2015 UK Politics Megathread

[Frasers]

this is the one forum I've visited that isn't full of trolls, idiots, and people suffering either from insanity, extremism, or insane cognitive dissonance.

are we browsing different forums or something

[Steamtopia]

What time will the results be in?

Not British, but I've been told around 3:30 am British time Friday morning. I live in MST, which means that I'll hear of the results by 8:00 tomorrow.

Well, it depends. It can vary. First constituency results are usually in within an hour. But all the results could take up to 8 or so hours. Even then, a coalition could take days.

[Steamtopia]

well i voted lib dem, not clegg specifically

Right, but I have reason to suspect that most LibDem voters in 2010 voted for the party because of the short lived Cleggmania.

As nice as Clegg is, the Lib Dems were popular long before he was around.

[Steamtopia]

Who will get most votes?

In terms of popular vote, it seems like it could go either way. Some polls lean Tory, some lean Labour.

[Steamtopia]

It seems the silent majority have different opinions than most post on this thread suggests, and tomorrow the silent majority will not be silent anymore. If NSG could only be a constituency for the British parliament... ah.

The silent majority isn't British. UKIP is polling in the low teens in reality.

[Steamtopia]

The silent majority in the UK are literally silent. Most people don't vote.

Er, no. 2010 election had a turnout of over 65%.

[Die Volkstaat]

this is the one forum I've visited that isn't full of trolls, idiots, and people suffering either from insanity, extremism, or insane cognitive dissonance.

are we browsing different forums or something

No. Perhaps we have different experiences. In my opinion, this is the most civil forum I've visited, though it's far from perfect. So, perhaps you're just accustomed to what you perceive to be as trolls, idiots, and hypocrites on this forum.

[Steamtopia]

The silent majority in the UK are literally silent. Most people don't vote.

Actually the turnouts during the generals elections are usually high.

My personall wish is that the LibDems disapear from the parliament completely, UKIP becomes 10 or more seats and eventually a UKIP-Torry coalition formed in order to force an EU referendum.

Literally zero percent chance of that happening. Lib Dems will hold 25-30 seats, UKIP will win three at most, and a UKIP-Tory coalition wouldn't even be able to form a minority government.

[Steamtopia]

LOL Tories on the same as Green. Take that Cameron

Not in the real world.

[Die Volkstaat]

Actually the turnouts during the generals elections are usually high.

My personall wish is that the LibDems disapear from the parliament completely, UKIP becomes 10 or more seats and eventually a UKIP-Torry coalition formed in order to force an EU referendum.

Literally zero percent chance of that happening. Lib Dems will hold 25-30 seats, UKIP will win three at most, and a UKIP-Tory coalition wouldn't even be able to form a minority government.

That's his personal wish. And, what seats do you think the LibDems will hold onto that will give them up to 30 seat? It seems so...unlikely.

I'd give the LibDems 15-20, with 20 being the maximum. As for the UKIP, I imagine they'll hold onto Clacton, maybe take Thurrock, maybe take Rochester, and there is a super slim possibility that they'll take something else. So, three seats, maybe two, sounds right.

[Steamtopia]

For those curious, here are the final polls.

BMG: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LIBDEM 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%
TNS: CON 33%, LAB 32%, LIBDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%
Opinium: CON 35%, LAB 34%, LIBDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 6%
ICM: CON 35%, LAB 35%, LIBDEM 9%, UKIP 11%, GRN 3%
Panelbase: CON 31%, LAB 33%, LIBDEM 8%, UKIP 16%, GRN 5%
YouGov: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LIBDEM 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%
Survation: CON 31.4%, LAB 31.4%, LIBDEM 9.6%, UKIP 15.7%, GRN 4.8%
ComRes: CON 35%, LAB 34%, LIBDEM 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%

And for those interested in Scotland and Wales:
YouGov Scotland: CON 14%, LAB 28%, LIBDEM 7%, SNP 48%
YouGov Wales: CON 25%, LAB 39%, LIBDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, PLAID 13%

[Steamtopia]

Literally zero percent chance of that happening. Lib Dems will hold 25-30 seats, UKIP will win three at most, and a UKIP-Tory coalition wouldn't even be able to form a minority government.

That's his personal wish. And, what seats do you think the LibDems will hold onto that will give them up to 30 seat? It seems so...unlikely.

I'd give the LibDems 15-20, with 20 being the maximum. As for the UKIP, I imagine they'll hold onto Clacton, maybe take Thurrock, maybe take Rochester, and there is a super slim possibility that they'll take something else. So, three seats, maybe two, sounds right.

It's not very unlikely. Lib Dem seats are usually Lib Dem strongholds from the very start. The rest of their votes are spread out equally.

[Parti Ouvrier]

Would actually explain a few things.

Come to think of it, Nick Clegg is the only party leader with an archaeology degree...

Social anthropology.
http://www.lrb.co.uk/blog/2010/04/10/jo ... eadership/

[Die Volkstaat]

That's his personal wish. And, what seats do you think the LibDems will hold onto that will give them up to 30 seat? It seems so...unlikely.

I'd give the LibDems 15-20, with 20 being the maximum. As for the UKIP, I imagine they'll hold onto Clacton, maybe take Thurrock, maybe take Rochester, and there is a super slim possibility that they'll take something else. So, three seats, maybe two, sounds right.

It's not very unlikely. Lib Dem seats are usually Lib Dem strongholds from the very start. The rest of their votes are spread out equally.

They could lose a few former strongholds, as well as many seats they barely held onto in 2005 and 2010. I'm not underestimating them, like some here, but I expect them to lose half of their seats.

[Steamtopia]

For those curious, here are the final polls.

BMG: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LIBDEM 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%
TNS: CON 33%, LAB 32%, LIBDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%
Opinium: CON 35%, LAB 34%, LIBDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 6%
ICM: CON 35%, LAB 35%, LIBDEM 9%, UKIP 11%, GRN 3%
Panelbase: CON 31%, LAB 33%, LIBDEM 8%, UKIP 16%, GRN 5%
YouGov: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LIBDEM 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%
Survation: CON 31.4%, LAB 31.4%, LIBDEM 9.6%, UKIP 15.7%, GRN 4.8%
ComRes: CON 35%, LAB 34%, LIBDEM 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%

And for those interested in Scotland and Wales:
YouGov Scotland: CON 14%, LAB 28%, LIBDEM 7%, SNP 48%
YouGov Wales: CON 25%, LAB 39%, LIBDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, PLAID 13%

For those who can't be bothered to look through the numbers, the polls for the UK suggest the following on average:
Tories: 33-35%
Labour: 33-35%
Lib Dem: 8-10%
UKIP: 11-14%
Green: 4-6%

[Parti Ouvrier]

For those curious, here are the final polls.

BMG: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LIBDEM 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%
TNS: CON 33%, LAB 32%, LIBDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%
Opinium: CON 35%, LAB 34%, LIBDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 6%
ICM: CON 35%, LAB 35%, LIBDEM 9%, UKIP 11%, GRN 3%
Panelbase: CON 31%, LAB 33%, LIBDEM 8%, UKIP 16%, GRN 5%
YouGov: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LIBDEM 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%
Survation: CON 31.4%, LAB 31.4%, LIBDEM 9.6%, UKIP 15.7%, GRN 4.8%
ComRes: CON 35%, LAB 34%, LIBDEM 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%

And for those interested in Scotland and Wales:
YouGov Scotland: CON 14%, LAB 28%, LIBDEM 7%, SNP 48%
YouGov Wales: CON 25%, LAB 39%, LIBDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, PLAID 13%

Nate Silver's website has these predictions:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives ... edictions/
You can also hover over your own constituency.

[Atlanticatia]

For those curious, here are the final polls.

BMG: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LIBDEM 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%
TNS: CON 33%, LAB 32%, LIBDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%
Opinium: CON 35%, LAB 34%, LIBDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 6%
ICM: CON 35%, LAB 35%, LIBDEM 9%, UKIP 11%, GRN 3%
Panelbase: CON 31%, LAB 33%, LIBDEM 8%, UKIP 16%, GRN 5%
YouGov: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LIBDEM 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%
Survation: CON 31.4%, LAB 31.4%, LIBDEM 9.6%, UKIP 15.7%, GRN 4.8%
ComRes: CON 35%, LAB 34%, LIBDEM 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%

And for those interested in Scotland and Wales:
YouGov Scotland: CON 14%, LAB 28%, LIBDEM 7%, SNP 48%
YouGov Wales: CON 25%, LAB 39%, LIBDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, PLAID 13%

Final averages:
CON 33.55%
LAB 33.4%

It could really go either way, especially when you consider margin of error.

[Steamtopia]

It's not very unlikely. Lib Dem seats are usually Lib Dem strongholds from the very start. The rest of their votes are spread out equally.

They could lose a few former strongholds, as well as many seats they barely held onto in 2005 and 2010. I'm not underestimating them, like some here, but I expect them to lose half of their seats.

Half is about right. I estimate the higher range of half because of possible tactical Tory voters.

[Steamtopia]

For those curious, here are the final polls.

BMG: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LIBDEM 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%
TNS: CON 33%, LAB 32%, LIBDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%
Opinium: CON 35%, LAB 34%, LIBDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 6%
ICM: CON 35%, LAB 35%, LIBDEM 9%, UKIP 11%, GRN 3%
Panelbase: CON 31%, LAB 33%, LIBDEM 8%, UKIP 16%, GRN 5%
YouGov: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LIBDEM 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%
Survation: CON 31.4%, LAB 31.4%, LIBDEM 9.6%, UKIP 15.7%, GRN 4.8%
ComRes: CON 35%, LAB 34%, LIBDEM 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%

And for those interested in Scotland and Wales:
YouGov Scotland: CON 14%, LAB 28%, LIBDEM 7%, SNP 48%
YouGov Wales: CON 25%, LAB 39%, LIBDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, PLAID 13%

Nate Silver's website has these predictions:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives ... edictions/
You can also hover over your own constituency.

56% Tory in my constituency. To nobody's surprise.

[Parti Ouvrier]

Nate Silver's website has these predictions:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives ... edictions/
You can also hover over your own constituency.

56% Tory in my constituency. To nobody's surprise.

Safe seats make the candidate's/MP or incumbents complacent imo.

[Die Volkstaat]

For those curious, here are the final polls.

BMG: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LIBDEM 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%
TNS: CON 33%, LAB 32%, LIBDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%
Opinium: CON 35%, LAB 34%, LIBDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 6%
ICM: CON 35%, LAB 35%, LIBDEM 9%, UKIP 11%, GRN 3%
Panelbase: CON 31%, LAB 33%, LIBDEM 8%, UKIP 16%, GRN 5%
YouGov: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LIBDEM 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%
Survation: CON 31.4%, LAB 31.4%, LIBDEM 9.6%, UKIP 15.7%, GRN 4.8%
ComRes: CON 35%, LAB 34%, LIBDEM 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%

And for those interested in Scotland and Wales:
YouGov Scotland: CON 14%, LAB 28%, LIBDEM 7%, SNP 48%
YouGov Wales: CON 25%, LAB 39%, LIBDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, PLAID 13%

Final averages:
CON 33.55%
LAB 33.4%

It could really go either way, especially when you consider margin of error.

Well, yes, but if the election is this close, Labour will probably have more seats than the Tories, albeit only by a few seats. Now, I don't think the election will be 33-33, but rather 34.5% to 32.5% or so, with the Tories beating Labour by one or two points.

I keep making predictions, but given the exit polls, this is it, no joke, my predictions.

Tories: 277
Labour: 272
LibDems: 20
Greens: 1
UKIP: 2-3

Scotland

SNP: 52

Wales

Plaid: 3-4

Also, I loled when I saw this map. Why? Just look at Scotland, it's more yellow than a bright taxi cab.

http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/graph ... winner.svg

[Steamtopia]

56% Tory in my constituency. To nobody's surprise.

Safe seats make the candidate's/MP or incumbents complacent imo.

Well, I'll be adding my vote to the pile either way. I don't get to whine about how the elections if I don't participate.

[Confederate Ramenia]

Vote UKIP because you can't barrage the Farage. No I don't live in UK.

[Steamtopia]

Final averages:
CON 33.55%
LAB 33.4%

It could really go either way, especially when you consider margin of error.

Well, yes, but if the election is this close, Labour will probably have more seats than the Tories, albeit only by a few seats. Now, I don't think the election will be 33-33, but rather 34.5% to 32.5% or so, with the Tories beating Labour by one or two points.

I keep making predictions, but given the exit polls, this is it, no joke, my predictions.

Tories: 277
Labour: 272
LibDems: 20
Greens: 1
UKIP: 2-3

Scotland

SNP: 52

Wales

Plaid: 3-4

Also, I loled when I saw this map. Why? Just look at Scotland, it's more yellow than a bright taxi cab.

http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/graph ... winner.svg

Welcome to Scotland: One True Party edition.

[Steamtopia]

Vote UKIP because you can't barrage the Farage. No I don't live in UK.

No.