Russia unlikely to be neutral in USA-Iran War: Implications

[The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp]

Simply just give Iran back to Greece. Problem solved.

Or just don't invade Iran.

[Asherahan]

Simply just give Iran back to Greece. Problem solved.

Or just don't invade Iran.

Or rename Iran to Persia then all the Americans will not be able to find the country on the maps.

Bad Education system joke. Yay me.

[Internationalist Bastard]

I mean no shit Iran is strategically valuable alto Russia they aren’t going to just let America bomb it to shit, lazily prop up a pro American government and say mission accomplished

[Internationalist Bastard]

Simply just give Iran back to Greece. Problem solved.

Or just don't invade Iran.

Or rename Iran to Persia then all the Americans will not be able to find the country on the maps.

Bad Education system joke. Yay me.

Implying most Americans can find Iran on a map now

[Asherahan]

Or rename Iran to Persia then all the Americans will not be able to find the country on the maps.

Bad Education system joke. Yay me.

Implying most Americans can find Iran on a map now

Follow up joke on the American populace being dumb.

Also yes your probably right. But then Iraq is next to Iran soooo....

[Alvecia]

I mean no shit Iran is strategically valuable alto Russia they aren’t going to just let America bomb it to shit, lazily prop up a pro American government and say mission accomplished

I dunno, if history is any indication, that's exactly the kind of thing that'll turn into the next anti-American terror group 5 years down the line.

[Bear Stearns]

Well obviously.

It is a shame that Iran has such terrible relations with the West. They should be hand in hand resisting the Mongol Horde, just as ancient Persia did centuries ago.

Is Russia the Mongol horde?

[Risottia]

I don't recall the Parthians having all that love for the Roman Empire, or the Persians going hand-in-hand with the Greek poleis.

You don't Recall?? Dude, I knew you were old, but sweet baby jesus....,

That's what Darius told me. Well, he said "sweet baby Mazda", still...

[Pim Fortuyn]

Well obviously.

It is a shame that Iran has such terrible relations with the West. They should be hand in hand resisting the Mongol Horde, just as ancient Persia did centuries ago.

I don't recall the Parthians having all that love for the Roman Empire, or the Persians going hand-in-hand with the Greek poleis.

Well the West didn’t exist at that point imo but I can see why you have taken my post as hyperbolic.

[Kowani]

Simply just give Iran back to Greece. Problem solved.

Or just don't invade Iran.

That wouldn’t result in Greece being summarily dominated.

[Scomagia]

Simply just give Iran back to Greece. Problem solved.

Or just don't invade Iran.

I'm pretty sure no one is intending to, despite the baseless insistence by some to the contrary.

[Totally Not OEP]

In the unlikely event that there is an Iran War, in which Russia joins in directly in an even more unlike series of events, the end result of such is Russian tanks at the Channel unless the Poles manage to stop them.

[Gormwood]

Well obviously.

It is a shame that Iran has such terrible relations with the West. They should be hand in hand resisting the Mongol Horde, just as ancient Persia did centuries ago.

Is Russia the Mongol horde?

Tartars.

[Washington Resistance Army]

Conclusion: Trump should send John Bolton and Mike Pompeo to the Hague for war crimes in Iraq, and this whole nonsense about going to war with Iran should be put to bed. No need for a conflict that would see tens of thousands killed.

I’ll personally pay for John “Bomb bomb, bomb Iran” Bolton’s airfare to the hague

I've always wanted to see the Bomb the Hague Act in action.

[Totally Not OEP]

I’ll personally pay for John “Bomb bomb, bomb Iran” Bolton’s airfare to the hague

I've always wanted to see the Bomb the Hague Act in action.

It's all fun and games until the Marines roll up...

[Chestaan]

No it's the other way around, this is the best support they could give honestly. Outright War would be like Russia helping Serbia by declaring War: It'd embarrass themselves while embarrassing USA too.

And yes, the EU is Germany in this comparison. I threw you a bone 4th-Reich conspiracists be happy.

Yes, because the US will face any form of trouble fighting a country that literally lacks a viable air force, who's missiles have a precedent missing targets and falling inside their own borders and who's main navy insists of ships that can't fight in open sea and are essentially limited to the Persian Gulf. Iran has no hope in a military confrontation, and Russia has practically given the US the green light in a punitive measure (which is hilarious, because that's literally what Iran's been hoping on this last two years).

Ah yes, because of course the US has never had any trouble whatsoever beating substantially inferior military forces.

[Novus America]

Yes, because the US will face any form of trouble fighting a country that literally lacks a viable air force, who's missiles have a precedent missing targets and falling inside their own borders and who's main navy insists of ships that can't fight in open sea and are essentially limited to the Persian Gulf. Iran has no hope in a military confrontation, and Russia has practically given the US the green light in a punitive measure (which is hilarious, because that's literally what Iran's been hoping on this last two years).

Ah yes, because of course the US has never had any trouble whatsoever beating substantially inferior military forces.

In conventional warfare? Never had real problems.
Sure if we tried to occupy and fight a counter insurgency that is different.
That is difficult for anyone (but not impossible).

Not saying we should start a war with them for the lols, we should not.
But if they start something we need to be prepared to respond. We should not underestimate them, definitely not fight their strengths on their terms (which is always stupid).
But leverage our strengths against their weaknesses.

But we should not be paralyzed by defeatism either.

[Ethel mermania]

You don't Recall?? Dude, I knew you were old, but sweet baby jesus....,

That's what Darius told me. Well, he said "sweet baby Mazda", still...

Darius drove a Mazda? I wii be dammed. I always saw him in an Audi.

[Novus America]

Well obviously.

It is a shame that Iran has such terrible relations with the West. They should be hand in hand resisting the Mongol Horde, just as ancient Persia did centuries ago.

Is Russia the Mongol horde?

Actually Russia does have a significant ethnic Mongol population in the East.
But contrary to popular belief, there are not that many Russians.

There is no endless horde of Russians.
Actually Russians reproduce like other humans, (and are not doing a very good job at it) again contrary to popular belief they do not endlessly spawn from spores in Siberia.

Really the “Russia is unbeatable because they will Zerg Russia you with unlimited people” meme really needs to die.
Russia is actually only in 9th place in population.

[Asherahan]

Is Russia the Mongol horde?

Actually Russia does have a significant ethnic Mongol population in the East.
But contrary to popular belief, there are not that many Russians.

There is no endless horde of Russians.
Actually Russians reproduce like other humans, (and are not doing a very good job at it) again contrary to popular belief they do not endlessly spawn from spores in Siberia.

Really the “Russia is unbeatable because they will Zerg Russia you with unlimited people” meme really needs to die.
Russia is actually only in 9th place in population.

Yeah China or India would be way better with the Zerg Meme. Because unlike the Russians they do spawn from spores... of rice.

I will be leaving now.

[North German Realm]

Yes, because the US will face any form of trouble fighting a country that literally lacks a viable air force, who's missiles have a precedent missing targets and falling inside their own borders and who's main navy insists of ships that can't fight in open sea and are essentially limited to the Persian Gulf. Iran has no hope in a military confrontation, and Russia has practically given the US the green light in a punitive measure (which is hilarious, because that's literally what Iran's been hoping on this last two years).

Ah yes, because of course the US has never had any trouble whatsoever beating substantially inferior military forces.

The US has never had a trouble defeating a substantially inferior military force in direct, confrontational, conventional warfare. It actually has a pretty good record where that is concerned. What the US doesn't have a good record is defeating militias used to unconventional warfare (that's kinda why it beats Iraq in like, 5 days but fights entire years against the Taliban or entire decades against the Viet-Kong)

[Baltenstein]

Ah yes, because of course the US has never had any trouble whatsoever beating substantially inferior military forces.

The US has never had a trouble defeating a substantially inferior military force in direct, confrontational, conventional warfare. It actually has a pretty good record where that is concerned. What the US doesn't have a good record is defeating militias used to unconventional warfare (that's kinda why it beats Iraq in like, 5 days but fights entire years against the Taliban or entire decades against the Viet-Kong)

How high are the chances that Iran would devolve into guerilla warfare in case of a hypothetical US invasion and subsequent occupation? Would Iranians take to the mountains en masse or would most people prefer to get along with the new Status Quo?

[Novus America]

Ah yes, because of course the US has never had any trouble whatsoever beating substantially inferior military forces.

The US has never had a trouble defeating a substantially inferior military force in direct, confrontational, conventional warfare. It actually has a pretty good record where that is concerned. What the US doesn't have a good record is defeating militias used to unconventional warfare (that's kinda why it beats Iraq in like, 5 days but fights entire years against the Taliban or entire decades against the Viet-Kong)

True, but nobody has a great record with that.
We do it about as well as anyone, but that is not saying much.

The big problem is assuming COIN is a purely military matter.
Really the best way is to improve economic conditions, the rule of law and good governance.

Our more recent obsession of taking a hands off approach to the new governments and not stepping in to stop massive corruption and mismanagement is the issue.
It is more political than military.

[Novus America]

The US has never had a trouble defeating a substantially inferior military force in direct, confrontational, conventional warfare. It actually has a pretty good record where that is concerned. What the US doesn't have a good record is defeating militias used to unconventional warfare (that's kinda why it beats Iraq in like, 5 days but fights entire years against the Taliban or entire decades against the Viet-Kong)

How high are the chances that Iran would devolve into guerilla warfare in case of a hypothetical US invasion and subsequent occupation? Would Iranians take to the mountains en masse or would most people prefer to get along with the new Status Quo?

High enough I would say that we should absolutely avoid it, if a war does occur (again not saying we start one for no good reason).

I think controlling the cities would not be too bad, but much of the rural population are raving fanatics, and the terrain difficult. Iran is like a bigger Afghanistan.
Though with a better educated and less fanatic urban population. The rural population though is pretty much the same.

But you can defeat an opponent without occupying.
The Persian Gulf War would be a better model than the later Iraq War.

[North German Realm]

The US has never had a trouble defeating a substantially inferior military force in direct, confrontational, conventional warfare. It actually has a pretty good record where that is concerned. What the US doesn't have a good record is defeating militias used to unconventional warfare (that's kinda why it beats Iraq in like, 5 days but fights entire years against the Taliban or entire decades against the Viet-Kong)

How high are the chances that Iran would devolve into guerilla warfare in case of a hypothetical US invasion and subsequent occupation? Would Iranians take to the mountains en masse or would most people prefer to get along with the new Status Quo?

Honestly? It's a wildcard. Don't take my word for it (I wouldn't, anecdote isn't the singular form for data) but where I live, people are literally waiting for an invasion (kinda like thinking "if they attack, at least this will be over".) The majority that I know of won't take to the mountains en masse. Provided the US doesn't do something stupid, they'd probably just keep to their lives as normal. There are people who would take to the mountains. The IRGC has a large enough popular base in the more conservative, rural areas. The problem here is that the majority of those who would "lead" the fight (the military personnel with any history of warfare, especially the type of guerilla warfare you'd expect this to devolve into) would be out of country by that point, which makes things worse and better at the same time.