MAGAThread XIV: All persons born or naturalized ...

[Oil exporting People]

Lordy he's plummeting to new low levels of utter bullshit.. I kind of hope Omarosa has a steady drip feed of these tapes so make a claim, await the denial, release the tape.. repeat ad nauseam..

I mean it's one of those things where everyone involved is a deceitful, lying reality TV star.. this whole administration is a joke.

The guy has achieved nothing apart from place rocket fuel under an economy that will shortly explode and entered a basic trade war that is all going to end in tears and even saying 'we told you so' will have no satisfaction..

But China might get hurt a bit, so OEP will be happy.

Last I checked, the RMB was down 8% since April. We've long since passed the point of "hurt" to "We're Fucked"; he broke the back of the Chinese, and that is certainly an accomplishment despite whatever else happened during his Presidency.

[New haven america]

It’s almost like we elected an incompetent man child because he appealed to people who don’t understand shit about politics

Almost like electing someone who lacks leadership experience to the biggest leadership job in the world was a bad idea or something.

Nonsense, he's showing all those foreign leaders what for and draining the swamp.

If only he didn't screw with our allies and replace the swamp with people who are even worse than their predecessors...

[Great Confederacy of Commonwealth States]

But China might get hurt a bit, so OEP will be happy.

Last I checked, the RMB was down 8% since April. We've long since passed the point of "hurt" to "We're Fucked"; he broke the back of the Chinese, and that is certainly an accomplishment despite whatever else happened during his Presidency.

Owwww, come on. I am willing to accept that Trump has negatively impacted China, but the idea that China's back is broken is ludicrous. You're engaging in fantasy.

[Oil exporting People]

Let the example of Turkey show all who doubt the continued power of the United States:

Turkey Crisis in Charts: Worse Than Lehman, Similar to 1998

Turkey is mired in one of the worst currency routs in emerging-market history, with few signs of how it will end. The lira fell as much as 17 percent Friday, capping the biggest slump since the country’s banking crisis in 2001, and is down nearly 30 percent since President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was returned to office with sweeping new powers in late June.

Here are three charts that highlight the strains the country is facing.

As the lira melts down, the costs to trade the currency have soared. The bid-ask spread, or the difference between the price dealers are willing to buy and sell the lira at, has widened beyond the gap seen at the depth of the global financial crisis in 2008, following Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s collapse. Although it hasn’t quite reached the 2015 records. The poor liquidity points to a dysfunctional market.

The weakness makes it more expensive for Turkish borrowers to pay back foreign-currency loans. As a result, the country’s default risk has soared, driving up the cost of insuring against such an event using swaps. Turkey is now seen as more likely to default on its debt than Greece, which is rated four notches lower by Moody’s Investor Service. The current CDS pricing implies a 25 percent probability of non-payment in the next five years, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Lacking domestic funding sources, Turkey needs to borrow from foreign investors to sustain its spending. Its funding gap now is similar to that seen before the Asian currency crisis in the late 1990s, and the Latin America debt crisis in the 1980s, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

[Oil exporting People]

Owwww, come on. I am willing to accept that Trump has negatively impacted China, but the idea that China's back is broken is ludicrous. You're engaging in fantasy.

He's got them by the vice grip, as all indicators are showing. For example, China's been aggressively pushing to become a world reserve currency these last few years and as part of that has been promising stability to the RMB, but since April they've aggressively been devaluing it to keep exports competitive with the tariffs in play. Problem with that is that has massively spooked investors and, along with a debt crisis, is threatening to trigger a financial panic; they've already seen their stock market collapse from second to below Japan so far and this isn't over. Even worse, by devaluing their currency to keep exports going in the short term, they've utterly wrecked the purchasing power of their citizens, which has collapsed their strategy of switching from exports to domestic consumption. The tech restrictions too, which haven't got as much coverage, have led to State Run media entirely dropping all talk of the "Made in China 2025" program, which is extremely telling.

There's a lot more that I could say, but I think this sums it up well.

[Sick Jumps]

Let the example of Turkey show all who doubt the continued power of the United States:

Turkey Crisis in Charts: Worse Than Lehman, Similar to 1998

Turkey is mired in one of the worst currency routs in emerging-market history, with few signs of how it will end. The lira fell as much as 17 percent Friday, capping the biggest slump since the country’s banking crisis in 2001, and is down nearly 30 percent since President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was returned to office with sweeping new powers in late June.

Here are three charts that highlight the strains the country is facing.

As the lira melts down, the costs to trade the currency have soared. The bid-ask spread, or the difference between the price dealers are willing to buy and sell the lira at, has widened beyond the gap seen at the depth of the global financial crisis in 2008, following Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s collapse. Although it hasn’t quite reached the 2015 records. The poor liquidity points to a dysfunctional market.

The weakness makes it more expensive for Turkish borrowers to pay back foreign-currency loans. As a result, the country’s default risk has soared, driving up the cost of insuring against such an event using swaps. Turkey is now seen as more likely to default on its debt than Greece, which is rated four notches lower by Moody’s Investor Service. The current CDS pricing implies a 25 percent probability of non-payment in the next five years, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Lacking domestic funding sources, Turkey needs to borrow from foreign investors to sustain its spending. Its funding gap now is similar to that seen before the Asian currency crisis in the late 1990s, and the Latin America debt crisis in the 1980s, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

To be fair, this is partially due to the bad turn in US-Turkish relations, but also due to Erdogan's own mismanagement and his destruction of the civil service in Turkey. People no longer have confidence that the Turkish central bank will be able to do what is needed to stem the currency crisis.

[Vassenor]

Let the example of Turkey show all who doubt the continued power of the United States:

Turkey Crisis in Charts: Worse Than Lehman, Similar to 1998

To be fair, this is partially due to the bad turn in US-Turkish relations, but also due to Erdogan's own mismanagement and his destruction of the civil service in Turkey. People no longer have confidence that the Turkish central bank will be able to do what is needed to stem the currency crisis.

But Trump said it was all down to him and how awesomely awesome he is, and Trump never ever ever lies.

[Oil exporting People]

To be fair, this is partially due to the bad turn in US-Turkish relations, but also due to Erdogan's own mismanagement and his destruction of the civil service in Turkey. People no longer have confidence that the Turkish central bank will be able to do what is needed to stem the currency crisis.

Let the example of Turkey show all who doubt the continued power of the United States:

[Oil exporting People]

To be fair, this is partially due to the bad turn in US-Turkish relations, but also due to Erdogan's own mismanagement and his destruction of the civil service in Turkey. People no longer have confidence that the Turkish central bank will be able to do what is needed to stem the currency crisis.

But Trump said it was all down to him and how awesomely awesome he is, and Trump never ever ever lies.

In this case, absolutely it is Trump's doing given he doubled the tariff rate on them which sparked the currency devaluations.

[Petrasylvania]

To be fair, this is partially due to the bad turn in US-Turkish relations, but also due to Erdogan's own mismanagement and his destruction of the civil service in Turkey. People no longer have confidence that the Turkish central bank will be able to do what is needed to stem the currency crisis.

But Trump said it was all down to him and how awesomely awesome he is, and Trump never ever ever lies.

Any country that speaks HERESY of the God-Emperor will collapse.

[Sick Jumps]

To be fair, this is partially due to the bad turn in US-Turkish relations, but also due to Erdogan's own mismanagement and his destruction of the civil service in Turkey. People no longer have confidence that the Turkish central bank will be able to do what is needed to stem the currency crisis.

Let the example of Turkey show all who doubt the continued power of the United States:

Right, and I'm saying that the collapse of the lira is not entirely due to the policy of the United States. The currency crisis has been going on for a while.

[Oil exporting People]

Right, and I'm saying that the collapse of the lira is not entirely due to the policy of the United States. The currency crisis has been going on for a while.

Trump announced he would double tariffs on Turkey Friday and the currency plunged 14%, roughly half of its 30% plunge since June and that's just one day. This is overwhelmingly the work of U.S. policy.

[Sick Jumps]

Right, and I'm saying that the collapse of the lira is not entirely due to the policy of the United States. The currency crisis has been going on for a while.

Trump announced he would double tariffs on Turkey Friday and the currency plunged 14%, roughly half of its 30% plunge since June and that's just one day. This is overwhelmingly the work of U.S. policy.

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from ... Y&view=10Y
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from ... D&view=10Y

Yes that's true, but it is also true that Erdogan has been interfering in economic and monetary policy extensively since 2013, with disastrous consequences. I'm not saying the US decision has had no impact (clearly it has), but things have not been hunky dory in Turkey. Turkey is a poster child for why an independent central bank and expert-driven (rather than ego-driven) economic policy are important.

[Proctopeo]

Trump announced he would double tariffs on Turkey Friday and the currency plunged 14%, roughly half of its 30% plunge since June and that's just one day. This is overwhelmingly the work of U.S. policy.

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from ... Y&view=10Y
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from ... SD&view=5Y

Yes that's true, but it is also true that Erdogan has been interfering in economic and monetary policy extensively since 2013, with disastrous consequences. I'm not saying the US decision has had no impact (clearly it has), but things have not been hunky dory in Turkey. Turkey is a poster child for why an independent central bank and expert-driven (rather than ego-driven) economic policy are important.

It's perhaps more that American policy made the Lira situation much worse and made it deteriorate much more quickly.

[Vassenor]

Right, and I'm saying that the collapse of the lira is not entirely due to the policy of the United States. The currency crisis has been going on for a while.

Trump announced he would double tariffs on Turkey Friday and the currency plunged 14%, roughly half of its 30% plunge since June and that's just one day. This is overwhelmingly the work of U.S. policy.

Correlation is not causation. This is basic logic.

[Proctopeo]

Trump announced he would double tariffs on Turkey Friday and the currency plunged 14%, roughly half of its 30% plunge since June and that's just one day. This is overwhelmingly the work of U.S. policy.

Correlation is not causation. This is basic logic.

Occam's razor, also simple logic.

[Oil exporting People]

Trump announced he would double tariffs on Turkey Friday and the currency plunged 14%, roughly half of its 30% plunge since June and that's just one day. This is overwhelmingly the work of U.S. policy.

Correlation is not causation. This is basic logic.

Then cite something that shows Trump's actions had nothing to do with it. If it's as basic as you claim, surely you can do this?

[Sick Jumps]

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from ... Y&view=10Y
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from ... SD&view=5Y

Yes that's true, but it is also true that Erdogan has been interfering in economic and monetary policy extensively since 2013, with disastrous consequences. I'm not saying the US decision has had no impact (clearly it has), but things have not been hunky dory in Turkey. Turkey is a poster child for why an independent central bank and expert-driven (rather than ego-driven) economic policy are important.

It's perhaps more that American policy made the Lira situation much worse and made it deteriorate much more quickly.

I would agree with this. For Turkey, steel exports to the US are an important part of the economy, so the tariffs will have bite. They are not entirely symbolic.

All I'm saying is that there are underlying reasons which explain why the lira is shitting the bed. People are reading this as a turning point in US-Turkish relations, which have been deteriorating for the past few years under Erdogan's leadership. Erdogan's response has also not been too encouraging. He's basically been defiant, saying that the decline of the lira is due to some US plot, and not due to Turkey's economic fundamentals or his policies. He's also been escalating the Aegean dispute since late last year. Looking for a "rally around the flag" effect, I guess.

[The Black Forrest]

Guess donnie got all snowflake and pulled the security clearance of Brennan. That will show him!

http://thehill.com/homenews/administrat ... fringement

[Sick Jumps]

Guess donnie got all snowflake and pulled the security clearance of Brennan. That will show him!

http://thehill.com/homenews/administrat ... fringement

New question on the SF-86:

"In the last seven (7) years, have you criticized or failed to praise the President of the United States? ☐ YES ☐ NO (if NO, proceed to Section 18)"

[Grinning Dragon]

Guess donnie got all snowflake and pulled the security clearance of Brennan. That will show him!

http://thehill.com/homenews/administrat ... fringement

Good, they guy was a FPOS anyways and I've never understood why someone should keep their clearance once they were gone/retired.

[Vassenor]

Guess donnie got all snowflake and pulled the security clearance of Brennan. That will show him!

http://thehill.com/homenews/administrat ... fringement

Meanwhile Jared had to get someone to fucking ghostwrite his clearance paperwork and no-one has tried to yank his.

[Sick Jumps]

Guess donnie got all snowflake and pulled the security clearance of Brennan. That will show him!

http://thehill.com/homenews/administrat ... fringement

Good, they guy was a FPOS anyways and I've never understood why someone should keep their clearance once they were gone/retired.

Clearances last until they either expire or are revoked so that the government's time and money isn't wasted. If they've verified that you aren't a security threat, there's no need to redo everything whenever you change jobs. Instead, they do reassessments every 5-15 years, depending on the clearance level.

[Ifreann]

Guess donnie got all snowflake and pulled the security clearance of Brennan. That will show him!

http://thehill.com/homenews/administrat ... fringement

Good, they guy was a FPOS anyways and I've never understood why someone should keep their clearance once they were gone/retired.

To maintain institutional knowledge and experience.

[Sick Jumps]

Good, they guy was a FPOS anyways and I've never understood why someone should keep their clearance once they were gone/retired.

Clearances last until they either expire or are revoked so that the government's time and money isn't wasted. If they've verified that you aren't a security threat, there's no need to redo everything whenever you change jobs. Instead, they do reassessments every 5-15 years, depending on the clearance level.

Concrete example of why this is done:

A former member of the military with a top secret clearance can go to work with a contractor which does sensitive work for the government. He/she just needs to keep their clearance up to date.