UK Politics Thread: Kemi Badenoch elected Tory Leader

[Shamhnan Insir]

Home from work. After a (long) day filled with continued appalling management, blatant favoritism (bordering on nepotism) and genuine disappointment I have redressed my plan.
So its a beer for the moment for enjoying on the dog walk.
Then dinner prep and dinner itself, perhaps wine.
Slipping into the gin slippers for the evening afterwards and sticking the middle finger up at any thoughts of decency at work tomorrow and see where the night goes.
Throughout there will be lengthy discussion over data in my fiancés thesis, as well as ample dog related faff and, if I can find the crumbs of time left - attempts at book writing.

[Imperializt Russia]

Welp, voted Green rather than spoiling my ballot, mostly decided because the guy who knocked on my door seemed nice.

My first election was 2015, and I did the same then. In 2017 I held my nose and gave the Lib Dems a tactical vote because I wanted a Corbyn government. In 2019 I said fuck it and voted with my heart for Labour. And now I'm back where I began, and I wouldn't be surprised if I end up voting this way for the rest of my life.

Never got doorknocked.

Did notice the incumbent MP sniffing around at the bottom of my street last night. Him and I assume his wife, out with another couple, no real volunteer presence and they didn't exactly look laden with leaflets.

Not sure if they were actually doorknocking at all, it's conceivable that he does live here, but a friend told me he's from the posher town up the road where the Labour candidate is from, and has lived in London a long time, so, tossup.

[Philjia]

Welp, voted Green rather than spoiling my ballot, mostly decided because the guy who knocked on my door seemed nice.

My first election was 2015, and I did the same then. In 2017 I held my nose and gave the Lib Dems a tactical vote because I wanted a Corbyn government. In 2019 I said fuck it and voted with my heart for Labour. And now I'm back where I began, and I wouldn't be surprised if I end up voting this way for the rest of my life.

Never got doorknocked.

Did notice the incumbent MP sniffing around at the bottom of my street last night. Him and I assume his wife, out with another couple, no real volunteer presence and they didn't exactly look laden with leaflets.

Not sure if they were actually doorknocking at all, it's conceivable that he does live here, but a friend told me he's from the posher town up the road where the Labour candidate is from, and has lived in London a long time, so, tossup.

Nobody doorknocks here because the people would elect a dog wearing a red rosette. There might have been some more active campaigning at the other end of the constituency which has some Conservatives in local government was formerly part of a constituency that voted Tory in 2019.

Because the Greens are organised by local government area and all our constituencies but one are now mostly in other local parties' jurisdictions, we've only stood one candidate of our own in Gateshead Central and Whickham and have thrown pretty much everything at retaining our deposit because it's £500 we can ill afford to lose. (Our candidate is also our current target candidate for local government so it should help her visibility, she got to go on local BBC TV a couple of times)

[Nimzonia]

Welp, voted Green rather than spoiling my ballot, mostly decided because the guy who knocked on my door seemed nice.

My first election was 2015, and I did the same then. In 2017 I held my nose and gave the Lib Dems a tactical vote because I wanted a Corbyn government. In 2019 I said fuck it and voted with my heart for Labour. And now I'm back where I began, and I wouldn't be surprised if I end up voting this way for the rest of my life.

This election isn't about getting the government you want, it's about putting the boot into the Tories.

[The Huskar Social Union]

MRP Final Update

We published our final polling call last night based on our telephone poll conducted between the 1st and the 3rd of July, alongside an updated set of MRP estimates.

Overnight, we ran the model again, which now includes the final responses collected by telephone yesterday evening, but with a higher number of simulations (800). This will be our final update of any kind for this General Election. Below are our updated MRP seat estimates for GE 2024, with changes vs. 3rd July 2024.

Final probabilistic seat count:

LAB: 470 (-5)
CON: 68 (+4)
LDM: 59 (-1)
SNP: 14 (+1)
RFM: 15 (+2)
GRN: 4 (+1)
PLAID: 3 (-1)

For the avoidance of doubt, there is no data in this release collected today. @Survation

[Celritannia]

MRP Final Update

We published our final polling call last night based on our telephone poll conducted between the 1st and the 3rd of July, alongside an updated set of MRP estimates.

Overnight, we ran the model again, which now includes the final responses collected by telephone yesterday evening, but with a higher number of simulations (800). This will be our final update of any kind for this General Election. Below are our updated MRP seat estimates for GE 2024, with changes vs. 3rd July 2024.

Final probabilistic seat count:

LAB: 470 (-5)
CON: 68 (+4)
LDM: 59 (-1)
SNP: 14 (+1)
RFM: 15 (+2)
GRN: 4 (+1)
PLAID: 3 (-1)

For the avoidance of doubt, there is no data in this release collected today. @Survation

I absolutely hope the Lib Dems form the opposition, it would be the icing on the cake.

[Atrito]

MRP Final Update

We published our final polling call last night based on our telephone poll conducted between the 1st and the 3rd of July, alongside an updated set of MRP estimates.

Overnight, we ran the model again, which now includes the final responses collected by telephone yesterday evening, but with a higher number of simulations (800). This will be our final update of any kind for this General Election. Below are our updated MRP seat estimates for GE 2024, with changes vs. 3rd July 2024.

Final probabilistic seat count:

LAB: 470 (-5)
CON: 68 (+4)
LDM: 59 (-1)
SNP: 14 (+1)
RFM: 15 (+2)
GRN: 4 (+1)
PLAID: 3 (-1)

For the avoidance of doubt, there is no data in this release collected today. @Survation

Reform on 15 is awful, but at least they're behind the Lib Dems (and the Tories, who are a tad more moderate)

[The Joeanian Republic]

First time voting. I've made my vote. Labour.

[Anonymegg]

Wow. This post is so incredibly ignorant and offensively wrong. The truth is that Sinn Fein will win the British AND Irish elections and repeal the Northern Ireland (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act of 2014 so that the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland can legally have the same person as their shared prime minister, turning "Great" Britain into a mere Irish colony.

Man it would be hilarious if Sinn Fein somehow won a majority in Westminster and you had more than half of Parliament refusing to take their seats.

I mean obviously a disaster for Britain, but not much more of a disaster than one month of Liz Truss...

Sinn Féin won't make the jump from 7 to 325+ seats

[The Huskar Social Union]

MRP Final Update

We published our final polling call last night based on our telephone poll conducted between the 1st and the 3rd of July, alongside an updated set of MRP estimates.

Overnight, we ran the model again, which now includes the final responses collected by telephone yesterday evening, but with a higher number of simulations (800). This will be our final update of any kind for this General Election. Below are our updated MRP seat estimates for GE 2024, with changes vs. 3rd July 2024.

Final probabilistic seat count:

LAB: 470 (-5)
CON: 68 (+4)
LDM: 59 (-1)
SNP: 14 (+1)
RFM: 15 (+2)
GRN: 4 (+1)
PLAID: 3 (-1)

For the avoidance of doubt, there is no data in this release collected today. @Survation

Reform on 15 is awful, but at least they're behind the Lib Dems (and the Tories, who are a tad more moderate)

If this result was accurate to the actual election result tonight and the Conservatives and Reform ended up on that number of seats i think the Tories would genuinely be fucked long term, especially if they continue to flounder post election. 15 MP's would be a good basis to actually present yourself as a credible alternative to right wing voters in the UK and might even encourage defections from the Conservative party.

[The Huskar Social Union]

First time voting. I've made my vote. Labour.

This is democracy manifest. Look at how he puts the ballot paper in here.

[Dumb Ideologies]

Voted for the Greens. Seems to be a paper candidate as I've not seen them campaign at all but that's my scream into the political void done for today.

[Free Land of The Free Land of Freedo]

A Limited Company that bankrolls an out of touch elitist who is slowly sipping on the chalice of Fascism.

Yeah, sadly he isn't but it'll do for now

[Makko Oko]

Happy American independence day to the people reading this thread! If you are voting, hopefully the tories don't win! #TorypendenceDay

[Austria-Bohemia-Hungary]

So
When can we expect rishi to be handing in his resignation letter

[Philjia]

Britain Elects final prediction
Labour: 418
Conservatives: 114
Liberal Democrats: 63
SNP: 23
Reform: 6
Green: 4
Plaid Cymru: 3

Election Maps UK eve of poll prediction (may be updated in the morning if more polls are released before polls open)
Labour: 436
Conservatives: 101
Liberal Democrats: 66
SNP: 17
Greens: 4
Plaid Cymru: 4
Reform: 3

Slight dip in Reform support on the eve of polling looks like it should be enough to push the Conservatives just over a hundred seats tomorrow, although still suffering a historically catastrophic defeat.

Electoral Calculus, final prediction
Labour: 453
Conservatives: 78
Liberal Democrats: 67
SNP: 19
Reform: 7
Greens: 3
Plaid Cymru: 3
Independents: 1 (Corbyn)

[Anonymegg]

So
When can we expect rishi to be handing in his resignation letter

Whenever the election results are annonced

[Imperializt Russia]

So
When can we expect rishi to be handing in his resignation letter

Whenever the election results are annonced

But he promised he definitely wouldn't be doing that. Just like Cameron did!

[Ostroeuropa]

Reason 89303 it's good I am not an MP.

The overwhelming urge to tell party members to fuck off home and stop complicating the operation when they turn up out of the blue and start demanding to help while fucking things up.

[Imperializt Russia]

First time voting. I've made my vote. Labour.

This is democracy manifest. Look at how he puts the ballot paper in here.

You know your pen-kata well!

[Ostroeuropa]

The sheer adrenaline spike from people not recognising your authority but not having the authority to chew them out for not doing so and having to waste superiors time with their nonsense while feeling it reflects badly on me has broken my brain.

Back to it.

[Ifreann]

MRP Final Update

We published our final polling call last night based on our telephone poll conducted between the 1st and the 3rd of July, alongside an updated set of MRP estimates.

Overnight, we ran the model again, which now includes the final responses collected by telephone yesterday evening, but with a higher number of simulations (800). This will be our final update of any kind for this General Election. Below are our updated MRP seat estimates for GE 2024, with changes vs. 3rd July 2024.

Final probabilistic seat count:

LAB: 470 (-5)
CON: 68 (+4)
LDM: 59 (-1)
SNP: 14 (+1)
RFM: 15 (+2)
GRN: 4 (+1)
PLAID: 3 (-1)

For the avoidance of doubt, there is no data in this release collected today. @Survation

I absolutely hope the Lib Dems form the opposition, it would be the icing on the cake.

Do it, Davey, you absolute mad lad.

[Imperializt Russia]

I absolutely hope the Lib Dems form the opposition, it would be the icing on the cake.

Do it, Davey, you absolute mad lad.

[Ifreann]

Do it, Davey, you absolute mad lad.

Giant jenga in every house!

[Imperializt Russia]

Meanwhile, my seat apparently has the Tories and Reform (with a Tory incumbent) fighting hard for second place. I think the Tories will come a disappointing third behind them. Sad times.