2021 Israeli Elections IV: Now Without Netanyahu

[Phoenicaea]

i ve seen the plague of post-democratic administrative state, the latency of the state of law, to spread in my life. perhaps will see a decadent Israel, amongst others, with inept regent.

if you wish not to dive into the well, you should sack Nethanyau the corrupt. if you don t, well the better, we ll be brothers as undeveloped countries. welcome in the club.

[Stojam]

Liberman officially is dead politically. His political suicide was pure entertainment. I am not sure if Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman's party) will pass the election threshold.

[Angleter]

Liberman officially is dead politically. His political suicide was pure entertainment. I am not sure if Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman's party) will pass the election threshold.

It's still possible that by leaving YB to form Gesher, Orly Levy has destroyed her own political career, Lieberman's political career, and Moshe Kahlon's political career, and also wasted enough right-wing votes in the process to let Gantz in.

[Stojam]

Liberman officially is dead politically. His political suicide was pure entertainment. I am not sure if Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman's party) will pass the election threshold.

It's still possible that by leaving YB to form Gesher, Orly Levy has destroyed her own political career, Lieberman's political career, and Moshe Kahlon's political career, and also wasted enough right-wing votes in the process to let Gantz in.

Hakol Letova.

Btw, Orly wants the Health Ministry and various satire TV shows make fun of her and her party, she destroyed her own political career by having that vague manifesto and wasting right wing votes lol. This is pure entertainment don't you agree?
Also, you seen Kachlon's latest commercial yet?


NOTE: You forgot to add in the new Yashar, which wants separation of religion and state, secure demographic and military detachment from Palestinian territories and various other left wing ideals and generally wants Direct Democracy and so on. I don't think it'll pass the threshold but it's worth an adding.

[Angleter]

It's still possible that by leaving YB to form Gesher, Orly Levy has destroyed her own political career, Lieberman's political career, and Moshe Kahlon's political career, and also wasted enough right-wing votes in the process to let Gantz in.

Hakol Letova.

Btw, Orly wants the Health Ministry and various satire TV shows make fun of her and her party, she destroyed her own political career by having that vague manifesto and wasting right wing votes lol. This is pure entertainment don't you agree?
Also, you seen Kachlon's latest commercial yet?


NOTE: You forgot to add in the new Yashar, which wants separation of religion and state, secure demographic and military detachment from Palestinian territories and various other left wing ideals and generally wants Direct Democracy and so on. I don't think it'll pass the threshold but it's worth an adding.

The only Kahlon ads I've seen are the movie-style one and the one with the straitjackets. Not sure quite how they could top either of those.

I only mentioned parties which have crossed the threshold in the polls relatively regularly, or looked like they might merge into a party that would (Yachad), in order to maintain some sense of brevity and the will to live. If I'd mentioned Yashar then I'd have had to have mentioned Oren Hazan, Na Nach, and "The Pirates, led by the Internet, Ballots for Diarrhoea".

[Stojam]

Hakol Letova.

Btw, Orly wants the Health Ministry and various satire TV shows make fun of her and her party, she destroyed her own political career by having that vague manifesto and wasting right wing votes lol. This is pure entertainment don't you agree?
Also, you seen Kachlon's latest commercial yet?


NOTE: You forgot to add in the new Yashar, which wants separation of religion and state, secure demographic and military detachment from Palestinian territories and various other left wing ideals and generally wants Direct Democracy and so on. I don't think it'll pass the threshold but it's worth an adding.

The only Kahlon ads I've seen are the movie-style one and the one with the straitjackets. Not sure quite how they could top either of those.

I only mentioned parties which have crossed the threshold in the polls relatively regularly, or looked like they might merge into a party that would (Yachad), in order to maintain some sense of brevity and the will to live. If I'd mentioned Yashar then I'd have had to have mentioned Oren Hazan, Na Nach, and "The Pirates, led by the Internet, Ballots for Diarrhoea".

Ah ok.
Well there is a new ad with some guy in a mask with a Russian accent talks about how much money Kachlon made to the Israeli people and how he is the Robin hood of Israel.
I recognize the voice actor, he is from a comedy show about the 80s in Israel.
Here is the link: https://youtu.be/nuzHLMIYYfs


Btw, how did Orly Levy ruin Kachlon's career?

[Thermodolia]

My final projection: Zehut will join the Likud coalition giving them 64 seats and another four years of control.

I don’t know about that. Is Likud ok with Cannabis legalization? Because that’s a condition Zehut has before joining a coalition.

I think Blue and White is more likely to be ok with legalization of cannabis than Likud

[Angleter]

The only Kahlon ads I've seen are the movie-style one and the one with the straitjackets. Not sure quite how they could top either of those.

I only mentioned parties which have crossed the threshold in the polls relatively regularly, or looked like they might merge into a party that would (Yachad), in order to maintain some sense of brevity and the will to live. If I'd mentioned Yashar then I'd have had to have mentioned Oren Hazan, Na Nach, and "The Pirates, led by the Internet, Ballots for Diarrhoea".

Ah ok.
Well there is a new ad with some guy in a mask with a Russian accent talks about how much money Kachlon made to the Israeli people and how he is the Robin hood of Israel.
I recognize the voice actor, he is from a comedy show about the 80s in Israel.
Here is the link: https://youtu.be/nuzHLMIYYfs


Btw, how did Orly Levy ruin Kachlon's career?

She might take enough votes from Kulanu to knock them below the threshold.

[Stojam]

Ah ok.
Well there is a new ad with some guy in a mask with a Russian accent talks about how much money Kachlon made to the Israeli people and how he is the Robin hood of Israel.
I recognize the voice actor, he is from a comedy show about the 80s in Israel.
Here is the link: https://youtu.be/nuzHLMIYYfs


Btw, how did Orly Levy ruin Kachlon's career?

She might take enough votes from Kulanu to knock them below the threshold.

I don't think she herself might take enough votes, most polls show she is barely able to pass the threshold. Sure, she might get some votes from the Center-Left and Centrist voters and from Kulanu voters, but Kachlon is very popular among Centrists, Secularists and a bit of minorities iirc.

[Angleter]

She might take enough votes from Kulanu to knock them below the threshold.

I don't think she herself might take enough votes, most polls show she is barely able to pass the threshold. Sure, she might get some votes from the Center-Left and Centrist voters and from Kulanu voters, but Kachlon is very popular among Centrists, Secularists and a bit of minorities iirc.

Oh, she won't pass the threshold herself, and I think on balance Kulanu are still likely to get 4 or 5 seats, but she seems to be trying to appeal to the same voter base that Kahlon got in 2015. There's a scenario where Gesher, Kulanu, and YB all miss out on the threshold, whereas if Gesher didn't exist, then both Kulanu and YB would probably be comfortably on 6 seats or thereabouts.

[Angleter]

There's supposed to be a 'boycott' of the elections by some Arab Israelis, although this isn't expected to be a major phenomenon.

There was a hint that all was not well with the old Joint List's voter base when Ahmad Tibi, who led the smallest faction in the Joint List (Ta'al), left and instantly took half the Joint List's support with him. It's interesting that now he's teamed up with Hadash, which was the largest faction in the Joint List and is led by former Joint List leader Ayman Odeh, that faction has struggled to make headway in the polls. Tibi was polling at 6 by himself, but Tibi and Odeh together are only polling around 8.

Ra'am-Balad, composed of the remaining factions from the Joint List, might miss the threshold altogether. Considering their, er, controversial relationship with terrorism, Qatar, &c., I doubt many Israelis would miss them if they fell short.

It appears that there was a sense of dissatisfaction with the Joint List among Arab voters (and this isn't the first time it's manifested itself), and Tibi gave a sense of being something new and different when he left, only to squander all of that when he teamed back up with Odeh. So a lot of Arab voters will simply stay home, and a few might vote for no-hope minor parties or even for some of the Zionist parties.

---

On a related note, right-wing activists have been caught trying to put hidden cameras in polling stations in Arab-majority areas.

[Latialand]

Sorry, but is there any christian parties in Israel?

[Stojam]

There's supposed to be a 'boycott' of the elections by some Arab Israelis, although this isn't expected to be a major phenomenon.

There was a hint that all was not well with the old Joint List's voter base when Ahmad Tibi, who led the smallest faction in the Joint List (Ta'al), left and instantly took half the Joint List's support with him. It's interesting that now he's teamed up with Hadash, which was the largest faction in the Joint List and is led by former Joint List leader Ayman Odeh, that faction has struggled to make headway in the polls. Tibi was polling at 6 by himself, but Tibi and Odeh together are only polling around 8.

Ra'am-Balad, composed of the remaining factions from the Joint List, might miss the threshold altogether. Considering their, er, controversial relationship with terrorism, Qatar, &c., I doubt many Israelis would miss them if they fell short.

It appears that there was a sense of dissatisfaction with the Joint List among Arab voters (and this isn't the first time it's manifested itself), and Tibi gave a sense of being something new and different when he left, only to squander all of that when he teamed back up with Odeh. So a lot of Arab voters will simply stay home, and a few might vote for no-hope minor parties or even for some of the Zionist parties.

---

On a related note, right-wing activists have been caught trying to put hidden cameras in polling stations in Arab-majority areas.

Isn't Ra'am-Balad popular with the Bedouins? They might get some cheap votes off the Bedouin population, but not sure about them passing the threshold.
Anyways, I voted today so I am glad I filled one of my civic duties.

[Stojam]

Sorry, but is there any christian parties in Israel?

No, because most of the Christians are either Arab or various Christians of European descent, which are either tourists are people who got a citizenship somehow.
Plus Christianity is a minor thing in Israel so... That's that.
There aren't any Christian parties formed because there is no demand.

[North German Realm]

So when are the results going to be out? Today's the election day, right?

[Stojam]

So when are the results going to be out? Today's the election day, right?

Tomorrow or today at night Israeli time, not sure.

[Outer Sparta]

So when are the results going to be out? Today's the election day, right?

Tomorrow or today at night Israeli time, not sure.

I heard the polls close at 10 PM Israel time.

[Angleter]

Tomorrow or today at night Israeli time, not sure.

I heard the polls close at 10 PM Israel time.

Yes.

For now, every single party is telling everyone who'll listen that they're doing very badly and need everyone to come out to vote for them, or they'll lose the election. After 10pm Israeli time we get to find out who's lying.

[Outer Sparta]

I heard the polls close at 10 PM Israel time.

Yes.

For now, every single party is telling everyone who'll listen that they're doing very badly and need everyone to come out to vote for them, or they'll lose the election. After 10pm Israeli time we get to find out who's lying.

Maybe that's why I saw a video about Netanyahu saying that the Likuds will lose and the Left will win. All to rile up their voters and play like they're behind.

[Major-Tom]

Netanyahu is despicable, praying Blue & White wins so he can rot in jail.

[Nothreen]

Here are the exit polls of the big Israeli channels:
https://www.jewishpress.com/news/politics/10-pm-exit-poll-kan-11-likud-36-gantz-37-right-wing-wins-feiglin-out/2019/04/09/

party\channel ........11 / 12 / 13
Kahol-lavan........... 37 / 37 / 36
Likud................... 36 / 33 / 36
Labor................... 8 / 6 / 7
UTJ..................... 7 / 7 / 7
Hadash-Ta’al .......... 6 / 6 / 7
Shas .................... 7 / 6 / 7
Meretz ................. 5 / 5 / 4
Kulanu ................. 5 / 4 / 4
Right Wing Union .... 5 / 5 / 4
Israel Beiteinu ....... 4 / 5 / 4
Ra’am Balad ......... 0 / 6 / 0
New right ............ 0 / 0 / 4

Most suprising thing? Zehut is out in all three.

Disclaimer: due to election threshold and other calculations, results could change radically if you move some thousands votes. This is going to be a wild ride for the next few days.

Needless to say that any calculation of coalition building or winner deceleration, will be a waste of time at this point.

[Angleter]

Here are the exit polls of the big Israeli channels:
https://www.jewishpress.com/news/politics/10-pm-exit-poll-kan-11-likud-36-gantz-37-right-wing-wins-feiglin-out/2019/04/09/

party\channel ........11 / 12 / 13
Kahol-lavan........... 37 / 37 / 36
Likud................... 36 / 33 / 36
Labor................... 8 / 6 / 7
UTJ..................... 7 / 7 / 7
Hadash-Ta’al .......... 6 / 6 / 7
Shas .................... 7 / 6 / 7
Meretz ................. 5 / 5 / 4
Kulanu ................. 5 / 4 / 4
Right Wing Union .... 5 / 5 / 4
Israel Beiteinu ....... 4 / 5 / 4
Ra’am Balad ......... 0 / 6 / 0
New right ............ 0 / 0 / 4

Most suprising thing? Zehut is out in all three.

Disclaimer: due to election threshold and other calculations, results could change radically if you move some thousands votes. This is going to be a wild ride for the next few days.

Needless to say that any calculation of coalition building or winner deceleration, will be a waste of time at this point.

Also seen a poll (don't think it's an exit poll) from i24:

Kachol Lavan 37
Likud 33
Labor 8
UTJ 7
Hadash-Ta'al 7
URWP 7
New Right 7
Kulanu 6
Shas 5
Meretz 5
Zehut 4
Ra'am-Balad 4

New Right failing in the exit polls is big news. For some reason Shaked and Bennett are people who people say they'll vote for but then actually don't.

This whole thing is going to turn on who passes the threshold.

[Angleter]

Gantz giving a triumphant speech, saying the largest party should get the mandate to form a government, and that he wants to form the broadest possible coalition (think that's an olive branch to Likud).

Gabbay was a bit more downbeat, for obvious reasons.

[Angleter]

Live results, but early days at the moment. Nothing suggesting the exit polls are way out yet.

Threshold is 3.25%.

Also here's all the exit polls and election day polls in one place.

[Far Easter Republic]

Yes.

For now, every single party is telling everyone who'll listen that they're doing very badly and need everyone to come out to vote for them, or they'll lose the election. After 10pm Israeli time we get to find out who's lying.

Maybe that's why I saw a video about Netanyahu saying that the Likuds will lose and the Left will win. All to rile up their voters and play like they're behind.

Well, they're level square with Blue and White.