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#omericavotes21: who is who and what is what in the federal election
a loss of supply has led to a dissolution of parliament and many confused people
Georgetown — Parliament has been dissolved! Omerica will head to the polls to elect a new House of Representatives after Prime Minister Staci Laurent suffered a defeat on the budget, where the fractured opposition united to topple the Socialist government in a 145–139 vote.
what happened?
The last election in 2019 was inconclusive, producing no majority for any one political party. The governing Socialists, who were seeking a third term in office, were by far the largest, but remained short of the 145 seat mark needed to form a majority government. Under normal circumstances, this would have led to a coalition government, which, while uncommon, is not unheard of in Omerican politics.
Both the centre-left Socialist government and centre-right National-Liberal opposition sought to court the left-wing, socially conservative Confederation of Peoples, a party which has made inroads into heavily Takiari areas that were once Socialist strongholds. With the CoP ruling out the possibility of formal cooperation with both the incumbent government and opposition, then-PM William Lee Hennessey opted to form a “slalom government”, a minority government that was not propped up by confidence and supply pacts that would have been usual in the formation of a government without a majority. On economic issues, Hennessey would be able to count on Confederation support to pass legislation, while legislation on social issues could be passed with support (or mere abstention) from the Liberals.
However, with Hennessey’s poll numbers starting to stagnate and decline after seven years of grace, his deputy Staci Laurent won sufficient support among the Socialist members of parliament to call for a leadership ballot, which she contested and won. Five months later, her refusal to negotiate on her proposals to lower excise taxes on alcohol and freeze those on tobacco and cannabis convinced the Confederation to vote against the Laurent government’s first budget, causing her to lose a money vote (“loss of supply”), which resulted in the fall of the Socialist minority government.
By law, Laurent had two choices: resign and advise President Anatarea Mahana to invite Leader of the Opposition Aleksänder Mätjassen to form a government or advise the President to dissolve Parliament and call for a snap election (an early election). Now Laurent has left the Victoria Palace with the dissolution order, signifying the beginning of the 2021 federal election.
what happens next?
With the House of Representatives now dissolved, the Federal Electoral Commission has ten days to draw up the writs of election. After the President issues the writs for the 288 electorates, there will be between 10 and 27 days for candidate nominations, with 21 being the norm. After nominations close, there must be at least 23 and no more than 31 days for campaigning, with the date of the poll fixed on a Saturday.
Each of Omerica’s 288 electoral districts will chose a single Member of Parliament by first-past-the-post voting, which has often been criticised for the tendency of “vote-splitting” to affect the results. Vote-splitting between the Liberals and Socialists during the first decade of the 21st century led to several consecutive majority governments for the National Party, who enjoyed strongly supportive Parliaments despite often being beaten out by the left-wing opposition in the popular vote. With the gradual shift of the Liberals towards the right over the course of the millenium, the Socialists have become the primary beneficiaries of vote-splitting, but the rise of the left-wing conservative Confederation has given pause to predictions of a Socialist era of dominance.
If a single party can win a majority of seats, they will be guaranteed to form a government. If no party wins a majority, one of several things may happen. Two parties may form a coalition, working together to form a government that has a majority in the House of Representatives; the last coalition government (between the Liberals and Socialists) existed between 2007 and 2010. If no coalition is formed, the largest party may run a minority government, the situation in the last Parliament before its dissolution. Such a government may or may not seek out agreements that guarantee it a majority on matters of confidence or supply—the last National government elected in 2010 reached a confidence and supply agreement with the Liberals, while the current Socialist government opted not to seek out any such pacts—though the comfort they provide means they usually happen.
who is who?
Prime Minister Staci Laurent will be seeking a Socialist majority to guarantee that she will be able to reform the current excise staircase, while National leader Aleksänder Mätjassen, who took the helm from Steven Harrison in 2019, will be looking to guide his centre-right party to the magic 145 seats needed for a majority government and kill off Laurent’s plans. Both John Holst of the Liberals and Kirakina Matarea of the Confederation will seek to hold the balance of power in the next Parliament and will be likely targets for National and Socialist attacks respectively. Other smaller parties, such as the environmentalist Movement 1988 and solidly right Democratic Labour Party, will also be looking to get into the House of Representatives, but look unlikely to muster the necessary votes to get into the lower house of Parliament.
The Confederation will look to hold on to their 14 electorates and make deeper inroads into Takiari territory, where voters tend to be friendly to the economic policies of the Socialists, but sceptical of their socially liberal attitudes. Opposition Leader Mätjassen has taken the Nationals closer to the centre in an attempt to court Liberal voters, who will be a key demographic for the Nationals if they want to form the first right-wing federal government in eight years.
where will the election be won?
Key fights will take place in Selaga, whose eighteen electorates are crucial for Laurent’s election hopes, and Durham, a canton that overwhelmingly voted Socialist in the last three elections but may take many of its twenty-seven electorates back to the National camp. The Nationals will look to quash the Liberals in their strongholds in Philibiscostal, the financial centre where the centrists hold a majority of the 43 electorates, while the Socialists will be defending the capital of Georgetown from an assault by the Liberals.
Mätjassen’s leadership of the Nationals may help the opposition solidify its hold on much of the Aurentine southwest and makes inroads into Mätjassen’s native Kalsden, where the Socialists have traditionally done well. Meanwhile, Socialist hopes in the Francophone north look good thanks to Laurent’s leadership; her electorate in the Mid-Provence is in little danger of falling to the opposition. With Francophones appearing to gravitate towards the Socialists and Aurentines to the Nationals, Anglophone and Takiari voters will decide the next occupant of Rucker’s Hill.
With excise duties a major point of the campaign, the Socialists may find little love in Selaga, Chamangol, Alopi and Faroka, meaning that they will need excellent results in the beer-loving Anglophone cantons to win reelection. Laurent has been buoyed in the polls by a stable economy and a relatively tranquil Esportiva, with Socialist stewardship keeping Omerica’s proud tradition of neutrality afloat. Dissatisfaction with Laurent’s stubbornness will be the major challenge for the Socialists to overcome, as the Liberals and Confederation have found it difficult to work with the Prime Minister and may be hesitant to form a coalition that would keep her in power. For Laurent to remain in power, the Socialists will need to muster 145 seats in Parliament.
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