Far Easter Republic wrote:What are the odds this becomes a full-blown civil war?
We have to wait and see, perhaps tomorrow on May Day when many persons pro and con take to the streets, good question.
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by Greater La Habana Cuba and Miami Shores » Tue Apr 30, 2019 12:49 pm
Far Easter Republic wrote:What are the odds this becomes a full-blown civil war?
by Aclion » Tue Apr 30, 2019 12:51 pm
Senkaku wrote:Liriena wrote:Is that why Guaido called for the military to join him and violently overthrow Maduro in what he called "Operación Libertad"?
Because he's constitutionally the legitimate commander-in-chief and Maduro has control of the military? You'll note he's also calling on the Venezuelan people...?
...are you kidding? How is Operation Condor in any way comparable to this?
by Senkaku » Tue Apr 30, 2019 12:51 pm
Senkaku wrote:No, you're right, it's not guaranteed to be a good outcome- but it seems to me that it's a lot more likely that Guaido taking power will lead to a good outcome than Maduro staying.
We can agree to disagree on that. Or rather, I can agree that Venezuela might be better off in a post-Maduro situation... but not, in my opinion, the particular post-Maduro situation that would come from a successful coup.
Senkaku wrote:I mean, it seems to me that Maduro has kinda backed them into a corner by being so violently desperate to stay in power, and crashing the economy in the process.
This is kinda getting chicken-or-egg.
Senkaku wrote:Well, it sure as fuck doesn't seem like Chavez's ideas are doing a whole fucking lot, so I'd be willing to bet that proven economic ideas are more likely to help move the country towards recovery.
Neoliberal economics are not "proven" economic ideas. Not as far as South America is concerned, at least. The inevitable austerity of neoliberal economics might well finish the job that the crisis under Chavismo started and starve many more Venezuelans.
Senkaku wrote:You won't find me disagreeing that the US has an optics problem here, but I'm not convinced that it goes deeper than an optics problem.
It definitely goes deeper than an optics problem when the people with the power to decide on the foreign policy towards Venezuela are quite clear about what they want.
Senkaku wrote:...are you fucking kidding me?
One is a dictator who's rigged elections, crashed the economy, illegally destroyed or subverted every political institution in the country to consolidate his own power, murdered and suppressed his own people, persecuted journalists and political opponents, enriched his cronies to the detriment of the people and overseen massive criminal activities, and completely abased himself to foreign powers like Cuba, Russia, Iran, and China. The other is an opposition leader with strong popular support who's been trying to peacefully remove him through a constitutional process and encouraging other countries to stand up for the human rights of the Venezuelan people and against the dictator who's oppressing them.
And you can't tell the fucking difference? Give me a fucking break.
Not saying you're wrong (in fact, I know for a fact that a lot of those claims are correct), but that seems like a rather gish-gallopy and one-sided info-dump.
by Senkaku » Tue Apr 30, 2019 12:54 pm
Liriena wrote:Senkaku wrote:Because he's constitutionally the legitimate commander-in-chief and Maduro has control of the military? You'll note he's also calling on the Venezuelan people...?
To join in a military operation to overthrow Maduro. Very responsible of him, using civilians as cannon fodder (same goes for the Chavistas, btw).
Senkaku wrote:...are you kidding? How is Operation Condor in any way comparable to this?
Only insofar as any violent overthrow of a third world government that gets marketed with "operation" in its name kind of gives me a "imperialist" vibe, even if it's not the exact same thing.
It's just an optics thing.
Senkaku wrote:If the US were supporting Maduro instead of Guaido, and the Russians or Chinese backing Guaido, what would you be saying? You'd be saying the US is supporting a brutal and fantastically corrupt dictatorship, and cheering on the opposition.
I'd feel the same way I feel right now: both sides of this conflict (insofar as their leaders go) are horrible and the Venezuelan people deserve better than either Maduro or Guaido.
by Greater La Habana Cuba and Miami Shores » Tue Apr 30, 2019 12:58 pm
An Alan Smithee Nation wrote:Still doesn't look like Guaido has enough support in the military to win.
by Sada Difrium » Tue Apr 30, 2019 1:06 pm
by Chestaan » Tue Apr 30, 2019 1:08 pm
by West Leas Oros 2 » Tue Apr 30, 2019 1:17 pm
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by Greater La Habana Cuba and Miami Shores » Tue Apr 30, 2019 1:18 pm
Chestaan wrote:Maduro is far from perfect, but I think we've seen more than enough US backed coups to realise that such a route is never good.
by Liriena » Tue Apr 30, 2019 1:26 pm
West Leas Oros 2 wrote:I'm honestly surprised the crisis is still continuing.
I am: A pansexual, pantheist, green socialist An aspiring writer and journalist | Political compass stuff: Economic Left/Right: -8.13 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -8.92 For: Grassroots democracy, workers' self-management, humanitarianism, pacifism, pluralism, environmentalism, interculturalism, indigenous rights, minority rights, LGBT+ rights, feminism, optimism Against: Nationalism, authoritarianism, fascism, conservatism, populism, violence, ethnocentrism, racism, sexism, religious bigotry, anti-LGBT+ bigotry, death penalty, neoliberalism, tribalism, cynicism ⚧Copy and paste this in your sig if you passed biology and know gender and sex aren't the same thing.⚧ |
by Senkaku » Tue Apr 30, 2019 1:30 pm
by Pim Fortuyn » Tue Apr 30, 2019 1:39 pm
Chestaan wrote:Maduro is far from perfect, but I think we've seen more than enough US backed coups to realise that such a route is never good.
by Baltenstein » Tue Apr 30, 2019 1:39 pm
Sada Difrium wrote:Greater La Habana Cuba and Miami Shores wrote:I'm afraid you're right, but I hope he succeeds some how.
I know the worry here is that the revolt fails, but I'm more worried about a Syria or Libya type situation where the conflict drags on and destroys the country. Don't get me wrong, I would definitely prefer something like Tunisia, but many revolutions end up going full circle, and a drawn out conflict increases the chance of that.
by Novus America » Tue Apr 30, 2019 1:40 pm
by Inkopolitia » Tue Apr 30, 2019 1:53 pm
by Proctopeo » Tue Apr 30, 2019 1:58 pm
Liriena wrote:Senkaku wrote:You'd prefer Maduro's status quo, then?
I'd prefer it if this situation wasn't resolved by way of a US-backed military coup. The status quo sucks but it's gonna take a lot to convince me that a military coup backed by a neocon American government is going to turn out any better than it did for pretty much every South American country in the 20th century. And the fact that Guaido's policy promises all revolve around begging foreign powers to help him out in exchange for giving foreign investors a lot more power over Venezuelan oil sure doesn't lessen my skepticism.
Inkopolitia wrote:A coup against an illegitimate government is not a coup, it's just an uprising against a brutal dictatorship which does not give two shits about the people. The socialists who say these lies need to stop.
by Liriena » Tue Apr 30, 2019 2:06 pm
Proctopeo wrote:Liriena wrote:I'd prefer it if this situation wasn't resolved by way of a US-backed military coup. The status quo sucks but it's gonna take a lot to convince me that a military coup backed by a neocon American government is going to turn out any better than it did for pretty much every South American country in the 20th century. And the fact that Guaido's policy promises all revolve around begging foreign powers to help him out in exchange for giving foreign investors a lot more power over Venezuelan oil sure doesn't lessen my skepticism.
Shit wasn't gonna get any better if Guaido followed your plan of action and tried to slowly build power in Venezuela.
Proctopeo wrote:Also, bitch, where's the "US-backed military coup"? All I see is a man with affirmation from the US government having Venezuelan soldiers and generals defect to his side while the citizenry show their strong support for him. At best there's a scant few Americans in the mix, by virtue of it being in our own backyard. The Russians, as mentioned, are the ones actively intervening, on the side of Maduro.
Proctopeo wrote:Oh, and Liri, you claim that Guaido looking for help across the board - US and China - makes him not really a social democrat.
Proctopeo wrote: But as you're effectively defending a dictator with your arguments, I call in to serious question your fors and cons, as well as any possible claims you could ever make to not being an authoritarian socialist in disguise.
What happened to humanitarianism and optimism? Why aren't you hoping for the best with Guaido? What happened to your supposed opposition to authoritarianism, to violence, and to cynicism?
I am: A pansexual, pantheist, green socialist An aspiring writer and journalist | Political compass stuff: Economic Left/Right: -8.13 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -8.92 For: Grassroots democracy, workers' self-management, humanitarianism, pacifism, pluralism, environmentalism, interculturalism, indigenous rights, minority rights, LGBT+ rights, feminism, optimism Against: Nationalism, authoritarianism, fascism, conservatism, populism, violence, ethnocentrism, racism, sexism, religious bigotry, anti-LGBT+ bigotry, death penalty, neoliberalism, tribalism, cynicism ⚧Copy and paste this in your sig if you passed biology and know gender and sex aren't the same thing.⚧ |
by Senkaku » Tue Apr 30, 2019 2:12 pm
Proctopeo wrote:Shit wasn't gonna get any better if Guaido followed your plan of action and tried to slowly build power in Venezuela.
Shit isn't going to get any better if his supporters start an armed insurrection and the whole bloody mess escalates even further (as if it needed more escalation).
And it's not gonna get any better if you vindicate Maduro's paranoia and give him more and more excuses to violently crush dissent.
Proctopeo wrote:Also, bitch, where's the "US-backed military coup"? All I see is a man with affirmation from the US government having Venezuelan soldiers and generals defect to his side while the citizenry show their strong support for him. At best there's a scant few Americans in the mix, by virtue of it being in our own backyard. The Russians, as mentioned, are the ones actively intervening, on the side of Maduro.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/04/ ... 21696.htmlProctopeo wrote:Oh, and Liri, you claim that Guaido looking for help across the board - US and China - makes him not really a social democrat.
Actually, what I think makes him "not really a social democrat" is that he seems to think that the solution to all of Venezuela's woes is subtly privatizing the country's biggest public asset to foreign interests.
Proctopeo wrote: But as you're effectively defending a dictator with your arguments, I call in to serious question your fors and cons, as well as any possible claims you could ever make to not being an authoritarian socialist in disguise.
What happened to humanitarianism and optimism? Why aren't you hoping for the best with Guaido? What happened to your supposed opposition to authoritarianism, to violence, and to cynicism?
That I don't personally trust Guaido and his backers doesn't mean I support Maduro or approve of running people over with armored vehicles. It's not a zero-sum game.
by Proctopeo » Tue Apr 30, 2019 2:20 pm
Proctopeo wrote:Shit wasn't gonna get any better if Guaido followed your plan of action and tried to slowly build power in Venezuela.
Shit isn't going to get any better if his supporters start an armed insurrection and the whole bloody mess escalates even further (as if it needed more escalation). And it's not gonna get any better if you vindicate Maduro's paranoia and give him more and more excuses to violently crush dissent.
Proctopeo wrote:Also, bitch, where's the "US-backed military coup"? All I see is a man with affirmation from the US government having Venezuelan soldiers and generals defect to his side while the citizenry show their strong support for him. At best there's a scant few Americans in the mix, by virtue of it being in our own backyard. The Russians, as mentioned, are the ones actively intervening, on the side of Maduro.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/04/ ... 21696.html
Proctopeo wrote:Oh, and Liri, you claim that Guaido looking for help across the board - US and China - makes him not really a social democrat.
Actually, what I think makes him "not really a social democrat" is that he seems to think that the solution to all of Venezuela's woes is subtly privatizing the country's biggest public asset to foreign interests.
Proctopeo wrote: But as you're effectively defending a dictator with your arguments, I call in to serious question your fors and cons, as well as any possible claims you could ever make to not being an authoritarian socialist in disguise.
What happened to humanitarianism and optimism? Why aren't you hoping for the best with Guaido? What happened to your supposed opposition to authoritarianism, to violence, and to cynicism?
That I don't personally trust Guaido and his backers doesn't mean I support Maduro or approve of running people over with armored vehicles. It's not a zero-sum game.
by Costa Fierro » Tue Apr 30, 2019 2:30 pm
by Senkaku » Tue Apr 30, 2019 2:43 pm
by Likar » Tue Apr 30, 2019 3:23 pm
Tensions escalated in Venezuela Tuesday after the country's U.S.-backed opposition leader and National Assembly President Juan Guaidó called for the military to topple the leftist government of Nicolás Maduro.
Early in the morning, Guaidó -- standing alongside a group of soldiers and previously jailed fellow opposition leader Leopoldo López -- called on the Venezuelan armed forces to stage an uprising and carry out what he dubbed "Operación Libertad," or operation freedom.
Top U.S. officials, including Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, were quick to vouch their support for Guaidó's bid to oust Maduro.
by Loben The 2nd » Tue Apr 30, 2019 3:40 pm
Likar wrote:Tensions escalated in Venezuela Tuesday after the country's U.S.-backed opposition leader and National Assembly President Juan Guaidó called for the military to topple the leftist government of Nicolás Maduro.
Early in the morning, Guaidó -- standing alongside a group of soldiers and previously jailed fellow opposition leader Leopoldo López -- called on the Venezuelan armed forces to stage an uprising and carry out what he dubbed "Operación Libertad," or operation freedom.
Top U.S. officials, including Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, were quick to vouch their support for Guaidó's bid to oust Maduro.
It seems the end is here. Venezuela is now in a civil war. Kind of.
The US should not intervene in Venezuela. It would cause an Afgahnistan 2.0. Hands off Venezuela!
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