Trump MAGAThread XI: Button, Button, Who's Got The Button?

[Steffan]

Currently the stock markets are tanking again after Friday's 666 point loss by the NYSE. NYSE currently down over 550 points.

Let's be fair; the stock market isn't the economy's health bar. It has good days, and it has bad ones, and I'm not inclined to blame Trump for it's decline.

[Post War America]

Currently the stock markets are tanking again after Friday's 666 point loss by the NYSE. NYSE currently down over 550 points.

Let's be fair; the stock market isn't the economy's health bar. It has good days, and it has bad ones, and I'm not inclined to blame Trump for it's decline.

No but we are due for a recession soonish.

[Steffan]

Let's be fair; the stock market isn't the economy's health bar. It has good days, and it has bad ones, and I'm not inclined to blame Trump for it's decline.

No but we are due for a recession soonish.

Due? Was it scheduled?

[Neu Leonstein]

Currently the stock markets are tanking again after Friday's 666 point loss by the NYSE. NYSE currently down over 550 points.

You ought to at least quote the changes in percentage points. 550 points today are not the same as 550 points in 1972. But 1.75% is the same any time.

[Corrian]

Let's be fair; the stock market isn't the economy's health bar. It has good days, and it has bad ones, and I'm not inclined to blame Trump for it's decline.

No but we are due for a recession soonish.

Especially when we have an unstable government fueling it faster.

[Post War America]

No but we are due for a recession soonish.

Due? Was it scheduled?

Clearly...

I know its a gross oversimplification, but it would appear that the economic cycle is roughly where it would be for a downturn after the expansionary period its been going through.

[The Black Forrest]

Real Trump is back

That lasted longer then I expected. Donnie probably had is phone taken from him and he must have reported it stolen and gotten a new one.

[Jerzylvania]

Currently the stock markets are tanking again after Friday's 666 point loss by the NYSE. NYSE currently down over 550 points.

You ought to at least quote the changes in percentage points. 550 points today are not the same as 550 points in 1972. But 1.75% is the same any time.

I'd didn't say it was the same as in 1972. When I report a current event doesn't mean I have to give a lecture on the subject, dude.

NYSE is now down over 1000 points, which is huge!

[Neu Leonstein]

I'd didn't say it was the same as in 1972. When I report a current event doesn't mean I have to give a lecture on the subject, dude.

NYSE is now down over 1000 points, which is huge!

It could be down 1000 furlongs, which would mean about as much to anyone who didn't know what level the index started with. There's a lot of shitty reporting out there on financial markets, and because equity markets get mentioned the most, they get some of the worst of it. So without looking to criticise you in particular, just for future reference for anyone interested in looking what US share markets are doing in response to things:

• NYSE is not an index. It is a company that offers exchange services on which shares can be traded. Indices are constructed by various people as a way to summarise the movements of a bunch of shares in a single number.
• Once you've decided on which companies to include and how to weight them, you can pick any number to represent the starting level and any time to be the starting time. The actual number of the index at any time after that is just as arbitrary, and doesn't mean anything by itself. What is useful is the percentage change of the index, because that is independent of the initial timing and level choices of the index, and is therefore comparable across indices.
• When looking at US markets, the Dow Jones index (DJIA) is useless. It is calculated as a price-weighted index of the 30 largest companies. A company can choose the number of shares it issues. If it is worth $100, it can issue 1,000 shares at $0.10 each, or 100 shares at $1 each, or 1 share at $100 each. The unit price itself is therefore also pretty much arbitrary, and what matters is how it changes. Except when you're calculating the DJIA, where you will weight the company that issued 1 share 1,000 times as much as the one that issued 1,000 shares. It's one of the very earliest stock market indices, so they were still experimenting then. But there's no excuse for still using it.
• What you actually want to use is the S&P 500. It is not using a simple average of prices, but weighting them by how big the companies actually are. It also includes a lot more stocks.
• And it is down more than 3 per cent. Which is a lot.

[Jerzylvania]

I'd didn't say it was the same as in 1972. When I report a current event doesn't mean I have to give a lecture on the subject, dude.

NYSE is now down over 1000 points, which is huge!

It could be down 1000 furlongs, which would mean about as much to anyone who didn't know what level the index started with. There's a lot of shitty reporting out there on financial markets, and because equity markets get mentioned the most, they get some of the worst of it. So without looking to criticise you in particular, just for future reference for anyone interested in looking what US share markets are doing in response to things:

• NYSE is not an index. It is a company that offers exchange services on which shares can be traded. Indices are constructed by various people as a way to summarise the movements of a bunch of shares in a single number.
• Once you've decided on which companies to include and how to weight them, you can pick any number to represent the starting level and any time to be the starting time. The actual number of the index at any time after that is just as arbitrary, and doesn't mean anything by itself. What is useful is the percentage change of the index, because that is independent of the initial timing and level choices of the index, and is therefore comparable across indices.
• When looking at US markets, the Dow Jones index (DJIA) is useless. It is calculated as a price-weighted index of the 30 largest companies. A company can choose the number of shares it issues. If it is worth $100, it can issue 1,000 shares at $0.10 each, or 100 shares at $1 each, or 1 share at $100 each. The unit price itself is therefore also pretty much arbitrary, and what matters is how it changes. Except when you're calculating the DJIA, where you will weight the company that issued 1 share 1,000 times as much as the one that issued 1,000 shares. It's one of the very earliest stock market indices, so they were still experimenting then. But there's no excuse for still using it.
• What you actually want to use is the S&P 500. It is not using a simple average of prices, but weighting them by how big the companies actually are. It also includes a lot more stocks.
• And it is down more than 3 per cent. Which is a lot.

Copy and paste is such a time saver! Thank you.

[Camicon]

No but we are due for a recession soonish.

Due? Was it scheduled?

Boom and bust is a bitch.

[Neu Leonstein]

Boom and bust is a bitch.

This talk about recessions and busts might be jumping the gun just a touch...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ut-worsens

[Camicon]

Boom and bust is a bitch.

This talk about recessions and busts might be jumping the gun just a touch...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ut-worsens

Looking at long-term trends we're about due to start sliding; I'm not saying that this dip is the start of it, but it is going to happen in the near future.

[Steffan]

This talk about recessions and busts might be jumping the gun just a touch...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ut-worsens

Looking at long-term trends we're about due to start sliding; I'm not saying that this dip is the start of it, but it is going to happen in the near future.

I think we're jumping to conclusions here. If the trend keeps up over the next few days & weeks, that's when people should worry...and Trump should start shitting himself.

[Jerzylvania]

This talk about recessions and busts might be jumping the gun just a touch...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ut-worsens

Looking at long-term trends we're about due to start sliding; I'm not saying that this dip is the start of it, but it is going to happen in the near future.

The gyrations today have been wild. Just after 3 PM it was down over 1600 points. Now it's 1100 and were are nearing 4 PM.
Looks to me like the beginning of a correction. What goes up must come down!

[Jerzylvania]

Looking at long-term trends we're about due to start sliding; I'm not saying that this dip is the start of it, but it is going to happen in the near future.

I think we're jumping to conclusions here. If the trend keeps up over the next few days & weeks, that's when people should worry...and Trump should start shitting himself.

This sell off actually began last Monday.

[Libraria and Ausitoria]

Let's be fair; the stock market isn't the economy's health bar. It has good days, and it has bad ones, and I'm not inclined to blame Trump for it's decline.

No but we are due for a recession soonish.

Depends when you count from. If you count from the start of the recession, it should start about now. If you count from the end, because you'd hope a bust had a proper bubble first, we've still got up to about 7 years. So my bet is somewhere between now and 2030...

[Camicon]

Looking at long-term trends we're about due to start sliding; I'm not saying that this dip is the start of it, but it is going to happen in the near future.

I think we're jumping to conclusions here. If the trend keeps up over the next few days & weeks, that's when people should worry...and Trump should start shitting himself.

I'm not looking at short-term trends, nor am I saying that this particular dip is the start of a "bust" cycle. I'm saying that, when you look at the long-term trends, we can expect a "bust" cycle to start in the near future, i.e. within the next few years. Because that's how the system behaves, and has for over a century.

[Neu Leonstein]

This sell off actually began last Monday.

And it follows weeks of the S&P 500 not declining. People literally made a big deal of it when it only finished flat. Sometimes markets go up and sometimes they are going down. We had probably above-trend growth and benign inflation, which means a cautious Fed, and then on top of that a massive corporate tax cut. All are good for equities, and that's what the chart shows. Question is which of those things you see changing, and my guesstimate would be that it's the cautious Fed part that people are starting to think about.

But that's still a long way from anything that would justify using the "r-word".

[Jerzylvania]

Looks like the DJIA has finished the day down 4.61% with the largest daily point drop in history at -1175.

This sell off actually began last Monday.

And it follows weeks of the S&P 500 not declining. People literally made a big deal of it when it only finished flat. Sometimes markets go up and sometimes they are going down. We had probably above-trend growth and benign inflation, which means a cautious Fed, and then on top of that a massive corporate tax cut. All are good for equities, and that's what the chart shows. Question is which of those things you see changing, and my guesstimate would be that it's the cautious Fed part that people are starting to think about.

But that's still a long way from anything that would justify using the "r-word".

Agreed. That's why I didn't use the "r-word."

BTW, Trump is a fool for taking credit for any stock market rise bc that worm can turn.

[Steffan]

I think we're jumping to conclusions here. If the trend keeps up over the next few days & weeks, that's when people should worry...and Trump should start shitting himself.

I'm not looking at short-term trends, nor am I saying that this particular dip is the start of a "bust" cycle. I'm saying that, when you look at the long-term trends, we can expect a "bust" cycle to start in the near future, i.e. within the next few years. Because that's how the system behaves, and has for over a century.

Trump better hope not. If the economy tanks, there goes his sole leg to stand on.

[Valrifell]

Due? Was it scheduled?

Clearly...

I know its a gross oversimplification, but it would appear that the economic cycle is roughly where it would be for a downturn after the expansionary period its been going through.

Boom and Bust. Part of the point of bank reform which has been rolled back steadily over the past few decades was to get us out of this kind of cyclical economy, or at least mitigate the extremes.

[Valrifell]

No but we are due for a recession soonish.

Depends when you count from. If you count from the start of the recession, it should start about now. If you count from the end, because you'd hope a bust had a proper bubble first, we've still got up to about 7 years. So my bet is somewhere between now and 2030...

I don't know, some people are saying the next bubble to pop is student debt, and that's been growing in spite of other economic trends during the recession.

[Tobleste]

I'm not looking at short-term trends, nor am I saying that this particular dip is the start of a "bust" cycle. I'm saying that, when you look at the long-term trends, we can expect a "bust" cycle to start in the near future, i.e. within the next few years. Because that's how the system behaves, and has for over a century.

Trump better hope not. If the economy tanks, there goes his sole leg to stand on.

Part of me wonders if it matters. He could just blame Clinton and 90% is his current supporters would buy it.

[The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp]

Trump: "Are economy is great look at the DOW!"

Dow: *Is shit*

Trump: "Umm.. It's not a problem"