Canadian Politics

[ARIsyan-]

Charlie Angus and Carol Hughes are not seeking re election, and as the only NDP members from Northern Ontario they've basically put the final nail in the coffin of the NDP's traditional support base in that region. The 2022 provincial election saw the NDP lose the popular vote share in NO for the first time in a decade or two and that trend is going to now continue with the federal NDP, which is traditionally weaker in that region to begin with. Timmins and Algoma are 100% going the tories, especially now that Algoma is merged with Sault Ste. Marie and Timmins was redistributed. The NDP is also even at risk of losing their seat in London, along with being wiped out of Vancouver Island and Rural BC. And what does the NDP leadership come up with to combat this? An official NDP discord!!!!!!

At this point the NDP's only hopes is keeping official party status.

I frequently pass through London, and especially London-Fanshawe. The malaise on the ground towards the Liberals and to some extent the NDP is... Significant.

the worst part is that london-fanshawe was redistricted so that's basically given the tories all three of those seats. Hamilton is also going to the tories besides Hamilton Mountain, and the windsor region is going to the Tories but Windsor West is still looking pretty solidly NDP due to Brian Masse's personal popularity. If he was not running for re election the tories would take that too. The only possibility to offset this is in Toronto where the NDP is looking to take some seats from the libs in the downtown, but that would just end up electing some orange liberals who are disconnected from the rest of Canada as are basically all Toronto MPs, so I doubt that would help our standings.

East of Ontario is as usual not looking good, and to the west besides maybe picking up NWT the NDP is at most set to maybe gain a seat in Vancouver (more orange liberals!!!) and lose everything else in BC besides core vancouver metro and victoria, and keep Edmonton Strathcona. This is setting up to be a reverse 1993 at this point.

[Greater Cesnica]

I frequently pass through London, and especially London-Fanshawe. The malaise on the ground towards the Liberals and to some extent the NDP is... Significant.

the worst part is that london-fanshawe was redistricted so that's basically given the tories all three of those seats. Hamilton is also going to the tories besides Hamilton Mountain, and the windsor region is going to the Tories but Windsor West is still looking pretty solidly NDP due to Brian Masse's personal popularity. If he was not running for re election the tories would take that too. The only possibility to offset this is in Toronto where the NDP is looking to take some seats from the libs in the downtown, but that would just end up electing some orange liberals who are disconnected from the rest of Canada as are basically all Toronto MPs, so I doubt that would help our standings.

East of Ontario is as usual not looking good, and to the west besides maybe picking up NWT the NDP is at most set to maybe gain a seat in Vancouver (more orange liberals!!!) and lose everything else in BC besides core vancouver metro and victoria, and keep Edmonton Strathcona. This is setting up to be a reverse 1993 at this point.

The NDP essentially needs an exorcism of its identity politics and reactionary (in the opposite sense to the right wing) based politics. I doubt it'll happen any time soon.

[Shrillland]

The House admonished a private citizen for the first time since 1913: GC Strategies executive Kristian Firth, who's company is believed to have messed up the ArriveCan app, in a peripheral way, during the plague

[Nivosea]

Howdy I recently found this thread after the crash!

I don't read a lot of political threads so I apologize if these are bad questions, what seems to be the general consensus on how Toronto-St. Paul's, LaSalle-Emard-Verdun, and Elmwood-Transcona will vote in their by-elections and how long should it take to get election dates for them?

[Shrillland]

Howdy I recently found this thread after the crash!

I don't read a lot of political threads so I apologize if these are bad questions, what seems to be the general consensus on how Toronto-St. Paul's, LaSalle-Emard-Verdun, and Elmwood-Transcona will vote in their by-elections and how long should it take to get election dates for them?

Alas, as an American, I can't pin down when the date swill be, but I think Lasalle-Emard-Verdun will be first, and I think it'll be a Liberal hold. Toronto-St. Paul's I'm less sure about. I know it's been Liberal for a long time, but there's a blue tide coming next year and the Tories have an outside chance to snag it. As for Elmwood-Transcona, the NDP will easily keep that one.

[Nivosea]

Oh shoot, I forgot about this thread.

Howdy I recently found this thread after the crash!

I don't read a lot of political threads so I apologize if these are bad questions, what seems to be the general consensus on how Toronto-St. Paul's, LaSalle-Emard-Verdun, and Elmwood-Transcona will vote in their by-elections and how long should it take to get election dates for them?

Alas, as an American, I can't pin down when the date swill be, but I think Lasalle-Emard-Verdun will be first, and I think it'll be a Liberal hold. Toronto-St. Paul's I'm less sure about. I know it's been Liberal for a long time, but there's a blue tide coming next year and the Tories have an outside chance to snag it. As for Elmwood-Transcona, the NDP will easily keep that one.

Sounds reasonable, though I don't think it's impossible for Conservatives to pull an upset in Elmwood-Transcona, it's just really really unlikely.

Being Liberal for a long time raises an interesting point in Toronto-St. Paul's. Carolyn Bennett has represented the district for over a quarter of a century, without some of her longtime supporters, the Liberals could easily lose more ground than expected with current polling.

On an somewhat related note, I think the new electoral districts come into effect in a day or two, which if true, these by-elections will be the first to use the new districts!

[Greater Cesnica]

New electoral map of 343 seats is in effect.

Have updated the OP with the latest projection from 338Canada for this new map.

[Nivosea]

It's strange seeing Markham-Thornhill go from 60% to 51% Liberal after being stagnant for pretty much the whole year (unless my screen was just glitched or didn't update the riding). If I'm not mistaken, the new districts 2021 results are similar to the old districts 2021 results.

[Opiachus]

On an somewhat related note, I think the new electoral districts come into effect in a day or two, which if true, these by-elections will be the first to use the new districts!

Not yet. All by-elections for the current parliament will still be on the old districts because the current parliament is constituted under the 2013 Representation Order. The 2023 Representation Order governs parliaments whose constituting general elections are called starting tomorrow (April 23). Here is the information from Elections Canada:

Between general elections, vacant seats in the House of Commons may be filled through by-elections. As part of redistribution, any by-election called before the next general election will take place under the current electoral map (2013 representation order – 338 electoral districts).

The easy way to remember that by-elections still operate under the old districts is to consider what would happen to citizens whose residences changed districts. If by-elections occurred under the new districts, then those citizens would have two representatives at the same time (the MP for the old district and the MP for the new district) which would be unfair to everyone else. It would also be a logical contradiction if an old district was entirely eliminated and absorbed into adjacent districts in the new map and a by-election were held for a vacancy corresponding to that old district, as the old district no longer exists under the new map.

[Almonaster Nuevo]

You could also have citizens becoming completely disenfranchised if they are in part of the old district which is not included in the new boundary.

[Nivosea]

On an somewhat related note, I think the new electoral districts come into effect in a day or two, which if true, these by-elections will be the first to use the new districts!

Not yet. All by-elections for the current parliament will still be on the old districts because the current parliament is constituted under the 2013 Representation Order. The 2023 Representation Order governs parliaments whose constituting general elections are called starting tomorrow (April 23). Here is the information from Elections Canada:

Between general elections, vacant seats in the House of Commons may be filled through by-elections. As part of redistribution, any by-election called before the next general election will take place under the current electoral map (2013 representation order – 338 electoral districts).

The easy way to remember that by-elections still operate under the old districts is to consider what would happen to citizens whose residences changed districts. If by-elections occurred under the new districts, then those citizens would have two representatives at the same time (the MP for the old district and the MP for the new district) which would be unfair to everyone else. It would also be a logical contradiction if an old district was entirely eliminated and absorbed into adjacent districts in the new map and a by-election were held for a vacancy corresponding to that old district, as the old district no longer exists under the new map.

Thank you, you learn something new everyday!

You could also have citizens becoming completely disenfranchised if they are in part of the old district which is not included in the new boundary.

Agreed.

[Shrillland]

Ontario introducing legislation to eliminate doctor's note requirements to use the province's three days guaranteed paid medical leave

[ARIsyan-]

Ontario introducing legislation to eliminate doctor's note requirements to use the province's three days guaranteed paid medical leave

This is a rare W from the Ford government, I wonder why they decided to do this now. Must be due to criticism of their healthcare policy.

Also my predictions for the upcoming by elections: Toronto St-Paul's is a solid liberal, the tories won't be able to take over downtown Toronto no matter what, even in the strongest of blue tides. Lasalle-Emard-Verdun is another solid liberal riding, the libs are lucky these by elections are being held in their core strongholds. Elmwood-Transcona is honestly the only really safe NDP seat at this point so once again the NDP was super lucky that Blaikie was their MP who resigned this term. If it was anywhere else they would have surely lost it.

[Nivosea]

Ontario introducing legislation to eliminate doctor's note requirements to use the province's three days guaranteed paid medical leave

Not a bad idea if I'm understanding this correctly.

Ontario introducing legislation to eliminate doctor's note requirements to use the province's three days guaranteed paid medical leave

This is a rare W from the Ford government, I wonder why they decided to do this now. Must be due to criticism of their healthcare policy.

Also my predictions for the upcoming by elections: Toronto St-Paul's is a solid liberal, the tories won't be able to take over downtown Toronto no matter what, even in the strongest of blue tides. Lasalle-Emard-Verdun is another solid liberal riding, the libs are lucky these by elections are being held in their core strongholds. Elmwood-Transcona is honestly the only really safe NDP seat at this point so once again the NDP was super lucky that Blaikie was their MP who resigned this term. If it was anywhere else they would have surely lost it.

RIP Edmonton Strathcona, Vancouver East, and Hamilton Centre.
I can't really disagree with those predictions, even with a blue wave they are 99% keeps.



In other news, B.C. Conservatives have lead in their very first poll for the next provincial election and B.C. has announced plans to recriminalize the use of drugs in public spaces.

[Greater Cesnica]

Ontario introducing legislation to eliminate doctor's note requirements to use the province's three days guaranteed paid medical leave

Not a bad idea if I'm understanding this correctly.

This is a rare W from the Ford government, I wonder why they decided to do this now. Must be due to criticism of their healthcare policy.

Also my predictions for the upcoming by elections: Toronto St-Paul's is a solid liberal, the tories won't be able to take over downtown Toronto no matter what, even in the strongest of blue tides. Lasalle-Emard-Verdun is another solid liberal riding, the libs are lucky these by elections are being held in their core strongholds. Elmwood-Transcona is honestly the only really safe NDP seat at this point so once again the NDP was super lucky that Blaikie was their MP who resigned this term. If it was anywhere else they would have surely lost it.

RIP Edmonton Strathcona, Vancouver East, and Hamilton Centre.
I can't really disagree with those predictions, even with a blue wave they are 99% keeps.



In other news, B.C. Conservatives have lead in their very first poll for the next provincial election and B.C. has announced plans to recriminalize the use of drugs in public spaces.

Strathcona is winnable for the Tories, but Hamilton Centre and Vancouver East will never go blue.

As for Eby's plea to Ottawa, funny what polling does to someone's principles.

[So uh lab here]

i hope you guys are not as chaotic as murica right now.

[ARIsyan-]

Not a bad idea if I'm understanding this correctly.

RIP Edmonton Strathcona, Vancouver East, and Hamilton Centre.
I can't really disagree with those predictions, even with a blue wave they are 99% keeps.

In other news, B.C. Conservatives have lead in their very first poll for the next provincial election and B.C. has announced plans to recriminalize the use of drugs in public spaces.

Strathcona is winnable for the Tories, but Hamilton Centre and Vancouver East will never go blue.

As for Eby's plea to Ottawa, funny what polling does to someone's principles.

I mean in all honesty do we really want coked up drug addicts hanging out in public spaces? I feel like if someone is that addicted they need to be forcefully sent to a rehabilitation centre. However I'm concerned that this will lead to them ending up in jail, which is not the right place for a hard drug user. However I also doubt that the tories would be able to actually win the election because they won 0 seats in the last eleciton and the conservative vote is split with BCU. If the conservatives win this election I would be absolutely shocked.

[Nivosea]

Not a bad idea if I'm understanding this correctly.

RIP Edmonton Strathcona, Vancouver East, and Hamilton Centre.
I can't really disagree with those predictions, even with a blue wave they are 99% keeps.



In other news, B.C. Conservatives have lead in their very first poll for the next provincial election and B.C. has announced plans to recriminalize the use of drugs in public spaces.

Strathcona is winnable for the Tories, but Hamilton Centre and Vancouver East will never go blue.

As for Eby's plea to Ottawa, funny what polling does to someone's principles.

Maybe if they run a good candidate, but the Conservatives got around 69% of the vote in Alberta and that only brought it down to a 10 point NDP lead, and right now Conservatives are polling at around 62% with a slight NDP gain in votes.

Eby's plea to Ottawa? Did I miss something?

i hope you guys are not as chaotic as murica right now.

Depends on how you define chaotic...

Strathcona is winnable for the Tories, but Hamilton Centre and Vancouver East will never go blue.

As for Eby's plea to Ottawa, funny what polling does to someone's principles.

I mean in all honesty do we really want coked up drug addicts hanging out in public spaces? I feel like if someone is that addicted they need to be forcefully sent to a rehabilitation centre. However I'm concerned that this will lead to them ending up in jail, which is not the right place for a hard drug user. However I also doubt that the tories would be able to actually win the election because they won 0 seats in the last eleciton and the conservative vote is split with BCU. If the conservatives win this election I would be absolutely shocked.

Many wind up in public parks so no, I don't think children should see people taking drugs in public. Or adults, teenagers, and the elderly for that matter.

Even with the Conservative polling win, if I averaged the last five polls correctly, the NDP still has an 8 point lead in them, specifically 40.36% - 32.02%.

[Kubra]

Strathcona is winnable for the Tories, but Hamilton Centre and Vancouver East will never go blue.

As for Eby's plea to Ottawa, funny what polling does to someone's principles.

Strathcona is not winnable by the tories. At all. This is the only place in Alberta where this can be said to be the case.
Like 1 guy period bothers to put out signage for elections. He goes hard, probably because he lives in Strathcona.

[Greater Cesnica]

Greater Vancouver Metro projection this week is absurd:

[ARIsyan-]

Greater Vancouver Metro projection this week is absurd:

(Image)

Jesus Christ those districts look disgusting. The 2015 electoral map will always be my favourite.

Anyways the NDP is absolutely cooked, I'm going to take a big dose of copium and hope 2029 goes our way (it won't it never does being an NDP supporter is like a form of self harm)

[Greater Cesnica]

Greater Vancouver Metro projection this week is absurd:

(Image)

Jesus Christ those districts look disgusting. The 2015 electoral map will always be my favourite.

Anyways the NDP is absolutely cooked, I'm going to take a big dose of copium and hope 2029 goes our way (it won't it never does being an NDP supporter is like a form of self harm)

To be fair they didn't change too much in BC with the new map. But yeah it's over for the NDP.

It's been over since Layton died.

[Nivosea]

Greater Vancouver Metro projection this week is absurd:

(Image)

I saw that while making a shaded map!
Burnaby hasn't gone Conservative in soo long, it would definitely be wild if Conservatives took it next election.

[ARIsyan-]

Jesus Christ those districts look disgusting. The 2015 electoral map will always be my favourite.

Anyways the NDP is absolutely cooked, I'm going to take a big dose of copium and hope 2029 goes our way (it won't it never does being an NDP supporter is like a form of self harm)

To be fair they didn't change too much in BC with the new map. But yeah it's over for the NDP.

It's been over since Layton died.

Even Jagmeet Singh might lose his seat. That would hopefully be an end to the era of "milquetoast centrist progressives" leading the party. Now that Charlie Angus is leaving politics I really have no clue who will replace him. Niki Ashton is a strong contender but her foreign policy views might be an issue, Brian Masse has been around for ages but idk if he wants to assume a leadership role after being an MP for 2 decades.

[Nivosea]

Greater Vancouver Metro projection this week is absurd:

(Image)

Jesus Christ those districts look disgusting. The 2015 electoral map will always be my favourite.

Anyways the NDP is absolutely cooked, I'm going to take a big dose of copium and hope 2029 goes our way (it won't it never does being an NDP supporter is like a form of self harm)

At least it's better looking than the first proposal. Even though most of the mainland looked a little better, the Vancouver Metro Area hurt the eyes.

To be fair they didn't change too much in BC with the new map. But yeah it's over for the NDP.

It's been over since Layton died.

Even Jagmeet Singh might lose his seat. That would hopefully be an end to the era of "milquetoast centrist progressives" leading the party. Now that Charlie Angus is leaving politics I really have no clue who will replace him. Niki Ashton is a strong contender but her foreign policy views might be an issue, Brian Masse has been around for ages but idk if he wants to assume a leadership role after being an MP for 2 decades.

They could have taken advantage of the Liberals low approval ratings had they not done the supply and confidence agreement, and since the election would be early, the Conservatives could be set back a few points.

The more I think about it the less I understand their decision. All of this misfortune for a few policies that will probably get overturned in an inevitable Conservative majority government? I feel bad for the NDP.