Coronavirus Thread IV: Legends, Laments and Lockdowns

[San Lumen]

Im not a travel agent. I work for various museums and work with and collaborate with the entertainment industry. I’ve even done some acting in recent years

Well? Many museums offer self guided so that area is not untouchable. Some people like a person so that won't be fully automated. Now performance stuff? We are a ways away before that can happen.

Sadly I got laid off from my job with no prospect of returning anytime soon and the other thing I don’t expect to survive if all this lasts as long as some people say it might.

[Shanghai industrial complex]

Well? Many museums offer self guided so that area is not untouchable. Some people like a person so that won't be fully automated. Now performance stuff? We are a ways away before that can happen.

Sadly I got laid off from my job with no prospect of returning anytime soon and the other thing I don’t expect to survive if all this lasts as long as some people say it might.

WTF....so sad

[San Lumen]

They will be available to the world for free or at a low price.China announced it at WHO and the government will pay.

That's great, IF China is first. Europe and most other countries won't be able to find a reason to refuse it.

The US however, well you know they're filthy with China about anything and everything. Maybe it's just externalizing their problems, but whatever the reason they have enormous distrust of China now. If it looks like just another six months until their own vaccine is ready, they will resist the Chinese one. On safety grounds most likely, but the real reason would be refusing to admit they lost the "vaccine race".

It would be beyond stupid to refuse a vaccine that Europe and other countries are using

[San Lumen]

Sadly I got laid off from my job with no prospect of returning anytime soon and the other thing I don’t expect to survive if all this lasts as long as some people say it might.

WTF....so sad

Tell me about it. The city that gave me everything took it all away and I returned to the small town I came from. Hopefully I can leave it again soon. I get I’m not the only one I’m that boat. I know plenty of others

[Shanghai industrial complex]

That's great, IF China is first. Europe and most other countries won't be able to find a reason to refuse it.

The US however, well you know they're filthy with China about anything and everything. Maybe it's just externalizing their problems, but whatever the reason they have enormous distrust of China now. If it looks like just another six months until their own vaccine is ready, they will resist the Chinese one. On safety grounds most likely, but the real reason would be refusing to admit they lost the "vaccine race".

It would be beyond stupid to refuse a vaccine that Europe and other countries are using

The EU has bought vaccines in advance from some European companies.Bill Gates joined the project and invested $1.2 billion.China's vaccines will be given priority to third world countries in Africa and South America.It will take many years to produce hundreds of millions of vaccines.

[San Lumen]

It would be beyond stupid to refuse a vaccine that Europe and other countries are using

The EU has bought vaccines in advance from some European companies.Bill Gates joined the project and invested $1.2 billion.China's vaccines will be given priority to third world countries in Africa and South America.It will take many years to produce hundreds of millions of vaccines.

I would hope all continents get it at the same time. Some companies are doing production while testing so we don’t have to wait many years

[The Black Forrest]

Well? Many museums offer self guided so that area is not untouchable. Some people like a person so that won't be fully automated. Now performance stuff? We are a ways away before that can happen.

Sadly I got laid off from my job with no prospect of returning anytime soon and the other thing I don’t expect to survive if all this lasts as long as some people say it might.

Oh you will. I am approaching a year. The covid money was helping. Of course the repubs think I am trying to avoid work because of it......

[The Black Forrest]

So hospital data will now be routed to DC before the CDC.

Hmmm. Those really aren't covid cases! See the pandemic is declining!!!!!

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/14/politics ... index.html

[Nobel Hobos 2]

So hospital data will now be routed to DC before the CDC.

Hmmm. Those really aren't covid cases! See the pandemic is declining!!!!!

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/14/politics ... index.html

The Times said hospitals are to begin reporting the data to HHS on Wednesday, noting also that the "database that will receive new information is not open to the public, which could affect the work of scores of researchers, modelers and health officials who rely on C.D.C. data to make projections and crucial decisions."

...so there will be a delay before the CDC gets it, while HHS censor some of the information. That's just great.

[Diahon]

So hospital data will now be routed to DC before the CDC.

Hmmm. Those really aren't covid cases! See the pandemic is declining!!!!!

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/14/politics ... index.html

Everybody shall now die for Trump!!! MAGA, motherfuckers!!!

Worship Trump and die or die!!!

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

[Salandriagado]

Yes. Regardless of whether the vaccine is approved, they'll continue following up those people for data on long-term immunity.

It won’t be ready till October 2022?

No. Read the thread. Regardless of when the approval happens, they'll still want to follow up the study group to test for long-term immunity.

[Salandriagado]

The safety regulations are there specifically to screen for potentially dangerous side effects, like spontaneous cardiac arrest. For somebody who has repeatedly used the phrase "let's not make the cure worse than the disease", one would think you could understand.

Social distancing will likely have to be maintained for a not-insignificant amount of that time, though methinks stay at home orders and other total shutdowns will become more infrequent as communities adapt to better maintain distancing without those measures.

if we have social distancing until then my industry dies.

If we don't, then lots of people die, and your industry dies.

[Salandriagado]

From one update every few weeks, Cambridge now seems to be updating their UK modelling almost continuously. A lot of good news in this update:

1. First, the big headline one: R_t estimates dropping: the medians were all at or close to 1 in the last update, now centred around 0.9. This is despite a loosening of restrictions.
2. Less obviously, the attack rate profile has shifted. They're still estimating <20% in all areas, so nothing remotely close to herd immunity, but check that age profile: at one point, this was pretty well flat. Looks very much like we did actually get our arses in gear after the early days as regards protecting our elderly population. Anecdotally, my friends who work in care homes say that they've gone from basically-weekly outbreaks down to not having seen so much as a suspected case in months.
3. They still need to use scientific notation to write down just how tiny the risk to young children is. This modelling has been on the "high IFR/low R" end of things throughout, and that pattern continues: they haven't shifted their overall IFR prediction from 1.3% in a while.
4. Daily deaths expected to continue falling over the next couple of weeks, dropping below 50 next weekend.
5. The probability that R_t is greater than 1 is now well under 50% in all regions, with some in the single-digits.

[Diahon]

this is for the immunologically literate:

how high are the chances of this virus mutating to affect previously minimally affected age groups in those places where the spread of this pandemic has gone out of control?

say, like the united states... fucking hell, trump... or the philippines... what the fuck, duts?

[Salandriagado]

this is for the immunologically literate:

how high are the chances of this virus mutating to affect previously minimally affected age groups in those places where the spread of this pandemic has gone out of control?

say, like the united states... fucking hell, trump... or the philippines... what the fuck, duts?

Very low, and even if it does, not in the way that you're thinking. Viruses don't mutate en masse. It's possible that one virus somewhere will mutate in such a way, but at that point, it then has to spread through the population - a population that's being primed with immunity by the un-mutated version that's got a massive head start on spread, while likely having a disadvantage in spread rates (a good chunk of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 is driven by people who are minimally effected walking around while infected, and such a variant would lose that advantage).

[Kannap]

in vitro, in a tube like was talked about in the article
in vivo in living animals (including humans)

And yes, it likely will be fast tracked, which means it will take a couple of years rather then 5 or more. They might be allowed to skip animal trials and go right to human trials.

Why does it have to take years?

Do you want a vaccine that fixes the coronavirus problem or do you want a vaccine that might not and might also created 50 new problems?

[Kannap]

Well? Many museums offer self guided so that area is not untouchable. Some people like a person so that won't be fully automated. Now performance stuff? We are a ways away before that can happen.

Sadly I got laid off from my job with no prospect of returning anytime soon and the other thing I don’t expect to survive if all this lasts as long as some people say it might.

You're chances of survival are much better if they don't make a vaccine overnight

[Nobel Hobos 2]

3. They still need to use scientific notation to write down just how tiny the risk to young children is. This modelling has been on the "high IFR/low R" end of things throughout, and that pattern continues: they haven't shifted their overall IFR prediction from 1.3% in a while.

Would this justify returning young children to school?

[Nobel Hobos 2]

So hospital data will now be routed to DC before the CDC.

Hmmm. Those really aren't covid cases! See the pandemic is declining!!!!!

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/14/politics ... index.html

Everybody shall now die for Trump!!! MAGA, motherfuckers!!!

Worship Trump and die or die!!!

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

It's like you didn't read the article at all.

It was about medical centers being required to report first to the HHS, then they pass it on to CDC (with some delay I think, also edited).

[Thermodolia]

That’s not what he’s saying. The vaccine could be approved for use next year but they are required to continue to follow up with the test subjects

And that means it wont be ready to be used for widespread use until then?

No that’s not what it means.

[Thermodolia]

Emm...actually, there are three in China in phase three and three in phase two.The PLA has been vaccinated with a kind vaccines of these.

Good maybe one of those will used worldwide first. Hopefully by the end of the year. I don't think even Trump would be dumb enough to ban a vaccine from China from the US but at this point anything is possible since he's obsessed with America First.

The US already can’t use medicine made in other countries. This isn’t something Trump did but something that’s been around since the 70s.

Even if the Chinese got a vaccine first the US would still have to test it.

[Thermodolia]

That's great, IF China is first. Europe and most other countries won't be able to find a reason to refuse it.

The US however, well you know they're filthy with China about anything and everything. Maybe it's just externalizing their problems, but whatever the reason they have enormous distrust of China now. If it looks like just another six months until their own vaccine is ready, they will resist the Chinese one. On safety grounds most likely, but the real reason would be refusing to admit they lost the "vaccine race".

It would be beyond stupid to refuse a vaccine that Europe and other countries are using

We’ve done it before with other drugs and actually ended up protecting millions of Americans because we insisted on testing it before hand.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

Good maybe one of those will used worldwide first. Hopefully by the end of the year. I don't think even Trump would be dumb enough to ban a vaccine from China from the US but at this point anything is possible since he's obsessed with America First.

The US already can’t use medicine made in other countries. This isn’t something Trump did but something that’s been around since the 70s.

Even if the Chinese got a vaccine first the US would still have to test it.

It would be beyond stupid to refuse a vaccine that Europe and other countries are using

We’ve done it before with other drugs and actually ended up protecting millions of Americans because we insisted on testing it before hand.

For example?

Sounds like something intended to protect US Pharma rather than US patients.

[Thermodolia]

The US already can’t use medicine made in other countries. This isn’t something Trump did but something that’s been around since the 70s.

Even if the Chinese got a vaccine first the US would still have to test it.

We’ve done it before with other drugs and actually ended up protecting millions of Americans because we insisted on testing it before hand.

For example?

Sounds like something intended to protect US Pharma rather than US patients.

People like this lady helped protect Americans from drugs like these

[Rojava Free State]

Everybody shall now die for Trump!!! MAGA, motherfuckers!!!

Worship Trump and die or die!!!

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

It's like you didn't read the article at all.

It was about medical centers being required to report first to the HHS, then they pass it on to CDC (with some delay I think, also edited).

Idk its sketchy as hell that theyre telling them not to report directly to the CDC.

I wouldn't be surprised if Trump went full Wuhan and reported less deaths than there actually were just to downplay the virus.