Coronavirus Thread mark II: Official Apocalyptic Edition

[Nobel Hobos 2]

I still say this was more likely from the Republican Senate side not the Democratic House side.

Probably was, but couldn't the Democratic Senators just filibuster and threaten the Republicans with cutting out all corporate welfare?

They could pass one without corporate welfare and with a temporary UBI in the House, forcing it to go to contingency committee or whatever it's called.

Yes Democrats could have blocked the whole bill on behalf of dependent at-home college students. How well do you think that would have played, "Democrats play politics while the needy starve" etc

I'm not happy this happened, but it's the nature of compromise that neither side gets everything they want.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

So what I said days ago then, which you dismissed as impossible. I pretty much stopped reading there.

What did I dismissed as impossible?

Social distancing in queues, in Cuba.

[Greater Miami Shores]

Probably was, but couldn't the Democratic Senators just filibuster and threaten the Republicans with cutting out all corporate welfare?

They could pass one without corporate welfare and with a temporary UBI in the House, forcing it to go to contingency committee or whatever it's called.

Yes Democrats could have blocked the whole bill on behalf of dependent at-home college students. How well do you think that would have played, "Democrats play politics while the needy starve" etc

I'm not happy this happened, but it's the nature of compromise that neither side gets everything they want.

I have always stated Republicans and Democrats play politics too, it is not just Republicans.

[Greater Miami Shores]

What did I dismissed as impossible?

Social distancing in queues, in Cuba.

I never dismissed social distancing in Cuba, I said it is hard for Cubans to do which as I show on the Pic is not easy to do because their economic needs are greater than ours for obvious reasons, re read my original post above.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

Social distancing in queues, in Cuba.

I never dismissed social distancing in Cuba, I said it is hard for Cubans to do which as I show on the Pic is not easy to do because their economic needs are greater than ours for obvious reasons, re read my original post above.

The people in the pic are clearly not social-distancing, and why would then when there is limited shade available. But maybe now they will even if if means standing in the sun.

[Greater Miami Shores]

I never dismissed social distancing in Cuba, I said it is hard for Cubans to do which as I show on the Pic is not easy to do because their economic needs are greater than ours for obvious reasons, re read my original post above.

The people in the pic are clearly not social-distancing, and why would then when there is limited shade available. But maybe now they will even if if means standing in the sun.

The people in the pic not social distancing and standing in long lines is my point, they cant because their economic needs of finding all these products are greater than hours, these lines would stretch blocks in Cuba, which are not uncommon in Cuba under normal circumstances, this is a short line in Cuba by Cuban standards, I know because I used to be in them myself.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

The people in the pic are clearly not social-distancing, and why would then when there is limited shade available. But maybe now they will even if if means standing in the sun.

The people in the pic not social distancing and standing in long lines is my point, they cant because their economic needs of finding all these products are greater than hours, these lines would stretch blocks in Cuba, which are not uncommon in Cuba under normal circumstances, this is a short line in Cuba by Cuban standards, I know because I used to be in them myself.

I'm assuming the picture is old? People didn't social distance because they had no reason to (also hadn't been ordered to). You haven't demonstrated that they can't (because lines are long etc). You haven't demonstrated that they won't. At best, you've made an argument that it will be hard for them to do so.

[Rojava Free State]

https://www.instagram.com/tv/B-VqCBahfv ... ezozwstk6f

This is how I practice social distancing. I was helping my grandmother out with getting groceries and my friend Josh volunteered to get us some rice. He came by and brought three boxes with him. I really appreciate what he did for us.

[Diopolis]

CDC numbers today show a 1.72% fatality rate, up from the last time I ran the numbers, going solely off of officially confirmed cases.
But wait, there's more! Not every case is confirmed. An Icelandic study shows only half of people with the disease even get symptoms, making the real fatality rate .86%. That's leaving out how few cases out of the symptomatic are actually confirmed.
In any case, this is an increase in the coronavirus fatality rate, although it's still lower in the US than in Italy or China.

[Rojava Free State]

CDC numbers today show a 1.72% fatality rate, up from the last time I ran the numbers, going solely off of officially confirmed cases.
But wait, there's more! Not every case is confirmed. An Icelandic study shows only half of people with the disease even get symptoms, making the real fatality rate .86%. That's leaving out how few cases out of the symptomatic are actually confirmed.
In any case, this is an increase in the coronavirus fatality rate, although it's still lower in the US than in Italy or China.

When you pretend Trump doesn't exist, I would say I'm very proud of our response to COVID. There's alot we should have done earlier but we are treating this seriously and rising to the challenge.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

CDC numbers today show a 1.72% fatality rate, up from the last time I ran the numbers, going solely off of officially confirmed cases.
But wait, there's more! Not every case is confirmed. An Icelandic study shows only half of people with the disease even get symptoms, making the real fatality rate .86%. That's leaving out how few cases out of the symptomatic are actually confirmed.
In any case, this is an increase in the coronavirus fatality rate, although it's still lower in the US than in Italy or China.

I'm not offering any corrected number, I'm just questioning whether dividing total deaths by total cases gives "fatality rate". Surely some (most) of those cases are still infected and some (a few) of those might yet die?

Fatality rate is only known after the fact when cases have all resolved to either Recovered or Died. Though I'm sure there's some way to estimate it before then.

[Shanghai industrial complex]

CDC numbers today show a 1.72% fatality rate, up from the last time I ran the numbers, going solely off of officially confirmed cases.
But wait, there's more! Not every case is confirmed. An Icelandic study shows only half of people with the disease even get symptoms, making the real fatality rate .86%. That's leaving out how few cases out of the symptomatic are actually confirmed.
In any case, this is an increase in the coronavirus fatality rate, although it's still lower in the US than in Italy or China.

Well,0.86% is not mentioned in this article.I remember that 0.86% is the data of China except Wuhan.Because there are fewer patients in other areas, there are plenty of medical care and supplies......

[Shanghai industrial complex]

CDC numbers today show a 1.72% fatality rate, up from the last time I ran the numbers, going solely off of officially confirmed cases.
But wait, there's more! Not every case is confirmed. An Icelandic study shows only half of people with the disease even get symptoms, making the real fatality rate .86%. That's leaving out how few cases out of the symptomatic are actually confirmed.
In any case, this is an increase in the coronavirus fatality rate, although it's still lower in the US than in Italy or China.

I'm not offering any corrected number, I'm just questioning whether dividing total deaths by total cases gives "fatality rate". Surely some (most) of those cases are still infected and some (a few) of those might yet die?

Fatality rate is only known after the fact when cases have all resolved to either Recovered or Died. Though I'm sure there's some way to estimate it before then.

You know, the United States has finally started mass testing these days.The soaring number of confirmed cases has reduced mortality.It will take several days for the death toll to rise.

[Diopolis]

CDC numbers today show a 1.72% fatality rate, up from the last time I ran the numbers, going solely off of officially confirmed cases.
But wait, there's more! Not every case is confirmed. An Icelandic study shows only half of people with the disease even get symptoms, making the real fatality rate .86%. That's leaving out how few cases out of the symptomatic are actually confirmed.
In any case, this is an increase in the coronavirus fatality rate, although it's still lower in the US than in Italy or China.

I'm not offering any corrected number, I'm just questioning whether dividing total deaths by total cases gives "fatality rate". Surely some (most) of those cases are still infected and some (a few) of those might yet die?

Fatality rate is only known after the fact when cases have all resolved to either Recovered or Died. Though I'm sure there's some way to estimate it before then.

That would be my way to guesstimate it.

[Rojava Free State]

CDC numbers today show a 1.72% fatality rate, up from the last time I ran the numbers, going solely off of officially confirmed cases.
But wait, there's more! Not every case is confirmed. An Icelandic study shows only half of people with the disease even get symptoms, making the real fatality rate .86%. That's leaving out how few cases out of the symptomatic are actually confirmed.
In any case, this is an increase in the coronavirus fatality rate, although it's still lower in the US than in Italy or China.

Well,0.86% is not mentioned in this article.I remember that 0.86% is the data of China except Wuhan.Because there are fewer patients in other areas, there are plenty of medical care and supplies......

We know that 80% of people recover from COVID without issue, people who are definitely not me. The other 20% need medical care. What happens to the other 20% depends on the healthcare system in place. If they can all be taken care of, the death rate remains below 1%. If the system gets overwhelmed and/or sucks, it's more like 5-10%.

[Galactic Powers]

Well,0.86% is not mentioned in this article.I remember that 0.86% is the data of China except Wuhan.Because there are fewer patients in other areas, there are plenty of medical care and supplies......

We know that 80% of people recover from COVID without issue, people who are definitely not me. The other 20% need medical care. What happens to the other 20% depends on the healthcare system in place. If they can all be taken care of, the death rate remains below 1%. If the system gets overwhelmed and/or sucks, it's more like 5-10%.

Should i be relieved by that or terrified?

[Tinhampton]

Do you owe child support? No pseudo-UBI for you!

("The Debt Collection Improvement Act of 1996 (DCIA) authorizes the Secretary of the Treasury to collect past-due child support by the administrative offset of federal payments")

[Greater Miami Shores]

The people in the pic not social distancing and standing in long lines is my point, they cant because their economic needs of finding all these products are greater than hours, these lines would stretch blocks in Cuba, which are not uncommon in Cuba under normal circumstances, this is a short line in Cuba by Cuban standards, I know because I used to be in them myself.

I'm assuming the picture is old? People didn't social distance because they had no reason to (also hadn't been ordered to). You haven't demonstrated that they can't (because lines are long etc). You haven't demonstrated that they won't. At best, you've made an argument that it will be hard for them to do so.

The picture is not old, long lines under normal circumstances of over 60 years under the triumphs of the revolution and the Coronavirus crisis in Cuba are normal in Cuba. It is hard in Cuba to find products of food, medicines, detergent, toothpaste and toilet paper, Cubans spend hours each day trying to find and buy these products. They ask their Cuban American families and Cubans all over the world to send them these products and family remittances, before and during the Corona Virus crisis. We bought their cell phones for them they are now allowed to own, and recharge their cell phones, we pay for their internet connections. I am not making this post up. My last post on Cuba under the Corona Virus crisis for a while. Peace over and out.

[Diopolis]

CDC numbers today show a 1.72% fatality rate, up from the last time I ran the numbers, going solely off of officially confirmed cases.
But wait, there's more! Not every case is confirmed. An Icelandic study shows only half of people with the disease even get symptoms, making the real fatality rate .86%. That's leaving out how few cases out of the symptomatic are actually confirmed.
In any case, this is an increase in the coronavirus fatality rate, although it's still lower in the US than in Italy or China.

Well,0.86% is not mentioned in this article.I remember that 0.86% is the data of China except Wuhan.Because there are fewer patients in other areas, there are plenty of medical care and supplies......

The articles are just my sources for the data I did the math with.
If .86% was the data for China except Wuhan, that points to it as the "real" fatality rate- which means we're doing all right with our response to the virus.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

CDC numbers today show a 1.72% fatality rate, up from the last time I ran the numbers, going solely off of officially confirmed cases.
But wait, there's more! Not every case is confirmed. An Icelandic study shows only half of people with the disease even get symptoms, making the real fatality rate .86%. That's leaving out how few cases out of the symptomatic are actually confirmed.
In any case, this is an increase in the coronavirus fatality rate, although it's still lower in the US than in Italy or China.

Well,0.86% is not mentioned in this article.I remember that 0.86% is the data of China except Wuhan.Because there are fewer patients in other areas, there are plenty of medical care and supplies......

What Diopolis is doing there is concluding (from the Icelandic study) that for every case recorded by the CDC there is one other case not recorded because they never had symptoms and never got tested. So Dio has taken the number 1.72 and halved it.

It seems reasonable, if the Icelandic study is correct and also if Americans get infected without symptoms at the same rate as Icelanders do.

[Diopolis]

Well,0.86% is not mentioned in this article.I remember that 0.86% is the data of China except Wuhan.Because there are fewer patients in other areas, there are plenty of medical care and supplies......

What Diopolis is doing there is concluding (from the Icelandic study) that for every case recorded by the CDC there is one other case not recorded because they never had symptoms and never got tested. So Dio has taken the number 1.72 and halved it.

It seems reasonable, if the Icelandic study is correct and also if Americans get infected without symptoms at the same rate as Icelanders do.

The second one seems to me a bigger assumption than the first.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

I'm not offering any corrected number, I'm just questioning whether dividing total deaths by total cases gives "fatality rate". Surely some (most) of those cases are still infected and some (a few) of those might yet die?

Fatality rate is only known after the fact when cases have all resolved to either Recovered or Died. Though I'm sure there's some way to estimate it before then.

That would be my way to guesstimate it.

I think (tentatively) that you have to exclude data from the last two weeks, that being approximately how long it takes for cases to resolve. Unfortunately that would leave very little data to work with.

Usually I'm up for rough calculations based on publicly available data, but not now. Epidemiology is pretty hard!

[Vetalia]

The second one seems to me a bigger assumption than the first.

Iceland does have a much lower population density than the United States, so there are probably vast numbers of asymptomatic carriers already out there. We really need to do some analysis on the data from January and February regarding influenza-like illnesses...it would be interesting to see the mortality rate data from respiratory failure without influenza to get an idea of when this actually showed up. It was clearly already widespread enough by mid-February for Mardi Gras to be a major source of the current batch of cases.

[Shanghai industrial complex]

Well,0.86% is not mentioned in this article.I remember that 0.86% is the data of China except Wuhan.Because there are fewer patients in other areas, there are plenty of medical care and supplies......

We know that 80% of people recover from COVID without issue, people who are definitely not me. The other 20% need medical care. What happens to the other 20% depends on the healthcare system in place. If they can all be taken care of, the death rate remains below 1%. If the system gets overwhelmed and/or sucks, it's more like 5-10%.

That might make you feel better.If you are not an elderly person or have immune disorders, as a healthy adult, you are basically okay.Control your anxiety,Bad things always pass away

[Diopolis]

That would be my way to guesstimate it.

I think (tentatively) that you have to exclude data from the last two weeks, that being approximately how long it takes for cases to resolve. Unfortunately that would leave very little data to work with.

I'm not quite sure how you'd go about collecting data for that.
Hopefully, the lockdown measures currently going on will be enough to reduce new cases where we'll have relatively accurate numbers in a few weeks. If they're not, then that's bad news for the efficacy of lockdowns.