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by Ifreann » Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:36 pm
by Albrenia » Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:38 pm
Ifreann wrote:Video has emerged of Tara Reade's mother phoning in to Larry King in 1993 to ask how her daughter might deal with "problems" she had with a prominent senator other than going to the press.
But you know, "problems" could be anything. This doesn't definitively prove that Biden sexually assaulted Tara Reade. No court would convict him based on an anonymous phone call to a talk show. Phrases you should all familiarise yourselves with, because I'm betting we'll hear them until the end of the Biden campaign.
by The World Capitalist Confederation » Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:39 pm
Valrifell wrote:Duvniask wrote:Anyone who deals in statistics should knows about null-hypotheses, which as a rule assume no significance*, and that they are usually rejected when probability is estimated to be lower than 5% from a normal distribution (in this case, the sampling distribution of exit polls, assuming they are randomized).
*In this case, assumes no significant difference between the poll and the election result.
Also, using basic rules of probability for independent events, we multiply the chances of the event occurring with itself by each time it did. So if the exit polls had a ≤5% chance of being off each time, and that happened 5 times, then the probability of that happening is 0.055 = 0.0000003125 or 0.00003125%. In other words, not freaking likely.
A poll with a margin of error of, say, 3% and a 95% confidence interval, will tell you that the true value is within 3% of the estimate with 95% probability.
Let's say a hypothetical poll estimated 45% support for Sanders, margin of error 3%. Then we'd be able to say there's a 95% probability of the true population value being +/- 3 percentage points from 45%. The 95% confidence interval would thus be [0.42; 0.48]. If the actual result was 35% Sanders, then something would be very wrong here, either with the poll or the results themselves, because there was only a 5% chance of the results being more than 3 percentage points off (in our hypothetical example they were 10 percentage points off).
Also, the margin of error is dependent on the sample size, n, as it is calculated from multiplying the given critical value with the standard error (which contains the sample size). It is already taken into consideration. A smaller sample size will yield a larger standard error, which in turn yields a larger margin of error.
I know how MoE is calculated and what the means, that wasn't what my question was directed at.
by Valrifell » Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:39 pm
Ifreann wrote:Video has emerged of Tara Reade's mother phoning in to Larry King in 1993 to ask how her daughter might deal with "problems" she had with a prominent senator other than going to the press.
But you know, "problems" could be anything. This doesn't definitively prove that Biden sexually assaulted Tara Reade. No court would convict him based on an anonymous phone call to a talk show. Phrases you should all familiarise yourselves with, because I'm betting we'll hear them until the end of the Biden campaign.
by Valrifell » Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:41 pm
by The World Capitalist Confederation » Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:43 pm
by Valrifell » Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:45 pm
The World Capitalist Confederation wrote:Valrifell wrote:
I know how MoE is calculated and what the means, that wasn't what my question was directed at.
What I am saying is that, let's say, there were five elections in which one candidate was off by 5% from the exit polling. Again, 0.055 = 0.00003125%.
In short, I think we'd need to take a look at exit polling vs state results and do that for every single state so far.
by Valrifell » Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:47 pm
The World Capitalist Confederation wrote:Just looked at 538 for Super Tuesday.
It's some shady shit, particularly with Texas.
by The World Capitalist Confederation » Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:49 pm
Valrifell wrote:The World Capitalist Confederation wrote:What I am saying is that, let's say, there were five elections in which one candidate was off by 5% from the exit polling. Again, 0.055 = 0.00003125%.
In short, I think we'd need to take a look at exit polling vs state results and do that for every single state so far.
That's not what you said originally, but okay.
Also note that multiplying probabilities together is only valid if the events are independent, and I'm quite hesitant to say that election primaries are disjoint from one another like a coin flip is, and it makes sense that the combinatorics involved would be a smidge more complex than that.
Conveniently, CNN has all the exit polls one could want. I'd figure I'd share this data as we trudge through together on this magical journey.
by Ifreann » Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:57 pm
Albrenia wrote:Ifreann wrote:Video has emerged of Tara Reade's mother phoning in to Larry King in 1993 to ask how her daughter might deal with "problems" she had with a prominent senator other than going to the press.
But you know, "problems" could be anything. This doesn't definitively prove that Biden sexually assaulted Tara Reade. No court would convict him based on an anonymous phone call to a talk show. Phrases you should all familiarise yourselves with, because I'm betting we'll hear them until the end of the Biden campaign.
Is there a way someone can waive the statute of limitations on something? This really needs legitimate investigating or else it creates huge problems for the coming election.
by Uiiop » Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:23 pm
Ifreann wrote:Albrenia wrote:
Is there a way someone can waive the statute of limitations on something? This really needs legitimate investigating or else it creates huge problems for the coming election.
To the best of my knowledge no such option exists. But the statue of limitations pertains only to prosecutions. An investigation could proceed regardless, but that would be pretty unusual, and there would be big questions about who would conduct this investigation and to whom they would report.
by Cannot think of a name » Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:24 pm
Ifreann wrote:Albrenia wrote:
Is there a way someone can waive the statute of limitations on something? This really needs legitimate investigating or else it creates huge problems for the coming election.
To the best of my knowledge no such option exists. But the statue of limitations pertains only to prosecutions. An investigation could proceed regardless, but that would be pretty unusual, and there would be big questions about who would conduct this investigation and to whom they would report.
The Metropolitan Police Department of the District of Columbia is actively investigating the complaint against Joe Biden brought by Tara Reade, the woman who accused Biden of sexually assaulting her in 1993, despite her allegation being impossible to prosecute since it is past the statute of limitations.
“This is an active, ongoing investigation, and there are no further details to provide at this time,” a Metropolitan Police Department spokesperson told the Washington Examiner Tuesday regarding Reade’s case. “Cases that are handled by the Metropolitan Police Department’s Sexual Assault Unit go through a multi-review prior to being assigned a disposition. This case is progressing through the review process.”
The investigation remaining open, despite the alleged incident occurring past the statute of limitations, struck multiple experts as highly unusual.
On April 9, Reade filed an incident report with the D.C. police that said she “disclosed that she was the victim of a sexual assault which was committed by Subject-2 in 1993." Reade has confirmed that Subject-2 is Joe Biden, 77, who was a Delaware senator from 1973-2009 before becoming President Barack Obama's vice president.
Reade, 56, said that she filed an incident report for “safety reasons,” for the purpose of establishing a paper trail in case “something happened to me” and to show that she is serious about her allegation since it is illegal to make a false police report. Since coming forward with her allegations against Biden, she regularly receives threatening and vulgar messages, she told the Washington Examiner.
Because the incident is past the statute of limitations, she told the Washington Examiner that she expected the police to do no more than note her complaint and not investigate it. Reade told the Washington Examiner that she has no plans to sue Biden in civil court, where D.C. has removed the statute of limitations on sex crimes.
The Biden presidential campaign announced on Wednesday that it would refund a $2,800 donation comedian Louis C.K., who has been accused of multiple instances of sexual misconduct.
The donation was made on March 4, according to Federal Election Commission records. That was one day after Biden’s sweeping Super Tuesday victories that put him on a path to defeat progressive rival Senator Bernie Sanders (I., Vt.).
by Free Ward Marchers » Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:41 pm
Cannot think of a name wrote:Ifreann wrote:To the best of my knowledge no such option exists. But the statue of limitations pertains only to prosecutions. An investigation could proceed regardless, but that would be pretty unusual, and there would be big questions about who would conduct this investigation and to whom they would report.
The sources for this lean in a particular direction but that seems to be a rating of newsworthiness rather than someone making something up, so excuse the use of the Examiner...The Metropolitan Police Department of the District of Columbia is actively investigating the complaint against Joe Biden brought by Tara Reade, the woman who accused Biden of sexually assaulting her in 1993, despite her allegation being impossible to prosecute since it is past the statute of limitations.
“This is an active, ongoing investigation, and there are no further details to provide at this time,” a Metropolitan Police Department spokesperson told the Washington Examiner Tuesday regarding Reade’s case. “Cases that are handled by the Metropolitan Police Department’s Sexual Assault Unit go through a multi-review prior to being assigned a disposition. This case is progressing through the review process.”
The investigation remaining open, despite the alleged incident occurring past the statute of limitations, struck multiple experts as highly unusual.
On April 9, Reade filed an incident report with the D.C. police that said she “disclosed that she was the victim of a sexual assault which was committed by Subject-2 in 1993." Reade has confirmed that Subject-2 is Joe Biden, 77, who was a Delaware senator from 1973-2009 before becoming President Barack Obama's vice president.
Reade, 56, said that she filed an incident report for “safety reasons,” for the purpose of establishing a paper trail in case “something happened to me” and to show that she is serious about her allegation since it is illegal to make a false police report. Since coming forward with her allegations against Biden, she regularly receives threatening and vulgar messages, she told the Washington Examiner.
Because the incident is past the statute of limitations, she told the Washington Examiner that she expected the police to do no more than note her complaint and not investigate it. Reade told the Washington Examiner that she has no plans to sue Biden in civil court, where D.C. has removed the statute of limitations on sex crimes.
Also, weird thing caught in the net looking for clarification...Biden rejected a donation from Louis C.K.The Biden presidential campaign announced on Wednesday that it would refund a $2,800 donation comedian Louis C.K., who has been accused of multiple instances of sexual misconduct.
The donation was made on March 4, according to Federal Election Commission records. That was one day after Biden’s sweeping Super Tuesday victories that put him on a path to defeat progressive rival Senator Bernie Sanders (I., Vt.).
Again probably an issue of what was considered newsworthy, this time from National Review.
by Duvniask » Sun Apr 26, 2020 2:25 am
Valrifell wrote:The World Capitalist Confederation wrote:What I am saying is that, let's say, there were five elections in which one candidate was off by 5% from the exit polling. Again, 0.055 = 0.00003125%.
In short, I think we'd need to take a look at exit polling vs state results and do that for every single state so far.
That's not what you said originally, but okay.
Also note that multiplying probabilities together is only valid if the events are independent, and I'm quite hesitant to say that election primaries are disjoint from one another like a coin flip is, and it makes sense that the combinatorics involved would be a smidge more complex than that.
Conveniently, CNN has all the exit polls one could want. I'd figure I'd share this data as we trudge through together on this magical journey.
by Vassenor » Sun Apr 26, 2020 3:00 am
by Greater vakolicci haven » Sun Apr 26, 2020 4:05 am
Free Ward Marchers wrote:Cannot think of a name wrote:The sources for this lean in a particular direction but that seems to be a rating of newsworthiness rather than someone making something up, so excuse the use of the Examiner...
Also, weird thing caught in the net looking for clarification...Biden rejected a donation from Louis C.K.
Again probably an issue of what was considered newsworthy, this time from National Review.
you would think after the Harvey Weinstein debacle they would extend the statute for sexual assault
by Zurkerx » Sun Apr 26, 2020 7:35 am
by Celritannia » Sun Apr 26, 2020 7:38 am
Zurkerx wrote:Donald Trump set to fall back on xenophobia with re-election plan in tatters
I believe this is an opinion piece but I mean, he's already been doing that.
My DeviantArt Obey When you annoy a Celritannian U W0T M8?
| Citizen of Earth, Commonwealthian, European, British, Yorkshireman. Atheist, Environmentalist |
by Vassenor » Sun Apr 26, 2020 7:41 am
Zurkerx wrote:Donald Trump set to fall back on xenophobia with re-election plan in tatters
I believe this is an opinion piece but I mean, he's already been doing that.
by Pax Nerdvana » Sun Apr 26, 2020 7:47 am
by Celritannia » Sun Apr 26, 2020 7:58 am
Pax Nerdvana wrote:I finally got around to mailing my registration yesterday. Now I'm trying to figure out who to vote for that isn't Trump or Biden. Trump isn't terribly competent, and I don't really like Biden.
My DeviantArt Obey When you annoy a Celritannian U W0T M8?
| Citizen of Earth, Commonwealthian, European, British, Yorkshireman. Atheist, Environmentalist |
by Zurkerx » Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:01 am
by Telconi » Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:30 am
Celritannia wrote:Zurkerx wrote:Donald Trump set to fall back on xenophobia with re-election plan in tatters
I believe this is an opinion piece but I mean, he's already been doing that.
He has, which why I don't understand why people want to vote for him. Breaking America into sects rather than uniting people is never a good policy.
by South Odreria 2 » Sun Apr 26, 2020 10:04 am
Valrifell wrote:
Disregard whatever this poster says
by Corrian » Sun Apr 26, 2020 10:12 am
Post War America wrote:Inhorto wrote:
To both of these: in what way? I'm asking you to divorce your political leanings for a moment and consider her potential as a candidate. I believe it's objectively a good choice.
Her record includes the delightful action of locking people up for their kid's truancy, and standing against criminal justice reform, these are not good things.
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