Ukraine Megathread: Crimea River Build a Bridge, Get Over It

[Reploid Productions]

This thread is so quiet whenever Lyt is banned.

Keep up the flamebaity gloating, we'll find out how much quieter it is when you're banned.

*** Warned for flamebaiting/gloating. ***


~Evil Forum Empress Rep Prod the Ninja Mod
~She who wields the Banhammer; master of the mighty moderation no-dachi Kiritateru Teikoku

[Padnak]

Honest question, hows the cease fire holding? The news can't seem to make up its mind

[West Aurelia]

Honest question, hows the cease fire holding? The news can't seem to make up its mind

Seems to be holding for now - there was a prisoner exchange and the rebels pulled back heavy weapons. There are some violations, but it's not all out war.

[Dr Freud]

I was talking about during Soviet rule. Remember what you actually posted? "During the "horrible" Soviet rule, the population of Balts in the Baltics increased." As I said, this is only true of Lithuanians in Lithuania. The number of Estonians in Estonia and Latvians in Latvia decreased during Soviet rule.

Indeed, someone with simple reading comprehension might have been able to work out that I wasn't disputing that their populations fell post-independence, given that I stated that "Nevertheless, the population of these groups has decreased since independence".

Here's what I wrote: During the "horrible" Soviet rule, the population of Balts in the Baltics increased. During the "super-duper-nice-&-shiny" democratic rule, the population of Balts in the Baltics decreased, and the trio are in a demographic death spiral. Those are the facts.

Here's your response to that: To break that fact down a little bit, the population of Lithuanians in Lithuania increased. The population of Estonians in Estonia and Latvians in Latvia both declined. Nevertheless, the population of these groups has decreased since independence...

That's you arguing that the population of Lithuanians in Lithuania increased, while the population of Estonians in Estonia and Latvians in Latvia decreased, in response to my claim, that during the Soviet Union, the population of each increased, and after the fall of the USSR, the population of each, decreased. In the post-Stalin era, (which was the era that I was talking about,) the populations of Estonians in Estonia, Latvians in Latvia and Lithuanians in Lithuania, all increased. After the fall of the USSR, they all decreased. Your breakdown makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

See, now that's where the confusion is coming from. When you said during "Soviet rule" I thought you meant during "Soviet rule", as in the period where these countries were ruled by the Soviet Union. But really, when you said "Soviet rule" you meant "not Soviet rule, but only a previously unstated part of Soviet rule". You'll have to excuse me, but I have this tendence to assume that what someone says is what they mean and not some other meaning that they only intend to divulge further down the line after their original meaning has been shown to be factually inaccurate.

Emigration is a cause of negative natural population growth in the Baltic states, as I shall immediately explain. Most emigrants are young people so high emigration increases the median age - this is borne out by the statistics. According to the UN, the median age for Lithuania increased from 32.7 to 39.7 between 1990 and 2015. Figures for Estonia and Latvia are 34.4 to 41.3 and 34.6 to 41.7 respectively. As the population ages, the number of children born per woman drops because older people are less likely to have children, while the death rate per person increases because older people are more likely to die.

Of course, there are other causes that could lead to the death rate increasing, like poorer health. But that doesn't apply to the Baltic states in the period 1990-present as the life expectancy in all three countries has increased rather than decreased as would be the result if health was declining.

The fertility rate has, of course, been dropping. In Lithuania, this has little to do with independence or the lack thereof. Rather, its a trend that has been ongoing since the 1960s. And unfortunately it is often a result of other, positive outcomes like improved education levels for women, greater female participation in the workforce, waiting longer to get married and greater control by women over the use of contraception. Its a problem which will affect almost every developed country and one of the keys to fighting it is again to improve living standards which may improve or at least slow the decline in fertility and attract back emigrants or even new migrants.

In Lithuanian it has little to do with independence, eh? Between 1982 and 1986, Lithuania's fertility rate was on a constant increase. Furthermore, in 1978, the rate was 2.09; in 1987 the rate was 2.11, which shows a possible stabilization of the fertility rate. Between 1991 and 2002, the fertility rate fell steadily, although it's currently stabilizing around the 1.6 mark.

Correlation is not causation. If you could explain how becoming independent has cut Lithuania's fertility rate I'd be interested to know.

What I can see is that drops in the fertility rate is often correlated with economic turmoil (unemployment and income uncertainty being factors that put off expensive decisions like having a child - that's the causation). The collapse of the Soviet economy certainly led to economic turmoil which lasted right through the 90s, which would explain why Lithuania's fertility rate dropped until 2002 since when it has been gradually picking up.

Well thanks anyway for pointing out that 2.56 is less than 2.91 - when you find someone who disagrees you might actually have an argument.

So, according to you, an argument is not, a reason or set of reasons given with the aim of persuading others that an action or idea is right or wrong?

Yes, it is. And as soon as you find someone who needs to be persuaded that 2.56 is less than 2.91, you'll have an argument there.

[West Aurelia]

Ukraine pulls back heavy weapons.

[United Marxist Nations]

Ukraine pulls back heavy weapons.

So, that's both sides now, right?

[Jinwoy]

Ukraine pulls back heavy weapons.

That's good news. Finally, a potential for peace.
Now all the Ukrainian government needs to do is recognise the rebels so negotiations can begin to address the rebels' greviances.

[West Aurelia]

Ukraine pulls back heavy weapons.

So, that's both sides now, right?

Yes.

[United Marxist Nations]

So, that's both sides now, right?

Yes.

*dances a jig in celebration*

[The balkens]

Ukraine pulls back heavy weapons.

That's good news. Finally, a potential for peace.
Now all the Ukrainian government needs to do is recognise the rebels so negotiations can begin to address the rebels' greviances.

Lol no.

[Malgrave]

An interesting guardian article explaining the reasons behind the paid for "anti-maidan" protest that occured in Moscow a few days ago.

[Lytenburgh]

1) The Ukrainian national currency - Gryvna - has been in very, very, very bad shape lately. Currently (27.02) $1 costs 31.5 gryvnas. Just a year ago, right after Maidan, it costed 7.5 gryvnas.

According to the "Bloomberg" article:

The Ukrainian hryvnia is by far the worst performer, having lost another 11 percent of its dollar value today. In response, the Ukrainian National Bank strengthened its capital controls, banning banks from issuing hryvnia loans with the purpose of buying foreign currency and warning importers that any prepayments of more than $50,000 will be scrutinized.

Ukraine's devaluation has more varied causes than those in other post-Soviet countries. Russia has taken out Ukraine's biggest foreign currency sources, annexing its tourist mecca, Crimea, and unleashing a war in the eastern industrial regions where most of the country's metals production is concentrated. In November 2014, the last month for which International Monetary Fund data are available, Ukraine's exports stood at a little less than $4 billion, compared with $5.6 billion the year before. Meanwhile, the National Bank of Ukraine has proven remarkably inept. Its attempts to control the exchange rate amid dwindling reserves resulted in a rampant black market. When the central bank began floating the currency, at the recommendation of the IMF, it began recording its greatest losses in reserves - a reflection of pent-up demand for foreign exchange and anxieties about clueless regulatory efforts to come.

Today's moves prove such fears were justified. Perhaps when long awaited IMF funds arrive in the coming weeks to replenish Ukraine's foreign reserves, the National Bank will come to its senses and cancel the useless capital restrictions. In the meantime, they will contribute to the bank's further loss of control over the foreign exchange market.

But this is just one of many simptoms of unhealthy Ukrainian economy:

2) The minimum wage in Ukraine due to the fall of the hryvnia is already lower than in Zambia and Ghana

After another fall of hryvnia the minimum wage in Ukraine has established an anti-record - 1218 UAH - which is now less than 43 dollars, writes "Segondya."

Even in poor Bangladesh, Ghana and Zambia people receive $4 more. Much richer are residents of Lesotho, Gambia and Chad, where the minimal wage reaches 51 dollars.

For comparison, the highest minimum wage in the world - in Australia. There worker earns no less than $ 2,700.

3) Petrol price increased to 27 hryvnia per liter

In just one day's span the price of petrol increased by three hryvnia per liter at one of the fuel gas station chains.

Today, February 24, in the retail market of petroleum products was one of the most significant rise in prices of the resource in the history of the industry. This is reported by publication OilNews citing Consulting Group A-95.

Thus, the network of gas stations stations WOG raised the price of A-95 in one night by 3 hryvnia per liter and its value reached 26.99 hryvnia per liter. In turn, consolidated chai on gas stations "Privat" has raised the price of the "fifth" gasoline by only one hryvnia to 20.60 hryvnia per liter. Thus, the difference in the price of gasoline by "Private" and the networks of other major operators reached 5-6.3 hryvnia per liter.

On average, prices in the chains of major operators increased by 1.00-1.40 hryvnia per liter.

These changes have led to an increase in average retail prices in Ukraine. Gasoline A-92 (22.58 hryvnia per liter) and A-95 (22.89 hryvnia per liter) increased by 1.31 hryvnia, and DT (22.87 hryvnia per liter) increased by 1.31 hryvnia. Premium brand's "fifth" (24.13 hryvnia per liter) increased by 1.36 hryvnia.

Earlier today it was reported that in Ukraine during the period from 10 to 20 February fuel price went up by 18%.

we remind you, that the experts also predicted that the price of gasoline A-95 in February, could jump up to 24 hryvnia.

[Jinwoy]

That's good news. Finally, a potential for peace.
Now all the Ukrainian government needs to do is recognise the rebels so negotiations can begin to address the rebels' greviances.

Lol no.

Just because you want to raze all the cities, rape all the women and salt the land, doesn't mean we should.

There is no peace until we address their grievances, whether you want to admit it or not.

[Washington Resistance Army]

Lol no.

Just because you want to raze all the cities, rape all the women and salt the land, doesn't mean we should.

There is no peace until we address their grievances, whether you want to admit it or not.

There would have been peace months ago if Russia didn't start sending equipment and having it's oh so well trained troops get lost and stumble into another country. Russia has prolonged the conflict and caused more bloodshed, that's on them.

[The balkens]

Lol no.

Just because you want to raze all the cities, rape all the women and salt the land, doesn't mean we should.

There is no peace until we address their grievances, whether you want to admit it or not.

Where....The fuck did i suggest we do this at all? For what have the Rebels done to deserve legitimacy? gee, beaten back a badly trained and poorly equipped military while being supplied with Russian weapons, supplemented by Russian volunteers.
That is literally like saying that the chechens won legitimacy after beating back the Russians in the 90s.

[Lytenburgh]

There would have been peace months ago if Russia didn't start sending equipment and having it's oh so well trained troops get lost and stumble into another country. Russia has prolonged the conflict and caused more bloodshed, that's on them.

A graveyard-style peace? Because we all have seen how the UkrArmy and NatzGuards are acvieving "peace".

[Jinwoy]

Just because you want to raze all the cities, rape all the women and salt the land, doesn't mean we should.

There is no peace until we address their grievances, whether you want to admit it or not.

Where....The fuck did i suggest we do this at all? For what have the Rebels done to deserve legitimacy? gee, beaten back a badly trained and poorly equipped military while being supplied with Russian weapons, supplemented by Russian volunteers.
That is literally like saying that the chechens won legitimacy after beating back the Russians in the 90s.

It was a intentional exaggeration, but the only other alternative is decimating the Novorossiyan rebel forces. Peace comes from recognition that they are a unified entity, which Poroshenko does not, so negotiations can begin on the road to peace.

[Washington Resistance Army]

There would have been peace months ago if Russia didn't start sending equipment and having it's oh so well trained troops get lost and stumble into another country. Russia has prolonged the conflict and caused more bloodshed, that's on them.

A graveyard-style peace? Because we all have seen how the UkrArmy and NatzGuards are acvieving "peace".

Yes Comrade Userperson Vanquisher of the Russophobes Lytenburh, the Ukrainian government was busy setting up Auschwitz 2.0 to kill all the dirty Russian scum in the east

[The balkens]

Where....The fuck did i suggest we do this at all? For what have the Rebels done to deserve legitimacy? gee, beaten back a badly trained and poorly equipped military while being supplied with Russian weapons, supplemented by Russian volunteers.
That is literally like saying that the chechens won legitimacy after beating back the Russians in the 90s.

It was a intentional exaggeration, but the only other alternative is decimating the Novorossiyan rebel forces. Peace comes from recognition that they are a unified entity, which Poroshenko does not, so negotiations can begin on the road to peace.

Which decided to follow the minsk agreements only after its goals were accomplished, sorry, but they cant pick and choose what the word "ceasefire" means.

[Jinwoy]

A graveyard-style peace? Because we all have seen how the UkrArmy and NatzGuards are acvieving "peace".

Yes Comrade Userperson Vanquisher of the Russophobes Lytenburh, the Ukrainian government was busy setting up Auschwitz 2.0 to kill all the dirty Russian scum in the east

You are also exaggerating.
But the war won't be won without a shittonne of deaths. CD
To suggest that the war can be won, by the Ukraine, without another shot is naïve and probably a little insane.

[The balkens]

A graveyard-style peace? Because we all have seen how the UkrArmy and NatzGuards are acvieving "peace".

Yes Comrade Userperson Vanquisher of the Russophobes Lytenburh, the Ukrainian government was busy setting up Auschwitz 2.0 to kill all the dirty Russian scum in the east

DAMN IT MAN! QUIT GIVING AWAY OUR PLANS! UMN DISCOVERED THAT WE WERE ILLUMINATI YESTERDAY VIA TG!

(Obvs sarcasm is obvious, even UMN could see it, )

[Washington Resistance Army]

Yes Comrade Userperson Vanquisher of the Russophobes Lytenburh, the Ukrainian government was busy setting up Auschwitz 2.0 to kill all the dirty Russian scum in the east

You are also exaggerating.
But the war won't be won without a shittonne of deaths. CD
To suggest that the war can be won, by the Ukraine, without another shot is naïve and probably a little insane.

And where exactly did I say it would be won without another shot?

I said the war would have ended months ago because the rebels were wildly disorganized and under equipped, Russia has prolonged the fighting and bloodshed by "losing" military equipment and troops.

[Jinwoy]

It was a intentional exaggeration, but the only other alternative is decimating the Novorossiyan rebel forces. Peace comes from recognition that they are a unified entity, which Poroshenko does not, so negotiations can begin on the road to peace.

Which decided to follow the minsk agreements only after its goals were accomplished, sorry, but they cant pick and choose what the word "ceasefire" means.

You missed the point entirely. Poroshenko refuses to give the rebel threat legitimacy, instead using Russia as a proxy for establishing agreements. Its any wonder why they don't work.

Poroshenko should address the rebels directly, not through Russia. Concrete steps towards peace, and I simply don't see peace when all the negotiations are done through a country that's only involvement is a shared border.

[West Aurelia]

An interesting piece on the Dudayev battalion, a jihadist group fighting for Ukraine in support of their "brothers" in Chechnya and Dagestan.

[Jinwoy]

An interesting piece on the Dudayev battalion, a jihadist group fighting for Ukraine in support of their "brothers" in Chechnya and Dagestan.

So these people support daesh and other terrorist organisations that the west wholly condemns... until they are fighting the Russians?
Does no one else see recent history repeating itself?