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How Will Trump's Hush Money Trial End?

Guilty
15
48%
Not Guilty
7
23%
Hung Jury/Mistrial
8
26%
Other
1
3%
 
Total votes : 31

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Dakran
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Founded: Dec 06, 2012
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Dakran » Wed Mar 27, 2024 6:19 pm

The Jamesian Republic wrote:
Dakran wrote:Its the persona he puts on when he smokes a blunt


I wonder what speech by Biden would be like in that condition.

If its anything like me, he'll merge words together in new and funny ways
Trans flag here She/Her
01_EMBASSY_PROPOSE
WHAT WAS WILL BE, WHAT WILL BE WAS, WHAT WAS WILL BE, WHAT WILL BE WAS, WHAT WAS WILL BE, WHAT WILL BE WAS
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The Jamesian Republic
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Founded: Apr 28, 2020
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby The Jamesian Republic » Wed Mar 27, 2024 6:22 pm

Dakran wrote:
The Jamesian Republic wrote:
I wonder what speech by Biden would be like in that condition.

If its anything like me, he'll merge words together in new and funny ways


That would make the Biden has dementia claims seem more plausible
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The Black Forrest
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Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby The Black Forrest » Wed Mar 27, 2024 6:22 pm

Dakran wrote:
The Jamesian Republic wrote:
*Insert Flashback to When He Attempted to Repeal Obamacare*

Also Buden?

Its the persona he puts on when he smokes a blunt


If he smoked blunts, he wouldn’t be a nasty little fuckhead.
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* There is actually a War on Christmas. But Christmas started it, with it's unparalleled aggression against the Thanksgiving Holiday, and now Christmas has seized much Lebensraum in November, and are pushing into October. The rest of us seek to repel these invaders, and push them back to the status quo ante bellum Black Friday border. -Trotskylvania
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The Black Forrest
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Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby The Black Forrest » Wed Mar 27, 2024 6:23 pm

The Jamesian Republic wrote:
Dakran wrote:Its the persona he puts on when he smokes a blunt


I wonder what speech by Biden would be like in that condition.


He probably would lose control of his stutter. Which of course Trump would make fun of…..
*I am a master proofreader after I click Submit.
* There is actually a War on Christmas. But Christmas started it, with it's unparalleled aggression against the Thanksgiving Holiday, and now Christmas has seized much Lebensraum in November, and are pushing into October. The rest of us seek to repel these invaders, and push them back to the status quo ante bellum Black Friday border. -Trotskylvania
* Silence Is Golden But Duct Tape Is Silver.
* I felt like Ayn Rand cornered me at a party, and three minutes in I found my first objection to what she was saying, but she kept talking without interruption for ten more days. - Max Barry talking about Atlas Shrugged

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The Jamesian Republic
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Founded: Apr 28, 2020
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby The Jamesian Republic » Wed Mar 27, 2024 6:25 pm

The Black Forrest wrote:
The Jamesian Republic wrote:
I wonder what speech by Biden would be like in that condition.


He probably would lose control of his stutter. Which of course Trump would make fun of…..


True.
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Senkaku
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Founded: Sep 01, 2012
Corrupt Dictatorship

Postby Senkaku » Wed Mar 27, 2024 6:40 pm

https://newrepublic.com/article/179966/ ... rios-trump

There Are Four Postelection Scenarios, and Not One Is Good
It’s not too early to start gaming out scenarios. They range from bleak to hideous.

Last weekend Donald Trump told crowds at his Dayton rally, “Now if I don’t get elected, it’s gonna be a bloodbath for the whole—that’s gonna be the least of it. It’s going to be a bloodbath for the country, that will be the least of it.” This was at first blush a reference to auto industry sales, but a closer examination of the audio and the speech suggests he did intend it in a broader sense. It would certainly fit with the apocalyptic tone of his speeches and, previous, thinly veiled calls for violence before the January 6 insurrection. To me, it was simply confirmation that the 2024 election is going to come to a bad end, no matter the results at the polls.

I have something of a track record of predicting the outcomes of elections involving Trump. In 2016 immediately following the election, I predicted that Trump’s policies would lead to mass unrest, which happened in 2020, and state legislatures passing waves of anti-trans legislation, making much of the United States a no-go zone for trans people. In 2020, I not only correctly called that the aftermath of the election would be chaotic, but I also described what Trump would do to cause that chaos. With the candidates locked in for the 2024 election, the possible outcomes have snapped clearly into focus (and there are really only three or four, depending how you count them).

In December 2022, I published an article in The New Republic detailing four basic outcomes for the U.S. after the 2024 election: Descent Into Two Americas, Balkanization, Civil War, or Quiet Descent into Fascist Dictatorship. With the stage now set, we can more clearly see how we get to each based on the results at the ballot box. In the coming election, there are four realistic outcomes that depend on who ends up in the White House and how they get there:

1. Biden wins the popular vote and Electoral College, and Democrats win the House.
2. Biden wins the popular vote and Electoral College, and Republicans win the House.
3. Trump loses the popular vote but wins the Electoral College.
4. Trump wins the popular vote and the Electoral College.

There are other permutations of this, but their odds are remote enough that they do not merit discussion (e.g., Biden loses the popular vote and wins the Electoral College, or Democrats in the House refuse to certify an election that Donald Trump legitimately wins). So let’s look at each of these four and what sort of postelection horrors they’re likely to inflict on us.

Biden wins the popular vote and Electoral College, and Democrats win the House.

This is the best-case scenario for Democrats, and probably the country, and it looks like a repeat of 2020. Trump and Republicans will allege fraud and rigged elections. They’ll try to block certification at the county, state, and federal levels, resulting in court cases that generally go nowhere. Trump followers will be incited to violence, which is likely to be more successfully put down than January 6, 2021 (which had the element of surprise and a supportive president). Even if the Senate is controlled by Republicans, there are still enough institutionalists who will vote to certify when Congress meets in joint session on January 6, 2025, to certify the results. Minority Leader Mike Johnson may try to stop the incoming Democratic majority from being seated on January 3, but he probably won’t be able to because the Constitution doesn’t allow for him to refuse to do that.

Thus, after chaos that looks a lot like 2020 (only more intense, widespread, and gaining more support from state-level Republicans), Biden gets sworn in on January 20, 2025, to govern a nation where over half the states don’t accept his legitimacy. Red states will flout federal authority at every turn, daring a crackdown, much as Texas has done over Eagle Pass and immigration. The Supreme Court won’t do much to thwart Christian nationalists, who are increasingly calling for “dual sovereignty” and implementation of “a Scripture-based system of government whereby Christ-ordained ‘civil magistrates’ exercise authority over the American public.” Even if the Supreme Court rules against states that resist the federal government, they are likely to dare the Biden administration to actually enforce those rulings. Right-wing violence, like that described by Stephen Marche and Barbara F. Walter, is likely. The result is a United States that is one country in name only.

Biden wins the popular vote and Electoral College, and Republicans win the House.

If Biden wins the election but Republicans maintain control of the House of Representatives, it is very likely that Speaker Mike Johnson will refuse to certify the election, invoking the Twelfth Amendment to decide the election. This lets the House of Representatives—the one elected in November—determine the outcome, and each state gets one vote. That vote is decided by which party controls the majority of House seats elected by that state. Using that method, Republicans are virtually guaranteed to have 26 votes, and Trump becomes president. The only thing that might stop this is a few moderate Republicans in the House being unwilling to go along with such a plan, but most of them have already left. Remember: Two-thirds of Republicans in the House refused to vote to certify the election in 2020.

It’s also unlikely that the Supreme Court (which is already seen as illegitimate by a large percentage of the public after the shenanigans Republicans used to get a 6–3 majority, and after the Dobbs decision) will overturn this scheme, since it technically follows the rules. As a result, most people in blue states are likely to reject the legitimacy of the (gerrymandered) House Republican majority, the president, and the Supreme Court. Governors in blue states will be under intense pressure from their constituents, particularly those who fear for their lives if Trump takes power again, to reject the legitimacy of a Trump administration, much less give in to its extreme agenda.

This outcome results in the most intense “antibodies” being generated at the fastest rate possible. The immune system generates antibodies in response to a perceived viral or bacterial threat, and the greater the threat it perceives, the more vigorous the response is. So it is with political resistance: The more people perceive a second Trump administration to be an existential threat to their lives, the more they will resist.

Trump’s response will likely be to invoke the Insurrection Act and put down any resistance to his administration with the military. If this results in fatalities and mass detentions, it will probably only exacerbate the situation, leading to many people on both the left and right concluding that violence is the only viable option for change, resistance, or as a response to resistance. Right-wing elements have long been itching to use violence to put “those people” in their place. But the missing ingredient for a civil war is people on the left concluding that the only possible way to preserve themselves is violence. The outcome tilts toward the civil war scenario more than any of the other election outcomes.

Trump loses the popular vote but wins the Electoral College.

This is a repeat of the 2016 election. It will highlight the ongoing weaknesses of the Electoral College, having put Republicans who lost the popular vote in office again for the third time in three out of the last seven elections, and three out of the four total times that a Republican has won in that span. But it is a win without cheating or deliberately breaking the system. This will blunt the resistance to Trump, along with the belief that the government is illegitimate. There will be protests, to be sure, but so long as Trump doesn’t choose to have protesters massacred, they will fizzle out as they did in 2017.

This outcome is the hardest to predict. Trump will absolutely let his team attempt to implement Christian nationalism across the U.S. and use every means available to achieve its vision of an America with no immigrants, no trans people, no Muslims, no abortion, no birth control, Russian-style “Don’t Say Gay laws,” license to discriminate based on religion, and all government education funding going to religious schools. Blue states will try to resist this and invoke the same states’ rights and “dual sovereignty” arguments as red staters in scenario one, but it’s unlikely they will succeed due to conservative bias on the Supreme Court and the Trump administration’s willingness to blow off court rulings it doesn’t like.

If Trump goes straight to a massacre via the Insurrection Act, civil war is on the table. It’s highly unlikely that Trump and his Christian nationalist allies will allow a “soft secession,” but it’s possible that the U.S. balkanizes along many of the same lines that happen in scenario one, if blue state resistance is sufficiently strong and the federal government is unwilling to take steps that lead to the civil war outcome. If Trump manages to bring blue states to heel via legal means, and resistance is insufficient to compel blue state governors to refuse to comply, then we end up with option four: fascist, theocratic, hereditary dictatorship.

Trump wins the popular vote and the Electoral College.

If Trump wins the popular vote, he will also almost inevitably win the Electoral College, given how much it favors Republican candidates. If he wins this way, it will remove most discussion of whether his presidency is legitimate, when it clearly is based on the rules set forth by law and the Constitution. Certainly, his actions will be highly unpopular, but this outcome minimizes the antibodies raised against his administration. Certainly there will be protests, but as long as he doesn’t massacre protesters, it will be hard to convince anyone in Democratic leadership to reject the legitimacy of the federal government. Even most Democratic voters are likely to grudgingly admit the legitimacy of his second term, and this will dampen willingness to resist, even as Christian nationalism seeps in and democracy dies.

Perhaps the best modern example of a dictator riding out postelection protests is Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus, who arrested only protest leaders and just waited for the anger to subside. Trump would be wise to follow this model. Given Trump’s ties to Russia and respect for all things in the Russkiy Mir, he might be convinced to ignore his first instincts to crush protesters violently.

Trump will almost certainly do the things he promises regarding women’s rights, immigrants, LGBTQ people, the environment, and weaponizing the Department of Justice and FBI against Muslims, Dreamers, and anyone else against whom he’s promised vengeance. His government will absolutely spread this to all 50 states, but the perceived legitimacy of the regime, and the belief that “we’ll get ’em in 2028,” will prevent any real resistance. Republicans will pretend that free and fair elections in 2028 will absolutely happen, until they don’t. The government functionally becomes a competitive autocracy, much the same as Russia’s or Hungary’s. Elections are meaningless, other than serving as an anesthetic to public grievances.

For most people, life will be boring and tolerable. For the people targeted by the regime, it will not be easy to survive in the U.S. It will also lead to a wave of people (particularly trans individuals) attempting to flee to other countries. Corruption and graft will run rampant. The government will primarily serve the interests of Christian nationalists, and a tiered system of justice will become more and more apparent. Most people will decide that getting ahead in life (or keeping your head down) is better than asking pesky questions about where your transgender neighbor went. The result is a mix of the modern Hungarian political system, Russia-like apathy, and Nazi-esque zeal for creating a pure culture. As happened in all three of those countries, democracy dies with barely a whimper in this scenario.

Conclusion

No matter how I map it out, the election cycle either ends in chaos and violence, balkanization, or a descent into a modern theocratic fascist dystopia. There is no scenario in which everything turns out “just fine.” Even in my first scenario, the best case for Democrats (and democrats), nullification of Biden policies by red states is rampant, and the union slowly dissolves. The only scenario that results in a peaceful transfer of power is the one that leads almost inevitably toward the worst possible long-term outcome: a fascist nation, allied with the globe’s worst dictators, governed by religious fundamentalists yearning for Armageddon, while armed with enough strategic nuclear weapons to give God a run for his money.


This is more or less where I'm at, though I'd add a 5th scenario into the mix-- Biden squeaks out re-election, the Trump camp's ability to mount any sort of organized insurgency (legal, kinetic, or otherwise) proves overblown, and we get another 4 years of pretending COVID isn't happening, arming Israel to the teeth, tightening down the southern border, police budget increases in major cities, housing stagnation, and overhyped but underperforming environmental and industrial reforms, with liberals sinking into smug complacency while the right continues to radicalize; basically, a 4-year stay of execution for American democracy that just increases the pressure on all the contradictions we can already see within the structure of our regime. Whatever the outcome is, we won't get anyone with a credible plan to avoid a major crisis of imperial overreach in our foreign policy, a global environmental crisis, or the intensification of domestic political division and its accompanying institutional dysfunction. At this point I've pretty much thrown any idealistic hope for good political outcomes in my lifetime in the toilet; I'd just like to not get imprisoned, starved, tortured, or killed by whoever my fellow countrymen in their infinite lack of wisdom decide to coalesce behind.
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Deblar
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Posts: 5212
Founded: Jan 28, 2021
Left-wing Utopia

Postby Deblar » Wed Mar 27, 2024 6:48 pm

Dakran wrote:
The Jamesian Republic wrote:
*Insert Flashback to When He Attempted to Repeal Obamacare*

Also Buden?

Its the persona he puts on when he smokes a blunt

Nah, blunts would tone him down if anything

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Valles Marineris Mining co
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Posts: 3365
Founded: Apr 18, 2022
Left-Leaning College State

Postby Valles Marineris Mining co » Wed Mar 27, 2024 7:05 pm

Dakran wrote:
The Jamesian Republic wrote:
*Insert Flashback to When He Attempted to Repeal Obamacare*

Also Buden?

Its the persona he puts on when he smokes a blunt

Ladies and gentleman, Joe Buden: Image
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American Legionaries
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Founded: Nov 03, 2021
Scandinavian Liberal Paradise

Postby American Legionaries » Wed Mar 27, 2024 7:14 pm

Valles Marineris Mining co wrote:
Dakran wrote:Its the persona he puts on when he smokes a blunt

Ladies and gentleman, Joe Buden: Image


This guy would be a better president than Joe Biden.

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Shrillland
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Founded: Apr 12, 2010
Scandinavian Liberal Paradise

Postby Shrillland » Wed Mar 27, 2024 8:02 pm

Another measure joints the Plaza:

Georgia: They're also voting on a measure that would raise the states personal property tax exemption limit(for everything except vehicle, trailers, and mobile homes) to $20,000 from the current $7,500.
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Haganham
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Founded: Aug 17, 2021
Psychotic Dictatorship

Postby Haganham » Wed Mar 27, 2024 8:08 pm

Imagine reading a signature, but over the course of it the quality seems to deteriorate and it gets wose an wose, where the swenetence stwucture and gwammer rewerts to a pwoint of uttew non swence, an u jus dont wanna wead it anymwore (o´ω`o) awd twa wol owdewl iws jus awfwul (´・ω・`);. bwt tw sinawtur iwswnwt obwer nyet, it gwos own an own an own an own. uwu wanyaa stwop weadwing bwut uwu cwant stop wewding, uwu stwartd thwis awnd ur gwoing two fwinibsh it nowo mwattew wat! uwu hab mwoxie kwiddowo, bwut uwu wibl gwib ub sowon. i cwan wite wike dis fwor owors, swo dwont cwalengbe mii..

… wbats dis??? uwu awe stwill weedinb mwie sinatwr?? uwu habe awot ob detewemwinyanyatiom!! 。◕‿◕。! u habve comopweedid tha signwtr, good job!

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Narland
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Founded: Apr 19, 2013
Anarchy

Postby Narland » Wed Mar 27, 2024 8:15 pm

GMS Greater Miami Shores 1 wrote:
Valles Marineris Mining co wrote:That would be a massive plot twist

It would be awesome if President Trump is Jewish, President Trump is a strong supporter of Israel and the Jewish People like I am. President Trump even has Jewish Grand Kids in his Family.

Trump was raised Presbyterian with Norman Vincent Peale as his pastor. He was not a regular attendee, but that Peale was a big influence shows through. But not as much as that Dale Carnegie power tie, though. Os Guinness' business tact, and Ross Perot's politics shows as well but I digress. Trump recently left the PCA and now considers himself Non-Denominational.
Last edited by Narland on Wed Mar 27, 2024 8:25 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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La Xinga
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Founded: Jul 12, 2019
Father Knows Best State

Postby La Xinga » Wed Mar 27, 2024 8:44 pm

Ifreann wrote:
La Xinga wrote:Not always will charges be pressed, nor will judges & jury convict always on evidence, especially in NYC.

Oh yeah, prosecutors love to walk away from cases they can win. And judges and juries are well known to deliberately acquit the guilty for the luls. Come on, man, what kind of fantasy world are you living in? If the cops had a case in even one of those arrests then this guy would have one more conviction.

Not necessarily. The district attorney is an elected position, and are known to be at the center of the "letting the crims off too easily" discussion. And I never suggested "deliberately acquit the guilty for the luls", of course. More like deliberately acquit the guilty for some notion of social justice. Even blue San Francisco recalled their district attorney. Not saying that's what happened here; would be much better if we had access to what happened in all of these "21 arrests", but I'm not too sure everyone is seeking to put people behind bars if they believe they can, especially in NY.
I don't distrust the police that much to think that different officers decided to pick on this guy specifically while leaving everyone else alone, but if convictions make something true, then he did, well, commit first-degree assault.

Where'd you get the idea that while the NYPD was arresting this guy over and over that they were leaving everyone else alone? They have thousands of officers, plenty available to make all kinds of bullshit arrests.

All targeting this one innocent guy while not arresting the other New Yorkers twenty-one times. The guy convicted of first-degree assault was an innocent man nineteen times he got arrested? Was there some conspiracy in the NYPD to target this random dude specifically? Do other New Yorkers get arrested nineteen times for nothing?
Not really what I was asking.

I see; why'd it end ten years ago?

I'd guess because he got sentenced to something in or around three years. Are you just now learning that prison sentences are almost always temporary?

Not what I was asking. Why was he sentenced to three years?

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Saiwana
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Founded: Mar 12, 2023
Father Knows Best State

Postby Saiwana » Wed Mar 27, 2024 9:21 pm

Migrant influencer Leonel Moreno, who encouraged mass squatting by illegal immigrants has allegedly had his TikTok account suspended, is boohooing about the hole he dug himself into. This is quite the spectacle. Is he a right wing plant to expose the idiocy and flawed policies of Biden administration on border policy or is he an opportunist that seized on a political moment but single handedly blew it up running his mouth?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... s-ice.html
Last edited by Saiwana on Wed Mar 27, 2024 9:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Trump Almighty
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Founded: Dec 07, 2022
Compulsory Consumerist State

Postby Trump Almighty » Wed Mar 27, 2024 10:01 pm

Saiwana wrote:Migrant influencer Leonel Moreno, who encouraged mass squatting by illegal immigrants has allegedly had his TikTok account suspended, is boohooing about the hole he dug himself into. This is quite the spectacle. Is he a right wing plant to expose the idiocy and flawed policies of Biden administration on border policy or is he an opportunist that seized on a political moment but single handedly blew it up running his mouth?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... s-ice.html


This is a BIG WIN for Law & Order and LOSS for TikTok and the Chinese Communist Party. I will fight for the rights of homeowners across America and make squatting illegal. Joe Biden is Out of Touch with Hardworking Americans and has chosen to funnel our wealth into Ukraine, and not our citizens. VOTE Him OUT!
Last edited by Trump Almighty on Wed Mar 27, 2024 10:08 pm, edited 6 times in total.
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The Jamesian Republic
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Founded: Apr 28, 2020
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby The Jamesian Republic » Thu Mar 28, 2024 5:48 am

Trump ALMIGHTY wrote:
Saiwana wrote:Migrant influencer Leonel Moreno, who encouraged mass squatting by illegal immigrants has allegedly had his TikTok account suspended, is boohooing about the hole he dug himself into. This is quite the spectacle. Is he a right wing plant to expose the idiocy and flawed policies of Biden administration on border policy or is he an opportunist that seized on a political moment but single handedly blew it up running his mouth?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... s-ice.html


This is a BIG WIN for Law & Order and LOSS for TikTok and the Chinese Communist Party. I will fight for the rights of homeowners across America and make squatting illegal. Joe Biden is Out of Touch with Hardworking Americans and has chosen to funnel our wealth into Ukraine, and not our citizens. VOTE Him OUT!


Ukraine is a bastion of anti-imperialism.
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Zurkerx
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Founded: Jan 20, 2011
Anarchy

Postby Zurkerx » Thu Mar 28, 2024 5:56 am

Celritannia wrote:
Zurkerx wrote:Also, if it wasn't clear that Trump is vowing to go after his enemies, it should be clear now: Trump and his allies are cooking up novel legal schemes to target Letitia James. This would likely include other people should he win the White House. One of the methods include sending the DOJ after James for Election Interference:

Behind the scenes, various lawyers in the MAGA upper crust — including several close to the former president — have been crafting specific, novel legal schemes that a Justice Department could use to go after the New York prosecutor, three people familiar with the matter tell Rolling Stone. One such proposal, two sources say, would involve accusing James of attempting to illegally interfere in the 2024 presidential race — an argument that would certainly be rich coming from Trump, who has been indicted at the federal and state levels over his attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 election.

In recent months, according to two of the sources, a number of legal theories and plans of attack against James have been briefed to Trump, the presumptive 2024 GOP presidential nominee, who has privately responded approvingly, sometimes enthusiastically. In some instances, the ex-president has been emphatic that these kinds of prosecutions need to happen in order to restore a sense of so-called “law and order” in New York and the rest of the United States, one source familiar with the situation recalls.


So, as we should say, Trump's idea of law and order is basically him seeking revenge.


Trump is an enemy of democracy, plain and simple.


It is clear, but with RFK Jr. running, it does make it tougher for Democrats to win now. That said, I do think if they define RFK Jr. well, they can get back some of their voters. Plus, third parties tend to lose steam - and I think that will be the case come November. He will get 5% at least though.
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Zurkerx
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Anarchy

Postby Zurkerx » Thu Mar 28, 2024 6:33 am

A new Quinnipiac poll shows Biden leads Trump 48% to 45%, but when third parties are included, Trump leads 39% to 38%.

Biden is the one that benefits from this loss: in a two way race, he wins 94% of the Democratic vote; with third parties, it falls to 81%. 5% points go between Stein and West, both who almost certainly won't get that support come November. Kennedy gets 9% points, which makes him a prime target to get Democratic voters back. Trump goes from 92% of Republicans to 86%.

Third parties also hurt Biden's and Trump's standing with Independent voters: Biden leads Trump 48% to 41% and still does with Independent voters 33% to 31%, but that represents a 15% and 10% point drop for the candidates, with Kennedy getting 20% of Independents and Stein (5%) and West (6%).

This makes it paramount for both campaigns to not only retain voters, but to win them back, especially for Biden, who has more to lose here.

Interestingly, 52% support sending military aid to Ukraine but 52% oppose doing so for Israel (43% feel not enough is being done to address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza). Immigration is the most important issue:

Given a list of 10 issues and asked which is the most urgent one facing the country today, immigration (26 percent) ranks first among voters followed by the economy (20 percent) and preserving democracy in the United States (18 percent). No other issue reached double digits. This marks the first time that immigration has ranked as the top issue in this election cycle.
Last edited by Zurkerx on Thu Mar 28, 2024 6:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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The Jamesian Republic
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Posts: 14588
Founded: Apr 28, 2020
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby The Jamesian Republic » Thu Mar 28, 2024 6:35 am

Zurkerx wrote:A new Quinnipiac poll shows Biden leads Trump 48% to 45%, but when third parties are included, Trump leads 39% to 38%.

Biden is the one that benefits from this loss: in a two way race, he wins 94% of the Democratic vote; with third parties, it falls to 81%. 5% points go between Stein and West, both who almost certainly won't get that support come November. Kennedy gets 9% points, which makes him a prime target to get Democratic voters back. Trump goes from 92% of Republicans to 86%.

Third parties also hurt Biden's and Trump's standing with Independent voters: Biden leads Trump 48% to 41% and still does with Independent voters 33% to 31%, but that represents a 15% and 10% point drop for the candidates, with Kennedy getting 20% of Independents and Stein (5%) and West (6%).

This makes it paramount for both campaigns to not only retain voters, but to win them back, especially for Biden, who has more to lose here.

Interestingly, 52% support sending military aid to Ukraine but 52% oppose doing so for Israel (43% feel not enough is being done to address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza). Immigration is the most important issue:

Given a list of 10 issues and asked which is the most urgent one facing the country today, immigration (26 percent) ranks first among voters followed by the economy (20 percent) and preserving democracy in the United States (18 percent). No other issue reached double digits. This marks the first time that immigration has ranked as the top issue in this election cycle.


There’s still time to turn things around. However with the third party scenario Biden doesn’t have a wide margin to catch up with so if he plays it right he can overtake Trump and stay there.
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Zurkerx
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Postby Zurkerx » Thu Mar 28, 2024 7:10 am

The Jamesian Republic wrote:
Zurkerx wrote:A new Quinnipiac poll shows Biden leads Trump 48% to 45%, but when third parties are included, Trump leads 39% to 38%.

Biden is the one that benefits from this loss: in a two way race, he wins 94% of the Democratic vote; with third parties, it falls to 81%. 5% points go between Stein and West, both who almost certainly won't get that support come November. Kennedy gets 9% points, which makes him a prime target to get Democratic voters back. Trump goes from 92% of Republicans to 86%.

Third parties also hurt Biden's and Trump's standing with Independent voters: Biden leads Trump 48% to 41% and still does with Independent voters 33% to 31%, but that represents a 15% and 10% point drop for the candidates, with Kennedy getting 20% of Independents and Stein (5%) and West (6%).

This makes it paramount for both campaigns to not only retain voters, but to win them back, especially for Biden, who has more to lose here.

Interestingly, 52% support sending military aid to Ukraine but 52% oppose doing so for Israel (43% feel not enough is being done to address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza). Immigration is the most important issue:

Given a list of 10 issues and asked which is the most urgent one facing the country today, immigration (26 percent) ranks first among voters followed by the economy (20 percent) and preserving democracy in the United States (18 percent). No other issue reached double digits. This marks the first time that immigration has ranked as the top issue in this election cycle.


There’s still time to turn things around. However with the third party scenario Biden doesn’t have a wide margin to catch up with so if he plays it right he can overtake Trump and stay there.


There is, and we can expect that by Biden. But how effective he will be remains to be seen. Then there's Trump's trials, which for this Manhattan case, while 55% said it won't effect their vote, 29% did say it would make them less likely to vote for him. So, if that holds true, it would be interesting to see where those voters go.
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Postby Hidrandia » Thu Mar 28, 2024 7:12 am

What are the odds that Mike Johnson gets vacated as speaker?
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Postby HISPIDA » Thu Mar 28, 2024 7:21 am

The Black Forrest wrote:
Temple of the computer2 wrote:some dude who was Al Gore's VP vice president pick has died.


That “some dude” was Joe Lieberman.

oh no!
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Postby The Jamesian Republic » Thu Mar 28, 2024 7:43 am

Zurkerx wrote:
The Jamesian Republic wrote:
There’s still time to turn things around. However with the third party scenario Biden doesn’t have a wide margin to catch up with so if he plays it right he can overtake Trump and stay there.


There is, and we can expect that by Biden. But how effective he will be remains to be seen. Then there's Trump's trials, which for this Manhattan case, while 55% said it won't effect their vote, 29% did say it would make them less likely to vote for him. So, if that holds true, it would be interesting to see where those voters go.


A very valuable 29%…
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Ifreann
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Postby Ifreann » Thu Mar 28, 2024 8:00 am

La Xinga wrote:
Ifreann wrote:Oh yeah, prosecutors love to walk away from cases they can win. And judges and juries are well known to deliberately acquit the guilty for the luls. Come on, man, what kind of fantasy world are you living in? If the cops had a case in even one of those arrests then this guy would have one more conviction.

Not necessarily. The district attorney is an elected position, and are known to be at the center of the "letting the crims off too easily" discussion. And I never suggested "deliberately acquit the guilty for the luls", of course. More like deliberately acquit the guilty for some notion of social justice. Even blue San Francisco recalled their district attorney. Not saying that's what happened here; would be much better if we had access to what happened in all of these "21 arrests", but I'm not too sure everyone is seeking to put people behind bars if they believe they can, especially in NY.

Ah, so you're proposing a decades long conspiracy involving the DA's office, state judges, and the general public, all working to set the guilty free because something something sjws. And this is a more plausible explanation to you than the cops just being assholes.

Where'd you get the idea that while the NYPD was arresting this guy over and over that they were leaving everyone else alone? They have thousands of officers, plenty available to make all kinds of bullshit arrests.

All targeting this one innocent guy while not arresting the other New Yorkers twenty-one times. The guy convicted of first-degree assault was an innocent man nineteen times he got arrested? Was there some conspiracy in the NYPD to target this random dude specifically? Do other New Yorkers get arrested nineteen times for nothing?

Yeah, I'm sure they do. Probably the New Yorkers who aren't white most of all.

I'd guess because he got sentenced to something in or around three years. Are you just now learning that prison sentences are almost always temporary?

Not what I was asking. Why was he sentenced to three years?

As opposed to what? Life? Death?
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Postby Haganham » Thu Mar 28, 2024 8:13 am

Ifreann wrote:
La Xinga wrote:Not necessarily. The district attorney is an elected position, and are known to be at the center of the "letting the crims off too easily" discussion. And I never suggested "deliberately acquit the guilty for the luls", of course. More like deliberately acquit the guilty for some notion of social justice. Even blue San Francisco recalled their district attorney. Not saying that's what happened here; would be much better if we had access to what happened in all of these "21 arrests", but I'm not too sure everyone is seeking to put people behind bars if they believe they can, especially in NY.

Ah, so you're proposing a decades long conspiracy involving the DA's office, state judges, and the general public, all working to set the guilty free because something something sjws. And this is a more plausible explanation to you than the cops just being assholes.

Conspiracies are secret.
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Last edited by Haganham on Thu Mar 28, 2024 8:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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