Annual general elections in Monchecken are to be held on Friday the 6th of January 2017 to elect all 300 members of the Chamber of Pop in Monchecken, the lower but more powerful house in Parliament, with results expected in the early hours of Saturday the 7th. Elections to the Chamber are held using a Mixed Member Proportional system with 200 electorate seats elected using a simple plurality first past the post system whilst the remaining 100 seats are elected on a closed list proportional basis. The election threshold for a party to gain representation is 5% (or winning an electorate seat.) With 300 seats in the Chamber of Pop, (plus any overhang), 151 seats are required to form a government.
At the last election in January 2016 the National Party, a centre-right major party, won 152 seats giving them a majority of just one in one of the closest elections in decades. The Liberal party, the other major party, gained seats but their usual coalition partners the Social Democrats, a major third party, lost seats to the Nationals missing out on the chance of government. Because of the precarious seat situation the National government led by Prime Minister Nathaniel Jools formed a confidence and supply agreement with far right populist party Independent Monchecken which brought them great criticism and unpopularity amongst many voters. The Liberals under their leader Oscar Luyss have continued to promote their vision of modern, social liberalism and an expanded welfare system. In any other year they would have seemed set for a return to government with the Social Democrats but the rise of right wing populism and anti-establishment politics across the world and the election of the very left wing William Lusk as leader of the Social Democrats has thrown that into question. Lusk has broken with many longstanding SocDem policies and upset many within his own party and his Liberal partners by turning dramatically to the left.
On the horizon the far right populist and authoritarian party Independent Monchecken are riding high on their four seats from last year's election, which came from nothing. Formerly a fringe party they now hold real power with their National confidence/supply agreement. The Tribalist Party meanwhile are also appealing to anti-establishment sentiment with their promise of a return to a formerly great tribal inspired society of living though in truth they aren't too dissimilar to Independent Monchecken. It was also a good year for the free market libertarian United Tax party which started as a tax protest group and gained its first seat. Independents look set to suffer however due to the better organised minor parties.
The major issue of the past year and of this election looks set to be the foreign situation with Creckon. Monchecken's nearest neighbour, Creckon, since its takeover by a nationalistic and authoritarian regime in 2009, has made a serious of threats to Monchecken. Although the two are separated by 500 miles of ocean Creckon's vast population outnumbers Monchecken's ten million souls dramatically. Military build ups by Creckon on its borders have had defence spending in Monchecken on the rise and many of the country's conscripts worried. The Liberals, usually seen as soft on defence, have promised increases and better equipment. The Nationals, playing on their reputation as the party of defence, have used the worries over Creckon to focus almost their entire campaign on the situation. The Social Democrats meanwhile have raised eyebrows with Lusk calling for defence cuts and even suggesting the Moncheck universal conscription system, in force since 1950 and seen as a bedrock of Monchecken's defence, could be scrapped.
Other election issues on the agenda include the welfare system, baby bonus benefits, green environmental protection, free trade policies and constitutional reform. The parties positions on the political compass and their key ideologies and policies are outlined below:
The National Party
Centre-Right, Some Right
Key ideologies: Conservatism, Economic Liberalism, Moncheck civil nationalism, Socially moderate with some socially conservative members.
Key bases: The elderly, business people, upper middle class, upper class, farmers, religiously devout.
Leader: Nathaniel Jools
The National Party are the current governing party with a majority of just one in the Chamber of Pop. They have been in government for three years since the 2014 general election where they beat a ten year Liberal-Social Democrat government. Nathaniel Jools' government proved relatively popular initially with welfare cuts they claimed were necessary and a more socially moderate stance on some controversial issues like abortion. However their reduction to a one seat majority in 2016 left them requiring to form a supply and confidence agreement with Independent Monchecken which was condemned in some circles. The rising threat of Creckon has led to a rise in their fortunes however with them making defence spending increases and making defence one of, if not the, key issue of the election. Jools will hope he can increase his majority, even slightly, and have a fourth year of power.
The Liberal Party
Centre, Centre-left
Key ideologies: Liberalism, Social (modern) liberalism, Keynesianism, Internationalism, soft environmentalism or ecologicalism, some classical liberals.
Key bases: Educated degree holders, middle to lower middle class, students, urban livers, creatives.
Leader: Oscar Luyss
The Liberal Party are the main opposition party with a current standing of 71 in the Chamber of Pop. Since the 1950s they have governed in coalition with the Social Democrats though there have been times, the last being 2011 when they had enough seats to govern alone but continued in coalition. The last time the Liberals were in power was the 2004-14 government, the longest government in Moncheck history and considered a golden period for the party with social reforms. The new leader Oscar Luyss was elected in 2014 and at first struggled to define his new leadership in the shadow of the Woolford Lib-SocDem 04-14 ministry. In 2015 he began to gain popularity as a young, charismatic and moderate politician with his quiet nature winning support from many in comparison to the often angry styles of his contemporaries. Luyss will hope to appeal to many disaffected National supporters with his new focus on defence and promise of spending increases, casting aside the soft on defence claim that has always befallen the Liberals. However he has also focused on welfare reform, a constitutional commission to examine changes to the role of the King, electoral practices and a drawback on some of the National's free market policies with more state involvement. Luyss has also reclaimed the green mantle from the Social Democrats endorsing many soft ecological positions. Luyss would find himself in a good position in a normal election year but the rise of populism and the Social Democrat's turn to the left may complicate his chances of forming a new Liberal led coalition government.
The Social Democrat Party
Centre-left, Left, Some far left
Key ideologies: Socialism, Democratic socialism, Collectivism, Social democracy, Isolationism, Socially moderate, some Third Way.
Key bases: Workers, working class, some rural voters, students, non-conformists, unions.
Leader: William Lusk
Since their foundation in the 1940s the Social Democrats have been a dominant third party, always playing a substantial, though junior, role in a coalition with the Liberals. Whilst traditionally socialist in the old sense they moved closer to the centre in the 1960s and embraced more social democracy and liberalism. The election of William Lusk as leader, and his recent re-election, has however brought them far closer and in some cases beyond their traditional left wing roots. Lusk denounced many of his former colleague's work in the 04-14 government just as much as he denounced the current National government. He has called for defence spending cuts, dismissed threats from Creckon as nonsense and hinted at ends for the longstanding system of conscription. Economically Lusk has called for a massive increase in state control and some form of a highly planned or command economy. To many within his own party he is coloured a populist as much as the small far right parties. Lusk, despite criticising many of his Liberal partners, will hope to become deputy Prime Minister and form a new coalition government with them.
Tribalist Party
Centre-left to Centre-right, Some claim no political identification
Key ideologies: Primitivism (in various forms), social conservatism, anti-establishment, populism, state control economy.
Key bases: Anarchist students, tribal dwellers.
Leader: None (Collective council).
The Tribalists surprised many by winning eight seats in last year's elections. Their politics are strange and unclear but generally support the idea that an old Moncheck tribal inspired society is the best way forward. This strange combination combines primitive ideas with socially conservative and often authoritarian ideas about leaders and obedience. They have responded to the defence issue with promises to slowly cut defence spending as they would slowly cut all state spending. Some have called them communist whilst others have called them libertarian. Their main support comes from so-called tribal dwellers who live in modern tribal systems and radical students.
Independent Monchecken
Far right, Some right, Economically left
Key ideologies: Populism, Anti-Establishment politics, Social conservatism, Authoritarianism, Isolationism, Anti-immigration.
Key bases: Disaffected National and Social Democrat supporters, the elderly.
Leader: Paulus Gedon
Independent Monchecken take their name from the idea that Monchecken, threatened by Creckon historically and currently, is no longer independent or free. They are a recently established populist party which has claimed it is the vanguard of a people trying to save Monchecken. Initially a nothing fringe movement Independent Monchecken unexpectedly won four electorate seats last year despite winning just less than the 5% election threshold proportionally. Their sudden election and sudden importance in the form of joining a confidence and supply agreement with the Nationals, enthralling their supporters and horrifying others. They have campaigned on defence as their almost sole issue promising humungous defence spending increases and an aggressive, pre-emptive foreign policy towards Creckon. In other areas they have endorsed socially conservative and anti-immigration positions blaming welfare problems on minority groups and calling for abortion restrictions as well as positioning themselves economically on the left, calling for an end to free trade and massive protectionism, employment laws that favour natives and infrastructure projects-though they have not clarified or explained what these projects would be.
United Tax Party
Right, some Centre-right
Key ideologies: Libertarianism, Economic liberalism, Classical liberalism, Isolationism, Minimalism, populism.
Key bases: Business people, economists, upper class.
Leader: Josie Farnfour
The United Tax Party began life as the United Tax Alliance in 2006 as part of a protest against the Lib-SocDem govt's tax rises. Whilst it only has one seat many expect it to do well offering, as it does, an alternative take on the anti-establishment world feeling. The party endorses libertarian ideals as it basis with an isolationist policy and a freeze on defence spending. It has endorsed more free trade and free market policies, welfare spending reductions and less environmental protection with a minimalist government as its end game. It hopes to win more seats and views a hung Parliament as a good situation to broker something in.
You may vote once. Think of your vote as mainly representing the proportional aspect of the Chamber. However, it will have some bearing on the electorate seats and overall result as well, so the vote counts for both. There will be updates throughout the next week and a bit. Endorsements and questions from foreign parties and individuals are welcome.