UK Politics Thread VII: Wake me DUP inside [can't wake UUP]

[Questers]

Manufacturing exports up is a fairly predictable outcome of a currency depreciation. I think almost anyone could have predicted (a) GBP depreciation (b) exports up.

[Questers]

Which is why I read the Telegraph - rather than the Mail - for a more conservative perspective.

It's the best of the right-leaning bunch by far. The Express is possibly worse than the Mail, and the one time we got the Times we were surprised at how sleazy it was - absolutely obsessed with stories about porn and sex.

"Newspapers" are the bourgeoisie attempt at a Ministry of Information. That they contain varying viewpoints has nothing to do with it. In fact, they make the deception more powerful and compelling.

[Questers]

There's an Aldi near me but I don't see what the fuss is about really. Honestly the place is an absolute tip and it's kind of off putting.

You are the kind of person that would put a carpet in a train station.

[Souseiseki]

“We suddenly became 15 to 20% cheaper than our competitors in Europe and the US [after Brexit],” said Russell Currie, managing director of Fairline Yachts, at the opening of the London Boat Show at ExCel in east London. “It’s been a fantastic year.”

lol "suddenly"

could it be because the value of our currency fell by 20-25% after brexit

[Philjia]

There's an Aldi near me but I don't see what the fuss is about really. Honestly the place is an absolute tip and it's kind of off putting.

You are the kind of person that would put a carpet in a train station.

There's nothing worse than municipal carpeting.

Municipal Carpeting would be a great name for a band, actually.

[Questers]

You are the kind of person that would put a carpet in a train station.

There's nothing worse than municipal carpeting.

Municipal Carpeting would be a great name for a band, actually.

There is nothing worse than Englishmen pretending to be Scandinavians and taking all the bad parts (expensive, pretentious) without the good parts (well-designed, practical.)

[Omakhandia]

“We suddenly became 15 to 20% cheaper than our competitors in Europe and the US [after Brexit],” said Russell Currie, managing director of Fairline Yachts, at the opening of the London Boat Show at ExCel in east London. “It’s been a fantastic year.”

lol "suddenly"

could it be because the value of our currency fell by 20-25% after brexit

Dang, maybe it's time I took that trip to London I've always been thinking about...

[Eibenland]

"Under a Labour government the railway system will be brought back into public ownership and a hundred flowers will bloom"

?????

Was this an intended press release or was it published by accident? All fine and dandy to be enthusiastic but that sounds like a manifesto for schoolchildren in your election to the book club.

~~~~~ also mao zedong is the origin of that phrase, not saying anything ~~~~~

Putting together John McDonnell's use of Mao's Red Book and this, it appears that someone in Labour has a Maoism fetish.

[Trumptonium]

“We suddenly became 15 to 20% cheaper than our competitors in Europe and the US [after Brexit],” said Russell Currie, managing director of Fairline Yachts, at the opening of the London Boat Show at ExCel in east London. “It’s been a fantastic year.”

lol "suddenly"

could it be because the value of our currency fell by 20-25% after brexit

Yes, that's how macroeconomics works.

A devaluation of a currency increases the competitiveness of your exports, hence why in economic downturns governments tend to devalue their currencies: to return to economic growth, or otherwise boost exports. It's why China exports a lot, as their currency is devalued multiple times a year. Other examples include Australia and Poland.

[Souseiseki]

lol "suddenly"

could it be because the value of our currency fell by 20-25% after brexit

Yes, that's how macroeconomics works.

A devaluation of a currency increases the competitiveness of your exports, hence why in economic downturns governments tend to devalue their currencies: to return to economic growth, or otherwise boost exports. It's why China exports a lot, as their currency is devalued multiple times a year. Other examples include Australia and Poland.

i suppose that would be good if we were a major exporting country or had any real prospect of becoming one instead of a net importer

which we aren't and don't, which is why we're constantly fluctuating between headlines saying "exports fall despite weak pound" and "exports up yay brexit!" instead of just "we exporters now"

[Trumptonium]

Yes, that's how macroeconomics works.

A devaluation of a currency increases the competitiveness of your exports, hence why in economic downturns governments tend to devalue their currencies: to return to economic growth, or otherwise boost exports. It's why China exports a lot, as their currency is devalued multiple times a year. Other examples include Australia and Poland.

i suppose that would be good if we were a major exporting country or had any real prospect of becoming one instead of a net importer

which we aren't and don't, which is why we're constantly fluctuating between headlines saying "exports fall despite weak pound" and "exports up yay brexit!" instead of just "we exporters now"

The UK is the 7th largest exporter in the world. Or 6th, if we exclude the transport hub of Hong Kong.

The humongous 15% single-year boom in exports (larger than any single-year China recorded) has added more to the value of exports (in GBP) than all the exports of Israel or Romania in a year. Circa $70bn.

[Arkolon]

lol "suddenly"

could it be because the value of our currency fell by 20-25% after brexit

Yes, that's how macroeconomics works.

A devaluation of a currency increases the competitiveness of your exports, hence why in economic downturns governments tend to devalue their currencies: to return to economic growth, or otherwise boost exports. It's why China exports a lot, as their currency is devalued multiple times a year. Other examples include Australia and Poland.

Britain, having a current account deficit, imports considerably more than it exports, and we can expect a fair amount of a British consumer's typical goods basket to have relatively inelastic demand, being composed of things like petrol or imported food. This is what's caused the above-target inflation which is squeezing consumers as real wages fall. "But we're selling more yachts" doesn't make up for a squeeze on living standards for ordinary people, however expected it is that exports rise as the value of the currency falls.

[Trumptonium]

Yes, that's how macroeconomics works.

A devaluation of a currency increases the competitiveness of your exports, hence why in economic downturns governments tend to devalue their currencies: to return to economic growth, or otherwise boost exports. It's why China exports a lot, as their currency is devalued multiple times a year. Other examples include Australia and Poland.

Britain, having a current account deficit, imports considerably more than it exports, and we can expect a fair amount of a British consumer's typical goods basket to have relatively inelastic demand, being composed of things like petrol or imported food. This is what's caused the above-target inflation which is squeezing consumers as real wages fall. "But we're selling more yachts" doesn't make up for a squeeze on living standards for ordinary people, however expected it is that exports rise as the value of the currency falls.

So did Japan Italy and Poland, then you implement policy to fix it and you get a current account surplus. The current government is clearly pursuing an industry strategy that aims to do just that within this parliamentary term.

The BoE has expectations that CPI will begin to disinflate starting January.

[Vassenor]

Yes, that's how macroeconomics works.

A devaluation of a currency increases the competitiveness of your exports, hence why in economic downturns governments tend to devalue their currencies: to return to economic growth, or otherwise boost exports. It's why China exports a lot, as their currency is devalued multiple times a year. Other examples include Australia and Poland.

Britain, having a current account deficit, imports considerably more than it exports, and we can expect a fair amount of a British consumer's typical goods basket to have relatively inelastic demand, being composed of things like petrol or imported food. This is what's caused the above-target inflation which is squeezing consumers as real wages fall. "But we're selling more yachts" doesn't make up for a squeeze on living standards for ordinary people, however expected it is that exports rise as the value of the currency falls.

But the alternative is admitting that Brexit might actually be a bad thing. And that's not allowed.

[Arkolon]

Britain, having a current account deficit, imports considerably more than it exports, and we can expect a fair amount of a British consumer's typical goods basket to have relatively inelastic demand, being composed of things like petrol or imported food. This is what's caused the above-target inflation which is squeezing consumers as real wages fall. "But we're selling more yachts" doesn't make up for a squeeze on living standards for ordinary people, however expected it is that exports rise as the value of the currency falls.

So did Japan Italy and Poland, then you implement policy to fix it and you get a current account surplus. The current government is clearly pursuing an industry strategy that aims to do just that within this parliamentary term.

The BoE has expectations that CPI will begin to disinflate starting January.

I think it's giving May's government too much credit to say that the devaluation of the pound as a result of the EU referendum was intentional and is maintained intentionally as part of some greater 'industrial strategy'. And this isn't a problem regarding the current account, that doesn't really matter in itself as far as we're concerned, but a greater amount of price-insensitive imports (like food or petrol) over price-sensitive exports (like yachts) means that a currency devaluation has a disproportionately negative effect on the economy.

[Salandriagado]

The luxury yacht industry is booming in the UK.

Sunseeker (based in Poole), Princess (Plymouth) and Fairline (Southampton) have all reported double digit growth this year, and Sunseeker has signed a deal to be one of the main sponsors of FIFA 18, a space normally reserved for the likes of $100bn+ companies.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -on-brexit

“We suddenly became 15 to 20% cheaper than our competitors in Europe and the US [after Brexit],” said Russell Currie, managing director of Fairline Yachts, at the opening of the London Boat Show at ExCel in east London. “It’s been a fantastic year.”

Currie said 95% of the company’s yachts, the biggest of which sell for several million pounds, are exported so the collapse in the pound has made its vessels better value compared to European and US rivals. “That doesn’t mean that only 5% of owners are British,” he said. “Most of them are British but they are buying them in a sunnier climate than ours.”

More manufacturing jobs! #DespiteBrexit.

Knocking 20% off Sunseeker's prices still leaves them as overpriced garbage.

[States of Glory]

The world's gone mad. Nigel Farrage wants another referendum on Brexit.

Surprisingly enough, not a U-turn.

[Vassenor]

The world's gone mad. Nigel Farrage wants another referendum on Brexit.

Surprisingly enough, not a U-turn.

You're not supposed to remember that he said that. It's inconvenient to the WILL OF THE PEOPLE narrative.

[Vassenor]

Also if it was held today then apparently it'd be a 55% Remain win according to ComRes.

[Salandriagado]

The world's gone mad. Nigel Farrage wants another referendum on Brexit.

Surprisingly enough, not a U-turn.

More of a doughnut at this point.

[Taihei Tengoku]

i suppose that would be good if we were a major exporting country or had any real prospect of becoming one instead of a net importer

which we aren't and don't, which is why we're constantly fluctuating between headlines saying "exports fall despite weak pound" and "exports up yay brexit!" instead of just "we exporters now"

The UK is the 7th largest exporter in the world. Or 6th, if we exclude the transport hub of Hong Kong.

The humongous 15% single-year boom in exports (larger than any single-year China recorded) has added more to the value of exports (in GBP) than all the exports of Israel or Romania in a year. Circa $70bn.

the hottest memes of ten years ago

[States of Glory]

Also if it was held today then apparently it'd be a 55% Remain win according to ComRes.

On the 11th of January 2018, the British people made clear their intention to remain in the European Union. The UK government now has a duty to implement the will of the people and to deliver on this instruction. Therefore, there must be a second referendum.

There must be no attempts to engage in a hard Brexit, no attempts to leave the EU through the back door, and no Article 50. The country voted to remain in the EU, and it is the duty of the government to make sure it does just that. The people of the United Kingdom voted to remain in the European Union, but we are not remaining in Europe. We want a deep and special partnership with the US. However, we believe that no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit. Parliament will have a meaningful vote on the final Brexit with the choice either to accept the final Brexit or remain in the EU with no Brexit.

[Eibenland]

Also if it was held today then apparently it'd be a 55% Remain win according to ComRes.

Crazy idea: UKIP and the LibDems should work together to get a second referendum.

[Hurdergaryp]

Surprisingly enough, not a U-turn.

More of a doughnut at this point.

Most people would prefer a donut over Nigel Farrage, so that's something. Don't really understand why the rest of UKIP is so adamantly opposed to a second referendum. If Leave wins once more, they can fade away in obscurity peacefully. If Remain actually wins, they can continue to do what they do best for many more decades to come. When you're a single issue party, you got to take all the scraps you can get.

[Oil exporting People]

i suppose that would be good if we were a major exporting country or had any real prospect of becoming one instead of a net importer

which we aren't and don't, which is why we're constantly fluctuating between headlines saying "exports fall despite weak pound" and "exports up yay brexit!" instead of just "we exporters now"

Relevant article: How Much Does the UK Really Depend on EU Trade?

The debate over Brexit has been filled with apocalyptic predictions about its potential economic implications for the United Kingdom. But among the major flaws in these predictions is the fact that they focus on the U.K. as a whole. The United Kingdom, however, is made up of four distinct countries: England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. All four will be affected by Brexit in different ways, partly because they have different levels of exposure to EU trade.

Looking at the top trading partners for each of the countries reveals that EU export markets and EU import suppliers are not as critical as you might expect. Two of Northern Ireland’s largest export destinations – the United States and Canada – are not EU members. In fact, the U.S. is the largest export destination for England, and the second largest for Scotland and Wales. China is also either a top-five export destination or import supplier for each of these countries.

Northern Ireland is a particularly interesting case. It exports more to the EU than it does outside the EU, but it is disproportionately reliant on one member state: the Republic of Ireland. In fact, in 2017, its exports to the Republic of Ireland increased. In the first three quarters of the year, these exports were on track to account for nearly three-quarters of Northern Ireland’s total exports. (Note that this increase in exports may well be a result of the weak pound.) But it’s also true that Northern Ireland’s economy as a whole is not heavily dependent on exports. They account for only 8.9 percent of its GDP. That means that though Northern Ireland is exposed to fluctuations in demand from the Republic of Ireland, it would not be crippled by a downturn in the Irish economy.

Germany, France and the Netherlands are also important markets for each, and in turn, the U.K. is a critical importer of goods from these EU members. Seven percent of German exports, 9 percent of Dutch exports and 7 percent of French exports go to the U.K. – and all of these EU heavyweights have export-to-GDP ratios much higher than the U.K.