain candidate - even principally in the polls, and then go out to vote for them regardless, maybe of some secret desire.
Yeah, I know. The argument means you can't really disprove the idea of the "shy Tory", or "shy Trump" in this case, until after the election is held. You can hold up the pre-election polling and talk about how exceedingly unlikely it is that there are "shy Trumps", but your basically yelling at a closed door since the argument is predicated on the polls being wrong.
Not that I'm saying that's necessarily what Neo-Bavaria is thinking, but still...
by Neo Bavaria » Mon Aug 29, 2016 7:40 pm
Geilinor wrote:Neo Bavaria wrote:He's been consistently over 30% for 2 months now, and even passed Clinton during the RNC, at which point he dropped again because suddenly all the major polls except LA Times/USC decided that it was time to "recalculate" how they tallied votes for each candidate.
What you're saying makes no sense and is not rooted in reality. The pollsters did not "recalculate" how they tallied votes, but many of then switched from surveying registered voters to likely voters, as they do every election. Likely voters should benefit a Republican because Republicans are more likely to vote. That is not the case this election.
by Geilinor » Mon Aug 29, 2016 7:42 pm
Neo Bavaria wrote:Eol Sha wrote:Yeah, I know. The argument means you can't really disprove the idea of the "shy Tory", or "shy Trump" in this case, until after the election is held. You can hold up the pre-election polling and talk about how exceedingly unlikely it is that there are "shy Trumps", but your basically yelling at a closed door since the argument is predicated on the polls being wrong.
Not that I'm saying that's necessarily what Neo-Bavaria is thinking, but still...
My point is mainly that this strongly fits a potential Shy Tory scenario. There is a candidate who in the media and socially is being utterly lambasted, but whose actual policy statements are in truth are popular in and of themselves and would strongly benefit a large percentage of the electorate. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a fairly large number of voters who said they were voting for Clinton because it was "popular" while fully intending to vote for Trump because he would benefit them more than Clinton.
by Communist Xomaniax » Mon Aug 29, 2016 7:43 pm
Eol Sha wrote:[ the argument is predicated on the polls being wrong.
by Neo Bavaria » Mon Aug 29, 2016 7:46 pm
Geilinor wrote:Neo Bavaria wrote:My point is mainly that this strongly fits a potential Shy Tory scenario. There is a candidate who in the media and socially is being utterly lambasted, but whose actual policy statements are in truth are popular in and of themselves and would strongly benefit a large percentage of the electorate. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a fairly large number of voters who said they were voting for Clinton because it was "popular" while fully intending to vote for Trump because he would benefit them more than Clinton.
Trump's policy statements are not popular among the public. Most people are opposed to the wall and Muslim ban.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/pew-immigration-wall-227367
http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/06/americans_dont_like_trumps_muslim_ban_orlando_resp.html
by Neo Bavaria » Mon Aug 29, 2016 7:47 pm
by Ism » Mon Aug 29, 2016 7:49 pm
Neo Bavaria wrote:Eol Sha wrote:Yeah, I know. The argument means you can't really disprove the idea of the "shy Tory", or "shy Trump" in this case, until after the election is held. You can hold up the pre-election polling and talk about how exceedingly unlikely it is that there are "shy Trumps", but your basically yelling at a closed door since the argument is predicated on the polls being wrong.
Not that I'm saying that's necessarily what Neo-Bavaria is thinking, but still...
My point is mainly that this strongly fits a potential Shy Tory scenario. There is a candidate who in the media and socially is being utterly lambasted, but whose actual policy statements are in truth are popular in and of themselves and would strongly benefit a large percentage of the electorate. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a fairly large number of voters who said they were voting for Clinton because it was "popular" while fully intending to vote for Trump because he would benefit them more than Clinton.
by Neo Bavaria » Mon Aug 29, 2016 7:51 pm
Ism wrote:Neo Bavaria wrote:My point is mainly that this strongly fits a potential Shy Tory scenario. There is a candidate who in the media and socially is being utterly lambasted, but whose actual policy statements are in truth are popular in and of themselves and would strongly benefit a large percentage of the electorate. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a fairly large number of voters who said they were voting for Clinton because it was "popular" while fully intending to vote for Trump because he would benefit them more than Clinton.
What exactly is a "large" percentage?
by Eol Sha » Mon Aug 29, 2016 7:56 pm
Neo Bavaria wrote:Eol Sha wrote:Well, I guess I'll bring up the fact that all of the polling states that Trump is viewed terribly by the American electorate. And not just on questions asking who Americans will vote for, but also on questions asking whether they view Trump favorably or not. He's been in the mid 30s for well over a year now and it hasn't really changed much since he launched his campaign.
If your asking whether I can prove via data that most celebrities aren't "Shy Trumps", though, I can't. All I can do is extrapolate the available polling data to America's celebrities. Although, if the old adage that celebrities are more liberal than most of America is true then it's inconceivable that the majority of them could support Trump.
He's been consistently over 30% for 2 months now, and even passed Clinton during the RNC, at which point he dropped again because suddenly all the major polls except LA Times/USC decided that it was time to "recalculate" how they tallied votes for each candidate.
Even then he's only been in the 30's for, collectively, a month and a half since RCP started collecting polls, and even surpassed Clinton twice. Two weeks ago he switched over to formal speeches instead of rallies and since then he's risen 2 points, and is still rising. If you only use studies that include Johnson and Stein, Trump is 4.5 points behind, and likely will rise.
There is absolutely no evidence to suggest that Americans are overwhelmingly disgusted or repulsed by Donald Trump, and the more Clinton continues to do things like adamantly deny that the black community is facing any problems whatsoever, or call all Trump supporters (including the black and Latino ones) racists, the more voters will move to Trump.
There is absolutely no evidence to suggest that Americans are overwhelmingly disgusted or repulsed by Donald Trump, and the more Clinton continues to do things like adamantly deny that the black community is facing any problems whatsoever, or call all Trump supporters (including the black and Latino ones) racists, the more voters will move to Trump.
Clinton continues to do things like adamantly deny that the black community is facing any problems whatsoever,
call all Trump supporters (including the black and Latino ones) racists, the more voters will move to Trump.
by Ebliania » Mon Aug 29, 2016 7:58 pm
Neo Bavaria wrote:Ism wrote:
What exactly is a "large" percentage?
Not huge, but enough that it could be interesting. In the British election it was 8.5%. All Trump would need to win the popular vote would be about 3% composed exclusively of Hillary supporters, but if he achieved 8.5% variation it would be a landslide victory.
by Soldati Senza Confini » Mon Aug 29, 2016 7:58 pm
Neo Bavaria wrote:Geilinor wrote:What you're saying makes no sense and is not rooted in reality. The pollsters did not "recalculate" how they tallied votes, but many of then switched from surveying registered voters to likely voters, as they do every election. Likely voters should benefit a Republican because Republicans are more likely to vote. That is not the case this election.
Firstly, the unique aspects of this election mean that "likely" (see: traditional) voters are not necessarily the only ones who are likely to go out and vote. Secondly, I'm not talking about that, I'm talking about the fact that they strongly screwed with their method of calculating who was voting for who. E.G., some polls decided that all "Never-Trump" voters were Clinton supporters, even though that is not necessarily true. I think it was Reuters that polled for all candidates up until the Conventions at which point they switched over to just Clinton and Trump.
Tekania wrote:Welcome to NSG, where informed opinions get to bump-heads with ignorant ideology under the pretense of an equal footing.
by Eol Sha » Mon Aug 29, 2016 7:59 pm
Neo Bavaria wrote:Eol Sha wrote:Yeah, I know. The argument means you can't really disprove the idea of the "shy Tory", or "shy Trump" in this case, until after the election is held. You can hold up the pre-election polling and talk about how exceedingly unlikely it is that there are "shy Trumps", but your basically yelling at a closed door since the argument is predicated on the polls being wrong.
Not that I'm saying that's necessarily what Neo-Bavaria is thinking, but still...
My point is mainly that this strongly fits a potential Shy Tory scenario. There is a candidate who in the media and socially is being utterly lambasted, but whose actual policy statements are in truth are popular in and of themselves and would strongly benefit a large percentage of the electorate. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a fairly large number of voters who said they were voting for Clinton because it was "popular" while fully intending to vote for Trump because he would benefit them more than Clinton.
by Soldati Senza Confini » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:02 pm
Neo Bavaria wrote:There is absolutely no evidence to suggest that Americans are overwhelmingly disgusted or repulsed by Donald Trump, and the more Clinton continues to do things like adamantly deny that the black community is facing any problems whatsoever, or call all Trump supporters (including the black and Latino ones) racists, the more voters will move to Trump.
Tekania wrote:Welcome to NSG, where informed opinions get to bump-heads with ignorant ideology under the pretense of an equal footing.
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