The Mod-Sanctioned Scottish Referendum Megathread

[Great Franconia and Verana]

With the polls open, it's crunch time.

Anyways, it will be fascinating to see how things unfold. Hopefully, it gives a strong mandate to a side, unlike the 1995 Quebec referendum. Hopefully Scotland votes No.

[The Archregimancy]

I draw some small comfort today that the history of referendum polling in western democratic societies over the last 20 years has tended to overestimate the 'Yes' vote.

This was certainly true in Quebec in 1995, where the final poll showed Yes's lead increasing in the run-up to the vote, and with a 6 point lead in the final poll; No famously won by the narrowest of margins.

And while I can't find the source (I thought it was politicalbetting.com, but apparently not), so you'll have to take my word for it, polling in the UK has overestimated the Yes vote in 12 out of the last 16 referenda (local, regional, and national) in the UK.

Certainly, in the AV referendum, most polling companies (with the notable exception of ICM) overestimated the Yes vote; vastly so in the case of YouGov - notably the only major company to show Yes with a lead in the Scottish vote in recent weeks (and the polling company that notably overestimated the 'Cleggasm' following the first leaders' debate in the 2010 UK general election).

I stress that I'm assuming nothing in terms of today's result - and I'd be the first to concede that these could be straws that I'm clutching at - merely noting a recurring recent (and apparently international) phenomenon in referendum polling.

[Baltenstein]

Arch changed his flag - shit just got real.

[The balkens]

Arch changed his flag - shit just got real.

Indeed.

[Kouralia]

plz be good
plz be good
plz be good
plz be good
plz be good

;-;

[Ainin]

The Chinese have come out for the Yes Vote.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/ ... endum.html

What about the other 1.36 billion Chinese, huh?

[Constantinopolis]

I was pleasently surprised by Gordon Brown's recent speech, putting the emotional/historic argument to the Yes campain, especialy since in the past he's appeared rather dull even by politician standards.

Wait wait wait... Did I catch that right? At 1:40, Gordon Brown says:

"From each according to his ability to contribute, to each according to his needs. And that is the best principle that can govern the life of our country today."

Holy shit. Gordon Brown has been possessed by the spirit of Karl Marx!

Well, at least now we know how he changed from a soulless robot to a firebrand orator so quickly.

[Imperializt Russia]

The Chinese Taiwanese have come out for the Yes Vote.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/ ... endum.html

FTFY

Naturally, I don't expect anything less from pro-independence Taiwanese. Problem is, unlike Scotland, they have Red China breathing down their necks with a whole lot of weapons and manpower waiting across the straits, and it's much harder to say if they'll not send in the troops in the event that Taiwan employs a similar referendum.

China has no amphibious capability, so it's going to wait across the strait for another five or ten years or more yet.

Chinese, however much the Pan-Green coalition likes to imagine they are differnt, Taiwan is still part of the Republic of China.

I just called them 'Taiwanese' because the term 'Chinese' has multiple meanings, one of which refers to those in the People's Republic of China. Simplifying them as 'Chinese' might give the impression that the PRC supports Scottish independence, which they don't.

Again, unsurprisingly.

I was pleasently surprised by Gordon Brown's recent speech, putting the emotional/historic argument to the Yes campain, especialy since in the past he's appeared rather dull even by politician standards.

Wait wait wait... Did I catch that right? At 1:40, Gordon Brown says:

"From each according to his ability to contribute, to each according to his needs. And that is the best principle that can govern the life of our country today."

Holy shit. Gordon Brown has been possessed by the spirit of Karl Marx!

Well, at least now we know how he changed from a soulless robot to a firebrand orator so quickly.

All glory to the Socialist Commonwealth of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland!

[The Archregimancy]

I was pleasently surprised by Gordon Brown's recent speech, putting the emotional/historic argument to the Yes campain, especialy since in the past he's appeared rather dull even by politician standards.

Wait wait wait... Did I catch that right? At 1:40, Gordon Brown says:

"From each according to his ability to contribute, to each according to his needs. And that is the best principle that can govern the life of our country today."

Holy shit. Gordon Brown has been possessed by the spirit of Karl Marx!

Actually, the French original 'de chacun selon ses facultés, à chacun selon ses besoins' predates Marx's use of the phrase by a quarter of a century.

It was first used by the French socialist Louis Blanc in his 1851 work Plus de Girondins.

http://books.google.ca/books?id=KFc9AAA ... &q&f=false

See the end of the first paragraph.

[Greed and Death]

The Chinese have come out for the Yes Vote.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/ ... endum.html

What the fuck did I just watch...

How RoC does news.

[The Archregimancy]

The final IPSOS-Mori poll released today shows 'No' with a fairly comfortable (but by no means sturdy) 53-47% lead, a 4% increase in No's lead since the same company's last poll. This also means most polling companies show a late break to No following the heavy shift to Yes after the second debate.

The same IPSOS-Mori poll suggests that less than a third of Scots are expecting a 'Yes' vote.

[Murkwood]

I was pleasently surprised by Gordon Brown's recent speech, putting the emotional/historic argument to the Yes campain, especialy since in the past he's appeared rather dull even by politician standards.

Wait wait wait... Did I catch that right? At 1:40, Gordon Brown says:

"From each according to his ability to contribute, to each according to his needs. And that is the best principle that can govern the life of our country today."

Holy shit. Gordon Brown has been possessed by the spirit of Karl Marx!

Well, at least now we know how he changed from a soulless robot to a firebrand orator so quickly.

That was the only part I didn't like. Then again, Scotland's Right is almost guaranteed to vote No, so Brown needs to appeal to Scotland's Left.

[Kouralia]

From Yesterday: Not an Onion headline: U.S. sends in the Marines on eve of Scottish referendum

Y'all thought I was joking.

[Dumb Ideologies]

The final IPSOS-Mori poll released today shows 'No' with a fairly comfortable (but by no means sturdy) 53-47% lead, a 4% increase in No's lead since the same company's last poll. This also means most polling companies show a late break to No following the heavy shift to Yes after the second debate.

The same IPSOS-Mori poll suggests that less than a third of Scots are expecting a 'Yes' vote.

Fingers crossed.

[Czechanada]

So are we taking bets on the outcome?

[Tsarist Chernigov]

Scotland Must Be Free!

[Dumb Ideologies]

Scotland Must Be Free!

There is freedom as part of the UK, you know.

[Elmerna]

So are we taking bets on the outcome?

If we are, then count me in for 25,000 NationStates fun bills for the Yes vote.

[Tsarist Chernigov]

Scotland Must Be Free!

There is freedom as part of the UK, you know.

I bet you didn't know that if Scotland gets independence,they will be one of the richest countries in the world.

[Napkiraly]

Apparently Andy Murray has come out in favour of independence. One wonders if he'll represent GB in the future.

[Dumb Ideologies]

There is freedom as part of the UK, you know.

I bet you didn't know that if Scotland gets independence,they will be one of the richest countries in the world.

That is both very much up for debate and also true in the case of remaining part of the UK.

[Tsarist Chernigov]

I bet you didn't know that if Scotland gets independence,they will be one of the richest countries in the world.

That is both very much up for debate and also true in the case of remaining part of the UK.

In many ways,yes you are right,and also in a way you are wrong.

[Organized States]

There is freedom as part of the UK, you know.

I bet you didn't know that if Scotland gets independence,they will be one of the richest countries in the world.

Yeah...

About that...

When the Germans and the Swiss are saying that the Economy in an independent Scotland will suck ass, they mean business.

[Napkiraly]

I bet you didn't know that if Scotland gets independence,they will be one of the richest countries in the world.

Yeah...

About that...

When the Germans and the Swiss are saying that the Economy in an independent Scotland will suck ass, they mean business.

Business leaders are saying it, leaders of well performing countries are saying it. Really, it should be obvious now.

[Organized States]

Also, it looks like some of Scotland's oil is jumping ship if Yes happens...

*whistles