The State of the Democratic Party Post-2016

[USS Monitor]

Not chivalry, more a specific part of bushido, the part where you have to ritualistically disembowel yourself if you commit dishonor.

You still continue to lack any kind of explanation on how dumping Franken hurts the Democrats. The best you've come up with is "Oh, sure his popularity tanked and we even have our own voters wanting him to resign, but we don't know for sure that that makes him more vulnerable for re-election!"

Cutting off a tumor is a better metaphor than disemboweling.

Franken's ability to win re-election has nothing to do with whether he should resign.

Refusing to resign would not mean he had to run for another term. If 2020 rolled around and his popularity and poll numbers were still slumping, he could step aside then and not run for re-election.

[Tahar Joblis]

Rolling Stone was also the only publication breaking the story. Multiple accusers coming forward is a rather different matter.

Rolling Stone was not the only publication covering the story after the fact. There's always only one source truly breaking the story.

And Watergate was a rape case?

Franken isn't. Neither is Conyers or Franks.

The first fair example thus far. We now have in the 90s a Republican taking three years to resign, and a Democrat never doing so, and in the 2000s, two Republicans each taking a day to resign, and two Democrats each taking two or more weeks.

Depends on where you start your timeline.

In all cases the cases you mention, the politicians have basically responded to party leadership's cues.

We can add more "nevers." Mark Foley may have resigned quickly, but his successor got thrown out at the ballot box for his sex scandal.

Below the hand, yes, below where he is grasping, not beneath it.

And below his fingertips, which are still clearly not in contact with the vest.

You're seeing a lack of touching that I'm not, at by news reports, others aren't either. The accusation is physically groping, and the picture seems to support it.

https://www.bustle.com/p/why-sen-al-fra ... ny-5488610 : "pretending to grope"
http://www.tmz.com/2017/11/16/senator-a ... arassment/ : "groping - or at least pretending to grope"
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/ar ... ns/546092/ "either groping or pretending to grope her breasts as she slept on a flight."
http://abc7.com/politics/franken-apolog ... r/2662586/ "pretending to grope"

Tweeden's accusation was of groping. Some sources took this at face value and didn't look at the picture. Other sources asked others who were on the USO tour looked closely at the photograph and discerned exactly what I've told you - that there was no actual gropery in the photo.

Yeah, no. "I feel disgusted with myself" isn't really the apology of someone that far off-base.

Franken had the unenviable task of trying to appease elements of his own party (which consider the sophomoric humor in question a mortal sin).

I tend to agree that they are generally not as credible, and a solely anonymous accusation shouldn't get much traction. That there seems to pretty obviously be a solid reason behind that anonymity, and that you have it in line with named sources, bolsters it.

Not really.

I've heard directly from a few women who worked for or with Senator Franken (this was back before the scandal broke, I haven't been asking away since then) and what they said was that he was great to work with and super respectful to everybody (similar to how the women of SNL talked about him in their letter of support earlier) - that, unlike certain other congresscritters, he actually listened to them.

There you go. Anonymous sources saying he's a great guy for women to work for.

A false story which they picked up on, it should be noted.

Yes, because they did exercise some caution.

Sure.

Should I take it, then that you are of the mind that the eight accusations are all false?

Possibly. They're not independent. That's the issue with follow-on accusations after the public scandal breaks (as opposed to, as in the Roy Moore case, running down multiple leads first before breaking the story).

I think Tweeden is lying outright for political cause. I don't have any confidence whatsoever in "anonymous sources," especially when we're talking about the level of vetting performed by an outlet like Jezebel, HuffPo, or any other tabloid-level outfit. I can buy Franken having put his hands in inappropriate locations in a few photo ops over the years, but I place little confidence in being able to judge the accusations true or false.

Tweeden's accusations aren't what I'm really talking about here-this is the staffer. Regardless, on Tweeden, if you want to talk about motivations, there are as many, if not more, driving someone to come on as a "character reference" than to be an accuser.

In this case, partisanship would be the big one.

Conyers, who had already had a paid-out accusation, was defended as an "icon" by Pelosi.

Conyers was right when he said a settlement wasn't an admission of guilt. It really doesn't look good, though. Although in his case, the fact that the stress of accusation sent the old guy into the hospital might have also had something to do with the timeline. I am under the impression that as soon as Pelosi decided he needed to go, he resigned within a day or two.

Franks was, it seems, directly pressured by Ryan to resign.

I would say "ordered."

If we're taking this solely from a political strategy perspective-its public opinion that matters more than anything else, and that public opinion had rather clearly turned against both Franken and Conyers.

Public opinion has short-term and long-term patterns.

Won a re-election campaign against political powerhouse Mike McFadden, a man who had nobly served the public in....well, nothing, because he'd never held public office in his life.

Like Franken in 2008.

The last time Franken went up against a real candidate, you have one of the closest elections in history, and a disputed one at that, in a Democratic wave year-before he had this on his record. Would you really give him good odds against someone like Pawlenty?

Yes. Provided that Democratic leadership had backed him, as opposed to ordering him to step down.

Conyers was a very different strategic decision (which, I think, is why he got cut loose more quickly). He's in a 100% safe district and near the end of his political career for age and health reasons. You're not losing many years of great legislating by throwing out Conyers.

Quote error on my part-you can that the one above is of them, I labeled the second half of their post as yours somehow-my apologies.

You messed up again with this one.

[Senkaku]

Tbh, it doesn't really matter if the accusations against Franken have merit or aren't as severe as the ones against others or whatever, from an optics perspective they're bad, and getting rid of him is the safest course of action for the party.

His seat isn't going to fall, and it leaves the GOP without anyone to twist into their bullshit whataboutist deflections. All this bickering and litigating over whether he was touching Tweeden's tits or not- it just can be completely bypassed. The GOP's hacks will not be able to say "well, look how the Democrats parsed whether or not Franken was really touching her in that photo" or equate him to Roy Moore. The Democrats can be the ones who put country over party and made one of their own step down, while the GOP is so power-hungry they'd rather elect a child predator than lose a seat.

Now, since America is insane and nothing, especially the truth, matters any more, I don't know if this will actually effect things at all, but it puts the Dems on a solid base to argue from, anyways.

Minnesota doesn't even have ten million people.

He insinuated 14% of the entire party wanted Franken's resignation based on that poll. I don't think 84 people can speak for the entire party.

I think this has been the argument of everyone who has ever not liked a poll, tbh. 600 is a bit small, but it's not that bad.

[San Lumen]

Tbh, it doesn't really matter if the accusations against Franken have merit or aren't as severe as the ones against others or whatever, from an optics perspective they're bad, and getting rid of him is the safest course of action for the party.

His seat isn't going to fall, and it leaves the GOP without anyone to twist into their bullshit whataboutist deflections. All this bickering and litigating over whether he was touching Tweeden's tits or not- it just can be completely bypassed. The GOP's hacks will not be able to say "well, look how the Democrats parsed whether or not Franken was really touching her in that photo" or equate him to Roy Moore. The Democrats can be the ones who put country over party and made one of their own step down, while the GOP is so power-hungry they'd rather elect a child predator than lose a seat.

Now, since America is insane and nothing, especially the truth, matters any more, I don't know if this will actually effect things at all, but it puts the Dems on a solid base to argue from, anyways.

He insinuated 14% of the entire party wanted Franken's resignation based on that poll. I don't think 84 people can speak for the entire party.

I think this has been the argument of everyone who has ever not liked a poll, tbh. 600 is a bit small, but it's not that bad.

certain areas will elect anyone with an R next to their name no matter what. I think Roy Moore could shoot a gun off at someone and still win. Montana elected a congressman who assaulted a reporter.

[Senkaku]

certain areas will elect anyone with an R next to their name no matter what. I think Roy Moore could shoot a gun off at someone and still win. Montana elected a congressman who assaulted a reporter.

See, my main problem here is that the Democrats will, in all likelihood, be too stupid, underfunded, apathetic, and ineffective to actually use the mountains of ammunition they're being handed by the administration and its gang of hooligans and hangers-on.

[San Lumen]

certain areas will elect anyone with an R next to their name no matter what. I think Roy Moore could shoot a gun off at someone and still win. Montana elected a congressman who assaulted a reporter.

See, my main problem here is that the Democrats will, in all likelihood, be too stupid, underfunded, apathetic, and ineffective to actually use the mountains of ammunition they're being handed by the administration and its gang of hooligans and hangers-on.

um they are using it. It worked in Virginia and hopefully it works elsewhere. Jones should be miles ahead after the child molester allegations but i have little faith he will win.

[Senkaku]

um they are using it. It worked in Virginia and hopefully it works elsewhere.

Please, keep counting all those eggs, I'm sure they'll all grow into fine and healthy chickens once they hatch.

[San Lumen]

um they are using it. It worked in Virginia and hopefully it works elsewhere.

Please, keep counting all those eggs, I'm sure they'll all grow into fine and healthy chickens once they hatch.

You do realize that the House of Delegates went from a 2/3rds republican majority to likely worst case scenario a 50-50 split. How did it happen you say? from a suburban wave and sweeping the city seats as well. Three seats are still not decided due to recounts.

If what happened in Virginia is replicated nationwide the House will flip as will many state legislatures. The democrats did amazingly well in local elections nationwide winning in areas they have not won in decades.

[Corrian]

certain areas will elect anyone with an R next to their name no matter what. I think Roy Moore could shoot a gun off at someone and still win. Montana elected a congressman who assaulted a reporter.

That one was affected by the fact it happened the day before the election. If it had more time to sink in, the results may have been different.

[Petrasylvania]

In a black comedy, Franken's vacant seat will be filled in by that squawking chicken Michelle Bachmann.

[Collatis]

He insinuated 14% of the entire party wanted Franken's resignation based on that poll. I don't think 84 people can speak for the entire party.

I think this has been the argument of everyone who has ever not liked a poll, tbh.

Pretty much.

certain areas will elect anyone with an R next to their name no matter what. I think Roy Moore could shoot a gun off at someone and still win. Montana elected a congressman who assaulted a reporter.

That one was affected by the fact it happened the day before the election. If it had more time to sink in, the results may have been different.

Agreed, especially considering Montana's independent streak. It's shown a consistent willingness to elect both Republicans and Democrats at the state level.

[Corrian]

Agreed, especially considering Montana's independent streak. It's shown a consistent willingness to elect both Republicans and Democrats at the state level.

Rob Quist may have that seat still in 2018

[Senkaku]

certain areas will elect anyone with an R next to their name no matter what. I think Roy Moore could shoot a gun off at someone and still win. Montana elected a congressman who assaulted a reporter.

That one was affected by the fact it happened the day before the election. If it had more time to sink in, the results may have been different.

If it had had more time to sink in, I find it just as likely that the GOP spin machine would've just revved into overdrive, as it has for Moore. But it's possible something would've changed, anyways.

[Collatis]

Agreed, especially considering Montana's independent streak. It's shown a consistent willingness to elect both Republicans and Democrats at the state level.

Rob Quist may have that seat still in 2018

It's certainly possible, the way things are going right now. I liked him, so I'll be happy if he wins.

[San Lumen]

Agreed, especially considering Montana's independent streak. It's shown a consistent willingness to elect both Republicans and Democrats at the state level.

Rob Quist may have that seat still in 2018

I hope so and Democrats make significant gains in the state legislature too

[Collatis]

That one was affected by the fact it happened the day before the election. If it had more time to sink in, the results may have been different.

If it had had more time to sink in, I find it just as likely that the GOP spin machine would've just revved into overdrive, as it has for Moore. But it's possible something would've changed, anyways.

Possibly, but it's important to remember that Montana is not Alabama. And Moore may not win regardless.

[Senkaku]

If it had had more time to sink in, I find it just as likely that the GOP spin machine would've just revved into overdrive, as it has for Moore. But it's possible something would've changed, anyways.

Possibly, but it's important to remember that Montana is not Alabama. And Moore may not win regardless.

Given that he's once again eclipsed Jones in the polls, I think it's more or less a sure thing. Disappointing, but typical.

[Corrian]

If it had had more time to sink in, I find it just as likely that the GOP spin machine would've just revved into overdrive, as it has for Moore. But it's possible something would've changed, anyways.

Possibly, but it's important to remember that Montana is not Alabama. And Moore may not win regardless.

I don't think a candidate like Moore would stand a chance in Montana.

[San Lumen]

Possibly, but it's important to remember that Montana is not Alabama. And Moore may not win regardless.

Given that he's once again eclipsed Jones in the polls, I think it's more or less a sure thing. Disappointing, but typical.

well we will found out for sure on Tuesday. I have little faith in the people of Alabama to not elect Moore. its quite sick honestly that they seem to want a child molester as their senator. Senator Cory Booker rightfully said he fears for the safety of Senate Pages.

[San Lumen]

Possibly, but it's important to remember that Montana is not Alabama. And Moore may not win regardless.

I don't think a candidate like Moore would stand a chance in Montana.

They also said Trump didn't stand a chance nationwide.

[Senkaku]

Senator Cory Booker rightfully said he fears for the safety of Senate Pages.

Lmao

[San Lumen]

Senator Cory Booker rightfully said he fears for the safety of Senate Pages.

Lmao

Why is that even remotely funny?

[USS Monitor]

Given that he's once again eclipsed Jones in the polls, I think it's more or less a sure thing. Disappointing, but typical.

well we will found out for sure on Tuesday. I have little faith in the people of Alabama to not elect Moore. its quite sick honestly that they seem to want a child molester as their senator. Senator Cory Booker rightfully said he fears for the safety of Senate Pages.

Booker can just body slam Moore if he gets out of line, since it's apparently OK for politicians to body slam people now.

[Senkaku]

Lmao

Why is that even remotely funny?

Because Booker is ridiculous and yet that's also somehow now a possibility lol

[San Lumen]

well we will found out for sure on Tuesday. I have little faith in the people of Alabama to not elect Moore. its quite sick honestly that they seem to want a child molester as their senator. Senator Cory Booker rightfully said he fears for the safety of Senate Pages.

Booker can just body slam Moore if he gets out of line, since it's apparently OK for politicians to body slam people now.

If a Republican does it they get elected but a Democrat has to resign.