Rojava Free State wrote:If Syria wasn't broken by a civil war, this invasion would be almost impossible. They only could do this because they have lackies on the ground and a country that is divided.
Fuck me.
That's literally the only reason Turkey is getting into this. Bravo. I'm dead serious. That's exactly why Turkey is involved there. Do you actually think Turkey would have actually tried to get itself involved in a civil war in Syria that didn't exist? Because, you know, Erdoğan and Assad were very close, as in, vacationing together, prior to 2011. You either knew that or disregarded it, or you didn't know. My money is on the latter.
The only reason Turkey got itself involved in this mess was because Erdoğan figured he could shift the Alawite, pro-Iran and pro-Russian leadership at the head to one that was from the Muslim Brotherhood a la Mursi in Egypt, and keep the fellow in power as a compliant, pro-Turkish and pro-Western guy. Mind you, much of your lot was in with this plan, too, the whole deal with removing Assad and replacing him with the "mild Islamists" that could take the AKP as an example of democratic Islamism - remember, this was 2011-2013 and Erdoğan was still all the liberals' not-so-secret crush, since he wasn't pissing on your toes, just ours - up until ISIS became a serious thing.
Ironically, Erdoğan has been the most consistent through this, at least on a superficial level. Credit where it's due, so have Putin and the Iranians - they've never made secrets about their clear preference for Assad.
EDIT: Felt a need to elaborate.
When I say "Erdoğan figured", I never said he figured right. The state of affairs is evident: Assad survived, and the regime does not really look like it's going to fall anytime soon. Hell, the war has been going on for nearly a decade now. Turkey might emerge victorious from these skirmishes and this immediate conflict, but it's going to be the end of Erdoğan.
It genuinely feels odd, to look back eight or nine years and remember folks saying that this whole deal in Syria would be Erdoğan's end - it really does look that way.