ELECTION 2044: The state-level races with possible national implications, analysed
SERRAPINCE: On February 5, as voters head to the polls, most attention will naturally be focused on the presidential and Senate elections. But while voters get to grasps with the four ballot papers they'll be issued when they step into a voting booth that day, both Prime Minister Sandra Campbell and Leader of the Opposition Alexander Morrison will be hoping for big victories in more minor arenas, comparatively — the state elections. Since 2035, all twenty-five states have synchronised their electoral cycle to take place in fixed, three-year intervals, with every other electoral term coinciding with the presidential election. This has changed the dynamic of these elections dramatically — where once they were a referendum on how the state was governed at the time of the election, they have now become a way for voters to express their sentiment on the incumbent federal government.
Eight of these twenty-five races are expected to be exceedingly close, and could see changes in who leads the state government. With the new mixed-member proportional representation electoral system in the mix, the question of who forms government is expected to be more complicated than in previous elections, too — it might take a while before coalition negotiations result in a government in all twenty-five of these states.
What is mixed-member proportional representation?
From the 2044 election onwards, the twenty-five states have agreed to all utilise mixed-member proportional representation as their electoral system. This means that on the state ballot paper (the yellow one), voters are given two choices — one vote for their local representative, in the left column, and one vote for a state party, in the right column. To correctly cast a vote, voters will have to select both a local representative and a state party — one choice from each column. A voter may also choose to vote for only a local representative, or only a state party.
Votes for both are tallied on election night. Constituency winners are allocated first, while the party vote is taken as the overall result of the election. Parties are then able to "top-up" their constituency winners to get an overall result that reflects how voters chose their parties. A party must win either one geographic constituency or 3% of the vote to be eligible for these top-up seats. In the event that a party wins more geographic constituencies than its vote share allows them to win, the party gets to keep these constituencies, and the additional seats are referred to as "overhangs".
Proponents of the system say that this shift will lead to a more proportional Tumbra and opens up a pathway for the House of Representatives to adopt this system in the future, while opponents say that the amount of state representatives that this system will lead to is "unsustainable," and that voters will effectively be surrendering power to party negotiators on who will form the government.
But with priority in these negotiations being given to the party that wins the most seats, there is still a noticeable advantage to who wins the elections — and with potentially every vote on the line throughout these states, campaigns have become more wide-reaching as party leaders step outside marginal seats and campaign throughout their states.
Raleigh
In Raleigh, one of the country's biggest states by area, but certainly not in population, sixty seats will be in play. Incumbent People's Party Premier Natalie Caspar won a two-seat majority in the 2041 elections, with Leader of the Opposition, Labour leader Dan Wilson, going for a re-match as he sets his sights on the Premier's office in Jesminster. The tough-talking left-wing populist, a former trade unionist turned politician, has said that Caspar "only concentrated her political resources on swing seats" until "this electoral system forced her to go around the state and talk to everybody." Caspar, on the other hand, has accused Wilson's populism of potentially "bringing economic ruin to the state" and has focused on a message of stable, tried and true conservatism.
In terms of the minor parties, the Moderate and Alliance parties — centrist liberals and left-wing environmentalists, respectively — are both expected to break the 3% limit and enter the state legislature, though both are expected to play a minor part in any coalition negotiations. Both Labour and the People's Party have taken leads at varying time in opinion polling, and the race has seen both Cabinet members and Shadow Cabinet members visit the state to campaign on behalf of Wilson and Caspar.
If Raleigh stays within the People's Party column, it will be a big setback to the populist-leftist wing of the federal Labour Party that is trying relentlessly to pull the party to the left. If Raleigh flips to Labour, it will both be a boon to that part of the party, and deprive federal Opposition leader Alexander Morrison of a key ally.
Georgia
The sapphire blue diamond in the People's Party crown, premier Daniel Sharp surprised many when he announced he would not be running for a third term as Premier, instead endorsing Michelle Lander, his deputy, for party leader. The move has seen Labour spy an opportunity to close the gap in the country's fourth-largest state, with Anne Winter, the Labour leader there, running an unusually negative campaign. Winter has accused the People's Party government of underfunding "practically everything that the state needs," especially housing and transport, which she says has contributed to the ongoing state-wide affordability crisis that was a factor in Sharp declining to run for a third term.
Hopes for a flip from blue to red in the newly-expanded 200-seat state legislature are slim, however; despite often being considered a swing state, Georgia has voted blue more often than not, and only a few polls have seen Labour ahead. Winter has said that her main objective is for Labour to "finish first," before deciding on coalition partners; both Lander and Winter have been courting the Moderate party, whose seemingly insurmountable position in third in the state has meant that they will likely be the kingmakers in the election. For their part, the Moderates have supposedly remained open to working with either party, but their party leader Calvin Perceval has allegedly spurned advances from Labour.
If Georgia stays within the People's Party column, not much will happen — the state is trending blue and keeping control of the state's government is regarded as a baseline for what is still a nominally competitive state. But if it flips Labour, federal Opposition leader Alexander Morrison will be in big trouble, and the sharks will start to circle — not least from Shadow Home Affairs Minister and factional rival, arch-conservative Alexander Hurst.
Harren
The northeast of the country is often seen as the one region where Labour reigns supreme, but the Cape State of Harren is probably the sole exception to that. Incumbent Premier Audrey Prentice has led a Labour government now described as "laggard" for the past five years, only narrowly winning re-election in 2041 after entering an uneasy coalition with the Moderate Party. With that coalition having come to an end, Prentice has controversially announced that she will not enter a second coalition with the party if they win the election, dramatically limiting her space to manouevre politically. Elsewhere, the People's Party leader, Christopher Woodhull, has courted controversy over the supposed nativist tone his campaign has taken — with Ben Carradine, a conservative influencer, supposedly taking on a major role in the Woodhull campaign and influencing the direction of the campaign.
Prentice has come under fire for a lot of her manifesto — with Woodhull's campaign stating that her plan to build 300,000 houses in the state over the next six years is simply a ploy to allow more immigrants into the state — but she has, curiously, apparently declined help from the federal Labour party to help with her campaign, much to the Harren branch's consternation. Polls have narrowed dramatically since the election campaign kicked off, and Labour insiders are worried about whether Prentice's campaign could potentially cost the presidential campaign of former Prime Minister Bertram Andrews crucial votes.
Much of the national impact in this race will come from if the People's Party flips the state. Doing so would deal a severe blow to Labour's morale, given that they have prided themselves on keeping this particular region of the country ruby red on the state level. The bigger Pandora's box, however, would be the People's Party looking at Woodhull's campaign, the rhetoric it employed, and could potentially bring his divisive campaign style onto the national stage in preparation for the 2045 federal election.
Fremont
The southwest's largest state also sees the most interesting of the eight battles here by far — instead of this one being a People's-Labour battle, this one instead sees an incumbent People's Party government led by Anne Fairchild going up against the more liberal and regionalist Republican Party. Fairchild, who is stepping down after nine years as Premier, saw the leadership of her party pass to Mark Coen, a longtime critic of Fairchild's government in a move that was seen as a saving throw by the People's Party. The election thus sees a curious case where both major party leaders — Coen and Republican premier-candidate Austin Harrier — are both running on repudiating Fairchild's legacy.
Coen's move of visibly distancing himself from Fairchild has alienated a lot in his party, not least federal leader Alexander Morrison — who has appeared reluctant to campaign on Coen's behalf. Coen has previously described himself as "a conservative in the Stephen Williams mold," a reference to the centrist former Prime Minister of Tumbra who eventually got kicked out and got re-elected twice as an independent MP. Harrier, on the other hand, has run a more cautious, centrist campaign, seeking to protect the Republicans' lead in the polls. While a post-election coalition with the Labour party is considered practically inevitable, considering the two parties' friendly working relationship, Harrier has courted controversy by refusing to commit early, seemingly operating on the logic that committing to the idea of a Republican-Labour coalition could alienate People's Party voters who might give their votes to Harrier at the last minute.
Fremont is thought to be seen internally in the People's Party as a key battle in their fight to maintain control of the region that they have long since held to be a stronghold; should Fremont flip to the Republicans, it means the insurgents will now hold three of the four state governments in the South-West. At the same time, however, a loss here would not be treated as seriously as one in Georgia; partially due to the state party's puzzling decision to run a candidate repudiating the policies of another from the same party, and they might very well have seen this as a lost cause, judging by the reluctance of Shadow Cabinet members to turn out for Coen — instead choosing to turn out in Grantfeldt and Marlsbruhe.
Gamaliel
Centrist premier Brendan Charlton has been swimming against the tide for the past six years now, but he still holds on to his role as Premier despite essentially being the top target for the People's Party each state election cycle. It is not difficult to understand why; Gamaliel, before Charlton took the state by storm, was trending reliably blue, but since Charlton took the reins of the state, the state Labour Party has seen something of a renaissance. Voters in Gamaliel love him, and there are consistent rumours in Straton that Prime Minister Sandra Campbell is constantly trying to recruit him for federal politics, while dangling the job of Finance Minister to entice him.
Yet his centrist attitude and willingness to abandon the furthest left elements of his party have not endeared him to the progressive wing of the party specifically, with many calling him a "People's Party candidate in disguise". Charlton, in between ignoring these accusations, has always pointed to the more conservative elements of his state outside of the two major cities of Readale and Bradesburgh as the reason why he tacks to the centre. He's also been called Teflon Brendan for his ability to avoid scandals, or come out of them minimally harmed; which is a large part of the reason why he has survived this long.
People's Party leader Doug Edwards has seemingly been at a loss as to how to counter Charlton's popularity, though the marginal nature of the state means that he will always be in with a chance. Allying himself closely to federal People's Party leader Alexander Morrison, Morrison has only been too happy to reciprocate the support given to him, having made several appearances on Edwards' behalf on the campaign trail. A Labour loss here would likely see Charlton depart politics entirely, and lose Labour a key member of its centrist faction; which are both outcomes that the Prime Minister wishes to avoid, as she navigates tricky intra-party factional dynamics.
Westmond
Daniel Fowler's first three years in the job haven't exactly been the smoothest, with several public infrastructure projects having ballooned in cost and adding to the deficit. The former federal Foreign Minister has constantly been under fire by the People's Party here, with leader Ada Blackwood campaigning on a reduction in scope of these public infrastructural projects to bring the state's deficit under control. But Fowler is personally popular, and a win for the People's Party is seen as unlikely.
Fowler, however, will have to contend with pressure from the left — the Social Democratic Party has made this state a key target of theirs in their quest to gain representation in the state legislature. With third parties expected to win a hefty proportion of seats in the Westmond legislature, Fowler has already hedged on which of the potential partners he will end up shacking with; but he has expressed a personal preference for a red-green-yellow "traffic light coalition" with the environmentalist Alliance and the liberal Moderates.
Nationally, a win for the People's Party here would mean a huge morale boost for them, as Fowler (and Brendan Charlton in neighbouring Gamaliel) are two of the biggest scalps up for taking on Labour's side. Yet the state is not seen as a high-value target for the centre-right; Gamaliel is seen as much more attainable, and the party is also heavily investing in its defence in neighbouring Grantfeldt.
Grantfeldt
Grantfeldt is the state on everybody's lips this election. On the presidential level, it is regarded as a key state to win; both People's Party nominee Melanie Coburn and Labour's vice-presidential pick, William Holman, are from here — and both got to their positions in some way thanks to their positions as Grantfeldt Senators. It's no different on the state level — People's Party premier George Killian and his challenger, Labour leader Alexis Cole, have been engaged in a fierce battle that has gone on even before the official starting gun for the election campaign started. It is, by all accounts on either side, a battle that has become relentlessly personal for both Killian and Cole; and both Alexander Morrison and Sandra Campbell, federal leaders of the People's and Labour parties, have urged both to tune it down and run on their records anyway.
The main issue at hand for the election is the question of manufacturing; Killian has campaigned relentlessly on his efforts to bring manufacturing back to the state, while Cole has instead spoken of a need to move the state towards a more service-based economy. These have lent themselves well to the predominant lines of attack used during the election campaign; Killian has said that Cole is an out-of-touch citydweller who does not understand the value of manufacturing to the economy of the state, while Cole has insisted that Killian is a backwards-looking conservative whose theories have no grounding in Tumbra's current economic reality. Cole has said that the money spent propping up Grantfeldt's manufacturing sector will instead be spent on making tuition at Northwestern University, the state's university, free for all Grantfeldt residents, in a bid to upskill students.
With this being the most marginal of the states, Grantfeldt's swing will be eagerly analysed by almost everyone; firstly, a Labour win here would give insiders great relief as to the direction of their federal election campaign next June, as several marginal seats are located in key constituencies that Cole will have to win. A People's Party win would represent the opposite; and insiders are hoping that presidential nominee Melanie Coburn being from here means that they will have a natural advantage.
Marlsbruhe
Premier Amanda Rakestraw has staked her entire political future on this election. At just 38, the Premier has been in office for little over sixteen months, being hastily installed after the resignation of Claude Kerrigan in a wake of scandal. Her opponent in this election — political scion Brian Harris, who comes from a long line of Labour politicians — has since been relentlessly hitting her on her involvement in Kerrigan's insider trading scandals, but those attacks have failed to move the needle. Rakestraw, by contrast, has embarked on a barnstorming listening tour of the entire state, meaning that the Premier now holds an advantage in the preferred Premier polls against her opponent.
Yet she has had to deal with several rogue Cabinet members. Her deputy Premier, Joe Menzies, has come under fire for calling for a "wall" to be built on the western border between Tumbra and its neighbouring state; Menzies has subsequently been removed from all campaign meetings and is likely not to be named in Rakestraw's cabinet should she win. Other similar incidents have meant that there is a growing perception that Rakestraw is out of control of her own Cabinet; Harris, on the other hand, has gleefully insinuated that this means she will not be able to take control of a coalition after the election.
Despite the People's Party continually tripping over itself, Labour have done the same; they have been accused of failing to provide a real alternative to the People's Party in the state. The election is likely to see both major parties limping to the finish, with minor parties set to jostle for the spot of kingmaker. People's Party leader Alexander Morrison has perhaps dedicated the most time to this state in Rakestraw's defence; being both young and a woman, having her at the helm of Tumbra's sixth largest state means a lot to the leader personally as the party struggles on a federal level to reach out to women voters.
