Iran War: For the Martyrs of Minab

[Jibjibistan]

Houthis have officially joined the war. They launched a few ballistic missiles at Israel and released a presser saying they're going to be active until the Americans and Israel cease attacking "all resistance fronts", so they want us to back off of Iran, Palestine, Shia forces in Iraq and Lebanon.

I don't think they've launched any attacks into the Red Sea yet, but if they do ramp up with that again... that's bad news for the global economy.

I wonder if the Houthis will launch strikes at Somaliland due to their perceived closeness with Israel, and the fact that there was talk of establishing an Israeli base in Somaliland.

However, it is too early to judge whether the Houthis are really in this war; this could just be a show of force to show their hardline base and the IRGC that they are "doing something," by firing a few rockets as a one-off thing.

[Jibjibistan]

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says the war with Iran will continue for another 2-4 weeks, defying Trump's initial deadline. The US continues to amass troops in the region as Rubio claims serious negotiations will be held soon although he emphasize that because of the assassinations of Iranian officials, other Iranian officials are reluctant to talk out of fear of being killed themselves.

This is why going after the political leadership of a country is idiotic if you hope to negotiate with them eventually.

You don't go after political officials unless you believe that:

1. The collapse of the regime is imminent.

2. You are waging a total war where the end goal is the full subjugation of your enemy.

3. You have a more malleable leader lined up who will likely be the next leader.

I'm inclined to believe it was the first option, and when the Iranian regime didn't instantly collapse, the Trump administration began to panic and look for a way out.

[Myrensis]

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says the war with Iran will continue for another 2-4 weeks, defying Trump's initial deadline. The US continues to amass troops in the region as Rubio claims serious negotiations will be held soon although he emphasize that because of the assassinations of Iranian officials, other Iranian officials are reluctant to talk out of fear of being killed themselves.

This is why going after the political leadership of a country is idiotic if you hope to negotiate with them eventually.

You don't go after political officials unless you believe that:

1. The collapse of the regime is imminent.

2. You are waging a total war where the end goal is the full subjugation of your enemy.

3. You have a more malleable leader lined up who will likely be the next leader.

I'm inclined to believe it was the first option, and when the Iranian regime didn't instantly collapse, the Trump administration began to panic and look for a way out.

It's been pretty clear for weeks now that that was Plan A thru Z: Once the bombing started and Khameini was dead the regime would fold instantly and a new leader would come begging Military Genius and Master Negotiator Trump for a deal... and they haven't had a single fucking clue what to do since that didn't happen.

[I S T O]

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says the war with Iran will continue for another 2-4 weeks, defying Trump's initial deadline. The US continues to amass troops in the region as Rubio claims serious negotiations will be held soon although he emphasize that because of the assassinations of Iranian officials, other Iranian officials are reluctant to talk out of fear of being killed themselves.

This is why going after the political leadership of a country is idiotic if you hope to negotiate with them eventually.

You don't go after political officials unless you believe that:

1. The collapse of the regime is imminent.

2. You are waging a total war where the end goal is the full subjugation of your enemy.

3. You have a more malleable leader lined up who will likely be the next leader.

I'm inclined to believe it was the first option, and when the Iranian regime didn't instantly collapse, the Trump administration began to panic and look for a way out.

I agree with you on that, I think it was partly an underestimation on the IRGC's decentralized nature and partly not realizing people will generally prefer shitty murderous leaders over getting bombed by a foreign power for a month straight.

[Hurtful Thoughts]

They can, landing craft exist for a reason. Unless you believe D-Day was a work of fiction.

D-Day is an exception, not the planned-for norm. Most modern military landings the US plans for, to my knowledge, require a relatively uncontested landing.

Even then, the issue isn't strictly resistance to a landing, it's terrain. The only coastline that the US might be able to use would be along Iran's southern coast west of Pakistan, and there are beaches that might work for landing MEUs, but advancing deeper into the country would require moving along a handful of narrow major roads. It's not an ideal situation, especially when the US Army can't support the marines.

Well, aside from the landings in the pacific in he 40's, but quite a few of those were a shitshow. Points at the need to press a captured german railway-ferry into service on the pacific-theater due to a lack os LSTs in 1942. Operation Karsik was fun like that.

And yeah, having tried RPing an amphibious tank-assault on Iran with North Korean T-62s upgraded by a sympathetic Ukraine (long story, don't ask)... The land is either cliffs, or ridiculously flat beaches with nary a spot of cover for miles.

That said, C-17s and C-130s are rough-field landing capable birds... not sure if it'd still count as an amphibious assault when you're stepping off the ramp of a cargo-plane instead of a boat into a hot LZ, but you pretty much'd have to train like it is one.

[Jenley]

D-Day is an exception, not the planned-for norm. Most modern military landings the US plans for, to my knowledge, require a relatively uncontested landing.

Even then, the issue isn't strictly resistance to a landing, it's terrain. The only coastline that the US might be able to use would be along Iran's southern coast west of Pakistan, and there are beaches that might work for landing MEUs, but advancing deeper into the country would require moving along a handful of narrow major roads. It's not an ideal situation, especially when the US Army can't support the marines.

Well, aside from the landings in the pacific in he 40's, but quite a few of those were a shitshow. Points at the need to press a captured german railway-ferry into service on the pacific-theater due to a lack os LSTs in 1942. Operation Karsik was fun like that.

And yeah, having tried RPing an amphibious tank-assault on Iran with North Korean T-62s upgraded by a sympathetic Ukraine (long story, don't ask)... The land is either cliffs, or ridiculously flat beaches with nary a spot of cover for miles.

I sympathize. Even at the worst moment in Iranian history, Alexander the Great's conquest of Iran was no easy feat. And you tried to pull it off with Soviet tanks.

[Hurtful Thoughts]

Well, aside from the landings in the pacific in he 40's, but quite a few of those were a shitshow. Points at the need to press a captured german railway-ferry into service on the pacific-theater due to a lack os LSTs in 1942. Operation Karsik was fun like that.

And yeah, having tried RPing an amphibious tank-assault on Iran with North Korean T-62s upgraded by a sympathetic Ukraine (long story, don't ask)... The land is either cliffs, or ridiculously flat beaches with nary a spot of cover for miles.

I sympathize. Even at the worst moment in Iranian history, Alexander the Great's conquest of Iran was no easy feat. And you tried to pull it off with Soviet tanks.

Granted, for the RP, we were allowed to upgrade the tanks quite heavily. So quad-rack of ATGMs, an autocannon mounted on top of the gun-mantlet like an angry .50 cal, and a twin AGS-17 for the loader to play with.

Plus FPV drone warfare was nerfed, obviously.

[Humanlonia]

I sympathize. Even at the worst moment in Iranian history, Alexander the Great's conquest of Iran was no easy feat. And you tried to pull it off with Soviet tanks.

Granted, for the RP, we were allowed to upgrade the tanks quite heavily. So quad-rack of ATGMs, an autocannon mounted on top of the gun-mantlet like an angry .50 cal, and a twin AGS-17 for the loader to play with.

Plus FPV drone warfare was nerfed, obviously.

Nerfed? So you fought in the modern era?!

[Washington Resistance Army]

Good amount of footage coming from Lebanon showing Hezbollah striking IDF units using fiber optic drones. These things really are the most dangerous thing on a modern battlefield and it just seems like nobody has a good counter for them yet.

[Somewherica]

Maybe, but it would be exceedingly hard to actually secure the coastline without boots on the ground, and to get boots on the ground before securing the coastline. In an urban occupation scenario, the attacker should generally deploy several times more troops than the defender has stationed. I'm not sure the US has enough Marines or paratroopers to capture a port city, whereas Iran can continue to lob missiles and fling drones at US cargo ships and planes all the while. Even the Kharg Island operation which Trump has been advertising seems a bit iffy, much less landing an invasion force on the mainland.

For perspective I am going to toss this out there.
The 1989 invasion of Panama was globally considered to be the best example of regime change executed by any nation in modern history, never mind the US, and it cost us roughly 75 lives.
Desert Storm was globally considered to be the most brilliant US lead coalition victory ever, and it cost us around 150 KIA times two wounded along with around 75 aircraft.
An entire Air Force wing’s worth.
Compared to those historic water marks the campaign against Iran so far is almost too effective and efficient to be real to many observers as it drives on absent the losses incurred by those campaigns of yesteryear.

Prefaced with that, I would like to stipulate that Marine doctrine, as well as paratrooper doctrine in general is formulated around the full expectation of being outnumbered and surrounded.
We simply think of it as a target rich environment.
However, I am not expecting to see a Normandy styled air drop campaign.
In terms of beaching an expedition force, well, again we are not talking Normandy where the allies hit a fortified coastline that knew exactly what it was in for with the allies themselves having only a vague notion of what they were going to run into.
Especially knowledge of interior lines of reserves and supply that the eras naval artillery and combat air could not damage, or even disrupt effectively.
Nope, Iran has a lot worse than 16 inch shells and 1000 pound bombs to worry about.

First is foreknowledge followed by air superiority that actually means something thanks to ordinance that defies most efforts to dig against it.
The pre-op air blitz will have a mostly complete menu of troop positions and weapon emplacements, and whatever ordinance evades that will only get one shot at the landing after its launch notifies the CAP flying overwatch that they are ready to die now.
Setting all of that aside, bear in mind that we are talking about a paramilitary force designed more around ideology than tactics.
They are not professional grade soldiers, but cadres of stormtroopers more suited to bullying unarmed citizens in the streets than operating on a battlefield where they mostly end up just serving as fertilizer despite their efforts.
Where it will get dirty, as it always does no matter the participants and their level of expertise, is in the urban campaign of advancing one block at a time against a determined defender’s traps, snipers, and attempted ambush.

[Myrensis]

Maybe, but it would be exceedingly hard to actually secure the coastline without boots on the ground, and to get boots on the ground before securing the coastline. In an urban occupation scenario, the attacker should generally deploy several times more troops than the defender has stationed. I'm not sure the US has enough Marines or paratroopers to capture a port city, whereas Iran can continue to lob missiles and fling drones at US cargo ships and planes all the while. Even the Kharg Island operation which Trump has been advertising seems a bit iffy, much less landing an invasion force on the mainland.

For perspective I am going to toss this out there.
The 1989 invasion of Panama was globally considered to be the best example of regime change executed by any nation in modern history, never mind the US, and it cost us roughly 75 lives.
Desert Storm was globally considered to be the most brilliant US lead coalition victory ever, and it cost us around 150 KIA times two wounded along with around 75 aircraft.
An entire Air Force wing’s worth.
Compared to those historic water marks the campaign against Iran so far is almost too effective and efficient to be real to many observers as it drives on absent the losses incurred by those campaigns of yesteryear.

Prefaced with that, I would like to stipulate that Marine doctrine, as well as paratrooper doctrine in general is formulated around the full expectation of being outnumbered and surrounded.
We simply think of it as a target rich environment.
However, I am not expecting to see a Normandy styled air drop campaign.
In terms of beaching an expedition force, well, again we are not talking Normandy where the allies hit a fortified coastline that knew exactly what it was in for with the allies themselves having only a vague notion of what they were going to run into.
Especially knowledge of interior lines of reserves and supply that the eras naval artillery and combat air could not damage, or even disrupt effectively.
Nope, Iran has a lot worse than 16 inch shells and 1000 pound bombs to worry about.

First is foreknowledge followed by air superiority that actually means something thanks to ordinance that defies most efforts to dig against it.
The pre-op air blitz will have a mostly complete menu of troop positions and weapon emplacements, and whatever ordinance evades that will only get one shot at the landing after its launch notifies the CAP flying overwatch that they are ready to die now.
Setting all of that aside, bear in mind that we are talking about a paramilitary force designed more around ideology than tactics.
They are not professional grade soldiers, but cadres of stormtroopers more suited to bullying unarmed citizens in the streets than operating on a battlefield where they mostly end up just serving as fertilizer despite their efforts.
Where it will get dirty, as it always does no matter the participants and their level of expertise, is in the urban campaign of advancing one block at a time against a determined defender’s traps, snipers, and attempted ambush.

Yes...we can jerk off all day to America's military superiority, but that's ignoring the fact that Iran is not going to be looking to defeat America on the battlefield. Their goal will simply be to wait us out while picking off and maiming our soldiers with IED's and ambushes until it's no longer tenable for the Administration to continue wasting blood and treasure on an all ready widely unpopular war with "Trust me bro, this time it will be different! Just 2 5 10 more years!"

Afghanistan is a better comparison than Panama or Iraq...and remind me who is in charge there after 20 years of American military dominance?

[The Lone Alliance]

I agree with you on that, I think it was partly an underestimation on the IRGC's decentralized nature and partly not realizing people will generally prefer shitty murderous leaders over getting bombed by a foreign power for a month straight.

I really think it was more that by the point the attack happened the people had already been beaten into submission. The time to have attacked Iran was back in January when the people were in the streets in numbers that could threaten the Regime, not after tens of thousands of them were shot or beaten into submission and their uprising was effectively put down.

What the US should have done the moment the uprising happened was cancel the entire stupid Maduro op and turn around, but no Trump wanted his photo op. And honestly I believe the entire Venezuela operation also demoralized the Iranian resistance.

After all what did the US do after removing Maduro? They kept the exact same regime in place just made sure it waved American flags instead of Chinese Flags. It gave the Iranians a hint that the US liberation might simply change the names of who's oppressing them.

Afghanistan is a better comparison than Panama or Iraq...and remind me who is in charge there after 20 years of American military dominance?

Actually Iraq would be a better comparison, the Afghanis ultimately don't care who rule over them that's part of the reason it didn't matter either way. Most of Iran clearly doesn't like the current leadership but America heavy handedness might mean they'll make a new government that isn't the same crowd but also hostile to US interests.

[Veromur]

America/israel bombing water storage, oil storage

Iran should respond

[The Galactic Supremacy]

"Young people are completely against this war. And it's only older Republicans support this war. Only." - Megyn Kelly.

[Nilokeras]

They are not professional grade soldiers, but cadres of stormtroopers more suited to bullying unarmed citizens in the streets than operating on a battlefield where they mostly end up just serving as fertilizer despite their efforts.

this is the same mindset that gets you to the Trump admins assumptions going into the war, where all they needed to win was to blast in with overwhelming air power, cut off the head of the Iranian government and the whole thing will collapse in on itself.

Or loses you Vietnam, really.

[The Free Brazilian People]

"Young people are completely against this war. And it's only older Republicans support this war. Only." - Megyn Kelly.

A woman like Megyn who speaks about the size of men's penises is person that's opinion is less than meaningless and it is astounding that people will listen to such nonsense coming out of her mouth and agree with these muslim talking points

[-Saiwania-]

"Young people are completely against this war. And it's only older Republicans support this war. Only." - Megyn Kelly.

It's like a cardinal rule of American politics if not most other countries' politics that the youth are never listened to. As a general rule, the young don't vote enough or aren't a very effective voting block and worse, aren't financially successful and so- aren't big donors, so can't buy policy or any influence from the decision makers actually in government.

[The Galactic Supremacy]

"Young people are completely against this war. And it's only older Republicans support this war. Only." - Megyn Kelly.

A woman like Megyn who speaks about the size of men's penises is person that's opinion is less than meaningless and it is astounding that people will listen to such nonsense coming out of her mouth and agree with these muslim talking points

In this regard, what she is saying is consistent with the data. US-led military action against Iran is widely considered the least popular initial military intervention in recent American history. Perhaps instead of lame ad hominems, you should engage with what was said.

[The Galactic Supremacy]

It's like a cardinal rule of American politics if not most other countries' politics that the youth are never listened to. As a general rule, the young don't vote enough or aren't a very effective voting block and worse, aren't financially successful and so- aren't big donors, so can't buy policy or any influence from the decision makers actually in government.

Certainly, but my subtext was that the old want the young to die for Israel.

[Europa Undivided]

"Young people are completely against this war. And it's only older Republicans support this war. Only." - Megyn Kelly.

It's like a cardinal rule of American politics if not most other countries' politics that the youth are never listened to. As a general rule, the young don't vote enough or aren't a very effective voting block and worse, aren't financially successful and so- aren't big donors, so can't buy policy or any influence from the decision makers actually in government.

Ideally, each young person's votes should be equal to that of ten geriatric ancients who are no longer aware of how the world works.

[The Free Brazilian People]

A woman like Megyn who speaks about the size of men's penises is person that's opinion is less than meaningless and it is astounding that people will listen to such nonsense coming out of her mouth and agree with these muslim talking points

In this regard, what she is saying is consistent with the data. US-led military action against Iran is widely considered the least popular initial military intervention in recent American history. Perhaps instead of lame ad hominems, you should engage with what was said.

The opinions of voters are meaningless when the opinion of God will be felt by all nations who curse Israel much like how Spain has already felt God's wrath

[Mercov]

In this regard, what she is saying is consistent with the data. US-led military action against Iran is widely considered the least popular initial military intervention in recent American history. Perhaps instead of lame ad hominems, you should engage with what was said.

The opinions of voters are meaningless when the opinion of God will be felt by all nations who curse Israel much like how Spain has already felt God's wrath

I'm a big fan of how the median pro-israel voice is someone who thinks all jews are going to hell now

[Camtropia]

In this regard, what she is saying is consistent with the data. US-led military action against Iran is widely considered the least popular initial military intervention in recent American history. Perhaps instead of lame ad hominems, you should engage with what was said.

The opinions of voters are meaningless when the opinion of God will be felt by all nations who curse Israel much like how Spain has already felt God's wrath

Wait, when did Spain feel God's wrath?

...OK, when did Spain feel God's wrath since this start of this war?

[The Free Brazilian People]

The opinions of voters are meaningless when the opinion of God will be felt by all nations who curse Israel much like how Spain has already felt God's wrath

I'm a big fan of how the median pro-israel voice is someone who thinks all jews are going to hell now

Most Jews become Christian before they die and this is a fact

[The Galactic Supremacy]

I'm a big fan of how the median pro-israel voice is someone who thinks all jews are going to hell now

Most Jews become Christian before they die and this is a fact

Source?