UK Politics Thread XI: Boris' Big Bombastic Brexit Bash

[The New California Republic]

A poll of a 1,000 undergraduates says 74% are opposed to Brexit, and 53% prepared to vote tactically. I just hope they actually do get out to vote.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-50317693

Hopefully the fact that many young people didn't bother their arses to vote in the Brexit referendum acts as a wakeup call to them.

[The Huskar Social Union]

A poll of a 1,000 undergraduates says 74% are opposed to Brexit, and 53% prepared to vote tactically. I just hope they actually do get out to vote.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-50317693

Hopefully the fact that many young people didn't bother their arses to vote in the Brexit referendum acts as a wakeup call to them.

Hope so, but im expecting it to be a low turn out anyway.


Might be wrong tho

[Vassenor]

A poll of a 1,000 undergraduates says 74% are opposed to Brexit, and 53% prepared to vote tactically. I just hope they actually do get out to vote.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-50317693

Hopefully the fact that many young people didn't bother their arses to vote in the Brexit referendum acts as a wakeup call to them.

I mean running the maths a good chunk of the sample may well have been too young to vote in it.

[The New California Republic]

Hopefully the fact that many young people didn't bother their arses to vote in the Brexit referendum acts as a wakeup call to them.

I mean running the maths a good chunk of the sample may well have been too young to vote in it.

I was more meaning learning the lessons from it, regardless of if they could have voted in the referendum or not.

[The New California Republic]

A council that wrongly warned thousands of voters they would not be able to vote in the general election has been criticised for the blunder.

Swindon Borough Council admitted nearly 3,000 voters were contacted in error.

Residents were told in the letter they would be "removed from the Register of Electors" as they were "not entitled to remain registered" at their property.

The council has asked people to ignore the letter as it was sent "by mistake".

Originally it was thought the letters had been sent to 1,500 voters but the council has since said about 3,000 people were contacted.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-w ... e-50329491

[Andsed]

"Tory MP Candidate Said Women Should 'Keep Their Knickers On' During Rape Discussion"

The Conservative Party has picked a former BBC presenter, who once said women should keep their “knickers on” to avoid rape, as a parliamentary candidate in the general election.

Nick Conrad was chosen on Wednesday evening to stand for the Tories in the Broadland constituency in Norfolk.

The 34-year-old stood down as the breakfast host on BBC Radio Norfolk in order to seek the MP nomination.

...

In a 2014 radio conversation about footballer Ched Evans, Conrad suggested women were “partially responsible” for sexual assault.

Evans was originally convicted of a rape charge in May 2011. But the conviction was quashed and overturned at a retrial in 2016.

...

Conrad had said: “I think women need to be more aware of a man’s sexual desire.

“When you’re in that position that you are about to engage in sexual activity there’s a huge amount of energy in the male body.

There’s a huge amount of will and intent and it’s very difficult for many men to say no when they are whipped up into a bit of a storm.”

Conrad added: “It’s the old adage about if you yank a dog’s tail then don’t be surprised when it bites you.

“You can’t keep snakes in the garden and think they’ll only bite your neighbours.”

...

“What I’m trying to say is that women also have to understand that when a man’s given certain signals, he’ll wish to act upon them and if you don’t wish to give out the wrong signals, it’s best probably to keep your knickers on and not get into bed with him.”

Conrad later apologised for his comments and said they were “ill-judged” and said sorry “to anybody who was offended”.

Damn son this election is all about the controversies.

Well that is a big ole OOF.

[The New California Republic]

"Tory MP Candidate Said Women Should 'Keep Their Knickers On' During Rape Discussion"



Damn son this election is all about the controversies.

Well that is a big ole OOF.

It's actually doubly offensive, as it's heavily implying that it's common for men to have absolutely no self control whatsoever when it comes to sex, shown when he says that "there’s a huge amount of will and intent and it’s very difficult for many men to say no when they are whipped up into a bit of a storm.”

[The Archregimancy]

If anyone's curious, here's a full (spoilered) list of the seats where the LibDems, Greens, and Plaid Cymru will stand aside for each other:

The LDs and Greens are standing aside for Plaid Cymru in the following Welsh seats:

Arfon (Held)

Dwyfor Meirionnydd (Held)

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (Held)

Ynys Mon

Pontypridd

Caerphilly

Llanelli

The LDs are standing aside for the Greens in these English seats:

Brighton Pavilion (Held)

Isle of Wight

Bury St Edmunds

Bristol West

Stroud

Dulwich & West Norwood

Cannock Chase

Exeter

Forest of Dean

PC and the Greens are standing aside for the LDs in the following Welsh seats:

Brecon & Radnorshire (Held)

Cardiff Central

Montgomeryshire

The Greens are standing aside for the LDs in these English seats:
Bath (Held)

North Norfolk (Held)

Oxford West & Abingdon (Held)

South Cambridgeshire (Held)

Totnes (Held)

Twickenham (Held)

Westmorland & Lonsdale (Held)

Bermondsey & Old Southwark

Buckingham

Cheadle

Chelmsford

Chelsea & Fulham

Cheltenham

Chippenham

Esher & Walton

Finchley & Golders Green

Guildford

Harrogate

Hazel Grove

Hitchin & Harpenden

North Cornwall

Penistone & Stocksbridge

Portsmouth South

Richmond Park

Romsey & Southampton North

Rushcliffe

South East Cambridgeshire

South West Surrey

Southport

Taunton Deane

Thornbury & Yate

Tunbridge Wells

Wantage

Warrington South

Watford

Wells

Wimbledon

Winchester

Witney

York Outer

Note that this is not necessarily the same as a list of target seats for each party (where the seat is not already held). There is, of course, some overlap; but there are also seats excluded because two of the parties involved are the main contenders against each other (Ceredigion), or where the local parties seem to have been unwilling to go along with the deal (eg Yeovil, from what I understand).

[The Huskar Social Union]

If anyone's curious, here's a full (spoilered) list of the seats where the LibDems, Greens, and Plaid Cymru will stand aside for each other:

The LDS and Greens are standing aside for Plaid Cymru in the following Welsh seats:

Arfon (Held)

Dwyfor Meirionnydd (Held)

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (Held)

Ynys Mon

Pontypridd

Caerphilly

Llanelli

The LDs are standing aside for the Green in these English seats:

Brighton Pavilion (Held)

Isle of Wight

Bury St Edmunds

Bristol West

Stroud

Dulwich & West Norwood

Cannock Chase

Exeter

Forest of Dean

PC and the Green party are standing aside for the LDs in the following Welsh seats:

Brecon & Radnorshire (Held)

Cardiff Central

Montgomeryshire

The Greens are standing aside for the LDs in these English seats:
Bath (Held)

North Norfolk (Held)

Oxford West & Abingdon (Held)

South Cambridgeshire (Held)

Totnes (Held)

Twickenham (Held)

Westmorland & Lonsdale (Held)

Bermondsey & Old Southwark

Buckingham

Cheadle

Chelmsford

Chelsea & Fulham

Cheltenham

Chippenham

Esher & Walton

Finchley & Golders Green

Guildford

Harrogate

Hazel Grove

Hitchin & Harpenden

North Cornwall

Penistone & Stocksbridge

Portsmouth South

Richmond Park

Romsey & Southampton North

Rushcliffe

South East Cambridgeshire

South West Surrey

Southport

Taunton Deane

Thornbury & Yate

Tunbridge Wells

Wantage

Warrington South

Watford

Wells

Wimbledon

Winchester

Witney

York Outer

Note that this is not necessarily the same as a list of target seats for each party (where the seat is not already held). There is, of course, some overlap; but there are also seats excluded because two of the parties involved are the main contenders against each other (Ceredigion), or where the local parties seem to have been unwilling to go along with the deal (eg Yeovil, from what I understand).

Do the Greens really stand a chance of getting any where tho? Even with the potential extra votes

Speaking of, the Green Party NI has pulled out of West, East and North Belfast to help maximise the remain vote.

Im honestly conflicted about this kind of stuff, on one hand i would love it if the DUP lost seats, but on the other i hate these pacts that infest this place as they often always fuck over the smaller parties.

[Dumb Ideologies]

Now if only the Tories and Brexit leaderships would sign up for a murder-suicide pact...

[The Archregimancy]

If anyone's curious, here's a full (spoilered) list of the seats where the LibDems, Greens, and Plaid Cymru will stand aside for each other:

The LDS and Greens are standing aside for Plaid Cymru in the following Welsh seats:

Arfon (Held)

Dwyfor Meirionnydd (Held)

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (Held)

Ynys Mon

Pontypridd

Caerphilly

Llanelli

The LDs are standing aside for the Green in these English seats:

Brighton Pavilion (Held)

Isle of Wight

Bury St Edmunds

Bristol West

Stroud

Dulwich & West Norwood

Cannock Chase

Exeter

Forest of Dean

PC and the Green party are standing aside for the LDs in the following Welsh seats:

Brecon & Radnorshire (Held)

Cardiff Central

Montgomeryshire

The Greens are standing aside for the LDs in these English seats:
Bath (Held)

North Norfolk (Held)

Oxford West & Abingdon (Held)

South Cambridgeshire (Held)

Totnes (Held)

Twickenham (Held)

Westmorland & Lonsdale (Held)

Bermondsey & Old Southwark

Buckingham

Cheadle

Chelmsford

Chelsea & Fulham

Cheltenham

Chippenham

Esher & Walton

Finchley & Golders Green

Guildford

Harrogate

Hazel Grove

Hitchin & Harpenden

North Cornwall

Penistone & Stocksbridge

Portsmouth South

Richmond Park

Romsey & Southampton North

Rushcliffe

South East Cambridgeshire

South West Surrey

Southport

Taunton Deane

Thornbury & Yate

Tunbridge Wells

Wantage

Warrington South

Watford

Wells

Wimbledon

Winchester

Witney

York Outer

Note that this is not necessarily the same as a list of target seats for each party (where the seat is not already held). There is, of course, some overlap; but there are also seats excluded because two of the parties involved are the main contenders against each other (Ceredigion), or where the local parties seem to have been unwilling to go along with the deal (eg Yeovil, from what I understand).

Do the Greens really stand a chance of getting any where tho? Even with the potential extra votes

A good question.

I've had a quick look at the seats in question. All results are for 2017.

Brighton Pavilion: Currently held by the Greens (Caroline Lucas); the LibDems stood aside for Lucas in 2017, and likely would have done this time even without a deal. Lucas will almost certainly retain her seat regardless. So no real impact.

Isle of Wight: Held by Conservative Bob Seely with 51.3% of the vote; Greens third with 17.3%; LibDems fourth with 3.7% (note that this was a LibDem seat as recently as 2001). Unlikely to be any impact.

Bury St Edmunds: Held by Conservative Jo Churchill with 59.2% of the vote; LibDems third with 5.7%; Greens fourth with 4.2%. Unlikely to be any impact (though mildly interesting to see the LibDems standing down in a couple of seats where they finished marginally ahead of the Greens in 2017).

Bristol West: Held by Labour's magnificently named Thangam Debbonaire with 65.9% of the vote; Greens third with 12.9%; LibDems fourth with 7.3%. Unlikely to be any impact on the basis 2017 result; however, in 2015 Ms Debbonaire won the seat from the LibDems with only 35.7% of the vote, and the combined Green/LibDem share of the vote was 45.6% of the vote. Still, Debbonaire established such a strong personal vote between 2015 and 2017 that a loss is surely unlikely.

Stroud: Held by Labour's David Drew with 47% of the vote; it's a marginal seat where defeated Tory MP Neil Carmichael lost by only 687 votes in 2017. The LibDems were third with 3.2%; the Greens were fourth with 2.2%. Given both of the latter parties lost their deposits in 2017... almost certainly no impact.

Dulwich & West Norwood: Held by Labour's Helen Hayes with 69.6% of the vote (previously Tessa Jowell's seat); LibDems third with 8%; Greens fourth with 2.5%. Almost certainly no impact.

Cannock Chase: Held by Conservative Amanda Milling with 55% of the vote; both the LibDems and Greens nowhere with 1.7% and under 1000 votes. On the face of it, no impact. However, I have some personal connections to the area, and know that the Greens have done relatively well at the local council level recently. This may be more about increasing long-term local Green visibility in a seat associated with an important AONB rather than trying to win a parliamentary constituency. It makes me wonder if similar factors are in play in other seats on this list (ie, the Greens do well on the Bristol council, which may explain the Bristol West target; it's not about winning the seat, but rather about ).

Exeter: Held by Labour's Ben Bradshaw with 62% of the vote; LibDems third with 2.8%; Greens fourth with 1.9%. Almost certainly no impact.

Forest of Dean: Held by Conservative Mark Harper with 54.3% of the vote; LibDems third with 3.9%; Greens fourth with 2.4%.


Summed up, leaving aside Brighton Pavilion - already held by the Greens - there is no seat where the Unite To Remain deal stands any realistic chance of handing an extra seat to the Greens. Only in Bristol West would the combined Green / LibDem share of the vote have delivered the seat to the second-placed Greens in 2015; but the sitting Labour MP romped home in 2017. Only in Stroud did the sitting MP win less than 50% of the vote in 2017; an neither the Greens nor the LibDems were anywhere in that seat.

As noted under Cannock Chase, I suspect that - in at least some cases - this has more to do with raising the visibility of the Greens in seats/districts where they already have a presence at the local level in the hope that this will lead to greater success at the next local elections. So it's longer-term strategic rather than short-term tactical.

[Nakena]

The idea of an remainer coalition is quite smart, but will it be enough? Like how much additional seats could they get realistically?

[The Archregimancy]

The idea of an remainer coalition is quite smart, but will it be enough? Like how much additional seats could they get realistically?

With apologies, I'm not going to repeat the above analysis for all 60 seats!

However, this is the snap analysis from John Curtice; key point bolded:

"Actually just over one in three seats that the pact is now in place were won by Labour or were already held by Plaid or Greens or the Liberal Democrats. That narrows its scope.

"In quite a few of the seats that the Liberal Democrats either won against the Conservatives in 2017 or are quite close to the Conservatives this time around the Greens didn't fight last time anyway."

Curtice noted that people may not follow the recommendation of their party, and added that if polls change or the election is closer, then the Unite to Remain pact could do even better.

"We do have to bear in mind not everybody is going to follow the recommendation of their party," he said.

"Given where the polls are at the moment, probably perhaps five or six seats that might not otherwise be won by the Liberal Democrats might perhaps now be so.

"If the Lib Dems were to improve in the polls nationally the picture might differ. Lets say around half a dozen seats that might otherwise be conservative could go to one of these parties*. If the election is very close that could be crucial."

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-st ... -1-6363288

That source is a strongly pro-Remain outlet, but the Curtice quote is from a Radio 4 World at One interview earlier today.


*That doesn't seem to make sense; he's saying that if the polls stand as they currently are the LibDems might win 5-6 seats, but if the LibDem polls improve the relevant parties could win 'around half a dozen seats'? Did he perhaps mean 'another half a dozen seats'?

[The Huskar Social Union]

As far as i am concerned this is entirely the wrong attitude to take regarding the Greens NI stepping down in South Belfast (Paula Brashaw is the Alliance party candidate in South Belfast, and she is not happy with the Greens backing Clare Hannah (SDLP) in South Belfast)

All it does is come across to me as being petty and bitter that they didnt back you, its sending the wrong message to your voters and as someone who supports the Alliance party i am disappointed.

Like, i dont like pacts here in NI, ive talked about that before and why, but this seems to me to be the wrong way to go around it, especially towards a party that for all intents and purposes should be your unofficial ally. Its another pro remain "Other" party that shares similar views and you are lashing out at them for reasons that to me, look very petty and personal.

Im getting very conflicted for this election.

[Vassenor]

Nick Conrad quits as Tory candidate over rape comments

Conservative election candidate Nick Conrad has said he is standing down over "ill-judged comments" he made on the radio about a rape case.

The former BBC Radio Norfolk presenter had been chosen as the party's candidate for the Broadland seat.

He was criticised for saying in 2014 that women should "keep their knickers on" in an on-air discussion about rape.

Labour had said the comments showed he was not fit to be an MP and should be dropped as a candidate.

I mean the guy pretty much said women should not be allowed to refuse sex as that hurts men emotionally. That's pretty fucked up.

[Thermodolia]

Now if only the Tories and Brexit leaderships would sign up for a murder-suicide pact...

I chuckled

[Bienenhalde]

Nick Conrad quits as Tory candidate over rape comments

Conservative election candidate Nick Conrad has said he is standing down over "ill-judged comments" he made on the radio about a rape case.

The former BBC Radio Norfolk presenter had been chosen as the party's candidate for the Broadland seat.

He was criticised for saying in 2014 that women should "keep their knickers on" in an on-air discussion about rape.

Labour had said the comments showed he was not fit to be an MP and should be dropped as a candidate.

I mean the guy pretty much said women should not be allowed to refuse sex as that hurts men emotionally. That's pretty fucked up.

I mean what he said was bad, but you are making it worse than it actually is. Of course, if he was a Labour candidate, I suppose you would be standing up for him and claiming that he said nothing wrong.

[Ifreann]

185 years of the Tories.

Tory elite, you've got noting in common with working class voters, you've no empathy, you've no insight, you've no experience, you've just got disdain and smug superiority.

[Crysuko]

Oh man, I wonder if the Conrad debacle will swing anyone

[Greed and Death]

185 years of the Tories.

Tory elite, you've got noting in common with working class voters, you've no empathy, you've no insight, you've no experience, you've just got disdain and smug superiority.

Just better trained and educated in our elite private schools so we alone know what is best for Britannia. It is our noble obligation to lead you. We will Brexit and if you do not like it your citizenship will be revoked.

[Vassenor]

Nick Conrad quits as Tory candidate over rape comments



I mean the guy pretty much said women should not be allowed to refuse sex as that hurts men emotionally. That's pretty fucked up.

I mean what he said was bad, but you are making it worse than it actually is. Of course, if he was a Labour candidate, I suppose you would be standing up for him and claiming that he said nothing wrong.

How is that making what he said seem worse than it actually is?

Or is there no actual substance to this little NO U?

[An Alan Smithee Nation]

Cleansing floodwaters wipe out most of the polling stations in the north of England. Possibly.

[Dumb Ideologies]

I mean what he said was bad, but you are making it worse than it actually is. Of course, if he was a Labour candidate, I suppose you would be standing up for him and claiming that he said nothing wrong.

How is that making what he said seem worse than it actually is?

Or is there no actual substance to this little NO U?

What he actually said is that if you're not interested in sex it's not advisable to get into bed with a new guy because there's a chance he'll be tempted to act badly.

It's a two-level issue. As an individual out of context advice piece that's sensible, that would reduce your risk, but on the larger ideological level it's the sort of thing that can be interpreted to suggest it's women's responsibility rather than men's to control their urges and that sort of idea has negative consequences.

It sounds like an honest mistake someone might blunder into making. He apologised, this happened five years ago, and as far as I'm aware he hasn't been involved in any similar controversies since; people should be allowed to learn and grow rather than having such comments be used against them for all time.

[The Blaatschapen]

How is that making what he said seem worse than it actually is?

Or is there no actual substance to this little NO U?

What he actually said is that if you're not interested in sex it's not advisable to get into bed with a new guy because there's a chance he'll be tempted to act badly.

It's a two-level issue. As an individual out of context advice piece that's sensible, that would reduce your risk, but on the larger ideological level it's the sort of thing that can be interpreted to suggest it's women's responsibility rather than men's to control their urges and that sort of idea has negative consequences.

It sounds like an honest mistake someone might blunder into making. He apologised, this happened five years ago, and as far as I'm aware he hasn't been involved in any similar controversies since; people should be allowed to learn and grow rather than having such comments be used against them for all time.

Otherwise, we're fucked for all eternity, since social media never forgets.

[The Huskar Social Union]

This is painful to watch but i had to share it


He doesnt seem to understand his own fucking deal and is rambling like a drunken fuck.