Indian Politics Thread: Kejriwal Arrested!

[Wallingtonshire]

Seeing the lack of Indian NSers discussing our country here, I have decided to start this thread. Although made on the eve of the '23 state elections, this is for general discussion on Indian politics, ranging from state and municipal issues all the way to national matters such as reservation and caste censuses, Hindutva and Ram Mandir and Modi's 2024 re-election bid vs the I.N.D.I.A. alliance challenge.

Please observe forum rules and decorum while participating here. If you see someone breaking the rules here, please report it to Moderation.

Also please be civil, our country does have a myriad of political opinions but at the end of the day, we're the same country, and see the NSer with a different ideology as not an enemy, but a fellow countryman with unique views .

[Shrillland]

Seeing the lack of Indian NSers discussing our country here, I have decided to start this thread. Although made on the eve of the '23 state elections, this is for general discussion on Indian politics, ranging from state and municipal issues all the way to national matters such as reservation and caste censuses, Hindutva and Ram Mandir and Modi's 2024 re-election bid vs the I.N.D.I.A. alliance challenge.

Please observe forum rules and decorum while participating here. If you see someone breaking the rules here, please report it to Moderation.

Also please be civil, our country does have a myriad of political opinions but at the end of the day, we're the same country, and see the NSer with a different ideology as not an enemy, but a fellow countryman with unique views .

Alas, the lack of Indian NSers, on top of the lack of us outsiders knowing much about the more intricate issues day-to-day is to blame for several attempts at an Indian thread fading out.

That said, it's not looking good for the INDIA alliance given BJP's win in Rajasthan. At least they won't have to worry about the count in Mizoram tomorrow, BJP only stood for half the seats up there.

[Wallingtonshire]

That said, it's not looking good for the INDIA alliance given BJP's win in Rajasthan.

Unironically, for many of the INDIA alliance partners, yesterday was too a day of celebration. To explain briefly, INDIA alliance partners aren't pretty likeminded, and many of them have differences on multiple issues, with the only common uniting platform being their disdain for the government.

Exit polls and surveys had actually predicted Congress defeating BJP 3-1, and as it is by miles the largest party in the INDIA alliance, many junior and regional parties feared that a Congress win would give it leverage to enable it to contest on more electoral constituencies, leaving fewer for the regional and smaller parties to contest on and win in the 2024 parliamentary elections.

However, now that the Congress has had an unexpected defeat, the other state-based and regional parties who are a part of the INDIA alliance, such as the TMC in West Bengal, the AAP in Delhi and Punjab, and the SP in Uttar Pradesh, which sends 80/543 parliamentarians, will be able to pressurize Congress in getting more constituencies for them to contest on, where they'll basically say, "Look, you have lost terribly in 1 v 1 state contests against the BJP, while we have a greater chance, so we should contest on more constituencies" (especially the TMC, which 2 years ago defied polls by crushing the BJP in state elections).

This is why I believe that it's actually a good day for some of the INDIA alliance partners, although I'm glad to see that many foreigners have a key interest in Indian politics.

[Wallingtonshire]

Alas, the lack of Indian NSers

The few of us here take weird forms online, like me as a white chauvinist British colony

[Wallingtonshire]

Past Polls:

Will the BJP under Modi manage to win the 2024 elections and make a hat-trick?
Yes- 57%
Mostly- 29%
Maybe- 14%
Other options (including No)- 0%

What do you think is the main factor behind BJP's unexpected win over INC in recent state elections?
Narendra Modi's popularity- 43%
Hindutva- 29%
Rebels from either parties- 14%
Economy- 14%

[Wallingtonshire]

And our first poll results are out!
On the question as to what was the main factor behind BJP's unexpected 3-1 win over the Congress, the responses were:
1. 43%- Modi's popularity
2. 29%- Hindutva
3. 14%- Economy
4. 14%- Rebels from either party

Now vote on our second poll! Will Modi win the 2024 elections and score a hat-trick, or will the INDIA alliance ruin his plans and oust him from power?

[Wallingtonshire]

6th December

Today stands as a red-letter day in Indian history as it marks 2 fundamental events:
1) The death of Dr. Babasaheb Ambedkar in 1956, independent India's first law minister, the tallest political leader of the Dalits and considered by many as the Father of the Constitution, whose legacy today is claimed by most political parties across the spectrum, including the two national parties, BJP and Congress, and no party today dares to oppose him or his legacy due to the fundamental impact he has had on Indian politics.

2) The demolition of the Babri Mosque/liberation of Shri Ram Janmabhoomi (birthplace of Lord Rama) in 1992, when Hindu nationalist activists from the BJP, RSS, VHP and even regional parties such as Shiv Sena broke the curfew in the holy Hindu city of Ayodhya, captured the 450+ year old Babri Mosque and demolished its domes. This is of course the famous Ram Temple dispute, where it has been claimed and proven in court as well as by archaeological surveys that a temple marking the birthplace of the Hindu God Shri Ram existed at the spot before it was demolished by a Mughal Emperor Babur, where he commissioned the Babri Mosque.

The fall of the Babri Mosque fundamentally transformed Indian politics, as the BJP was now firmly established as the sole nationwide Hindutva party, with the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and to some extent, the Shiromani Akali Dal in Punjab as its regional Hindutva allies (although the Akalis are much more of a Sikh party). At the time, the central government under Congress dismissed BJP governments in Uttar Pradesh (where the Mosque was located), Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Himachal Pradesh. The demolition also led to court cases and litigations for a long time, till 2019, when the Supreme Court ruled that the entire land would be given for the construction of a Ram Temple, while a separate land was to be allotted for the reconstruction of another Babri Mosque.

[Perikuresu]

That said, it's not looking good for the INDIA alliance given BJP's win in Rajasthan. At least they won't have to worry about the count in Mizoram tomorrow, BJP only stood for half the seats up there.

It wasn't the INC's loss of Rajasthan that was the bad bit, it's been foreshadowed with opinion polling for months and Rajasthan has a tendency for flip flopping btw BJP and INC (well it's just BJP and one guy lol) every state election.

What truly was surprising was the INC losing Chhattisgarh, every opinion poll for Chhattisgarh's election showed INC winning with a slim majority + the INC Chief Minister for Chhattisgarh was very popular. It makes me wonder what did the INC did to lose Chhattisgarh.

[Wallingtonshire]

It wasn't the INC's loss of Rajasthan that was the bad bit, it's been foreshadowed with opinion polling for months and Rajasthan has a tendency for flip flopping btw BJP and INC (well it's just BJP and one guy lol) every state election.

What truly was surprising was the INC losing Chhattisgarh, every opinion poll for Chhattisgarh's election showed INC winning with a slim majority + the INC Chief Minister for Chhattisgarh was very popular. It makes me wonder what did the INC did to lose Chhattisgarh.

I mean, ya there was a revolving door tradition, but it had become pretty tight in recent months with the most accurate exit poll which has a 94% success rate showed the Congress ahead.

In Chhattisgarh, actually even BJP leaders themselves did not expect this win, with most party leaders privately believing that they would at best fall short of majority by 2-3 seats. Even the Chief Minister, Bhupesh Baghel, was indeed pretty popular and well-respected, but what happened was that last time, Congress v. BJP was 43% v. 33% votes. This time, BJP v. Congress was 46% v. 42%. So, while Congress largely had the same votes, with just a 1% shift to BJP, the other 12% vote shift to BJP came from others. One of the main ones is the Janata Congress-Chhattisgarh (JCC), a political outfit founded by Congress rebels. In 2018, it had received 7.6% votes, but this time, it only got 1.2% votes. So, the anti-Congress votes shifted away to the BJP thinking it's their best chance, which is probably why they got a 13% gain in votes.

[Wallingtonshire]

And our second poll results our out!

With the question being on Can the BJP under Modi win a third consecutive election in 2024:
Yes- 57%
Mostly- 29%
Maybe- 14%

With 0 people saying No or Mostly Not

Vote on our third poll, on who should be the Opposition I.N.D.I.A. alliance's Prime Ministerial candidate?

[Galactic Powers]

If we’re talking general Indian politics here, what do we all make of the amount of wanted Indian terrorists getting taken out in the past year or so? Not just the Khalistanis in the west, but Adnan Ahmed recently got killed in Pakistan.

I feel as if the R&AW is getting more confident in their free license to do whatever they want with the west afraid to anger India these days

[Shrillland]

If we’re talking general Indian politics here, what do we all make of the amount of wanted Indian terrorists getting taken out in the past year or so? Not just the Khalistanis in the west, but Adnan Ahmed recently got killed in Pakistan.

I feel as if the R&AW is getting more confident in their free license to do whatever they want with the west afraid to anger India these days

Well, it does show that India's reach is getting longer. They're not quite CIA/Guoanbu yet, but they're getting there.

[Wallingtonshire]

If we’re talking general Indian politics here, what do we all make of the amount of wanted Indian terrorists getting taken out in the past year or so? Not just the Khalistanis in the west, but Adnan Ahmed recently got killed in Pakistan.

I feel as if the R&AW is getting more confident in their free license to do whatever they want with the west afraid to anger India these days

I agree, especially it's a growing trend in Pakistan, where I recall even in October-November a lot of terrorists were getting killed over there as well.

It's quite an achievement for R&AW, which has taken a long time to recover ever since Prime Minister Gujral in 1997 had managed to almost demolish the agency

[Wallingtonshire]

It's official: the BJP leadership has announced Vishnu Deo Sai, ex-Union Minister, ex-President of the BJP Chhattisgarh unit and Member of Parliament from Chhattisgarh's Raigarh constituency as the next Chief Minister of the state.
If you recall, the BJP had unexpectedly managed to win Chhattisgarh with a landslide majority, and before the 2018 elections, had Raman Singh, a non-tribal, as the Chief Minister of this tribal-dominated state. This time they have gotten a tribal man to lead this state, which I think is primarily because this time, a swing of tribal voters in southern Chhattisgarh from Congress to BJP was key in their huge victory.

Interestingly, Raman Singh, who as mentioned above had led the BJP government in Chhattisgarh for 15 years (2003-2018) out of the state's 23-year history, has been named as Speaker of the Chhattisgarh Legislative Assembly, which unlike in the U.S. is largely a ceremonial post in India given to senior political leaders who were contenders for leadership.

VD Sai is also going to have 2 deputy CMs, Arun Sao, the current President of the BJP Chhattisgarh unit, and Vijay Sharma, ex-President of the BJP's youth wing in Chhattisgarh. However, Narayan Chandel, the BJP's leader of opposition in the previous legislative assembly, has lost out on getting any premier post in the new government.

Any thoughts?

[Wallingtonshire]

And after Chhattisgarh, today it's the big Indian state of Madhya Pradesh: the BJP has officially announced Mohan Yadav, a three-time legislator and state minister for higher education, as the Chief Minister of this state, replacing their current leader in the state, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, MP's longest serving CM (2005-2018, 2020-2023)

This came as a surprise as although many news outlets had speculated that Chouhan was on his way out, Yadav's name did not appear at all in the list of contenders. Of the four main contenders (Jyotiraditya Scindia, Prahlad Singh Patel, Kailash Vijayavargiya, Narendra Singh Tomar), 3 did not get any place in the new government, while 1, Tomar, the current Union Minister for Agriculture, was announced as the Speaker of the Madhya Pradesh Assembly, which, as I mentioned yesterday, is largely a ceremonial post given to senior leaders in India.

Yadav comes from the OBC (Other Backward Class) category, unlike the tribal CM of Chhattisgarh, and he, like in Chhattisgarh, has two deputy CMs: Jagdish Devda, the state finance minister in Chouhan's outgoing government, and Rajendra Shukla, a 5-time legislator in the Assembly.

All of this is once again being called as a part of the BJP's "generational change", to give younger leaders experience. However, this is strange as Chouhan had a great deal to play in the landslide victory of the BJP in the state elections, and to replace him as Chief Minister will raise some eyebrows, to say the least.

[Wallingtonshire]

And with that, our third poll results are out:
The question asked was, "Who should be the PM candidate from the Opposition alliance for 2024?", with voters being able to select as many as 3 options.
The results were:
Rahul Gandhi (INC MP, PM candidate in '14 & '19)- 40%
No candidate- 40%
Mallikarjun Kharge (President of INC)- 20%

Our fourth poll is on the Supreme Court's judgement released today regarding the Modi government's abrogation of Articles 370 and 35(a), which ended Jammu and Kashmir's special status. The judgement upheld this abrogation and while it called for restoring Jammu and Kashmir's statehood, provided no definite timeline for it, instead giving a deadline of September 2024 for elections in Jammu and Kashmir. Vote on this poll!

[Perikuresu]

And with that, our third poll results are out:
The question asked was, "Who should be the PM candidate from the Opposition alliance for 2024?", with voters being able to select as many as 3 options.
The results were:
Rahul Gandhi (INC MP, PM candidate in '14 & '19)- 40%
No candidate- 40%
Mallikarjun Kharge (President of INC)- 20%

Our fourth poll is on the Supreme Court's judgement released today regarding the Modi government's abrogation of Articles 370 and 35(a), which ended Jammu and Kashmir's special status. The judgement upheld this abrogation and while it called for restoring Jammu and Kashmir's statehood, provided no definite timeline for it, instead giving a deadline of September 2024 for elections in Jammu and Kashmir. Vote on this poll!

Does this Kashmir statehood also apply to Ladakh?

Also isn't Rahul Gandhi in jail over """"defamation""""", also I think INDIA might need a better candidate for PM considering Kharge doesn't seem to capture the hearts of people and Rahul has lost an election to the BJP in a landslide + is in jail

[Wallingtonshire]

Does this Kashmir statehood also apply to Ladakh?

Nope, Ladakhi people as far as I know had always been agitating for a UT status, and this statehood framework applies for J&K only, although there has been no definite timeline, just an assurance of "as soon as possible"

Also isn't Rahul Gandhi in jail over """"defamation"""""

He is out on bail I believe, as the sentence has been suspended by a court

, also I think INDIA might need a better candidate for PM considering Kharge doesn't seem to capture the hearts of people and Rahul has lost an election to the BJP in a landslide + is in jail

The thing is, Kharge, I believe, is a good post-poll candidate if the INDI alliance manages to win the elections. This is because while regional party leaders from North and East India would try to portray themselves as PM candidates, however Kharge, being a southerner and not a strong, charismatic personality, will work to his advantage as regional leaders would prefer to have him as a consensus candidate over say, a Rahul Gandhi or a Mamata Banerjee or Arvind Kejriwal.

[Wallingtonshire]

After Chhattisgarh and MP, yesterday, the BJP announced Bhajanlal Sharma, a first-time legislator, as their next Chief Minister for Rajasthan. Like MP, this too was quite a surprise, as all the favourites who had been speculated have lost out here as well. The main contender was Vasundhara Raje Scindia, a royal from the Scindia dynasty of Madhya Pradesh (as a matter of fact, his nephew, Jyotiraditya Scindia, had also been a strong contender for CM of Madhya Pradesh, but lost out) who had been CM of Rajasthan from 2003-08 and again from 2013-18.

Other candidates included Mahant Balaknath, a Hindu religious leader, the 8th Mahant or spiritual leader of the Nath sect as well as a Member of Parliament, Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, the Union Minister of Water Resources, CP Joshi, the BJP Rajasthan unit President, Rajendra Singh Rathore, the Leader of the Opposition in the previous Rajasthan Assembly, and Diya Kumari, another royal who is the titular Queen (by birth and not marriage) of Jaipur, the capital of Rajasthan, as well as a Member of Parliament.

Like Chhattisgarh and MP, the BJP here too has announced two deputy CMs- Diya Kumari, whose profile has been given above, and Prem Chand Bairwa, a two-time legislator. While in Chhattisgarh, the CM was from a tribal community, and in MP, the CM was from the OBC category, Bhajanlal Sharma is from the Brahmin community, who as you all know are upper caste. This, experts say, is a ploy by BJP to ensure equal caste distribution, with one upper caste, one middle-backward caste, and one extremely backward caste (tribal).

[Shrillland]

After Chhattisgarh and MP, yesterday, the BJP announced Bhajanlal Sharma, a first-time legislator, as their next Chief Minister for Rajasthan. Like MP, this too was quite a surprise, as all the favourites who had been speculated have lost out here as well. The main contender was Vasundhara Raje Scindia, a royal from the Scindia dynasty of Madhya Pradesh (as a matter of fact, his nephew, Jyotiraditya Scindia, had also been a strong contender for CM of Madhya Pradesh, but lost out) who had been CM of Rajasthan from 2003-08 and again from 2013-18.

Other candidates included Mahant Balaknath, a Hindu religious leader, the 8th Mahant or spiritual leader of the Nath sect as well as a Member of Parliament, Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, the Union Minister of Water Resources, CP Joshi, the BJP Rajasthan unit President, Rajendra Singh Rathore, the Leader of the Opposition in the previous Rajasthan Assembly, and Diya Kumari, another royal who is the titular Queen (by birth and not marriage) of Jaipur, the capital of Rajasthan, as well as a Member of Parliament.

Like Chhattisgarh and MP, the BJP here too has announced two deputy CMs- Diya Kumari, whose profile has been given above, and Prem Chand Bairwa, a two-time legislator. While in Chhattisgarh, the CM was from a tribal community, and in MP, the CM was from the OBC category, Bhajanlal Sharma is from the Brahmin community, who as you all know are upper caste. This, experts say, is a ploy by BJP to ensure equal caste distribution, with one upper caste, one middle-backward caste, and one extremely backward caste (tribal).

I don't know if ploy is necessary the right word for equal representation of castes....Still, choosing a first-termer to be Chief Minister? Always a risky bet.

[Perikuresu]

I don't know if ploy is necessary the right word for equal representation of castes....Still, choosing a first-termer to be Chief Minister? Always a risky bet.

Tbf, might as well take risks and try a new person for the top job if ur just gonna lose Rajasthan to the same guy in the next elections.

[Wallingtonshire]

Tbf, might as well take risks and try a new person for the top job if ur just gonna lose Rajasthan to the same guy in the next elections.

Also, they are trying to entirely remove the old guard and replace it with a new one, which they have done in the two other states as well. Although it may seem that this tradition of voting out the incumbent government won't end, the BJP hopes that with good governance and the Prime Minister's popularity, they can try to reverse this trend and get a government re-elected. In the state of Uttarakhand in 2021, which too has this tradition, the BJP replaced their Chief Minister twice in the same year whereas elections were in early 2022. Ultimately, this trend was ended as the BJP government was re-elected.

However, in the neighbouring state of HP, where too there was a BJP government, despite rumours, the BJP did not replace the Chief Minister and fought the elections under him in late 2022. Congress won that state, winning 40/68 seats vs the BJP's 25. Even in Karnataka, which went to polls soon after in early 2023, the BJP did not replace a Chief Minister who although was relatively new, was still unpopular. The result: BJP lost it badly to the Congress, winning half the Congress' seat tally.

If anything, the BJP has learnt its lessons. The other thing is that the old guard in these three states, namely Shivraj Singh Chouhan, CM of Madhya Pradesh (2005-18; 2020-23), Vasundhara Raje, CM of Rajasthan (2003-08; 2013-18) and Raman Singh, CM of Chhattisgarh (2003-18), all 3 of them were products of a previous generation of BJP leadership, and were brought into politics and raised into power by a previous generation of the BJP leadership of AB Vajpayee, PM of India (1996; 1998-2004) and LK Advani, Deputy PM (2002-04), Home Minister (1998-04), BJP President (1986-91; 1993-98; 2004-05) and BJP's PM candidate for 2009. The current BJP leadership of Narendra Modi, Prime Minister (2014-present) and Amit Shah, BJP President (2014-19) and Home Minister of India (2019-present) are products of this previous generation as well, which means that this duo was a direct rival and competitor with the old guard.

In fact, for those who didn't know, before the 2014 Indian general elections, there was huge debate in 2011-2013 on who should be the BJP's PM candidate as the party had been twice defeated when they expected to win. Advani tried becoming the PM candidate again, but as he was a losing face, many people, especially the more rightwing ones in the BJP, saw Modi, then the CM of Gujarat, as the candidate. The anti-Modi faction didn't feel he would be secular and was very strong in the states of Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. initially backed Advani, and later along with Advani backed Chouhan to become the BJP's PM candidate. However, Chouhan sensed defeat in 2013, and hence to present a united front for the party, backed Modi for PM.

It may be a small incident now as Modi has a dominant hold over the BJP, but it clearly shows how once upon a time, these CMs were equals of the new Modi-Shah BJP leadership, and there was always a certain bit of discomfort. Although Raje and Singh never became important after 2018, Chouhan became CM again in 2020, and his removal is significant as now every single BJP CM is a product of the new BJP leadership since 2014.

[Perikuresu]

Aight so apparently a lot of opposition MP (mainly from I.N.D.I.A alliance) from Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha (r have been suspended from this winter's parliament session over indecent behavior after they started calling for government accountability due to a security breach in Parliament earlier this week.

iirc around 33 Lok Sabha members and 45 Rajya Sabha members have been suspended.

[Shrillland]

INC launching fundraising drive in advance of next year's vote

[Galactic Powers]

Aight so apparently a lot of opposition MP (mainly from I.N.D.I.A alliance) from Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha (r have been suspended from this winter's parliament session over indecent behavior after they started calling for government accountability due to a security breach in Parliament earlier this week.

iirc around 33 Lok Sabha members and 45 Rajya Sabha members have been suspended.

Has it even become clear what that break-in was about? As far as I can tell, its just some disgruntled workers and its not related to anything bigger.