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by Tinhampton » Wed May 29, 2019 9:15 am
by Philjia » Wed May 29, 2019 9:39 am
Tinhampton wrote:Wait, isn't there some bit of London with 9,000 inhabitants that's been de facto independent since 1974?
Nemesis the Warlock wrote:I am the Nemesis, I am the Warlock, I am the shape of things to come, the Lord of the Flies, holder of the Sword Sinister, the Death Bringer, I am the one who waits on the edge of your dreams, I am all these things and many more
by Bears Armed » Wed May 29, 2019 9:52 am
Austria-Bohemia-Hungary wrote:Senegalboy wrote:As a sovereign nation, we should have the right to control our own borders.
we have a housing crisis as well as a NHS crisis.Uncontrolled immigration would just further strain these services
Re the NHS you could idfkn... fund the damn thing and not view it as a bottomless hedge fund to siphon £££'s from in the name of austerity?
by Fartsniffage » Wed May 29, 2019 10:03 am
by Vassenor » Wed May 29, 2019 10:21 am
by Tybra » Wed May 29, 2019 10:32 am
Hirota wrote:Finished my spreadsheet.
Obvious disclaimer - I'm not a data analyst. There is probably some methodology that could be improved upon, and I'm happy to hear what can be improved upon. Time to spoil them out methinks.
Median Weekly wage vs Percentage voted for Brexit by constituency and Average Weekly Wage vs Percentage voted for Brexit by constituency
Not a huge difference between the two - the trend that median/average lower weekly wage constituencies were more likely to vote leave appears consistent.
Percentage of people with Degree level or higher vs percentage voted for Brexit by constituencyThis probably ties in with the distribution of wealth as observed in the previous two.(Image)
Average House Price vs percentage voted for Brexit by constituencyAgain, correlation with weekly wage is probably in play here.(Image)
Average age vs percentage voted for Brexit by constituencyI was actually surprised there appears to be next to no correlation between the average age of the constituency and how they voted for Brexit.(Image)
Percentage non-UK born vs percentage voted for Brexit by constituencyI don't have any particular feedback on this one right now.(Image)
Spreadsheet is here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1NUz8jy ... sp=sharingI've picked up the raw data from the office of National Statistics, the Commons Library on median gross weekly pay for full-time employees per constituency, and the data from the 2016 referendum from Professor Chris Hanretty, a political scientist at Royal Holloway University, who combined official results and the BBC data with statistical methods in order to estimate the proportion of Leave and Remain voters in every seat in England, Scotland and Wales.
That last one isn't ideal, but it's the most accurate record I could find.
OLS Regression Results
==============================================================================
Dep. Variable: y R-squared: 0.630
Model: OLS Adj. R-squared: 0.628
Method: Least Squares F-statistic: 356.0
Date: Wed, 29 May 2019 Prob (F-statistic): 5.14e-135
Time: 18:52:30 Log-Likelihood: 788.28
No. Observations: 632 AIC: -1569.
Df Residuals: 628 BIC: -1551.
Df Model: 3
Covariance Type: nonrobust
=====================================================================================================
coef std err t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const 0.6969 0.021 33.370 0.000 0.656 0.738
Average Weekly Wage (ONS Data) 0.0003 5.55e-05 5.284 0.000 0.000 0.000
Percentage Non-UK Born (ONS Data) -0.1562 0.028 -5.541 0.000 -0.212 -0.101
Percentage with Degree (ONS Data) -1.1573 0.054 -21.368 0.000 -1.264 -1.051
==============================================================================
Omnibus: 177.500 Durbin-Watson: 1.109
Prob(Omnibus): 0.000 Jarque-Bera (JB): 385.452
Skew: -1.527 Prob(JB): 2.00e-84
Kurtosis: 5.305 Cond. No. 1.06e+04
==============================================================================
by Bears Armed » Wed May 29, 2019 10:48 am
by Philjia » Wed May 29, 2019 10:52 am
Bears Armed wrote:Vassenor wrote:
That's what happens after years of chronic underfunding from a Government looking for excuses to privatise the damn thing.
The BBC -- which isn't exactly pro-Conservative -- says that you're wrong: See the first graph.
Nemesis the Warlock wrote:I am the Nemesis, I am the Warlock, I am the shape of things to come, the Lord of the Flies, holder of the Sword Sinister, the Death Bringer, I am the one who waits on the edge of your dreams, I am all these things and many more
by Ostroeuropa » Wed May 29, 2019 10:57 am
Philjia wrote:Bears Armed wrote:
The BBC -- which isn't exactly pro-Conservative -- says that you're wrong: See the first graph.
The same article explains that our health spending is below average for the EU, health spending has slowed, and the vast majority goes on frontline care rather than social care, which is a fatal disparity with our ageing population.
by Greater vakolicci haven » Wed May 29, 2019 11:16 am
Dumb Ideologies wrote:The Xenopolis Confederation wrote:Alas, now even DI has betrayed Brexit. Not even the noble Carl Benjamin can save us now!
Aware this is banter but...
Brexit betrayed most of its voters the moment its elite supporters bought into the idea that the government rather than the people should decide what kind of Brexit should occur. The Brexit campaign was a fairly broad church and I hardly think that the majority of its voters voted how they did because they wanted to expand global free trade and switch the source of immigration in favour of those from further away - seemingly the position of most government arch-Brexiters, the shysters who laughably present themselves as noble defenders of the popular will and """real""" Brexit.
Brexit Party pursued strategic ambiguity by not having a manifesto, and many who are still on board the train are those who've terminally dug in their heels and are very willing to get fooled again because they don't want to acknowledge to the Remainer acquaintances they've had long arguments with that actually yeah they were swindled, whoops.
by The Huskar Social Union » Wed May 29, 2019 11:19 am
by Ifreann » Wed May 29, 2019 11:24 am
The Huskar Social Union wrote:The Nigel Farage fan club apparently has a plan for the Irish Border.
But they cant tell anyone apparently when asked a simple question by a presenter.
by The Huskar Social Union » Wed May 29, 2019 11:32 am
by Hirota » Wed May 29, 2019 11:43 am
Ha, I'm looking at how to use Power BI to run linear regressions at the moment as part of a larger piece to try and get up to speed on Power BI, which work is starting to adopt in place of excel. If you'd said OLS regression to me last week I would not have any idea what you were on about...even now it's a bit out of my depth, but I'm getting there.Tybra wrote:Hirota wrote:Finished my spreadsheet.
Obvious disclaimer - I'm not a data analyst. There is probably some methodology that could be improved upon, and I'm happy to hear what can be improved upon. Time to spoil them out methinks.
Median Weekly wage vs Percentage voted for Brexit by constituency and Average Weekly Wage vs Percentage voted for Brexit by constituency
Not a huge difference between the two - the trend that median/average lower weekly wage constituencies were more likely to vote leave appears consistent.
Percentage of people with Degree level or higher vs percentage voted for Brexit by constituencyThis probably ties in with the distribution of wealth as observed in the previous two.(Image)
Average House Price vs percentage voted for Brexit by constituencyAgain, correlation with weekly wage is probably in play here.(Image)
Average age vs percentage voted for Brexit by constituencyI was actually surprised there appears to be next to no correlation between the average age of the constituency and how they voted for Brexit.(Image)
Percentage non-UK born vs percentage voted for Brexit by constituencyI don't have any particular feedback on this one right now.(Image)
Spreadsheet is here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1NUz8jy ... sp=sharingI've picked up the raw data from the office of National Statistics, the Commons Library on median gross weekly pay for full-time employees per constituency, and the data from the 2016 referendum from Professor Chris Hanretty, a political scientist at Royal Holloway University, who combined official results and the BBC data with statistical methods in order to estimate the proportion of Leave and Remain voters in every seat in England, Scotland and Wales.
That last one isn't ideal, but it's the most accurate record I could find.
I threw all factors in a OLS regression and this popped out of it.
- Code: Select all
OLS Regression Results
==============================================================================
Dep. Variable: y R-squared: 0.630
Model: OLS Adj. R-squared: 0.628
Method: Least Squares F-statistic: 356.0
Date: Wed, 29 May 2019 Prob (F-statistic): 5.14e-135
Time: 18:52:30 Log-Likelihood: 788.28
No. Observations: 632 AIC: -1569.
Df Residuals: 628 BIC: -1551.
Df Model: 3
Covariance Type: nonrobust
=====================================================================================================
coef std err t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const 0.6969 0.021 33.370 0.000 0.656 0.738
Average Weekly Wage (ONS Data) 0.0003 5.55e-05 5.284 0.000 0.000 0.000
Percentage Non-UK Born (ONS Data) -0.1562 0.028 -5.541 0.000 -0.212 -0.101
Percentage with Degree (ONS Data) -1.1573 0.054 -21.368 0.000 -1.264 -1.051
==============================================================================
Omnibus: 177.500 Durbin-Watson: 1.109
Prob(Omnibus): 0.000 Jarque-Bera (JB): 385.452
Skew: -1.527 Prob(JB): 2.00e-84
Kurtosis: 5.305 Cond. No. 1.06e+04
==============================================================================
Rather than looking at each factor individually it looked at how all factors influence the vote together. The Adj R-square explains how well the regression model fits the data, 62.8% is explained by the data which is an ok relationship. Weekly wages of the ONS was a better fit so i threw out the other one to avoid collinearity. I also threw out age because it had no relationship with the vote and housing price because it had to many missing values for my taste.
The coeff show the increase of each category for each increase in the Percentage Voting Leave. Which tells us that for each increase of 1 in Average Weekly Wage the Percentage Voting Leave increases by 0.0003, for each increase in Percentage Non-UK Born it decreases by 0.15, and for Percentage degree it decrease by 1.15. Rather than percent the scale was from 0 to 1 (=100%).
Interestingly, if you just look at a one on one relationship between Weekly Wage and Percentage Leave the coeff becomes -0.0007 with an R of 0.245. Weekly wage alone would likely be insufficient to explain who voted leave and you would also need to include the percentage with degrees and percentage of non-uk borne citizens.
by Vassenor » Thu May 30, 2019 12:44 am
by Greater vakolicci haven » Thu May 30, 2019 1:53 am
by Bears Armed » Thu May 30, 2019 2:48 am
The stoppages in the factories have exacerbated a continuing slow down in the global car industry caused by the trade tensions between the US and China, uncertainties over the arrival of electric and self driving cars, and tougher environmental controls after the VW emissions scandal.
by Greater vakolicci haven » Thu May 30, 2019 2:54 am
Bears Armed wrote:
From that article:The stoppages in the factories have exacerbated a continuing slow down in the global car industry caused by the trade tensions between the US and China, uncertainties over the arrival of electric and self driving cars, and tougher environmental controls after the VW emissions scandal.
Blaming the entire drop on Brexit is a mistake... or an outright lie.
by Vassenor » Thu May 30, 2019 3:19 am
Bears Armed wrote:
From that article:The stoppages in the factories have exacerbated a continuing slow down in the global car industry caused by the trade tensions between the US and China, uncertainties over the arrival of electric and self driving cars, and tougher environmental controls after the VW emissions scandal.
Blaming the entire drop on Brexit is a mistake... or an outright lie.
by Greater vakolicci haven » Thu May 30, 2019 3:36 am
Vassenor wrote:Bears Armed wrote:From that article:The stoppages in the factories have exacerbated a continuing slow down in the global car industry caused by the trade tensions between the US and China, uncertainties over the arrival of electric and self driving cars, and tougher environmental controls after the VW emissions scandal.
Blaming the entire drop on Brexit is a mistake... or an outright lie.
Right, because how dare we suggest that a stoppage conducted to minimise disruption over the intended exit period would impact production.
by Souseiseki » Thu May 30, 2019 3:43 am
by Hirota » Thu May 30, 2019 3:54 am
Why does anyone still expect Vass to read more than the big letters at the top of an article?
by Bears Armed » Thu May 30, 2019 3:57 am
Hirota wrote:Why does anyone still expect Vass to read more than the big letters at the top of an article?
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