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Ukrainian Invasion Thread II: Sunrise on the Dnieper

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Novus America
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Postby Novus America » Wed Mar 30, 2022 11:38 am

Utquiagvik wrote:
Chan Island wrote:
Tit for tat also won’t work for Russia because 100% of Ukrainian war crimes are directly caused by the Russian invasion. If Russia was really so upset at these war crimes, then they could leave at any time and end the war in an instant.

But they don’t. Instead they bombard Mariupol and every kindergarten they can find.

Putin has no regrets. he has no guilt or shame for the innocents hes murdered.


Unfortunately true. Which makes it more impossible to sympathize. Putin is a pure sociopath. No regard for any external morality, no regard for human life, even of his own countrymen, and a coward to boot.

Some Ukrainians going rogue is different than the entire Russian state being a criminal enterprise.
Although it cannot be really said Putin’s Russia went rogue though being that sociopathic criminality has always been not just a feature, but in fact a central pillar of his regime.

And there are not real functioning independent institutions, Putin is the government and the government is Putin.
So that which is attributable to one is equally attributable to the other.
Last edited by Novus America on Wed Mar 30, 2022 11:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Bewaffnete Krafte
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Postby Bewaffnete Krafte » Wed Mar 30, 2022 11:45 am

Christian Confederation wrote:Any hope for the Istanbul talks?

Zelenskyy DID say he'd be willing to genuinely forever block Ukraine from Joining NATO if that brought peace (i think, idk if it's true), so it looks like they are trying to reach some kind of deal.
Last edited by Bewaffnete Krafte on Wed Mar 30, 2022 11:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Vistulange
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Postby Vistulange » Wed Mar 30, 2022 11:46 am

Christian Confederation wrote:Any hope for the Istanbul talks?

Turkish media is uncharacteristically mum on the talks. Whatever they're printing, be it pro-government or pro-opposition, is quotes from Ukrainian or Russian officials, nothing from the Turkish folks. Pro-government daily Sabah has an article whose title can roughly be translated to "footsteps of peace following Istanbul summit", but it's clickbait (surprise, surprise): all it shares is Zelensky's statement that they'd put an agreement to a referendum; nothing new. Opposition daily Cumhuriyet has statements from one Vladimir Medinsky, but it's all stuff we know.

So yeah, nothing new just yet, it would seem.

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Bewaffnete Krafte
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Postby Bewaffnete Krafte » Wed Mar 30, 2022 11:50 am

Whoah, What?
On Wikipedia, It appears Russian estimates for their own losses are now HIGHER than Ukraine's estimates for russia's losses. What?
wiki article
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Kubra
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Postby Kubra » Wed Mar 30, 2022 11:51 am

Adamede wrote:
Dtn wrote:
The most famous one appears to be real, the location isn't under Russian control (according to NYT) and it was posted by Konstantin Nemichev.

The document ordering fake torture videos has been verified as fake itself by Western sources, of course this isn't conclusive proof it isn't happening.

Honestly with how brutal this war is I'd be more surprised if it turned out there weren't executions of PoWs from either side.
As far as war crimes go preventing executions of PoW's is generally the hardest one to enforce, for obvious reasons.
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The Alma Mater
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Postby The Alma Mater » Wed Mar 30, 2022 11:53 am

Bewaffnete Krafte wrote:Whoah, What?
On Wikipedia, It appears Russian estimates for their own losses are now HIGHER than Ukraine's estimates for russia's losses. What?
wiki article


Sounds like a good reason for Russians to justify the use of serious weapons...
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Novus America
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Postby Novus America » Wed Mar 30, 2022 11:54 am

Bewaffnete Krafte wrote:
Christian Confederation wrote:Any hope for the Istanbul talks?

Zelenskyy DID say he'd be willing to genuinely forever block Ukraine from Joining NATO if that brought peace, so it looks like they are trying to reach some kind of deal.


Well forever does not exist, especially in foreign policy, something Putin and Russia cannot seem to understand, you cannot freeze time, and times change.

One would have to see the terms of the treaty, a treaty with no exit clause is assumed to be able to be unilaterally renounced by either at any time. And such a treaty could be claimed to be inherently voidable by Ukraine as it was act gun point. I assume Russia would require any exit to require Russia agree, but the validity of that could be questionable.

But yes Zelensky is willing to compromise. But he has pointed out he is not a dictator and such a treaty would need to be supported by a referendum and the appropriate majority of Parliament.

Unlike Putin he cannot simply force conditions on his own people at gun point.

Putin can arbitrarily pick whatever he chooses to accept. But will he accept any reasonable compromise?
Last edited by Novus America on Wed Mar 30, 2022 12:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Novus America represents my vision of an awesome Atompunk near future United States of America expanded to the entire North American continent, Guyana and the Philippines. The population would be around 700 million.
Think something like prewar Fallout, minus the bad stuff.

Politically I am an independent. I support what is good for the country, which means I cannot support either party.

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El Lazaro
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Postby El Lazaro » Wed Mar 30, 2022 12:09 pm

Bewaffnete Krafte wrote:Whoah, What?
On Wikipedia, It appears Russian estimates for their own losses are now HIGHER than Ukraine's estimates for russia's losses. What?
wiki article

Those are very outdated numbers for Ukraine’s estimate, 1400 is nowhere near the most conservative estimates from non-Kremlin sources.

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Bewaffnete Krafte
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Postby Bewaffnete Krafte » Wed Mar 30, 2022 12:13 pm

El Lazaro wrote:
Bewaffnete Krafte wrote:Whoah, What?
On Wikipedia, It appears Russian estimates for their own losses are now HIGHER than Ukraine's estimates for russia's losses. What?
wiki article

Those are very outdated numbers for Ukraine’s estimate, 1400 is nowhere near the most conservative estimates from non-Kremlin sources.

To be fair, NATO's putting Russia's losses at 30-40k, Which I think we all know is... Unlikely? IDK how long it takes to lose 30k soldiers in war, but it seems longer than this.
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Postby Ostroeuropa » Wed Mar 30, 2022 12:18 pm

Novus America wrote:
Bewaffnete Krafte wrote:Zelenskyy DID say he'd be willing to genuinely forever block Ukraine from Joining NATO if that brought peace, so it looks like they are trying to reach some kind of deal.


Well forever does not exist, especially in foreign policy, something Putin and Russia cannot seem to understand, you cannot freeze time, and times change.

One would have to see the terms of the treaty, a treaty with no exit clause is assumed to be able to be unilaterally renounced by either at any time. And such a treaty could be claimed to be inherently voidable by Ukraine as it was act gun point. I assume Russia would require any exit to require Russia agree, but the validity of that could be questionable.

But yes Zelensky is willing to compromise. But he has pointed out he is not a dictator and such a treaty would need to be supported by a referendum and the appropriate majority of Parliament.

Unlike Putin he cannot simply force conditions on his own people at gun point.

Putin can arbitrarily pick whatever he chooses to accept. But will he accept any reasonable compromise?


The "reasonable compromise" would be that Russia agrees to war reperations contingent on Ukraine not joining NATO, with the exit clause being that Ukraine joining NATO voids Russia's reperation obligations. Russia vacates the territory.

This provides some measure of justice for Ukraine and allows Russia to partially save face, while ultimately it means that eventually, Ukraine will join NATO at some point in the future when the debt is paid, or can decide to do so if they are content to have Russia vacate its reperations.

At that point a NATO referendum has some meaningful question to put to the Ukrainian people rather than it being a farce with a guaranteed 99% "Yes Join NATO" outcome. It may be that Ukraine will nonetheless decide to join NATO and will abandon a claim to Russian reperations in order to emphasize this. (The western powers will likely invest heavily in Ukraine at any rate).

I think this is the most Russia can possibly expect in terms of concessions to them frankly. A voiding of their financial obligation to Ukraine would be a factor in considerations over sanctions. I sorely doubt other powers will be willing to lift sanctions on Russia until arrangements are made by Russia to handle their financial obligations to Ukraine. Either them paying reperations or Ukraine voiding the debt in some manner like discussed here would be the first condition before a discussion can even begin.

It is not the only consideration however. It is a necessary but not sufficient requirement.

War reperations could feasibly kick the can down the road 100 years or so if Ukraine would prefer those Reperations over NATO membership. They often take a long while to pay. In strategic terms that is for all intents and purposes what Russia wants given that "forever" is a laughable non-starter both legally, ethically, and practically. However this would also respect Ukrainian sovereignty and leave them the option of membership, albeit at a certain cost, essentially an option to return to the status quo ante-bellum for Ukraine.
Last edited by Ostroeuropa on Wed Mar 30, 2022 12:34 pm, edited 8 times in total.
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El Lazaro
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Postby El Lazaro » Wed Mar 30, 2022 12:25 pm

Bewaffnete Krafte wrote:
Christian Confederation wrote:Any hope for the Istanbul talks?

Zelenskyy DID say he'd be willing to genuinely forever block Ukraine from Joining NATO if that brought peace (i think, idk if it's true), so it looks like they are trying to reach some kind of deal.

The deal would involve another power coming to the defense of Ukraine if it was invaded, which is the reason they wanted to join NATO in the first place.

Putin allegedly responded by saying “tell [Zelensky] I will thrash [Ukraine],” according to Abramovich, when he was presented the terms.

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Bewaffnete Krafte
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Postby Bewaffnete Krafte » Wed Mar 30, 2022 12:30 pm

El Lazaro wrote:
Bewaffnete Krafte wrote:Zelenskyy DID say he'd be willing to genuinely forever block Ukraine from Joining NATO if that brought peace (i think, idk if it's true), so it looks like they are trying to reach some kind of deal.

The deal would involve another power coming to the defense of Ukraine if it was invaded, which is the reason they wanted to join NATO in the first place.

Putin allegedly responded by saying “tell [Zelensky] I will thrash [Ukraine],” according to Abramovich, when he was presented the terms.

I've only heard the word thrash used once before.
And I'm not trying to make any point, but like, im JUST saying...
Putin is lancer???
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Spirit of Hope
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Postby Spirit of Hope » Wed Mar 30, 2022 12:34 pm

Grain of salt, but NYT reporting that Putin is receiving misinformation from his subordinates, including on details like the deployment of conscripts, military progress and economic damages.

WASHINGTON — President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has been misinformed by his advisers about the Russian military’s struggles in Ukraine, according to declassified U.S. intelligence.

The intelligence, according to multiple U.S. officials, shows what appears to be growing tension between Mr. Putin and the Ministry of Defense, including with the Russian defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, who was once among the most trusted members of the Kremlin’s inner circle.

Speaking in Algiers, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken acknowledged Mr. Putin had been given less than truthful information from his advisers.

“With regard to President Putin, look, what I can tell you is this, and I said this before, one of the Achilles' heel of autocracies is that you don’t have people in those systems who speak truth to power or who have the ability to speak truth to power,” Mr. Blinken said. “And I think that is something that we’re seeing in Russia.”

Other American officials have said that Mr. Putin’s rigid isolation during the pandemic and willingness to publicly rebuke advisers who do not share his views have created a degree of wariness, or even fear, in senior ranks of the Russian military. Officials believe that Mr. Putin is getting incomplete or overly optimistic reports about the progress of Russian forces

Mr. Putin seemed genuinely unaware that the Russian military had been using conscripts in Ukraine, and that drafted soldiers were among those killed in action, according to the U.S. officials. Mr. Putin’s ignorance showed “a clear breakdown in the flow of accurate information to the Russian president,” according to a U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the declassified, but still sensitive, material. There “is now persistent tension” between Mr. Putin and the Defense Ministry, the official said.

The American intelligence assessment also said that Mr. Putin had an incomplete understanding about how damaging Western sanctions had been on the Russian economy, officials said.

The war continues to go poorly for Russian forces. Ukraine’s military has not only held its own but also begun counterattacking. Some U.S. officials believe that senior Russian officials are wary of delivering truthful assessments — potentially afraid that the messengers of bad news will be held responsible for the battlefield failures.

The Russian military’s stumbles have eroded trust between Mr. Putin and his Ministry of Defense. While Mr. Shoigu had been considered one of the few advisers Mr. Putin confided in, the prosecution of the war in Ukraine has damaged the relationship.

Mr. Putin has put two top intelligence officials under house arrest for providing poor intelligence ahead of the invasion, something that may have further contributed to the climate of fear.

With evidence of Mr. Putin’s frustration growing, the United States has in recent weeks been building up an intelligence case that he had not been getting accurate assessments from the Ministry of Defense and other senior officials. The U.S. officials believe that Mr. Putin is continuing to be misled and that senior advisers are unwilling to tell the truth.

What American intelligence sources there might be in the Kremlin is a tightly held secret. But since Russia began its troop buildup along Ukraine’s borders last year, U.S. intelligence officials have accurately predicted Mr. Putin’s moves.

The declassified information was reported earlier on Wednesday by The Associated Press.

Russian forces announced a shift in their posture around Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, on Tuesday, though American officials voiced skepticism that Russia was stopping its attacks as a peace gesture. Rather, some believe the moves are a further sign that Russia is adjusting its failing strategy.It is also possible that the shifting strategy is a sign of dysfunction and miscommunication in the upper ranks of the Russian Defense Ministry.

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Postby American Legionaries » Wed Mar 30, 2022 12:43 pm

Spirit of Hope wrote:Grain of salt, but NYT reporting that Putin is receiving misinformation from his subordinates, including on details like the deployment of conscripts, military progress and economic damages.

WASHINGTON — President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has been misinformed by his advisers about the Russian military’s struggles in Ukraine, according to declassified U.S. intelligence.

The intelligence, according to multiple U.S. officials, shows what appears to be growing tension between Mr. Putin and the Ministry of Defense, including with the Russian defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, who was once among the most trusted members of the Kremlin’s inner circle.

Speaking in Algiers, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken acknowledged Mr. Putin had been given less than truthful information from his advisers.

“With regard to President Putin, look, what I can tell you is this, and I said this before, one of the Achilles' heel of autocracies is that you don’t have people in those systems who speak truth to power or who have the ability to speak truth to power,” Mr. Blinken said. “And I think that is something that we’re seeing in Russia.”

Other American officials have said that Mr. Putin’s rigid isolation during the pandemic and willingness to publicly rebuke advisers who do not share his views have created a degree of wariness, or even fear, in senior ranks of the Russian military. Officials believe that Mr. Putin is getting incomplete or overly optimistic reports about the progress of Russian forces

Mr. Putin seemed genuinely unaware that the Russian military had been using conscripts in Ukraine, and that drafted soldiers were among those killed in action, according to the U.S. officials. Mr. Putin’s ignorance showed “a clear breakdown in the flow of accurate information to the Russian president,” according to a U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the declassified, but still sensitive, material. There “is now persistent tension” between Mr. Putin and the Defense Ministry, the official said.

The American intelligence assessment also said that Mr. Putin had an incomplete understanding about how damaging Western sanctions had been on the Russian economy, officials said.

The war continues to go poorly for Russian forces. Ukraine’s military has not only held its own but also begun counterattacking. Some U.S. officials believe that senior Russian officials are wary of delivering truthful assessments — potentially afraid that the messengers of bad news will be held responsible for the battlefield failures.

The Russian military’s stumbles have eroded trust between Mr. Putin and his Ministry of Defense. While Mr. Shoigu had been considered one of the few advisers Mr. Putin confided in, the prosecution of the war in Ukraine has damaged the relationship.

Mr. Putin has put two top intelligence officials under house arrest for providing poor intelligence ahead of the invasion, something that may have further contributed to the climate of fear.

With evidence of Mr. Putin’s frustration growing, the United States has in recent weeks been building up an intelligence case that he had not been getting accurate assessments from the Ministry of Defense and other senior officials. The U.S. officials believe that Mr. Putin is continuing to be misled and that senior advisers are unwilling to tell the truth.

What American intelligence sources there might be in the Kremlin is a tightly held secret. But since Russia began its troop buildup along Ukraine’s borders last year, U.S. intelligence officials have accurately predicted Mr. Putin’s moves.

The declassified information was reported earlier on Wednesday by The Associated Press.

Russian forces announced a shift in their posture around Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, on Tuesday, though American officials voiced skepticism that Russia was stopping its attacks as a peace gesture. Rather, some believe the moves are a further sign that Russia is adjusting its failing strategy.It is also possible that the shifting strategy is a sign of dysfunction and miscommunication in the upper ranks of the Russian Defense Ministry.


It's reasonable to assume, given the rumors of him punishing military officers, that this is occurring to some degree.

No telling if it's enough to seriously hamper the government's capacity to make decisions.

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Postby United Valik » Wed Mar 30, 2022 12:46 pm

Ah, lying to the Boss. That fine old Russian/Soviet custom, very old indeed.
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Postby Tarsonis » Wed Mar 30, 2022 12:59 pm

United Valik wrote:Ah, lying to the Boss. That fine old Russian/Soviet custom, very old indeed.


3.6 Roentgen. not great not terrible.
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Postby The North Polish Union » Wed Mar 30, 2022 1:15 pm

The ruble is the best-performing currency of March.

"Analysts, however, say the recovery in the ruble suggests the impact of the West’s economic sanctions are much lower than anticipated initially. “The sanctions and curbs had created insolvency risks for the Russian economy, leading to a big sell-off in the ruble.

The economic stress has, however, lessened considerably as European countries continue to buy oil and gas from Russia, and major emerging markets including China continue to trade with Russia,” said Dhananjay Sinha, managing director and chief strategist, JM Finance Institutional Equity."
Last edited by The North Polish Union on Wed Mar 30, 2022 1:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Spirit of Hope » Wed Mar 30, 2022 1:41 pm

American Legionaries wrote:
Spirit of Hope wrote:Grain of salt, but NYT reporting that Putin is receiving misinformation from his subordinates, including on details like the deployment of conscripts, military progress and economic damages.

WASHINGTON — President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has been misinformed by his advisers about the Russian military’s struggles in Ukraine, according to declassified U.S. intelligence.

The intelligence, according to multiple U.S. officials, shows what appears to be growing tension between Mr. Putin and the Ministry of Defense, including with the Russian defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, who was once among the most trusted members of the Kremlin’s inner circle.

Speaking in Algiers, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken acknowledged Mr. Putin had been given less than truthful information from his advisers.

“With regard to President Putin, look, what I can tell you is this, and I said this before, one of the Achilles' heel of autocracies is that you don’t have people in those systems who speak truth to power or who have the ability to speak truth to power,” Mr. Blinken said. “And I think that is something that we’re seeing in Russia.”

Other American officials have said that Mr. Putin’s rigid isolation during the pandemic and willingness to publicly rebuke advisers who do not share his views have created a degree of wariness, or even fear, in senior ranks of the Russian military. Officials believe that Mr. Putin is getting incomplete or overly optimistic reports about the progress of Russian forces

Mr. Putin seemed genuinely unaware that the Russian military had been using conscripts in Ukraine, and that drafted soldiers were among those killed in action, according to the U.S. officials. Mr. Putin’s ignorance showed “a clear breakdown in the flow of accurate information to the Russian president,” according to a U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the declassified, but still sensitive, material. There “is now persistent tension” between Mr. Putin and the Defense Ministry, the official said.

The American intelligence assessment also said that Mr. Putin had an incomplete understanding about how damaging Western sanctions had been on the Russian economy, officials said.

The war continues to go poorly for Russian forces. Ukraine’s military has not only held its own but also begun counterattacking. Some U.S. officials believe that senior Russian officials are wary of delivering truthful assessments — potentially afraid that the messengers of bad news will be held responsible for the battlefield failures.

The Russian military’s stumbles have eroded trust between Mr. Putin and his Ministry of Defense. While Mr. Shoigu had been considered one of the few advisers Mr. Putin confided in, the prosecution of the war in Ukraine has damaged the relationship.

Mr. Putin has put two top intelligence officials under house arrest for providing poor intelligence ahead of the invasion, something that may have further contributed to the climate of fear.

With evidence of Mr. Putin’s frustration growing, the United States has in recent weeks been building up an intelligence case that he had not been getting accurate assessments from the Ministry of Defense and other senior officials. The U.S. officials believe that Mr. Putin is continuing to be misled and that senior advisers are unwilling to tell the truth.

What American intelligence sources there might be in the Kremlin is a tightly held secret. But since Russia began its troop buildup along Ukraine’s borders last year, U.S. intelligence officials have accurately predicted Mr. Putin’s moves.

The declassified information was reported earlier on Wednesday by The Associated Press.

Russian forces announced a shift in their posture around Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, on Tuesday, though American officials voiced skepticism that Russia was stopping its attacks as a peace gesture. Rather, some believe the moves are a further sign that Russia is adjusting its failing strategy.It is also possible that the shifting strategy is a sign of dysfunction and miscommunication in the upper ranks of the Russian Defense Ministry.


It's reasonable to assume, given the rumors of him punishing military officers, that this is occurring to some degree.

No telling if it's enough to seriously hamper the government's capacity to make decisions.


I just found the level that the NYT/US intelligence community are reporting to be interesting. Specifically the bit about conscripts. Given the size of the deployment to Ukraine and the structure of the Russian armed forces it would be hard for Russia not to use conscripts in the operation, especially as replacements are needed to bring units back up to fighting strength after combat losses.

For obvious domestic political reasons Putin probably wanted to avoid conscripts serving, and being killed, in the invasion.

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Novus America
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Postby Novus America » Wed Mar 30, 2022 1:42 pm

Spirit of Hope wrote:Grain of salt, but NYT reporting that Putin is receiving misinformation from his subordinates, including on details like the deployment of conscripts, military progress and economic damages.

WASHINGTON — President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has been misinformed by his advisers about the Russian military’s struggles in Ukraine, according to declassified U.S. intelligence.

The intelligence, according to multiple U.S. officials, shows what appears to be growing tension between Mr. Putin and the Ministry of Defense, including with the Russian defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, who was once among the most trusted members of the Kremlin’s inner circle.

Speaking in Algiers, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken acknowledged Mr. Putin had been given less than truthful information from his advisers.

“With regard to President Putin, look, what I can tell you is this, and I said this before, one of the Achilles' heel of autocracies is that you don’t have people in those systems who speak truth to power or who have the ability to speak truth to power,” Mr. Blinken said. “And I think that is something that we’re seeing in Russia.”

Other American officials have said that Mr. Putin’s rigid isolation during the pandemic and willingness to publicly rebuke advisers who do not share his views have created a degree of wariness, or even fear, in senior ranks of the Russian military. Officials believe that Mr. Putin is getting incomplete or overly optimistic reports about the progress of Russian forces

Mr. Putin seemed genuinely unaware that the Russian military had been using conscripts in Ukraine, and that drafted soldiers were among those killed in action, according to the U.S. officials. Mr. Putin’s ignorance showed “a clear breakdown in the flow of accurate information to the Russian president,” according to a U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the declassified, but still sensitive, material. There “is now persistent tension” between Mr. Putin and the Defense Ministry, the official said.

The American intelligence assessment also said that Mr. Putin had an incomplete understanding about how damaging Western sanctions had been on the Russian economy, officials said.

The war continues to go poorly for Russian forces. Ukraine’s military has not only held its own but also begun counterattacking. Some U.S. officials believe that senior Russian officials are wary of delivering truthful assessments — potentially afraid that the messengers of bad news will be held responsible for the battlefield failures.

The Russian military’s stumbles have eroded trust between Mr. Putin and his Ministry of Defense. While Mr. Shoigu had been considered one of the few advisers Mr. Putin confided in, the prosecution of the war in Ukraine has damaged the relationship.

Mr. Putin has put two top intelligence officials under house arrest for providing poor intelligence ahead of the invasion, something that may have further contributed to the climate of fear.

With evidence of Mr. Putin’s frustration growing, the United States has in recent weeks been building up an intelligence case that he had not been getting accurate assessments from the Ministry of Defense and other senior officials. The U.S. officials believe that Mr. Putin is continuing to be misled and that senior advisers are unwilling to tell the truth.

What American intelligence sources there might be in the Kremlin is a tightly held secret. But since Russia began its troop buildup along Ukraine’s borders last year, U.S. intelligence officials have accurately predicted Mr. Putin’s moves.

The declassified information was reported earlier on Wednesday by The Associated Press.

Russian forces announced a shift in their posture around Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, on Tuesday, though American officials voiced skepticism that Russia was stopping its attacks as a peace gesture. Rather, some believe the moves are a further sign that Russia is adjusting its failing strategy.It is also possible that the shifting strategy is a sign of dysfunction and miscommunication in the upper ranks of the Russian Defense Ministry.


It is almost certainly true, to some degree. This is a common problem in late stage dictatorships.
Especially with a leader as paranoid and isolated as Putin, but such paranoia and isolation are also the common outcome of dictatorship.

Nobody wants to report failures for fear of being punished, and there are no independent institutions left, the leader relies on information from yes men, who have every incentive to lie.

A system built on lies cuts both ways. It lies to you, you lie to it, so it believes its own lies and neither you or it can fully separate the truth from the lies.
Even when it wants the truth it cannot get the truth and it can no longer differentiate between the truth and its own lies.

This is the importance of independent institutions that can call out those in power. But Russia was never big on those.
___|_|___ _|__*__|_

Zombie Ike/Teddy Roosevelt 2020.

Novus America represents my vision of an awesome Atompunk near future United States of America expanded to the entire North American continent, Guyana and the Philippines. The population would be around 700 million.
Think something like prewar Fallout, minus the bad stuff.

Politically I am an independent. I support what is good for the country, which means I cannot support either party.

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The Huskar Social Union
Khan of Spam
 
Posts: 63286
Founded: Apr 04, 2012
Liberal Democratic Socialists

Postby The Huskar Social Union » Wed Mar 30, 2022 1:42 pm

Tarsonis wrote:
United Valik wrote:Ah, lying to the Boss. That fine old Russian/Soviet custom, very old indeed.


3.6 Roentgen. not great not terrible.

"I um, I walked around the exterior of Kharkov. I think there are T-90s being towed away by Farmers on Tractors"
"You didn't see T-90s being towed away"
"I did-
"You didnt. YOU DIDNT! BECAUSE THEY ARE NOT THERE!"
Irish Nationalist from Belfast ■■■ / Leftwing / Atheist / Re-arm Europe
"I never thought in terms of being a leader, i thought very simply in terms of helping people" - John Hume 1937 - 2020



I like Miniature painting, Tanks, Horse Girl racing (apparently), Video games and most importantly Cheese.


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Novus America
Post Czar
 
Posts: 38385
Founded: Jun 02, 2014
Ex-Nation

Postby Novus America » Wed Mar 30, 2022 1:48 pm

The North Polish Union wrote:The ruble is the best-performing currency of March.

"Analysts, however, say the recovery in the ruble suggests the impact of the West’s economic sanctions are much lower than anticipated initially. “The sanctions and curbs had created insolvency risks for the Russian economy, leading to a big sell-off in the ruble.

The economic stress has, however, lessened considerably as European countries continue to buy oil and gas from Russia, and major emerging markets including China continue to trade with Russia,” said Dhananjay Sinha, managing director and chief strategist, JM Finance Institutional Equity."


Unfortunately that is the inevitable outcome of the “we sanction everything except the most important thing”.
Long term though Russia still has a problem because Europe has finally awoken to the fact that Russia gas is literally and figuratively toxic.

And it might be sooner than later based on the Rouble demand issue.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/03/30/ger ... ussia.html

Sanctions on Russia will never work as long as oil and gas stay exempt.
Hopefully though that is not forever. Europe is scrambling to cut back on Russian oil and gas.
But it will take years most likely.
___|_|___ _|__*__|_

Zombie Ike/Teddy Roosevelt 2020.

Novus America represents my vision of an awesome Atompunk near future United States of America expanded to the entire North American continent, Guyana and the Philippines. The population would be around 700 million.
Think something like prewar Fallout, minus the bad stuff.

Politically I am an independent. I support what is good for the country, which means I cannot support either party.

User avatar
Novus America
Post Czar
 
Posts: 38385
Founded: Jun 02, 2014
Ex-Nation

Postby Novus America » Wed Mar 30, 2022 2:00 pm

Actually it turns out Russia folded:
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 022-03-30/
Gas and oil will not be required to be paid in roubles after all.

Russia bluffed, Europe called it, Russia backed down.

We should be so afraid of calling Russia’s bluffs.
___|_|___ _|__*__|_

Zombie Ike/Teddy Roosevelt 2020.

Novus America represents my vision of an awesome Atompunk near future United States of America expanded to the entire North American continent, Guyana and the Philippines. The population would be around 700 million.
Think something like prewar Fallout, minus the bad stuff.

Politically I am an independent. I support what is good for the country, which means I cannot support either party.

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Ostroeuropa
Khan of Spam
 
Posts: 61019
Founded: Jun 14, 2006
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Ostroeuropa » Wed Mar 30, 2022 2:17 pm

Russia has deliberately destroyed 50,000 tonnes of food in a recent attack. Roughly 50,000,000 kilograms.

It was about a months supply for everyone in the capital.

This is a warcrime incidentally, and a good example of what we were discussing earlier in terms of distinction between generals ordering artillery strikes and individual soldiers slapping eachother about a bit. The culpability is different, but so is the absolute scale of the atrocity.
Last edited by Ostroeuropa on Wed Mar 30, 2022 2:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Ostro.MOV

There is an out of control trolley speeding towards Jeremy Bentham, who is tied to the track. You can pull the lever to cause the trolley to switch tracks, but on the other track is Immanuel Kant. Bentham is clutching the only copy in the universe of The Critique of Pure Reason. Kant is clutching the only copy in the universe of The Principles of Moral Legislation. Both men are shouting at you that they have recently started to reconsider their ethical stances.

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HISPIDA
Postmaster-General
 
Posts: 12802
Founded: Jun 21, 2021
Ex-Nation

Postby HISPIDA » Wed Mar 30, 2022 2:18 pm

Ostroeuropa wrote:Russia has deliberately destroyed 50,000 tonnes of food in a recent attack. Roughly 50,000,000 kilograms.

It was about a months supply for everyone in the capital.

i'm shocked. shocked! well, not that shocked.

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Ostroeuropa
Khan of Spam
 
Posts: 61019
Founded: Jun 14, 2006
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Ostroeuropa » Wed Mar 30, 2022 2:20 pm

Hispida wrote:
Ostroeuropa wrote:Russia has deliberately destroyed 50,000 tonnes of food in a recent attack. Roughly 50,000,000 kilograms.

It was about a months supply for everyone in the capital.

i'm shocked. shocked! well, not that shocked.


The fact they're just openly doing war crimes is certainly something. I honestly think we should inform those who abstained that if they do not get on board with removing Russia from the council, the western powers will resign from the UN and form a new one, with those nations as well as Russia permanently excluded by the charter (And membership in both prohibited). It is not a world government. It is a series of treaties which can be withdrawn from at our leisure. The fact of the matter is that the western powers have the influence and clout to drag most of the world slowly along with us if it's necessary.

Simply give a firm ultimatum to China and India and so on that it is us or Russia. They can either get on board with international cooperation, or they can be barred from doing so for the rest of time.
Last edited by Ostroeuropa on Wed Mar 30, 2022 2:22 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Ostro.MOV

There is an out of control trolley speeding towards Jeremy Bentham, who is tied to the track. You can pull the lever to cause the trolley to switch tracks, but on the other track is Immanuel Kant. Bentham is clutching the only copy in the universe of The Critique of Pure Reason. Kant is clutching the only copy in the universe of The Principles of Moral Legislation. Both men are shouting at you that they have recently started to reconsider their ethical stances.

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