[UK] General Election 2017 Superthread

[Eastfield Lodge]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/20/jeremy-corbyn-calls-on-theresa-may-to-drop-anti-pensioner-package

Is telling your opponent to drop really unpopular policy pledges really that wise an idea?

[Vassenor]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/20/jeremy-corbyn-calls-on-theresa-may-to-drop-anti-pensioner-package

Is telling your opponent to drop really unpopular policy pledges really that wise an idea?

If she does, it can be used to make her look weak. If she doesn't, it can be spun as her not caring about her core voter base.

[The BlAAtschApen]

http://newsthump.com/2017/05/19/government-unveils-absolutely-fantastic-new-regulations-about-what-people-can-say-online/

Brilliant Government unveils absolutely fantastic new regulations about what people can say online

thumbs up

New regulations on what can be posted, shared and published online are an absolutely brilliant idea and will make everything better for everyone.

The rules, which are being proposed by people who are your friends and just want the best for everyone, will improve the Internet by making sure only approved content is shared – which is in your and our interest.

The Internet will be run in the best interest of The People, who have a tremendous track record, so rest assured your pals in government know just how to make this the best Internet ever – where you won’t have to worry about seeing anything that might upset you.

Simon Williams, managing editor of NewsThump told us, “These changes can only make our content better. By ensuring we don’t write anything offensive or untrue, the whole Internet satire business will improve beyond recognition.

“I think everyone over here at NewsThump Towers agrees that having a bureaucracy to oversee our content will guarantee we only produce the finest of material, which will allow us to focus on what really matters – not upsetting anyone in government.”

excellent article. can't agree more.

please continue voting tory, so they can make the internet safer for everyone.

They will especially make the internet safer for us, non-Brits

[Philjia]

Whoever writes Facebook posts for Theresa May appears to have had some kind of breakdown: https://www.facebook.com/TheresaMayOffi ... 5726281193

[Calladan]

Whoever writes Facebook posts for Theresa May appears to have had some kind of breakdown: https://www.facebook.com/TheresaMayOffi ... 5726281193

You do remember David Cameron once tweeted that The Labour Party was "now a threat to the security of Britain, your family and the world", right?

[Vassenor]

Whoever writes Facebook posts for Theresa May appears to have had some kind of breakdown: https://www.facebook.com/TheresaMayOffi ... 5726281193

So yeah, tl;dr: "you have to vote for me to save democracy".

[Bakery Hill]

If I were Theresa May I would be worried. She may just snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

[Bakery Hill]

Whoever writes Facebook posts for Theresa May appears to have had some kind of breakdown: https://www.facebook.com/TheresaMayOffi ... 5726281193

Jesus, look at the comments, they're losing the Facebook war.

[Dooom35796821595]

If I were Theresa May I would be worried. She may just snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Leaving labour with the thankless task of negotiating Brexit.

[Bakery Hill]

If I were Theresa May I would be worried. She may just snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Leaving labour with the thankless task of negotiating Brexit.

Good stuff.

[The Wolfiad]

May's bottled it. She'll still win even if these polls hold up, but the perception of her invincibility will evaporate. Expect a Tory challenge in the next few years from either the Thatcherite or liberal wing if she fluffs a budget, gets a bad Brexit deal etc.

[Philjia]

May's bottled it. She'll still win even if these polls hold up, but the perception of her invincibility will evaporate. Expect a Tory challenge in the next few years from either the Thatcherite or liberal wing if she fluffs a budget, gets a bad Brexit deal etc.

It's like she looked at her massive lead and decided to see if she could make it go away. She couldn't, but she gave it a good go.

[The Wolfiad]

May's bottled it. She'll still win even if these polls hold up, but the perception of her invincibility will evaporate. Expect a Tory challenge in the next few years from either the Thatcherite or liberal wing if she fluffs a budget, gets a bad Brexit deal etc.

It's like she looked at her massive lead and decided to see if she could make it go away. She couldn't, but she gave it a good go.

Farron's also bottled it. I'll link the relevant poll when I find it, but I believe Corbyn may have better approval figures than him now. If Vince Cable gets elected, he could feasibly challenge Farron and win I think.

EDIT: https://twitter.com/britainelects/statu ... 5063836672

T. May: 48 / 31 (+17)
J. Corbyn: 27 / 45 (-18)
T. Farron: 16 / 37 (-21)
P. Nuttall: 10 / 46 (-36)

Under current polling figures, the winners would be Corbyn, who has a better shot at surviving a leadership challenge and all the Scottish unionist party Leaders who should make gains (Labour plausibly could win East Renfrewshire or East Lothian, but even only holding Edinburgh South is a colossal victory). The losers would be every other Leader and the country, who has to deal with an inept Prime Minister and an inept Opposition.

[Calladan]

If I were Theresa May I would be worried. She may just snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Leaving labour with the thankless task of negotiating Brexit.

So my wacky theory that this was what she planned all along might actually be true? That would be a remarkable and very strange event in my life

[Chestaan]

Conservative lead over Labour halved since last YouGov poll

[Souseiseki]

Conservative lead over Labour halved since last YouGov poll

fair warning if may fucks it up so badly that corbyn somehow wins i will probably get myself banned by making jam jokes

[Chestaan]

Conservative lead over Labour halved since last YouGov poll

fair warning if may fucks it up so badly that corbyn somehow wins i will probably get myself banned by making jam jokes

I think that would definitely be worth it

May is up still by 9 percent, but seeing as she has blew such a large part of her lead already maybe its not too insane for me to hope for a miracle...

[Philjia]

Conservative lead over Labour halved since last YouGov poll

fair warning if may fucks it up so badly that corbyn somehow wins i will probably get myself banned by making jam jokes

If Corbyn wins I will consume three whole teaspoonfuls of Marmite on camera for everyone to watch.

[Anywhere Else But Here]

fair warning if may fucks it up so badly that corbyn somehow wins i will probably get myself banned by making jam jokes

If Corbyn wins I will consume three whole teaspoonfuls of Marmite on camera for everyone to watch.

Just making sure this gets quoted. No editing it on the 9th!

[Eastfield Lodge]

Leaving labour with the thankless task of negotiating Brexit.

So my wacky theory that this was what she planned all along might actually be true? That would be a remarkable and very strange event in my life

We'll only know for sure when May/current Tory party higher-ups writes their memoirs in 10-20 years.

[Ifreann]

Conservative lead over Labour halved since last YouGov poll

fair warning if may fucks it up so badly that corbyn somehow wins i will probably get myself banned by making jam jokes

I can dig it.

[Socialist Nordia]

So how well is the SNP expected to do? There's not much room for improvement from last election, but will they maintain their dominance in Scotland?

[Monte Cristo]

Of course, I could be wrong. But I did predict a narrow Tory majority in 2015. (Albeit I predicted they'd win slightly more than they did; I said 335-340 when they actually won 330.)

Despite every single opinion poll, including both big exit polls on the day, calling for hung parliament? Wow.

Actually, in the final days of campaigning, 2 polls predicted a Conservative majority. One of them was the internal, private Labour Party poll. The other was by a phone poll by YouGov or someone. It was dismissed as an outlier.

Edit: I also, based on the 1992 result, predicted there'd be a "shy Tory" effect and that it was probably as big as in 1992.

Speaking of that Labour poll, there are rumours abound (as there always is) that the Labour poll this time round is far more dire. It apparently showed Labour polling nearer to 20% and the Tories set to win 420 or more seats.

Even if the rumour is true, the ground has almost certainly shifted enough to make it irrelevant. As I stated in my previous post, the Tories are beginning to piss away their lead: one poll has it down to 9 points – the first single figure lead for them over Labour since January.

[Monte Cristo]

Also saying there'll be no Lib Dem fight back

At this stage of the election, this is looking likely.

The campaign started off optimistically enough given the combination of a surge in membership and a modest rise in poll ratings. However, at this point it's clear that not only are things not going as well as I'd hoped, there's a serious danger (from the LibDem perspective) that the party will lose seats.

I lack the time to type up a detailed analysis right now - my wife is reminding me it's time to do the Saturday shopping - but might type one up later today.

I think Farron's problem is that, however sensible it might be to say, "Let's have a second vote once we know the terms of Brexit", there's just no public appetite for one. In the latest poll on the subject, 68% of people say Brexit should now happen. Some of them may not agree with it, but the vast majority just want to get on with it.

The thing is, according to that same poll, the U.K. is now divided into 3 camps on Brexit: "hard Leavers" (46%), "hard Remainers" (22%) and "Re-Leavers" (24%); the latter being those who voted to remain but now think the government has a duty to see through the decision to leave the EU.

The Lib Dems are fishing for votes from a fraction of those 22% of "hard remainers", hence their poll numbers are struggling to surpass 10% – less than half of "hard remainers" (in respect to that poll).

In 2014, Scotland rejected the SNP's independence bid. In 2015, the SNP won 50% of the vote and 95% of the seats. Sturgeon ran with the argument, "This isn't about a second referendum, it's about Scotland having a strong voice in Westminster" I mean, she lied but her tactic worked: people could safely vote for the SNP knowing there was no second referendum.

Farron has gone about his campaign backwards. Right from the start he's rejected (he says "accepted" but he has categorically rejected) the initial referendum result. Again, it is perfectly reasonable to suggest a second referendum once we know what the hell brexit looks like but the problem is the average Brit sees it as someone stomping his feet saying, "No! No! No!"

Farron should've copied Sturgeon: "We accept the referendum result. The matter is settled*. Our campaign isn't about a second referendum, it's about the need for a strong opposition at Westminster." Rather than blindly pursue "the 48%" (that doesn't exist anymore - it's now "the 22%"), he should have stood explicitly on a platform to replace Labour as the credible opposition we need - not to May's "extreme Brexit" but to May's "extreme everything else". (For example, the IP Act that is so invasive Kim Jong-un would raise an eyebrow.) Then at some point in the future – a la Sturgeon – push for a second referendum.

I honestly want(ed) the Lib Dems as the main opposition and to one day even be government. But this was a once in a generation chance and they've set off on completely the wrong path.

[Frank Zipper]

Whoever writes Facebook posts for Theresa May appears to have had some kind of breakdown: https://www.facebook.com/TheresaMayOffi ... 5726281193

Jesus, look at the comments, they're losing the Facebook war.

I'm not sure that people who use Facebook bother to vote.

If Vince Cable gets elected, he could feasibly challenge Farron and win I think.

Vince is too old to challenge.