UK Referendum Thread [Moderator Sanctioned]

[Kaztropol]

I wonder.

Do we know how (or if), the former Spice Girls voted ?

I want to know if Geri Halliwell's Union Jack mini-dress is going to come back into fashion.

[Frank Zipper]

Oh, would you look at that. British stock market has already recovered. Black Monday, an actual long-term stock market crash, for comparison (note the lack of recovery in under a day).

Gosh, I'm almost bored with being right about literally everything literally all the time/s

Seriously though, surprised it recovered so quickly. I expected a few weeks or months.

You are basing this on one day of trading.

[Arkolon]

Boris unwilling to push for triggering Art50, DC pushed it way back into Oct; there's a nonzero probability it is never invoked.

[Neu Leonstein]

-snip-

Maybe give it a few days before you proclaim anything... Equity markets are irrelevant, and that aside that first blip down was a lack of liquidity more than anything, with Mark Carney's statement helping out. Even so it still finished down 3%. That's not a recovery in my book.

And meanwhile, exchange rates and yields (you know, macroeconomically relevant indicators) are also looking pretty shit so far.

[New Chalcedon]

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon says she will seek "immediate discussions" with Brussels to "protect Scotland's place in the EU" after UK's vote to leave.

she's actually doing it the absolute mad(wo)man

It seems that you don't understand the degree of anti-Westminster hostility in Scotland. Here's the short version: The outcome of the last referendum was vote to put Westminster on probation. Given the incredibly stupid way Cameron's acted throughout, including but not limited to breaking many of the promises he made to the Better Together campaigners, he may well go down in British history as the PM who destroyed the UK.

[Frank Zipper]

It is kind of rubbish that the government doesn't seem to have had any contingency plans in place for the referendum coming down in favour of Brexit.

[Arkolon]

-snip-

Maybe give it a few days before you proclaim anything... Equity markets are irrelevant, and that aside that first blip down was a lack of liquidity more than anything, with Mark Carney's statement helping out. Even so it still finished down 3%. That's not a recovery in my book.

And meanwhile, exchange rates and yields (you know, macroeconomically relevant indicators) are also looking pretty shit so far.

And UK banks are also in the shitter, cable very reluctant to pierce 1.40 for a while... doesn't look like a recovery, it looks like a new, lower normal.

[New Chalcedon]

Boris unwilling to push for triggering Art50, DC pushed it way back into Oct; there's a nonzero probability it is never invoked.

After the outcome of the referendum? Any government which fails to invoke Art50 can kiss the Treasury benches goodbye; it'll be routed at the next election. Indeed, unless the remainder of its term is marked by large gains for Main St., it may well be obliterated entirely as a significant political party.

[Valaran]

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon says she will seek "immediate discussions" with Brussels to "protect Scotland's place in the EU" after UK's vote to leave.

she's actually doing it the absolute mad(wo)man

It seems that you don't understand the degree of anti-Westminster hostility in Scotland.

Or, just maybe, Souseiseki was making a joke.

After all, I'm pretty sure he understand the anti-Westminster hostility in Scotland, given that, well, he is in Scotland.

[New Chalcedon]

It is kind of rubbish that the government doesn't seem to have had any contingency plans in place for the referendum coming down in favour of Brexit.

Cameron thought he was calling the Eurosceptics' bluff - he never once contemplated that people might actually vote to Leave.

[Minzerland]

Boris unwilling to push for triggering Art50, DC pushed it way back into Oct; there's a nonzero probability it is never invoked.

...

[Hyfling]

Oh, would you look at that. British stock market has already recovered. Black Monday, an actual long-term stock market crash, for comparison (note the lack of recovery in under a day).

Gosh, I'm almost bored with being right about literally everything literally all the time/s

Seriously though, surprised it recovered so quickly. I expected a few weeks or months.

You are basing this on one day of trading.

-snip-

Maybe give it a few days before you proclaim anything... Equity markets are irrelevant, and that aside that first blip down was a lack of liquidity more than anything, with Mark Carney's statement helping out. Even so it still finished down 3%. That's not a recovery in my book.

And meanwhile, exchange rates and yields (you know, macroeconomically relevant indicators) are also looking pretty shit so far.

I know, mostly taking the piss. If you look closely at one of those fullstops you'll see a secret '/s', obviously still a lot to come and it will be interesting to see how it all pans out.

Just feeling a bit smug over the 'GFC 2.0 WE'RE ALL DOOMED!!' people in yesterdays thread who were openly mocking everyone that was saying this market reaction was expected, since no major economic crisis in the world has returned to the pre-crisis index level in under a day. If there's a British recession as a result of Brexit, it'll happen shortly before or sometime after the UK leaves, not this early.

[Frank Zipper]

It is kind of rubbish that the government doesn't seem to have had any contingency plans in place for the referendum coming down in favour of Brexit.

Cameron thought he was calling the Eurosceptics' bluff - he never once contemplated that people might actually vote to Leave.

We've known right from the start of polling that the result would be close, it was incompetent not to plan for it.

[Elepis]

No, it shows a factor of being what European is, it does not sum up in any way how I feel

I never said the nationalists should care, all I was saying was my opinion but you seem to be disagreeing with what my opinion is. Not disagreeing with what I am saying but just telling me what I think

When the definition changes to what you believe a European is, then I'll agree with you.

Never told you what you thought, actually.

I, personally, don't take you all that seriously; especially when you disregard the democratic process when it disagrees with you.

That is not the absolute definition though, it is just one you pulled off the internet for your own purposes

then why are you agreeing? I never said what we should do, I just said what I felt

And I don't take anyone who voted leave seriously because they obviously don't understand the EU, the word rebate, immigration or the last 100 years of European history

[Arkolon]

Boris unwilling to push for triggering Art50, DC pushed it way back into Oct; there's a nonzero probability it is never invoked.

After the outcome of the referendum? Any government which fails to invoke Art50 can kiss the Treasury benches goodbye; it'll be routed at the next election. Indeed, unless the remainder of its term is marked by large gains for Main St., it may well be obliterated entirely as a significant political party.

If the government waits long enough, sees the Tory leadership election deteriorate so badly a new GE is called, and apathy/turnout changes in favour of a reluctant/less eurosceptic Tory or even a non-Tory (really unlikely) government, the mandate is replaced. Nothing has been done that is so far legally binding, so it leaves a lot of doors open for any outcome, despite how very unlikely they are.

[Neu Leonstein]

And UK banks are also in the shitter, cable very reluctant to pierce 1.40 for a while... doesn't look like a recovery, it looks like a new, lower normal.

I figure it's just going to react sharply to news headlines and rumours for the next little while. Problem is that right now no one has any clue what the options even are, let alone their probabilities. Carney promising BoE backstops for the dealers helped limit immediate panic, but the macroeconomic impact from here is just a complete unknown. Only thing I would be comfortable predicting is lots of volatility!

[Elepis]

Oh, would you look at that. British stock market has already recovered. Black Monday, an actual long-term stock market crash, for comparison (note the lack of recovery in under a day).

Gosh, I'm almost bored with being right about literally everything literally all the time/s

Seriously though, surprised it recovered so quickly. I expected a few weeks or months.

*he says while the FTSE 250 is still in the shits*

[Valaran]

And UK banks are also in the shitter, cable very reluctant to pierce 1.40 for a while... doesn't look like a recovery, it looks like a new, lower normal.

I figure it's just going to react sharply to news headlines and rumours for the next little while. Problem is that right now no one has any clue what the options even are, let alone their probabilities. Carney promising BoE backstops for the dealers helped limit immediate panic, but the macroeconomic impact from here is just a complete unknown. Only thing I would be comfortable predicting is lots of volatility!

I think one of the likely results is lower long term trends in growth, arising from lost opportunities and increased costs. Unless certain deals are reached, but they are very unlikely.

[Valaran]

I know, mostly taking the piss. If you look closely at one of those fullstops you'll see a secret '/s', obviously still a lot to come and it will be interesting to see how it all pans out.

It was a very small s

[Minzerland]

When the definition changes to what you believe a European is, then I'll agree with you.

Never told you what you thought, actually.

I, personally, don't take you all that seriously; especially when you disregard the democratic process when it disagrees with you.

That is not the absolute definition though, it is just one you pulled off the internet for your own purposes

then why are you agreeing? I never said what we should do, I just said what I felt

And I don't take anyone who voted leave seriously because they obviously don't understand the EU, the word rebate, immigration or the last 100 years of European history

It's the offical definition in many dictionaries.

And I disagree with what you felt.

I didn't vote.

[Frank Zipper]

Lord Hill resigns (maybe pushed) as an EU commissioner.

[Valaran]

Lord Hill resigns (maybe pushed) as an EU commissioner.

His position was basically untenable at this stage anyway. But yeah :/

[Elepis]

That is not the absolute definition though, it is just one you pulled off the internet for your own purposes

then why are you agreeing? I never said what we should do, I just said what I felt

And I don't take anyone who voted leave seriously because they obviously don't understand the EU, the word rebate, immigration or the last 100 years of European history

It's the offical definition in many dictionaries.

And I disagree with what you felt.

I didn't vote.

Which dictionaries? and as I have said before, I was talking about what I feel, not what Mr fucking Webster feels

Well done

I never said you

[Arkolon]

You are basing this on one day of trading.

Maybe give it a few days before you proclaim anything... Equity markets are irrelevant, and that aside that first blip down was a lack of liquidity more than anything, with Mark Carney's statement helping out. Even so it still finished down 3%. That's not a recovery in my book.

And meanwhile, exchange rates and yields (you know, macroeconomically relevant indicators) are also looking pretty shit so far.

I know, mostly taking the piss. If you look closely at one of those fullstops you'll see a secret '/s', obviously still a lot to come and it will be interesting to see how it all pans out.

Just feeling a bit smug over the 'GFC 2.0 WE'RE ALL DOOMED!!' people in yesterdays thread who were openly mocking everyone that was saying this market reaction was expected, since no major economic crisis in the world has returned to the pre-crisis index level in under a day. If there's a British recession as a result of Brexit, it'll happen shortly before or sometime after the UK leaves, not this early.

Brexit caused a dollar spike and 40% of the world economy is dollar-tied. Coupled with the large and growing amounts of dollar-debt outside the US it means that real debt burdens spike - Fed rate hikes off the table for the near future. Brexit won't cause a recession in many places outside the UK, but there is no doubt Brexit was a large-scale monetary shock (probably the largest since 08) which has fundamentally fragilised the world economy.

[Frank Zipper]

Boris unwilling to push for triggering Art50, DC pushed it way back into Oct; there's a nonzero probability it is never invoked.

I don't think the EU will stand for that.