State elections seen as a blow to Lindkwist, mixed result for SAP
SAP makes gains in Chamrland, nationalists surge in Makeland
5 October 2015
Astangjr — In a hotly contested election in Chamrland, Socialist Labour and other opposition parties made major gains and unseated the incumbent centre-right coalition, while in Makeland nationalist parties took home a majority of seats in the state legislature.
In Chamrland, the SAP nearly doubled their vote share and won 27 seats in the 63 seat State Diet, gaining 12 seats. The Green Left Party, which finished with four seats, and People's Party, which finished with three, also made gains, while all three parties represented in Lindkwist's federal coalition government lost seats. The Conservatives were particularly hard hit, winning just 14 seats – down nine. The Pirate Party also lost its sole seat in the legislature.
"This is our chance," SAP leader Sixden Je̊nssunr – who Chamrland Crown Commissioner Filip Ärestörn has asked to form a coalition government – told supporters and press. "We have a chance to make our state better and to demonstrate the promise of an inclusive, social, and democratic society."
The vote in Chamrland was particularly closely watched given the state's history of being a political trendsetter. With a similar to average demographic and economic makeup to the country as a whole, the largest party in the state diet elections in Chamrland has gone on to form the government in the federal diet in all but one election since 1953, making the win a not insignificant morale boost to the federal SAP and particularly pointed blow to Lindkwist's government, already facing declining approval numbers.
The SAP campaign focused heavily on economic issues, which have been a weak point for the Conservatives in the wake of the 2014 market crash – and will likely remain at the forefront as Commerce ministry figures now predict a "double-dip" recession following crises this summer in Borgosesia and Styria, which have shaken economic confidence across Alisna.
In particular, uncertainty over the future of Gäjger A/F's struggling automotive unit undoubtedly weighed on voters' minds; Gäjger Automobiles employed more than 3,400 in the state before suspending or laying off 380 workers at its plant near Kürfeld over the summer. Gäjger hopes to sell off the subsidiary, possibly to a Guurkhun or Van Luxemburger investor, but with the federal government ruling out state aid – beyond a Kr 525 million ($89.88 million), Kr 7,000 per car scrappage programme – the company has laid out plans to shut down its car and motorcycle plants by March 2018, with the loss of at least 5,000 jobs, if no suitable buyer can be found. Thousands more auto industry job losses could also occur in the state if component manufacturers are forced to downsize or go out of business.
Je̊nssunr was also critical of the federal government's nuclear roadmap, which listed two locations in Chamrland, at Hrisa and Sjoraburh, on the short list of sites for a fourth nuclear power plant, which would supply electricity to central Sondstead and help achieve a complete phase-out of highly polluting lignite coal plants.
In Makeland, nationalists gain a legislative majority for the first time
Although polling and analysis in Makeland indicated that the nationalist Erakond Mägimaa, and its leader, First Minister Riina Veskimägi, would easily retain its position as the largest party in the state legislature, the party surprised by gaining 10 seats, putting it at 45 seats in the 98-seat Assembly. Together with the more radical, Republican Popular Confederation-aligned Makeish Workers' Nationalist Party, which held steady at 5 seats, the two nationalist parties, which cooperate with each other, combined will hold 50 seats – a narrow, one-seat majority – in the state legislature.
While the EM has been the governing party since 2005, and been a major force in state politics for the past century, it has in the past governed either as a minority or in coalition with non-nationalist forces. Nationalists holding a majority has the potential to be a turning point in the Makeish movement, possibly even reigniting ethnolinguistic tensions which were largely resolved in the 1979 settlement.
In particular, the result raises the possibility of a referendum on independence being called – although Veskimägi, a moderate, opposes a referendum, having previously called the idea of an "in-or-out" vote "divisive". Public sentiment has been opposed to independence; while polling results vary somewhat, they typically have shown only between 15% and 30% support – although a 2011 poll showed 58% support for a referendum despite only 29% of respondents favouring independence.
The SAP, which hoped for a strong result in Makeland – part of its traditional geographic base of support – unexpectedly lost three seats to finish at 15. The other non-nationalist parties also saw losses almost across the board; the Green Left Party lost two seats and finished at 6, the Centre Liberals lost two and finished at 5, and the Christian Democratic Alliance lost one seat and finished at 3. Only the regional Almai Interest party, which held at 3 seats, did not see losses.
While the state Conservative & Unionist Party lost a seat, its finish at 16 seats was a small silver lining for both the Conservatives and federalists – the result was much less dramatic than in Chamrland and left the Conservatives, and their state leader Rain Olesk, unexpectedly taking over the role of official opposition from the SAP.
Elections were also held in Saint Eustace, with the pro-independence Antillean Freedom Party gaining one seat at the expense of the Conservatives – finishing with 3 seats on the 19 seat Council. Despite the decreased majority, the coalition between the Progressive Party – which remained at 9 seats – and the territorial Conservatives remained in government with 10 seats between them.
